1 yd. line: The numbers

All stats are for this season (excluding the final play of the Super Bowl) from the 1 yd. line. Any down.

Passes from the 1 yd line happened 108 times for 66 TD's and 0 INTs. 61% success rate

Seattle had 2 attempts for 1 TD. 50% success rate was below average.

NE gave up 1 TD on one pass. 100%.

223 rushes led to 129 TD's and 2 Fumbles. 58% success rate. 1% disaster rate. With two tries odds of success on average is 78%.

Seattle had 7 rushes for 3TD's, 0 Fumbles. 43% success rate is below league average. With two attempts, the odds of success are 68%.

NE gave up 5 TD's on 6 stands at the 1 yd line. 83% success rate makes them almost nonexistent at the goal line vs the rush. With two attempts, odds of punching it in against NE are 97%.

So here's the thing: League wide, a pass play is slightly more likely to score than a run, but the difference is negligible. NE, however, was passed upon once and rushed on 6 times. Overall they gave up 6 TD's on 7 1 yd. stands. We have all of one pass play to judge their goal line defense by because they have a great secondary so teams RAN THE GODDAMN BALL 86% of the time with an 83% success rate.

NINETY SEVEN % CHANCE that handing the ball to Lynch two times in a row results in WIN.

That's just based upon crappy NE defense ALONE. Not accounting for Beast Mode being unstoppable. Even if you down grade those odds to Seattle's chances to execute, you have 68% chance of success on two straight rushes.

Those are both small sample sized, but league wide, the chances are 78%. Factor in Beast Mode and a NE defense that was like butter at the one yard line, those odds have to be about 99%.

Ninety times out of one hundred, we win the Super Bowl with two tries for Lynch to punch it in.

I think the big thing though is what were those passes that led to the high success rate? A lot of times the goal line passes are the fake hand off, loft it to a tight end in the back of the endzone. Don't throw it in the middle of a frickin' pile of people.

Yeah I'm getting tired of hearing this thing about Marshawn's goal line stats for example. So because one of the stoutest line teams (KC) stopped Marshawn on the goal line when Unger was injured, that necessarily means the worst power rushing defense in the league is going to stop him from getting 6 inches on 3 tries?

I'm hearing a lot of this at work (I live 2000 miles from Seattle) as people desperately try to make it look like the Pats won more than we lost.

And the Pats defensive line was tired at the end of the game, just as always when we have a good rushing game. They had almost no chance of stopping us on the ground. Lynch goes to one side, or Russ keeps and scrambles to the other, giving them two good runners to stop.

gulliver":3997rpu4 said:

Yeah I'm getting tired of hearing this thing about Marshawn's goal line stats for example. So because one of the stoutest line teams (KC) stopped Marshawn on the goal line when Unger was injured, that necessarily means the worst power rushing defense in the league is going to stop him from getting 6 inches on 3 tries?

I'm hearing a lot of this at work (I live 2000 miles from Seattle) as people desperately try to make it look like the Pats won more than we lost.

Click to expand...

And what about being stuffed in the 3rd quarter drive that resulted in a FG. IIRC we tried running it down their throats and got stopped. What about that?

jlwaters1":5jh3abam said:

gulliver":5jh3abam said:

Yeah I'm getting tired of hearing this thing about Marshawn's goal line stats for example. So because one of the stoutest line teams (KC) stopped Marshawn on the goal line when Unger was injured, that necessarily means the worst power rushing defense in the league is going to stop him from getting 6 inches on 3 tries?

I'm hearing a lot of this at work (I live 2000 miles from Seattle) as people desperately try to make it look like the Pats won more than we lost.

Click to expand...

And what about being stuffed in the 3rd quarter drive that resulted in a FG. IIRC we tried running it down their throats and got stopped. What about that?

Click to expand...

Let's rely on an undrafted #4 WR instead of our star players.

What does this prove? If you believe Carroll, they were planning to hand the ball to Lynch for two attempts on 3rd and 4th down. Your stats show that turning the ball over on a pass was nearly impossible (even w/ a good sample size). Ergo, throwing on second shouldn't have hurt them. You still get the great probabilities of a score, low likelihood of turnover, but you also get one more shot since an incomplete pass kills the clock.

These stats are only relevant if Carroll had no intention of running on 3rd and 4th down.

That being said, I'm like everyone, I wish they just ran it and stayed away from analysis of probabilities. Overthinking these numbers is what got them in trouble. It doesn't prove they were wrong.

gulliver":2onp7hz7 said:

Yeah I'm getting tired of hearing this thing about Marshawn's goal line stats for example. So because one of the stoutest line teams (KC) stopped Marshawn on the goal line when Unger was injured, that necessarily means the worst power rushing defense in the league is going to stop him from getting 6 inches on 3 tries?

I'm hearing a lot of this at work (I live 2000 miles from Seattle) as people desperately try to make it look like the Pats won more than we lost.

Click to expand...

Really? Why would anybody that's a fan of the patriots or anybody that just hates seattle be trying to "desperately" make it look like the pats won more than seattle lost? The fact is the patriots did win. So nobody has to make it look like anything. That is exactly what happened. The seahawks lost, the patriots won.

It took a miracle play to even put the seahawks in the great position to win the game. They had a chance, but the patriots made a play, to win the game. If the seahawks run the ball do they win? Maybe... Nobody knows for sure and it really doesn't matter now. But what if they never make that miraculous catch to begin with? What if brady doesn't throw two picks? I mean, we can play the what if game all day long. Fact of the matter is the patriots made more plays than seattle and they deserved to win that game. Seattle will be back tho. Maybe not next year but as long as they keep lynch they should be back soon.

All I know is what i see. Lynch near the goaline is tough to stop. His previous TD in the game went like this.

1st down 5 yds
2nd down 3 yds
3rd down 3 yds TD!!!

Momentum was on our side. It is the very end of the game. The D was scrambling and tired. The big catch by Kearse to get us to the 5, Lynch had just gained 4 yds to get us to the 1. Keep them on there heels and run the ball. That is who we are, that is our identity and we went away from that.

Some people are trying to justify it with stats.... Just like I'm sure Bevell did ......but before this game how many times has RW thrown a slant from the 1 to Lockette? None! He has 18 career receptions, not known for his clutch play, toughness or hands. No matter how many times you add it up THIS was not the time or the player to run this play.

You can still throw all stats and percentages completely out the window.. In that situation lynch gets the TD. 100% chance.
Situationally, It was the perfect scenario or him to punch it in.
Seahawks coaches and our QB screwed the pooch.

Daytomann":1s6vlslm said:

You can still throw all stats and percentages completely out the window.. In that situation lynch gets the TD. 100% chance.......

Click to expand...

Well.....I wouldn't go THAT far!!! :shock:

DavidSeven":2sy96xjh said:

What does this prove? If you believe Carroll, they were planning to hand the ball to Lynch for two attempts on 3rd and 4th down. Your stats show that turning the ball over on a pass was nearly impossible (even w/ a good sample size). Ergo, throwing on second shouldn't have hurt them. You still get the great probabilities of a score, low likelihood of turnover, but you also get one more shot since an incomplete pass kills the clock.

These stats are only relevant if Carroll had no intention of running on 3rd and 4th down.

That being said, I'm like everyone, I wish they just ran it and stayed away from analysis of probabilities. Overthinking these numbers is what got them in trouble. It doesn't prove they were wrong.

Click to expand...

With Belicheck not taking a timeout, the clock was running down to 30 seconds and a decision had to be made -- take a timeout? [ No way - there would only be enough time for one run, and if stopped, a hurry-up pass and maybe another and maybe not] - run the ball? [ Pats have their heavy D in, so their situation against the run is optimized and if no TD, the Hawks have to take a timeout which allows the Pats to optimize their D again] -- pass [ 3 plays are guaranteed with the Hawks being able to choose their formations w/o time pressure].

BB not taking the timeout was the key.

I saw the same stats the OP spoke of wen I was waiting for my flight home. Of all of those 108 pass attempts from the 1. There was only 1 interception - Wilson's on Sunday.

SEAHAWKBLITZ":2gu46yne said:

I saw the same stats the OP spoke of wen I was waiting for my flight home. Of all of those 108 pass attempts from the 1. There was only 1 interception - Wilson's on Sunday.

Click to expand...

Whatever cherry picked stats chosen to make a claim that the pass was the right call are simply wrong.
Running the ball with best YAC RB in the league from the half yard line was the safer and correct call if they have 14 men in the box. A pass isn't worth the risk, especially one into traffic. The justification by some of a horrible play call is just baffling.

Pete placed way too much importance on getting use of all 4 downs. It was like he lacked confidence that his team could score in 2 downs and that they would need all 3.

He still over thinks things, as does Bevell. When it comes down to win or lose in the Superbowl, you put it in the hands of your best player!!!

In a high pressure situation, you DO NOT put it on 2 UDFA Wide Receivers AGAINST 2 of the TOUGHEST DBs in the game and a young DB that's been playing lights out all game.

Pete blows off some very important considerations, like the San Diego game. "Well they have to play in that heat too." Really? They are used to that heat and wearing light colored uniforms! There's a difference! That's why people were getting IVs and other people were holding whiteboards over the players for shade!! How is that being prepared?

Having said all that, I would not want another coach in the league for my team. And Pete believes in the philosophy of being better every day. So he will take those lessons to heart and they won't be an issue in the future.

I feel awesome now.

I think there is to much emphasis put on this play even though if we score
We probably win the game. The offense gave us a ten point lead and then
Brady hit 17 of 18 passes in the 4th quarter to take the lead. The LOB fell
Right on their faces. Was it because we were playing the prevent defense
Or was it because our injured LOB just ran out of steam or were to sore?
IMO that's where we lost this game. But we did have a chance at the end.:-(