Post FA/Pre Draft Roster

Just a little excercise to evaluate holes. Probably nothing earth shattering, but it may help those who think we don't "need" 11 or more draft picks . . .

Starting Locks (19)
QB Russell Wilson
RB Marshawn Lynch
WR Doug Baldwin
TE Jimmy Graham
LT Russell Okung,
RT Justin Britt
RG JR Sweezy
5TDE Michael Bennett
LEO Cliff Avril
OLB KJ Wright
OLB Bruce Irvin
MLB Bobby Wagner
CB Richard Sherman
CB Cary Williams
FS Earl Thomas
SS Kam Chancellor
LS Clint Gresham
P John Ryan
K Steven haushka

Depth Locks (11)
RB Robert Turbin
RB Christine Michael
WR Paul Richardson (PUP)
OL Alvin Bailey (jack of all trades)
OC Patirck Lewis (currently the only viable center on the roster)
DE Cassius Marsh
DT Jordan Hill
DT Atyhba Rubin
OLB Kevin Pierre Lewis
CB Jeremy Lane (PUP)
CB Tharold Simon

Possible keepers/possible cap casualties (2)
DT Brandon Mebane
DT Tony McDaniel

That's 30 locks, plus 2 guys who could be on the team, could not . . .

Established Bubble Players (13) - guys whose names are known but could be pressed with competition
QB BJ Daniels
FB Derrick Coleman
WR Jermaine Kearse
WR Kevin Norwood
WR Ricardo Lockett
WR Chris Matthews
TE Anthony McCoy
TE Cooper Helfelt
OT Garry Gilliams
DE Greg Scruggs
MLB Brock Croyle
CB Will Blackmon
CB Marcus Burley

Add those guys in, and you really are still looking at 43-45 known quanities for, what, 53 roster spots?

Bottom of the Roster (26)
QB RJ Archer
RB Demetrius Bronson
WR Douglas McNeil
WR Kevin Smith
WR David Galreath
TE Keavon Milton
TE Raushaun Allen
G Nate Isles
G Drew Nowak
G Jared Wheeler
C CJ Davis
DE Ryan Robinson
DE Will Pericak
DE David King
DT Jesse Williams
DT Justin Renforw
DT jimmy Staten
DT Justin Warmsley
MLB Brock Croyle
MLB Michael Zimmer
OLB Brendon Kelly
OLB Mike Taylor
S Eric Pinkins
S Dion Bailey
S Deshawn Shead
S Steven Terrell

Just looking at that list we have starting spots potentially open at LG, C, WR and FB on offense, DT on defense. Huge depth needs all along both lines and at WR. Rookies absolutely can come in and make an impact on this roster, and we need as many as possibly to take those starting positions, push the second tier, and fill out the bottom of the roster.

I didn't see Luke Willsons name there.
I would consider him a depth lock.

I get how you're doing this, but kinda strange. Trying to be constuctive here, but if you're doing a roster "right now" then you'd need to fill out all the starting spots. We all know the starting spots are usually not set in stone, but if we were to trot a team out right now, we'd need two starting WRs, for example.

I'd say Baldwin and Kearse are our starting locks right now, especially since they tendered Kearse at a 2nd round tender, which would show me that they are pretty serious about keeping him on the team this year. A 3rd or 4th round tender would likely net them a draft pick as another team would pick them up.

Pete has already come out and said that Bailey is going to get competition, but if we started today, he'd be our starting LG.

McDaniel or Hill is likely the starting 3 Tech DT, and I'd shade that towards Mcdaniel.

Slotting Kearse, Bailey and McDaniel doesn't necessarily say that we don't have a hole there, but it's not entirely correct to say "gee, we don't have a starter there". They absolutely know who's starting there, and how badly they need to upgrade weak positions.

They've said Bailey and Lewis would be starters, and both have started at the position, as well as Kearse. I'm not saying they're starting caliber players, but they're definately starters.

Add 4 starters from the draft and I'll be a happy man!

You missed the GLARING need at DE / LEO. Avril Should not be pigeonholed into it. Our line was much better with a clemons caliber player as LEO and avril + bennet free to be moved next to another to dominate!!

Right now, Lewis is the starting center and I doubt a drafted rookie beats him out for that spot.

Largent80":2potgo7n said:

Right now, Lewis is the starting center and I doubt a drafted rookie beats him out for that spot.

Click to expand...

the "doubt" present in that statement is why Lewis is a lock for the roster, but it is conceivable that he could be pressed for that starting position. Likely? Probably not. But certainly possible.

Brock "Croyle" (no R) is so damn versatile he occupies two separate categories.
Bozeman Grizzlies do that.

So nobody thinks Lemuel Jeanpierre is going to be considered for Center this season? Or at least as a depth lock at Center?

DHawk":2jnvcaa2 said:

So nobody thinks Lemuel Jeanpierre is going to be considered for Center this season? Or at least as a depth lock at Center?

Click to expand...

If he gets re-signed, sure.

Milton is an OL not a TE. A lot of camp bodies and obviously the team isn't done with phase 2 and phase 3 of free agency and the draft and UDFAs. The 90 man roster is going to be loaded once again.

Let's try it this way . . . as you go from light to dark you get more and more vulnerable

Starting Lock
Possible Starter/Lock Depth
Possible Veteran Cap Cut
Established Bubble Players
Bottom of the Roster

QB Russell Wilson BJ Daniels RJ Archer
RB Marshawn Lynch Robert Turbin Christine Michael Demetrius Bronson
FB Derrick Coleman
WR Doug Baldwin Paul Richardson Jermaine Kearse Kevin Norwood Richardo Lockett Chris Matthews Douglas McNeil Kevin Smith David Galreath
TE Jimmy Graham Luke Willson Anthony McCoy Copper Helfelt Raushaun Allen
OT Russell Okung Justin Britt Alvin Bailey Garry Gilliam Keavon Milton
OG JR Sweezy Steven Schilling Nate Isles Drew Nowack CJ Davis
C Patrick Lewis Jared Wheeler

DE Cliff Avril Michael Bennett Cassius Marsh Greg Scruggs Demarcus Dobbs David King Will Pericak Ryan Robinson
DT Brandon Mebane Tony McDaniel Jordan Hill Ahtyba Rubin Jesse Williams Jimmy Staten Justin Renfrow Justin Warmsley
OLB KJ Wright Bruce Irvin Kevin Pierre-Lewis Mike Taylor Brendon Kelly
MLB Bobby Wagner Brock Coyle Michael Zimmer
CB Richard Sherman Cary Williams Tharold Simon Jeremy Lane Marcus Burley Will Blackmon
S Earl Thomas Kam Chancellor Eric Pinkins Dion Bailey Deshawn Shead

LS Clint Gresham
P John Ryan
K Steven Haushka

Areas of concern
QB - Only one lock to make the team for 2, possibly 3 positions
WR - Only 2 locks to make the team for 5, possibly 6 positions
OL - Only 4 locks to make the team for 8, possibly 9 positions
DT - Only 2 locks to make the team for 4, possibly 5 positions
DE - Only 3 locks to make the team for 5 positions
S - Only 2 locks to make the team for 4 positions

That's easily 14 spots up for grabs for rookie draftees right there.

I need more of this in my life http://www.seahawks.com/videos-phot...l-Wilson/71ebca5d-38cd-42a2-a5ed-efba579caecb

I did this exercise on my own after the Jimmy Graham trade and it came out similarly; I ended up with 33 players who I felt had 95% or better odds of making the team. The remaining 20 spots are fair game for incoming rookies/UDFA.

McGruff":1lhm6dob said:

Let's try it this way . . . as you go from light to dark you get more and more vulnerable

Starting Lock
Possible Starter/Lock Depth
Possible Veteran Cap Cut
Established Bubble Players
Bottom of the Roster

QB Russell Wilson BJ Daniels RJ Archer
RB Marshawn Lynch Robert Turbin Christine Michael Demetrius Bronson
FB Derrick Coleman
WR Doug Baldwin Paul Richardson Jermaine Kearse Kevin Norwood Richardo Lockett Chris Matthews Douglas McNeil Kevin Smith David Galreath
TE Jimmy Graham Luke Willson Anthony McCoy Copper Helfelt Raushaun Allen
OT Russell Okung Justin Britt Alvin Bailey Garry Gilliam Keavon Milton
OG JR Sweezy Steven Schilling Nate Isles Drew Nowack CJ Davis
C Patrick Lewis Jared Wheeler

DE Cliff Avril Michael Bennett Cassius Marsh Greg Scruggs Demarcus Dobbs David King Will Pericak Ryan Robinson
DT Brandon Mebane Tony McDaniel Jordan Hill Ahtyba Rubin Jesse Williams Jimmy Staten Justin Renfrow Justin Warmsley
OLB KJ Wright Bruce Irvin Kevin Pierre-Lewis Mike Taylor Brendon Kelly
MLB Bobby Wagner Brock Coyle Michael Zimmer
CB Richard Sherman Cary Williams Tharold Simon Jeremy Lane Marcus Burley Will Blackmon
S Earl Thomas Kam Chancellor Eric Pinkins Dion Bailey Deshawn Shead

LS Clint Gresham
P John Ryan
K Steven Haushka

Areas of concern
QB - Only one lock to make the team for 2, possibly 3 positions
WR - Only 2 locks to make the team for 5, possibly 6 positions
OL - Only 4 locks to make the team for 8, possibly 9 positions
DT - Only 2 locks to make the team for 4, possibly 5 positions
DE - Only 3 locks to make the team for 5 positions
S - Only 2 locks to make the team for 4 positions

That's easily 14 spots up for grabs for rookie draftees right there.

Click to expand...

NOW you're cooking with gas !

Could you draw me a picture next ? :thirishdrinkers:

Seriously, I like the way you did this.

McGruff":21qr82n1 said:

Let's try it this way . . . as you go from light to dark you get more and more vulnerable

Starting Lock
Possible Starter/Lock Depth
Possible Veteran Cap Cut
Established Bubble Players
Bottom of the Roster

QB Russell Wilson BJ Daniels RJ Archer
RB Marshawn Lynch Robert Turbin Christine Michael Demetrius Bronson
FB Derrick Coleman
WR Doug Baldwin Paul Richardson Jermaine Kearse Kevin Norwood Richardo Lockett Chris Matthews Douglas McNeil Kevin Smith David Galreath
TE Jimmy Graham Luke Willson Anthony McCoy Copper Helfelt Raushaun Allen
OT Russell Okung Justin Britt Alvin Bailey Garry Gilliam Keavon Milton
OG JR Sweezy Steven Schilling Nate Isles Drew Nowack CJ Davis
C Patrick Lewis Jared Wheeler

DE Cliff Avril Michael Bennett Cassius Marsh Greg Scruggs Demarcus Dobbs David King Will Pericak Ryan Robinson
DT Brandon Mebane Tony McDaniel Jordan Hill Ahtyba Rubin Jesse Williams Jimmy Staten Justin Renfrow Justin Warmsley
OLB KJ Wright Bruce Irvin Kevin Pierre-Lewis Mike Taylor Brendon Kelly
MLB Bobby Wagner Brock Coyle Michael Zimmer
CB Richard Sherman Cary Williams Tharold Simon Jeremy Lane Marcus Burley Will Blackmon
S Earl Thomas Kam Chancellor Eric Pinkins Dion Bailey Deshawn Shead

LS Clint Gresham
P John Ryan
K Steven Haushka

Areas of concern
QB - Only one lock to make the team for 2, possibly 3 positions
WR - Only 2 locks to make the team for 5, possibly 6 positions
OL - Only 4 locks to make the team for 8, possibly 9 positions
DT - Only 2 locks to make the team for 4, possibly 5 positions
DE - Only 3 locks to make the team for 5 positions
S - Only 2 locks to make the team for 4 positions

That's easily 14 spots up for grabs for rookie draftees right there.

Click to expand...

I could have this quibble on several position names, but it's most apparent on "S" safety. The Strong Safety (SS) and Free Safety (FS) positions seem very different to me, and the 'Hawks have different requirements for players at those spots. I understand a couple guys could potentially be the depth guy at either spot, possibly Deshawn Shead, but that would be a stopgap. The SS is usually a bigger guy like Kam, a "linebacker who can cover" and the FS is a guy with amazing range like Earl who may not be as big. Cornerback types of players like Jeremy Lane would probably be the guys to go in if Earl is unavailable.

WR has the same type of thing going on, but Seattle would probably just adjust formations and plays a little to match the guys they go with, so there's more flexibility. Similar for regular (outside?) corner vs. slot corner, as we watched Simon get torched by Carolina and NE, as he tried to cover quicker slot-receiver guys. Possibly similar situation at DT as well with 1-tech vs. 3-tech.

So possibly a couple tweaks to look at positions the way Pete & co. do, would show a couple additional thin spots where they are still looking for guys to bring in to compete.

Thank you for your efforts and these are just suggestions, take any that seem on target and ignore the rest.

McGruff":uqs6n6t8 said:

Let's try it this way . . . as you go from light to dark you get more and more vulnerable

Starting Lock
Possible Starter/Lock Depth
Possible Veteran Cap Cut
Established Bubble Players
Bottom of the Roster

QB Russell Wilson BJ Daniels RJ Archer
RB Marshawn Lynch Robert Turbin Christine Michael Demetrius Bronson
FB Derrick Coleman
WR Doug Baldwin Paul Richardson Jermaine Kearse Kevin Norwood Richardo Lockett Chris Matthews Douglas McNeil Kevin Smith David Galreath
TE Jimmy Graham Luke Willson Anthony McCoy Copper Helfelt Raushaun Allen
OT Russell Okung Justin Britt Alvin Bailey Garry Gilliam Keavon Milton
OG JR Sweezy Steven Schilling Nate Isles Drew Nowack CJ Davis
C Patrick Lewis Jared Wheeler

DE Cliff Avril Michael Bennett Cassius Marsh Greg Scruggs Demarcus Dobbs David King Will Pericak Ryan Robinson
DT Brandon Mebane Tony McDaniel Jordan Hill Ahtyba Rubin Jesse Williams Jimmy Staten Justin Renfrow Justin Warmsley
OLB KJ Wright Bruce Irvin Kevin Pierre-Lewis Mike Taylor Brendon Kelly
MLB Bobby Wagner Brock Coyle Michael Zimmer
CB Richard Sherman Cary Williams Tharold Simon Jeremy Lane Marcus Burley Will Blackmon
S Earl Thomas Kam Chancellor Eric Pinkins Dion Bailey Deshawn Shead

LS Clint Gresham
P John Ryan
K Steven Haushka

Areas of concern
QB - Only one lock to make the team for 2, possibly 3 positions
WR - Only 2 locks to make the team for 5, possibly 6 positions
OL - Only 4 locks to make the team for 8, possibly 9 positions
DT - Only 2 locks to make the team for 4, possibly 5 positions
DE - Only 3 locks to make the team for 5 positions
S - Only 2 locks to make the team for 4 positions

That's easily 14 spots up for grabs for rookie draftees right there.

Click to expand...

Nice. I like how you did it the second time. Just need clarification on something. I thought I read somewhere that Mike Morgan had been resigned. I don't see his name on the list, so I was wondering if I was imagining things or if he needs to be added to the linebacker list.

Like last year JS got the roster "holes" filled before the draft. The team can really pick BPA. Left tackle is the only position that lacks depth on the team. Bailey may be a decent fill in but I expect he will be used at guard this year. He has eaten himself out of the LT position.