rideaducati":6p57hrwz said:
I don't see where you get that Wilson's agent is good at his job. He has NEVER negotiated an NFL contract. He also has his client buying an insurance policy that will probably cost more than his NFL salary for the season instead of signing a contract that would make his client the third highest paid QB in the NFL. Claiming that he likes the idea of having his client receive the franchise tag is rather baffling because instead of being guaranteed to be the third highest paid QB and having millions in the bank, he is steering his client towards being paid the average of the top 5 at his position for only one year while being exposed to injury for two seasons without a long term deal in place. I bet he won't like it when the Seahawks put the nonexclusive franchise tag on Russell and no other team in the NFL will cater to their demands either. Russell might lose millions of dollars because his agent is a clown.
Russell's agent is gambling his client's future on his own ability to change the way the NFL structures contracts for players.
I wouldn't consider it being Russell crawling back with his tail between his legs if he signed his contract offer before the season started, I'd consider it a smart move.
Seems like a lot of huffing and puffing from Wilson's camp while the Seahawks sit in their brick house. I think Russell will sign before training camp is over for $22 million/season. That is close to what the Seahawks have already offered and would make Russell the same amount as Aaron Rodgers in a per year average.
A few things on this:
1) If all reports are to be believed the Seahawks want Wilson to sign an extension (rather than a new deal), meaning that in terms of next year's money the difference between playing out this year or signing an extension is somewhat trivial.
2) The franchise tag next year would make Wilson the highest paid QB in the NFL next year, and the first QB in NFL history to actually earn more than 20 million dollars in a season. As we all know APY is almost always backloaded with funny money. If Wilson was franchised two years in a row he'd be the first player in NFL history to actually make over 20 million in a year, and the first player in NFL history to actually make over 30 million in a year. Then the Seahawks would be back where they started, except they'd have already given Wilson the equivalent of a 55 million two year extension, while building acrimony into the process.
In essence I sincerely really do disagree with your take on this. The franchise tag means the Seahawks would be paying Wilson as far and away the top paid QB in each year over the next two years, and still not have locked him up. If even financially feasible in the first place, that would be a horrible outcome for them.
I think the thing you're missing is that the franchise tag is based on top 5 APY, but APY isn't a real number. If the franchise tag was based on average of the top 5 for THAT YEAR we'd be having an entirely different conversation.
3) I think you're making a serious assumption, and a flawed one, about 31 other teams and the non-exclusive tag. The Seahawks LIKE to sign their players with a year still left on their deal because they have exclusive negotiating rights. There's not a market in the world for singular objects (e.g. Russell Wilson, a painting, etc.) in which increased demand doesn't drive up price. It violates the most basic of exchange principles. .Even beyond allowing more buyers into the market, there are teams with 1) more cap room and 2) more need than the Seahawks. Letting someone else negotiate Wilson's contract for them is just a horrible idea. There is not a scenario in which that brings the contract level down. It's like suggesting that you could get more money for your car by negotiating exclusively with me than by making me bid against 15 other suitors for your car. It jjust doesn't make any sense.
4) Wilson's agent is smart, or treated as such, because what he's doing isn't business as usualy in the NFL. By forgoing artificially inserted market limitations (the same thing he does in baseball) he's driving the price up, and knows he's safe to do so because the absolute worst case scenario for him is that the Seahawks end up signing Wilson to the equivalent of a two year 55 million dollar extension.
As for Wilson getting injured, it's a risk of course, but all transactions have risks (the risk on other side is taking a deal below what a competitive market would offer and all the money you lose out on with that). Who's the last young QB to have a career ending injury? Wilson has never even missed a game before. If his agent is doing what we think he's doing, it's a smart roll of the dice, and it's the same strategy he has used as a baseball agent to great success.
): You know how every year when you look at the upcoming free agent list there's a ton of absolutely amazing players but by the time you get to free agency almost the whole top of the market has disappeared and been resigned by their teams? 
