Popeyejones":1a6vrqy2 said:
The problem with this type of analysis is that there's an empty cell; teams that COULD have paid their excellent QB at the market rate but opted not to.
What's their Super Bowl rate? We have no idea, because nobody actually does that, making the whole analysis kind of an exercise in futility.
If someone can show me an example of a team letting their would-be highly paid QB walk and then turning around and going to the Super Bowl I'm all ears, but without that, we have no idea what the optimal thing to do in this situation is.
"At the market rate" is the operative phrase. Almost every QB that I can recall has taken their team's cap situation into account when agreeing to an extension. That is because almost every QB is at least a somewhat rational actor who recognizes that their team's cap flexibility directly impacts their own ability to win.
Wilson, so far, has expressed no interest in giving his team cap flexibility, though maybe he is hiding that interest in the pursuit of leverage. In fact, Wilson has equated this negotiation to North Carolina State's decision to force him to transfer his senior year. When in reality, all evidence points to the fact that this is nothing like situation, as the Seahawks have put a "market value" offer on the table that would make him one of the three highest paid players in the game.
Wilson has chosen not to accept that offer, at least so far, yet has unfairly equated it to forcing him out. He's a 26 year old who has had a lot of good fortune in this early part of his playing career . . . transferring to a loaded Wisconsin program and then getting drafted by a team that boasted one of the best defenses and some of the best coaching in the league.
As for the example you are looking for, how about the Packers? They won a Super Bowl two years after trading Favre. Maybe there is a better example, but it is rare because usually both the franchise QB and the team have a mutual interest in paying the QB a fair market deal that also allows for cap flexibility.