Seahawks favorites after 50,000 computer simulations

Using an astounding array of analytics, the Predictalator on PredictionMachine.com ran 50,000 simulations of Super Bowl XLIX. And 57.5 percent of the time in its simulations, the Seattle Seahawks beat the New England Patriots.

And from these tens of thousands of simulations, the site has the Seahawks most likely winning by a 24-20 score.

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http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutd ... 52004.html

The same system also predicted that Seattle would win last year, despite the general public betting overwhelmingly on Denver. Déjà vu.

That's not a wide difference from a coin toss.

Interesting. That's the exact same score and outcome I had floating around in my head. I'm hoping that it ends up being a bit more of a lopsided Hawks win, but really feel like the Predictalator is right on the money with this one.

chris98251":2tnxzuzq said:

That's not a wide difference from a coin toss.

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Simulations and projections tend to err on the side of caution. For example, it's very rare for Football Outsiders or Las Vegas to project any team for 11 wins or more before a season, even the super elite teams are usually projected for 10 or 10.5.

A 57-43 edge over 50k simulations is actually a fairly substantial gap for a SB matchup of #1 seeds.

chris98251":2h1cunbw said:

That's not a wide difference from a coin toss.

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Think of it more like a presidential election, a 14 point margin would be a pretty good win. Focus on the percentage, not the score prediction. Probably a good chunk of those simulations were comfortable Seattle wins.

Sherman hurt. They cheat. But I think we got it even if we have to kick 8 fgs.

The week 17 Buffalo game where NE had half it's starters out skewed the statistical advantage towards Seattle.

Good thing these things are irrelevant though.

BTW what's the standard error? I don't see it specified.

PowerRun":3w5cnk4g said:

The week 17 Buffalo game where NE had half it's starters out skewed the statistical advantage towards Seattle.

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The Patriots DVOA barely budged after their garbage time loss to Buffalo. It probably hurt their numbers in this simulation, but not by a significant amount.

PowerRun":3w5cnk4g said:

Good thing these things are irrelevant though.

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Correct. The game on Sunday is all that matters. I just think that it's interesting what the computers think, since computer projections tend to be more accurate than most humans. I know that Vegas relies heavily on technology to help them set their opening lines, and in each of the last two SBs their algorithms told them to start Seattle at -2.5.

I am waiting for the animal predictions before wagering.....

PowerRun":3u4p4zci said:

The week 17 Buffalo game where NE had half it's starters out skewed the statistical advantage towards Seattle.

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Did the starters play in weeks 7 & 16, when the Pats only beat the pathetic Jets by 2 & 1 points, respectively?

I wonder if that skewed anything...

DohBoy":2in0kx5d said:

PowerRun":2in0kx5d said:

The week 17 Buffalo game where NE had half it's starters out skewed the statistical advantage towards Seattle.

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Did the starters play in weeks 7 & 16, when the Pats only beat the pathetic Jets by 2 & 1 points, respectively?

I wonder if that skewed anything...

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Probably. The Jets usually play us tough. Even during the SB years.

They've got an exceptional Dline. Good thing NE won't have to worry about that on Sunday.

PowerRun":ld91rxa4 said:

DohBoy":ld91rxa4 said:

PowerRun":ld91rxa4 said:

The week 17 Buffalo game where NE had half it's starters out skewed the statistical advantage towards Seattle.

Click to expand...

Did the starters play in weeks 7 & 16, when the Pats only beat the pathetic Jets by 2 & 1 points, respectively?

I wonder if that skewed anything...

Click to expand...

Probably. The Jets usually play us tough. Even during the SB years.

They've got an exceptional Dline. Good thing NE won't have to worry about that on Sunday.

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Similar to us worrying about a non-mobile QB and an average RB?

Hawk_Nation":7p9j619d said:

PowerRun":7p9j619d said:

DohBoy":7p9j619d said:

PowerRun":7p9j619d said:

The week 17 Buffalo game where NE had half it's starters out skewed the statistical advantage towards Seattle.

Click to expand...

Did the starters play in weeks 7 & 16, when the Pats only beat the pathetic Jets by 2 & 1 points, respectively?

I wonder if that skewed anything...

Click to expand...

Probably. The Jets usually play us tough. Even during the SB years.

They've got an exceptional Dline. Good thing NE won't have to worry about that on Sunday.

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Similar to us worrying about a non-mobile QB and an average RB?

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Sure, you don't have to worry about a mobile QB. Only the winningest QB in playoff history that holds postseason records in TDs, yards, completions.

As for average RB...

Blount has two 100 yard games THIS YEAR, and oh no that .04 extra yards per rush is going to be a game changer. :mrgreen:

Ill take the 3rd ranked rushing defense against the 18th overall rushing offense ANYDAY.

Troll on.

PowerRun":5eedzq2f said:

As for average RB...

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Blount is so amazing that I'm sure you'd take him over Lynch straight up if you had a chance to pick one of them in a critical game. Future Hall of Famer to be sure.

They only use Blount when the match-up is favorable. They're more than happy to let him ride the pine if the run game isn't going. If he's better than average, he doesn't sit for huge chunks of important games.

Marshawn plays. 8-or-9 man boxes, doesn't matter. He sees it every play. Comparing YAC numbers of the two is remarkably short-sighted. They see completely different defenses. Come on, man. Hit us with better arguments.

Football Outsiders gives the Patriots a 50.5% chance to win, with the Seahawks obviously having a 49.5% chance.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

Considering the fact that we're not as bad as we spent most of the last game being, and the Patriots aren't as good as they spent most of their last game being, I feel pretty good about it.

Also, I'm going to laugh my ass off if we force like three fumbles this Sunday. It would look so bad in terms of DeflateGate. NFL starts handling the Patriots' balls and they fumble a ton? ROFL.

I never claimed Blount was better than Lynch. Perhaps you became sensitive because the stats show that he has a higher yards after contact not only this season but since 2010.

He's a power running back and excels at gaining yards after contact. That's above average. He's just another example of the versatility of the team that allows us to game plan for specific opponents. We can pass, pound the ball up the middle, our run to the outside with Vereen. Given Seattle's vulnerability up the middle, Blount will be used a lot this game.

BTW, we've played Lynch when he was in Buffalo. He was never really a factor against us.

Did someone really say the Jets D-line is better than Seattle's? According to FO, they are basically dead even, with Seattle being more slanted towards run stopping.

I like the Patriots, but I have never seen a less informed fanbase invade this place. I guess in the AFC East you can just point to Brady and Belichick any time someone talks shit. You have to try a little harder than that around here.

PowerRun":3s6km568 said:

BTW, we've played Lynch when he was in Buffalo. He was never really a factor against us.

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:0190l: Nothing to see here, move along. :roll: