Russell Wilson and the 3 year, $45.5 million baseline

Here is what Russell Wilson would make, if Seattle didn't sign him to a deal and franchised him in 2016 and 2017:

2015: $1.5 million
2016: $20 million (franchise tag - estimate*)
2017: $24 million (franchise tag - estimate x 1.20)

*(The 2013 QB tag number was $14.8 million, in 2014 it was $16.1 million, in 2015 it is $18.5 million. The 2016 number could be slightly over $20 million, but I figured I'd round it to 20 for the sake of keeping things clean and simple.)

All of this means that Russell Wilson is already effectively on a 3 year, $45.5 contract going forward. This is important information because GMs will almost always use existing numbers like these as the foundations for their offers in contract talks. After all, why make an offer that pays MORE than $45.5 million from 2015-2017 when you already have that deal in the bag?

Now, lets say you want to turn this 3 year baseline deal into a 4 year contract. You already have a 3 year deal in place. Lets say the one extra year we add would be around the rumored 'better than Aaron Rodgers' level AYP. Let's say $22.5 million. Doing that would make Wilson's 4 year contract look like this:

2015: $1.5 million
2016: $20 million
2017: $24 million
2018: $22.5 million

Total: 4 years, $68 million

Wasn't the rumored deal Seattle had on the table for 4 years, $80 million? Of course, we don't know if those are tack on years or a situation where they ripped up Wilson's last cheap year, but regardless, the total numbers are pretty close to that. Doesn't seem like much of an insult anymore does it?

For Wilson to get over the $100 million mark, he'd need to sign at least a six year deal. And that might not be in Wilson's best interests, as he'd want another bite at the apple sooner, not later.

I am all for the Seahawks paying Russell Wilson his money. And I think that, because of how NFL inflation works, it would be wiser to sign Wilson now than to do it in 2016, 2017 or 2018. But when you look at how little money the Seahawks can keep Wilson for over the next three years (3/45.5), it tells me that Seattle isn't lowballing Wilson at all, they are simply using their collectively bargained leverage correctly.

When you look at the baseline 3 year numbers and see how low they are, it's really just Wilson's last cheap year that is tanking his AYP. Suddenly these contract talks will take a very different tenor in 2016 when Wilson's 3/45.5 deal graduates to a 2/44 one. Consider too that NFL salary inflation has risen by about 10% to 15% per year over the past two decades... what is considered a $20 million AYP player today could be a $22-$23 million AYP player next year.

If Seattle and Wilson can't get it done in 2015, you very well might see them agreeing to a deal in 2016 for $110-$120 million over five years. It's amazing what happens when you take out the last cheap year and sprinkle in a little inflation.

Even if Wilson signed today for the aforementioned 4/68 number, he'd still make top money in all but his last rookie year, and then he'd get his next bite at the apple much sooner than in the latter scenario. It's possible he'd actually make more money in the long term signing a short deal right now.

I am not trying to besmirch Wilson, but no matter how I look at this, I see Wilson walking away from the NFL with hundreds of millions of dollars when it's all said and done. So why make a big deal about how big the final number is on his first deal? Is it a respect thing? Wilson wouldn't be the first QB to associate dollar signs with status and respect.

If it is indeed a Flacco Syndrome thing... if it's all about how big the total number is in order to gain stature and respect... I would not expect Wilson to sign in 2015 at all, but I would give him very good odds of signing a mega deal in 2016 once the last cheap year has expired. I suspect that for Wilson, total numbers might matter to him more than AYP does since it's the total number that most people associate with the stature of a QB.

Bottom line is, Wilson isn't going anywhere, and everyone knows it. We might have to wait a year for it to be official, but that doesn't necessarily mean that there is a gulf between the two sides or that things have gotten too personal. If Wilson isn't in the $100 million club this year, he will be by 2016. I think this is what Wilson wants, which is why he seems predisposed to play out the rest of his rookie deal before signing a new one. Maybe some of the talks have grated on his nerves a bit, maybe he's impatient, or maybe he's being unrealistic. But ultimately I see a lot less resistance to a new deal once that last low cost year is over and done with, and the total number ends up much closer to Wilson's expectation.

Great post Kearly. Nice to see someone bring a little sanity to the table.

Logic and sanity is not allowed here!

Seriously, I'm happy that someone else is finally grokking the rules of this little dance between the FO and Wilson. It has ALL sorts of subtleties that Twitter could never hope to express correctly even if the poster wished to.

I LOVE IT WHEN SOMEONE REDUCES THE DISCUSSION TO SIMPLE MATH !!!!
No complex math, just 'rithmatic !!!
Good job, Bro. :th2thumbs:

All very well thought out and an angle that hasn't been put exactly that way here often. Very well done. If I may play devil's advocate as, well, it is kind of what I do.

The Hawks will use this as leverage. They will tell Wilson they've already got him for 4-years at 68, so why would they go higher? It does benefit them in a few ways to do so though. If it didn't, you would have seen guys like Romo and Flacco get franchised instead of receiving huge contracts.

First, they take care of their guy. This has been one of the major reasons the players have had the love fest with the front office and coaching staff. I know it is a little bit of a rah-rah reason, but I do believe it strongly resonates. You don't want to piss off your quarterback and leader. He'll show up and play his butt off anyways, but if there is 1% of him that doesn't have his heart in it, that's huge.

Second, I think if you are going down this road with Russell, he would begrudgingly hold out every year that he is franchised until the game checks come. He has to. He would hate doing it, and he would consider coming in anyways, but he doesn't really have a choice. That is really the only thing he can do to try to get the Seahawks to pay him a guaranteed contract. A corner, a left tackle, a running back, fine, you almost wish they would hold out of camp. But not your leader and quarterback. That guy is more important in camp than even Pete Carroll.

Third, and this is relatively unimportant, but it eats up your franchise tag for three years, so you wouldn't be able to use it on Wagner, Lynch, or Hauschka or whoever else. Not hugely important, but you'd rather have it available than not.

I've said all along that I don't think the Hawks have the cap room to get something done this year. I don't think Russell will become the highest paid QB next year either, but I think he'll get 100 million. I'm sure the Seahawks think he is their guy and is going to be their guy for a long time. If that is the case, you just wrap it up, put a bow on it, and skip the four year soap-opera.

Corroboration by Jason Cole. http://bleacherreport.com/seattle-seahawks

He also states that he does not think they will sign a contract until Russell's rookie contract expires.

netskier":nt6kgtv1 said:

Corroboration by Jason Cole. http://bleacherreport.com/seattle-seahawks

He also states that he does not think they will sign a contract until Russell's rookie contract expires.

Click to expand...

If that's the case, the mods may need to open a temporary, padded-cell type of forum for a few posters who will need therapy.

To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised at either option: RW signing soon, or waiting until next year.

I just hope he stays here.

Thanks, Kearly, for the real-world numbers to help re-frame the conversation in a perhaps more constructive direction.

Tical, I think those are good points; I wonder if they're stronger than the current financial bottom line? Guess we'll see.

Wasn't it rumored that JS wasn't willing to tear up the final year and that the offer was to tag on an extension of 4 more years at $80 million? In essence he'd be paid for 5 year $81.5 million including this year (16.3 mil/year).
Isn't the reason for the hold up because Wilson wants a significant 2015 salary increase as well or else a 5 year offer with more money and guarantees?

But I agree that the 3 year 45.5 million franchise-tag route is a significant figure to compare any offer in which his 2015 salary is unchanged. Take into account the likelihood he sees the market and his salary may average $25 million afterward and it becomes very appealing for Wilson. This is why Russell would not sign a 4 year 80 million extension that really presents as 5 year $81.5 million.

Amazing post, kearly - and much needed.

Could it be that the Seahawks are just fine with these numbers, and would let Wilson walk after his age 29 (or 30) season? Because by then, the team is going to look much different.

Will Russell age well? Much of what makes him unlike any other QB is his ability to run. When that skill declines, what kind of QB will Russell be?

Nonetheless, this is a phenomenal post. Thanks again.

Edited because I'm a tool for even bringing baseball into this discussion.

Great post Kearly, agreed as well with you Tical.

Fieldgull's timeline of Wilson's contract talk http://www.fieldgulls.com/nfl-offseason ... en-waiting

don't believe that bleacher report http://blog.thenewstribune.com/seahawks ... ictitious/

If it is the status of being the most paid QB in the league, the contract will surely not be done this offseason.

Well formulated and thought post Kearly, and good points Tical21, as always.

Seattle has used the baseline of two tagged years in the past to determine the guaranteed portion of a 3 year contract. It is very sensible.

3 years, 45 mil guaranteed. For every additional year, add 5 mil to the guaranteed.

6 years, 105 mil, 60 mil guaranteed. Perhaps a little less. With some hefty SB bonuses in there as well, Russ has to think those are attainable.

Though if I am Wilson, I want a 3 year extension, and another good contract later on.

Nice post Kearly..


The problem is all this is speculation... we dont know any of the pertainate details... they could be wrestling over gaurenteed money...

I say what ever... it will work out in the end one way or another... I still have NO sympathy for football players and their contracts... over paid whinners... LOL


LTH

How exactly does the franchise tag work? I mean if we tagged him and another team was willing to give up two first round picks which I think is highly likely, do we have any power to veto him bolting for another team? Are we guaranteed to be able to match the offer? Or do we just have to take the 2 first round picks and move on? Is a poison pill an option?

I know I would be tickled pink to steal a QB like Wilson for just two first round picks, even with a mega contract. How many picks did the Redskins give up for RGIII? It certainly is not without precedent.

Not to mention where would those picks end up? If Wilson is who we think he is then the team that gets him would certainly not be picking early and very possibly could be picking very late.

Add to that without Wilson we probably drop back to the middle of the draft.

So even the possibility of using both first round picks to move up and grab a top rated QB would be highly unlikely assuming we are using say the 17th and 19th picks in the draft to do so. Maybe if we threw in the next years (2nd 1st from the tag) 1st we could but then we would be using three 1st round picks to try and replace him and there is zero guarantee we get someone as good. Would a team that just had the first pick in the draft trade out if the prospect was truly Andrew Luck caliber?

If they use the "exclusive rights franchise tag", nobody else can make any offers.

Great post....certainly those numbers are acting as a baseline. I think the major factors from the players point of view are:
- the guaranteed money. If Wilson suffers a major injury before signing a contract, he's done. Try negotiating that contract if he tears an ACL in game 6 and is still in rehab after next season... If he gets franchised, that year's salary is guaranteed but nothing else.
- RESPECT. a non-issue to the front office, but way too big a deal to the players
- the guaranteed money
- signing bonus. How can Russell continue to date supermodels that make more than he does? sheesh. $1.7 million is a mere pittance! He needs money in his pocket RIGHT NOW. Gotta show Ciara some bling.
- the guaranteed money

This needs to be pinned on the front page. Great post, Kearly.

Tical21":24o24w2t said:

If they use the "exclusive rights franchise tag", nobody else can make any offers.

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Do you think the FO will use that on Wilson, I mean looking back at the things the FO has done they are classy about things when they know they might have an unhappy player. They usually let them go where they would want to go and succeed. Alot of our past players were given the chance to test the market, the FO gave them those options.

theincrediblesok":qt5phq7z said:

Tical21":qt5phq7z said:

If they use the "exclusive rights franchise tag", nobody else can make any offers.

Click to expand...

Do you think the FO will use that on Wilson, I mean looking back at the things the FO has done they are classy about things when they know they might have an unhappy player. They usually let them go where they would want to go and succeed. Alot of our past players were given the chance to test the market, the FO gave them those options.

Click to expand...

If he gets franchised I think they will, but I just can't see them getting to this point next year without a contract in place.