What are we going to do about Okung

jdemps · Jun 4, 2015

So I was listening to Tom Cable's radio spot on Softy from yesterday, and he brought up this offseason being one of the few that he hasn't had some sort of surgery and is really feeling good. (Paraphrasing but essentially accurate. From: http://www.fieldgulls.com/2015/6/4/8732685/tom-cable-talks-jimmy-graham-scouting-offensive-linemen) More importantly, this is a contract year for Okung and the team has to decide whether to give him a second contract. Now, It's no secret that this board is all over the spectrum on Russell Okung. In any thread that he's mentioned, someone alludes to Okung:
1. being a top 5 LT when healthy
2. never being healthy
3. being a false start machine

Purely by the numbers, PFF rated Okung as the 9th best LT last year in terms of sacks, hits, and hurries or as they call it, pass blocking efficiency https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/02/12/sig-stats-pbe-offensive-tackles/ ranked 9th while reportedly playing with a partially torn labrum. Again, the health monster/ injury bug/ Calamity perpetrator (clap for short) rears it's ugly head. Let's be real, this guy if oft injured.

Year/ Games Missed:
2010/ 6
2011/ 4
2012/ 1
2013/ 8
2014/ 2
*No playoff games.

Or 23.8% of the possible games. Not to mention the game that he gets injured early, someone unprepared gets thrown in (McQ, Bailey, Bowie, etc. ) and Russ ends up taking a beating (Example: 2013 Week 2 whiner @ Sea).

Surprisingly, the false start thing isn't far from the truth:
Year/ False Start Penalties/ Holding Penalties
2010 / 3 (Low) / 1
2011 / 6 (Tied for 5th with 12 others)/ 2
2012 / 8 (Tied #1) / 5
2013 / 2 (Low Rank) / 5
2014/ 6 (Tied 2nd)/ 4
(from pro football reference)

In his pro bowl year, he was ranked #1 for false starts. I don't have the PFF stats (because I don't want to pay for them) but I recall him grading out quite well. So, in conclusion, we have an above average tackle who is penalized at an above average rate and misses an above average number of games.

As a team, we've had top 5 success in the rushing attack (including #1 last year) over the last few years. How much of that is Beast Mode, Russ magic, or line brutality is hard to measure in absolutes (except yards after contact and broken tackle, BEAST MODE). Okung's cap hit this year is $7.2 million and has averaged $8.02 million over the life of his contrac,t which puts him at about 11th highest paid LT. Honestly, I think this is about right for him. Not elite money, but solid starter money. I think his second contract is going to be 4 years and probably $9.5- $10 million a year. The question is are the Hawks paying or are we going to let him walk. Personally, I think we've had a lot of turnover in the past 2 years and we need to keep a few guys around to provide continuity. However, Russ has to get paid. Wagz needs to be paid. Something's got to give. What's does .net think?

OkieHawk · Jun 4, 2015

Where's the TL;DR version?

Fade · Jun 4, 2015

I don't expect a player that was hurt all the time in his 20s to become and iron man in his 30s.

Seattle moved on from Max Unger due to injury concerns. I see the same future for Okung.

McGruff · Jun 4, 2015

It's a good question, and one that won't be answered until free agency in 2016. Russ will be allowed to test the market, and I suspect the team wants him back, but their number will be less than market value.

In short, he'll get the Golden Tate treatment.

I think the team would throw Bailey and Gilliam out there to battle it out with either a rook or a mid level vet. Kinda like they are doing with center this year. The good thing about Cable is that they are comfortable with a less nimble guy out there.

SalishHawkFan · Jun 4, 2015

He's missed more games than every LT in Seahawks history combined.

Buh-Bye.

Tical21 · Jun 4, 2015

I personally would bring him back at the expense of some others. However, KJ Wright, Russell, and Wagner got his money. I see about 0 chance that we're going to pay him the 8 million+ per year that he is going to get.

drdiags · Jun 4, 2015

Listening to Cable from the town hall meeting, I have to believe Sweezy is getting the money going for next off-season OL signings. I like Okung but unfortunately his health makes him a risk for doing a second contract. I am sure he will settle into a nice long term career but his time here looks to be over after this season.

If it wasn't for that darn salary cap, I would like to see him come back and be able to finish his career here. At least he got to be part of the era and has a ring to show for it.

vin.couve12 · Jun 4, 2015

Call me crazy, but I think Gilliam is going to be the next Hawks LT. Former TEs who severely outgrow the position tend to do well. He's got good feet and great athleticism for the position along with the required length. He'll have 2 years with Cable and should be absolutely ready to take over that role in 2016.

Bailey wouldn't be your most conventional LT in that he's only 6'3, but when he's around 320 he has elite athleticism for the position as well and has pretty long arms. He's a good guy to kick out to LT when needed, but if he's trim and fit he can be really good at LG. I think the Hawks need to stop messing around with him on the right side, however. Like Carpenter, you can see that his kick drop is just really unnatural on the right side with his right foot back to the point where his base isn't as stable.

If push comes to shove and nothing seems to work out, they'll probably try Britt as his college position of LT.

Again, call me crazy, but I'm not all that worried about it. Pending we don't turn into a team that has a pass ratio of 55% or more anyway.

QuahHawk · Jun 4, 2015

If you had about $20mil to spend, who would you keep if each player cost aprox

$10M Okung
$9M Wagner
$8M Irvin
$5M Sweezy
$4M Turbin
$3M Kearse

hawknation2015 · Jun 5, 2015

I was very disappointed when they neglected to draft an alternative LT prospect to develop behind Okung. Gilliam still has so far to go to become a legitimate option at that spot. Poole lacks the length and athleticism to excel at the LT position. Glowinski would clearly be better served playing inside -- ideally moving into a starting role at the left guard position this season -- but he reportedly has started receiving reps at OT during OTAs. Bailey is not half the run blocker that Okung is. We very well could be relying on a rookie starting LT in 2016.

hawknation2015 · Jun 5, 2015

Wenhawk":z2znrrin said:
If you had about $20mil to spend, who would you keep if each player cost aprox

$10M Okung
$9M Wagner
$8M Irvin
$5M Sweezy
$4M Turbin
$3M Kearse

Given his injury history, I doubt Okung would command $10 million per year. Jared Veldeer, one of the most efficient LTs in the league, received a contract from Arizona last year for just $7 million per year. Eugene Monroe, another top LT, received an extension from the Ravens last year worth just $7.5 million per year. Joe Staley, another one of the better LTs in the league, signed an extension with the Niners last year for $7.4 million per year. Thus, $7-8 million per year is the more likely market rate for Okung. Even if he manages to stay injury free this season, he is not likely to receive a raise from his current salary.

Wagner, on the other hand, could easily command $8-10 million per year. He is regarded as one of the best players at his position, and will likely have many suiters if he hits the open market. Unless we get a deal done before he hits free agency, I don't think we will be able to afford him and pay Wilson the kind of money he wants. Like Okung, he is another player with no ready alternative.

It's actually hard to see Irvin getting a deal worth as much as $8 million per year. He doesn't have many of the things that usually drive up the market value of front seven players, which are tackles and sacks. He's not really regarded as one of the best players at his position. As a 4-3 OLB, he is more valuable to us than he would be to most other defenses in the league. A team like Atlanta might try to make him into more of a pass rusher, which would increase his value, but that would be speculative. I don't think we ultimately re-sign him.

$5 million per year looks about right for Sweezy; it's hard for me to see us re-signing him given the additions of three interior linemen in the last recruiting class. I think he's gone after this season.

Kearse and Turbin would have to sign for close to the veteran minimum to stay.

Of these six, Wagner is by far the most talented, most valuable, and therefore will be the most expensive to keep. Okung is also extremely valuable given the difficulty in finding players who are capable of doing what he does as a blindside pass protector and as the team's best run blocker. There is no alternative for either of these players on the roster.

Irvin will likely be replaced by Wright, and KPL will move into the starting lineup at WLB.

Sweezy will likely be replaced by one of the three rookie linemen.

Richardson will replace Kearse once he returns from injury.

Michael will start taking backup carries. Not sure we have anyone yet who can replace Turbin's pass blocking next season. Maybe Demitrius Bronson or Thomas Rawls?

Willyeye · Jun 5, 2015

jdemps":31bmmf5v said:
So I was listening to Tom Cable's radio spot on Softy from yesterday, and he brought up this offseason being one of the few that he hasn't had some sort of surgery and is really feeling good. (Paraphrasing but essentially accurate. From: http://www.fieldgulls.com/2015/6/4/8732685/tom-cable-talks-jimmy-graham-scouting-offensive-linemen) More importantly, this is a contract year for Okung and the team has to decide whether to give him a second contract. Now, It's no secret that this board is all over the spectrum on Russell Okung. In any thread that he's mentioned, someone alludes to Okung:
1. being a top 5 LT when healthy
2. never being healthy
3. being a false start machine

Purely by the numbers, PFF rated Okung as the 9th best LT last year in terms of sacks, hits, and hurries or as they call it, pass blocking efficiency https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/02/12/sig-stats-pbe-offensive-tackles/ ranked 9th while reportedly playing with a partially torn labrum. Again, the health monster/ injury bug/ Calamity perpetrator (clap for short) rears it's ugly head. Let's be real, this guy if oft injured.

Year/ Games Missed:
2010/ 6
2011/ 4
2012/ 1
2013/ 8
2014/ 2
*No playoff games.

Or 23.8% of the possible games. Not to mention the game that he gets injured early, someone unprepared gets thrown in (McQ, Bailey, Bowie, etc. ) and Russ ends up taking a beating (Example: 2013 Week 2 whiner @ Sea).

Surprisingly, the false start thing isn't far from the truth:
Year/ False Start Penalties/ Holding Penalties
2010 / 3 (Low) / 1
2011 / 6 (Tied for 5th with 12 others)/ 2
2012 / 8 (Tied #1) / 5
2013 / 2 (Low Rank) / 5
2014/ 6 (Tied 2nd)/ 4
(from pro football reference)

In his pro bowl year, he was ranked #1 for false starts. I don't have the PFF stats (because I don't want to pay for them) but I recall him grading out quite well. So, in conclusion, we have an above average tackle who is penalized at an above average rate and misses an above average number of games.

As a team, we've had top 5 success in the rushing attack (including #1 last year) over the last few years. How much of that is Beast Mode, Russ magic, or line brutality is hard to measure in absolutes (except yards after contact and broken tackle, BEAST MODE). Okung's cap hit this year is $7.2 million and has averaged $8.02 million over the life of his contrac,t which puts him at about 11th highest paid LT. Honestly, I think this is about right for him. Not elite money, but solid starter money. I think his second contract is going to be 4 years and probably $9.5- $10 million a year. The question is are the Hawks paying or are we going to let him walk. Personally, I think we've had a lot of turnover in the past 2 years and we need to keep a few guys around to provide continuity. However, Russ has to get paid. Wagz needs to be paid. Something's got to give. What's does .net think?

Just wanted to point out, the two seasons where Okung was ranked low on False Start/Holding penalties, 2010 and 2013, were the seasons where he missed 6 games and 8 games respectively. Of course he would be ranked low in 2013 where he missed 8 games. Extrapolated to a full season, Okung would have had 4 False Starts and 10 Holding penalties in 2013.

My gut tells me that Okung will be allowed to leave in FA in 2016 and he will probably become a 4th round compensatory pick for the Hawks in 2017. I think Okung owes some of his success to his propensity for holding; a lineman who gets called that often most likely gets away with a lot of it. They have some hefty contracts with their core players, and the cap just won't allow them to keep expensive O-Line guys (especially ones who are injury-prone and penalty-inclined)...it seems that the O-Line is the most likely place that they are hoping to save cap space.

kidhawk · Jun 5, 2015

Okung is currently the least of my worries. We have all season to watch him and evaluate him (by we I mean the Seahawks front office/coaches). If we truly want him to stay, they'll try to work something out before free agency. If he asks more than we value him, we'll let him see if the market will pay more than we will. If he goes, we have the draft, plus other free agents, plus our own current players to work with for the season after.

onanygivensunday · Jun 5, 2015

Willyeye":2h6oe890 said:
They have some hefty contracts with their core players, and the cap just won't allow them to keep expensive O-Line guys (especially ones who are injury-prone and penalty-inclined)...it seems that the O-Line is the most likely place that they are hoping to save cap space.

Is it any wonder that the Lambs have built likely the most talented D-line in the league?

They're only chance is to attack Seattle's roster "softness" with a strength of their own.

Sgt. Largent · Jun 5, 2015

Okung is already costing us 8.5M, which is not even top 10 LT's, so what do we do? We try and extend him for another 2-3 and get that cap hit even lower.

http://overthecap.com/position/left-tackle/

For everyone who doesn't like Okung, I understand the criticisms, they're certainly valid. But we can't get rid of him until another equal or better LT is drafted/signed............and right now we don't have that player.

NorCalSeahawk · Jun 5, 2015

Honestly, Okung falls in the same category as every other player. He has a value to the team (higher than some guys, but he is not a top 5 guy and maybe only a top 10-12 guy with all his injures, IN MY BOOK),

I would love to see a healthy Okung on the team for another 3-4 years, but as we all know Okung has never been really "healthy", so I would offer him a contract in the 8-12th best LT's in the league and if that's not good enough then it's time to move on. Plus I think with two full years under his belt learning, Garry Gilliam will be a solid replacement, but you could still draft a LT in the first round next year and have those two guys fighting it out for the starting spot.

kobebryant · Jun 5, 2015

Stud. Extend him.

jdemps · Jun 5, 2015

I'm definitely feeling the Golden Tate treatment toward. He's going to get the below market value carrot dangled in front of him, I'm guessing $7 mil/ year tops. Take it or leave it. However, IMHO Gilliam's only a servicable LT. I'm guessing the plan is to groom Poole to be the LT of the future if Okung goes elsewhere.

Jville · Jun 5, 2015

Since you asked ............. I am not at all concerned about Russell Okung.

Okung has already collected well over $40 million prior to this upcoming training camp. So, he is in great financial shape.

Next year, there will be plenty of desperate pocket passing offenses feeling pressure to bid on desperately needed left tackles. But, that's next year and we will see what shakes out then.

Okung is currently healthy and under contract on a team whose head line coach has already stated that they are starting over on building a 2015 offensive line.

The Seahawks are a player development organization. So ..... I'm just along for the ride .... and digging it. I see some really cool developments and wrinkles in the works.

gmor · Jun 5, 2015

Fade":1tsdarb9 said:
I don't expect a player that was hurt all the time in his 20s to become and iron man in his 30s.

Seattle moved on from Max Unger due to injury concerns. I see the same future for Okung.

Good viewpoint. The Seahawks will probably take everything into consideration and set a price for him. If he doesn't accept, next man up.

What are we going to do about Okung

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