An outstanding comment following the article:
"You don't get to decide from the outcome if the call was right. There is 1) the call, 2) the execution of the call and 3) what the other team does.
Base rate and Bayesian probabilities need to compliment game theory. Lynch had 5 chances during the season to go 1 yd for a TD and he was stopped 4 of the 5 times. Why isn't anyone mentioning that?
Also, what is the probability of an interception (the only really bad outcome for Seattle) on this type of short slant play? It has to be low because it is such a fast play.
Therefore, in my opinion, it was a very good call.
Then there is the execution of that call. The throw was too far in front and the receiver did not turn his shoulders to block out the defender. So the execution was far from perfect.
Finally, there is the defense of whatever call the offense makes. Browner and Butler had done their homework. They saw the stack and thought "this is a pick play." Browner blew up Kearse so he couldn't run his pick on Butler. Butler saw their stacked receivers and he thought "slant play." Then he said he saw Wilson look that way...and he knew it was a "slant." Then, partially because of the Seahawk's execution, but also his preparation, his "read" and his athleticism, Butler jumped the route and took the ball away from the Seattle receiver.
I think Carrol made a perfectly defensible call. I think Seattle executed it poorly. And I think an unsung rookie made the play of his life."
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/03/upsho ... 0002&abg=1
"You don't get to decide from the outcome if the call was right. There is 1) the call, 2) the execution of the call and 3) what the other team does.
Base rate and Bayesian probabilities need to compliment game theory. Lynch had 5 chances during the season to go 1 yd for a TD and he was stopped 4 of the 5 times. Why isn't anyone mentioning that?
Also, what is the probability of an interception (the only really bad outcome for Seattle) on this type of short slant play? It has to be low because it is such a fast play.
Therefore, in my opinion, it was a very good call.
Then there is the execution of that call. The throw was too far in front and the receiver did not turn his shoulders to block out the defender. So the execution was far from perfect.
Finally, there is the defense of whatever call the offense makes. Browner and Butler had done their homework. They saw the stack and thought "this is a pick play." Browner blew up Kearse so he couldn't run his pick on Butler. Butler saw their stacked receivers and he thought "slant play." Then he said he saw Wilson look that way...and he knew it was a "slant." Then, partially because of the Seahawk's execution, but also his preparation, his "read" and his athleticism, Butler jumped the route and took the ball away from the Seattle receiver.
I think Carrol made a perfectly defensible call. I think Seattle executed it poorly. And I think an unsung rookie made the play of his life."
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/03/upsho ... 0002&abg=1
