Graham projections

Hawks46 · Jun 8, 2015

I think we did this when he first was traded, but we've got some OTA's under our belts and Ivotuk posted a FO article on our OL, so I got curious and started digging around.

Here's something pretty cool: how the teams in our division covered TE's last year:
ARI ranked 27th giving up 7.5 rec/game and 66 yards/game.
STL ranked 6th at 7.3 rec/game and 44.4 yards/game
SF ranked 9th at 7 rec/game and 52.4 yards/game.

We saw this in the regular season with Luke Willson's biggest game coming against ARI. To my knowledge, they still haven't added anyone with speed to their LB corps.

Next up would be SF. Most 3-4 teams cover TE's with their LB's, and SF's were ranked pretty decent in coverage. Thing is, LB is now one of their weakest spots on the defense. Smith is a dedicated rusher, Brooks is average in coverage, and the rest of the guys are really young.

The best was STL, who's 4-3 LB corps is dang near as good as ours. All of these teams were giving up at least 7 rec/game.

For a fun reference, we were ranked 18th, giving up 6.3 rec/game and 41.3 yards/game. No, I don't always understand FO's ranking system.

Graham is one of the worst physical mismatches at TE in the league. Per Kearly's thread about Wilson throwing a lot to Graham, we can assume we're going to hit Graham whenever we can.

So, what's your projections for Graham's numbers going into the year?

Previously, I'd said 70-80 rec's for 900 yards and 10 TD's.
I will revise that a bit to: 85 rec, 1100 yards and 12 TD's. This seems overly optimistic to me, but taking our opponent's averages in division (accounting for 2 of them to be top 10 in the league against TE's), and taking 1.5 rec/game away due to our lack of passing attempts (an arbitrary number I came up with) I can come up with a SWAG.

What say you ?

Bigpumpkin · Jun 8, 2015

I say that the fans will not know much until the season actually begins. In the past, Pete has not revealed much in Preseason. I see no change this year either. My guesstimate would be about ten catches for Jimmy in Preseason.

chris98251 · Jun 8, 2015

I think they will focus on him early in Pre Season for game speed and then spread the ball around, throwing to him just because he is there like Harvin stifles this offense, we are best when the defense doesn't know what's coming.

seabowl · Jun 9, 2015

I honestly think in 2 TE sets Luke Willson will benefit greatly with Graham on the field and get a lot of open looks. Obviously Marshawn too will love the fact that Graham commands serious attention and give him the ability to not have to face beating 3-4 guys on D.

Hawks46 · Jun 9, 2015

chris98251":1csbkz8x said:
I think they will focus on him early in Pre Season for game speed and then spread the ball around, throwing to him just because he is there like Harvin stifles this offense, we are best when the defense doesn't know what's coming.

I tend to generally agree with this, but there's a couple of things different about us:

Our offense does have trick plays, but mostly it's pretty predictable. I'd tend to agree with the "doesn't know what's coming" as pertains to PA passes and the LBers and DL not knowing whether it's run or pass, but the only real unpredictable thing about our run game is which hole Lynch is going to hit. With the ZBS, the back side cut can gash you badly if you're not ready for it, but we don't employ a lot of motion and misdirection in the run game like SF did a couple of years ago.

Graham is one of the first receivers we've had that it won't matter if the defense knows it's coming or not. He's that dominant that even if a defender knows the ball is coming to Graham, he probably can't stop it. Also, I'd like to see us attack another teams' weaknesses more; Pete does what we do and dares the other team to stop it. Pound the ball into Graham and Lynch, when the defense over corrects to stop Graham.....we hit them with other options, and hopefully down field with our vertical threats.

Kind of why I asked the question in the OP: we can force the ball to Graham, or we can do business as normal and he's just another TE in our offense. I can see either happening.

chris98251 · Jun 9, 2015

Pete is all about the explosive play, limiting them with his defense but making them on offense, I think in our scheme the run it and roll out 7 to 15 yd plays to get the defense to start sitting on routes and pull up defenders to stop underneath things and the run and then the go route once you start to cheat. The sideline patterns Rice used to run did that, they would start trying to jump routes or sheild him from the ball. Thats when he would fake the out and them go for the streak towards the end zone with the nice arcing pass from Wilson. Graham will be able to do that in spades for us.

onanygivensunday · Jun 9, 2015

I'm going to predict that Jimmy breaks the Seahawks Most Receiving Touchdowns season record currently held by Touchdown Daryl Turner... 13 TDs in 1985.

SeaChase · Jun 9, 2015

34 rec, 405 yds, 5 tds..

onanygivensunday · Jun 9, 2015

SeaChase":2hefa5b7 said:
34 rec, 405 yds, 5 tds..

I would double those.

SeaChase · Jun 9, 2015

Not in our system. I can see the TD's being higher.

400WattHPSHawk · Jun 9, 2015

onanygivensunday":3ha1cla5 said:
I'm going to predict that Jimmy breaks the Seahawks Most Receiving Touchdowns season record currently held by Touchdown Daryl Turner... 13 TDs in 1985.

Doable. But this is what I see...

0 RZ td's because Bevell knows the defense knows that, like running it from the 1 or something.

Hehe :thfight7:

Spin Doctor · Jun 9, 2015

600 yards, 8 touchdowns

Decimation · Jun 9, 2015

Spin Doctor":8z7p1yir said:
600 yards, 8 touchdowns

Why so low?

MizzouHawkGal · Jun 9, 2015

I say he breaks 1000 yards and gets 10-12 TD's. Smart money says throw to him every chance you get until other teams can stop it. It's about damn time that Wilson has a receiver the defense must adjust to or lose. Instead of him having to go all epic just to keep us in games from the offensive standpoint.

Spin Doctor · Jun 9, 2015

Decimation":2kmnt0mw said:
Spin Doctor":2kmnt0mw said:

600 yards, 8 touchdowns

Click to expand...

Why so low?

I think that this is a good number given the offense that he plays in. New Orleans is one of the heaviest pass biased teams in the NFL. Graham got a lot of reps, and opportunities to shine in that offense, opportunities that he will not get in Seattle.

New Orleans also used him in a variety of ways. They would move him out to the slot position, line him up as receiver, tight end, H-Back, you name it. Teams never knew where Graham would line up. I'm not sure I trust Bevell to use him in that fashion. We turned one of the best receiving tight ends at the time (Miller) into an afterthought, and glorified blocking TE. I think we grossly miss-used Miller. He was essentially another tackle out there, I hope that Graham doesn't find himself in that role. That being said, Graham is more dynamic than Miller ever was at TE.

It's a combo between opportunity and role.

Vetamur · Jun 10, 2015

65 catches, 700 to 800 yards, 8 or 9 TDs.

HawkAroundTheClock · Jun 10, 2015

Reception leaders the past 3 years:
Baldwin, 66 / 825 (2nd: Kearse, 38 / 537; Top TE: Willson, 22 / 362)
Tate, 64 / 898 (2nd: Baldwin, 50 / 778; Top TE: Miller, 33 / 387)
Rice, 50 / 748 (2nd: Tate, 45 / 688; Top TE: Miller, 38 / 396)

Receiving TD leaders the past 3 years:
Lynch - 4
Tate, Baldwin, Miller - 5
Rice, Tate - 7
______________________________

It's tricky trying to predict how one of the most productive receivers in the league will perform in the offense of one of the lowest-volume-passing teams. My expectations for Graham:

67 rec, 740 yards, 9 TD
______________________________

Floor:
40 rec, 450 yds, 6 TD

Ceiling:
75 rec, 900 yds, 15 TD

Vetamur · Jun 10, 2015

peachesenregalia":17qve5rn said:
Vetamur":17qve5rn said:

My people once believed, that Jimmy Graham will have 65 catches, 700 to 800 yards, 8 or 9 TDs.

Click to expand...

I agree with this guy.

Gotta work on my accent

Decimation · Jun 10, 2015

Spin Doctor":3knuywb6 said:
Decimation":3knuywb6 said:

Spin Doctor":3knuywb6 said:

600 yards, 8 touchdowns

Click to expand...

Why so low?

Click to expand...

I think that this is a good number given the offense that he plays in. New Orleans is one of the heaviest pass biased teams in the NFL. Graham got a lot of reps, and opportunities to shine in that offense, opportunities that he will not get in Seattle.

New Orleans also used him in a variety of ways. They would move him out to the slot position, line him up as receiver, tight end, H-Back, you name it. Teams never knew where Graham would line up. I'm not sure I trust Bevell to use him in that fashion. We turned one of the best receiving tight ends at the time (Miller) into an afterthought, and glorified blocking TE. I think we grossly miss-used Miller. He was essentially another tackle out there, I hope that Graham doesn't find himself in that role. That being said, Graham is more dynamic than Miller ever was at TE.

It's a combo between opportunity and role.

Makes sense, I like your analysis. I believe Graham will have a tremendous impact on this team and that's what makes this upcoming season so exciting.

Here's to hoping that Bevell knows how to utilize one of the most productive tight ends in recent history. Still can't believe Jimmy is a Seahawk lol. Crazy.

Lords of Scythia · Jun 10, 2015

Hawks46":2gcyi3tj said:
I think we did this when he first was traded, but we've got some OTA's under our belts and Ivotuk posted a FO article on our OL, so I got curious and started digging around.

Here's something pretty cool: how the teams in our division covered TE's last year:
ARI ranked 27th giving up 7.5 rec/game and 66 yards/game.
STL ranked 6th at 7.3 rec/game and 44.4 yards/game
SF ranked 9th at 7 rec/game and 52.4 yards/game.

We saw this in the regular season with Luke Willson's biggest game coming against ARI. To my knowledge, they still haven't added anyone with speed to their LB corps.

Next up would be SF. Most 3-4 teams cover TE's with their LB's, and SF's were ranked pretty decent in coverage. Thing is, LB is now one of their weakest spots on the defense. Smith is a dedicated rusher, Brooks is average in coverage, and the rest of the guys are really young.

The best was STL, who's 4-3 LB corps is dang near as good as ours. All of these teams were giving up at least 7 rec/game.

For a fun reference, we were ranked 18th, giving up 6.3 rec/game and 41.3 yards/game. No, I don't always understand FO's ranking system.

Graham is one of the worst physical mismatches at TE in the league. Per Kearly's thread about Wilson throwing a lot to Graham, we can assume we're going to hit Graham whenever we can.

So, what's your projections for Graham's numbers going into the year?

Previously, I'd said 70-80 rec's for 900 yards and 10 TD's.
I will revise that a bit to: 85 rec, 1100 yards and 12 TD's. This seems overly optimistic to me, but taking our opponent's averages in division (accounting for 2 of them to be top 10 in the league against TE's), and taking 1.5 rec/game away due to our lack of passing attempts (an arbitrary number I came up with) I can come up with a SWAG.

What say you ?

Another huge factor is how they defend him at reciever, where he'll be against cbs. Or what happens if he's alternating between te and wr. He might be too unique and special to apply a prediction calclulus to.

Graham projections

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