Doug Baldwin I believe will hit 1000 yards this year

Enough of the Wilson threads, let's talk about Dougie. I believe Doug will hit 1000 yard this season. I think with the threat of Lynch and Wilson in the backfield, with the addition of Jimmy Graham, Doug is primed to be the open man. I Was looking up when some of our players will become a free agent and saw this:

"Incentives: $2.3 million (2015-16): 55 catches, 1000 receiving yards & 9 TDs."

I think Doug will hit that mark, the bad part is i believe he will be gone in 2017 when he becomes a free agent.

I think he will definitely have more opportunities to get open, but it will be hard for him to hit those numbers, especially the TDs.

Baldwin is most effective either in the slot (where Graham and Lockett will also see snaps) and at flanker (where we have Richardson, Kearse, Lockett, and others). It will be interesting to see how they use him with the addition of Graham and Lockett.

I will agree with you on the TDs, that will be the part that will be interesting to see, he had 50 catches and 5 TDs in 2013.

Depending on what happens with Wilson's deal, some people are thinking of him as a potential cap casualty next year, either releasing or trading him to free up $4 million for Wilson.

I think his targets and catches will go down, but it may be his best year.

As far as ypc and td's, general play making.

He will need to find a way to create separation quicker if he is to hit those numbers.

brimsalabim":2v75l5j4 said:

He will need to find a way to create separation quicker if he is to hit those numbers.

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Yep. Doug is removed from games by good CBs.

God love ya, but I think the only way Baldwin gets anywhere near 1000 yards is if both Graham and Lynch get hurt.

Our TE is going to get way more targets this season. Matthews will get more targets this season. Lockett will probably steal some touches. I would guess Baldwin's targets go down, somewhat considerably.

With all due respect, I don't think I want Doug to get those kind of numbers. Our O is predicated on spreading the ball around, not generating fantasy stats for individuals. Does anybody really think RWilson will hit 4000 yds passing? I think he would have to if we want Baldwin to get 1000.

Those kind of numbers ain't happening unless something is wrong, IMHO.

Our crew fits the mold of 4-5 guys in the 5-600 yd range, not one guy with 1000 and a bunch of stiffs.

Sure you might think Baldwin will get more opportunities with Graham out there, but Graham is gonna get his catches and yds, too. I don't think we hired him to be a decoy.

Doug could get more yards due to the field being more open with defenders not cheating up and having to play honest.

FlyingGreg":1sz0pwvn said:

brimsalabim":1sz0pwvn said:

He will need to find a way to create separation quicker if he is to hit those numbers.

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Yep. Doug is removed from games by good CBs.

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That's pretty much the kicker and I understand why he would believe he could reach 1000. With Jimmy on the field it should pull opponents best CB away from Doug. Sure Jimmy will still get his but if we game plan properly we should have much better success on 3rd downs and that extends drives and drives up stats.

It could prove to be a nightmare for opposing defenses to try and spy Wilson, slow down Lynch, double Jimmy and stop every other receiver and TE from being wide open.

We will absolutely have to improve on getting the ball out quickly to slow down opponents rushers from blitzing on every play because that will be the easy mantra with our O-line working out the bugs and knowing what will happen if Wilson has time for plays to develop but that is something we have seen much improvement on. Now we just need some reliable hands to catch those quick passes instead of tipping them up for opponents to grab easy picks.

I don't know if Doug will hit 1000 but the tools are in place for it to happen if we play it correctly.

FlyingGreg":ksear5r0 said:

brimsalabim":ksear5r0 said:

He will need to find a way to create separation quicker if he is to hit those numbers.

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Yep. Doug is removed from games by good CBs.

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That's what happens when you are a great slot WR, being trotted out on the field as a #1. Kearse is a #4 WR being trotted out as a #2 last year.

For Doug Baldwin to go over 1K either Lynch has to be injured and out most of the year (causing the Seahawks to change their offensive game plan), or Graham has to be out most of the year, Richardson has to miss the season/do nothing when he's back, and Lockett has to be a bust on offense.

The Hawks don't throw a lot to begin with, and Wilson does a good job of spreading the ball around rather than locking into guys.

Basically, if Baldwin goes over 1K I think there's about a 70% chance that it's because something else has gone wrong.

FlyingGreg":1ev6sd5d said:

brimsalabim":1ev6sd5d said:

He will need to find a way to create separation quicker if he is to hit those numbers.

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Yep. Doug is removed from games by good CBs.

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Is the case not that Wilson doesn't look his way when covered by top receivers?
I'm sure there was some analysis done on Baldwin's game against Revis and how he consistently got open against him but Wilson never looked his way in the SB.

Revis is the best corner he can face in a competitive game, so that kind of blows that theory out of the water.

themunn":1dqaj1a8 said:

I'm sure there was some analysis done on Baldwin's game against Revis and how he consistently got open against him but Wilson never looked his way in the SB.

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IIRC someone compiled some .gifs to make that argument, but they were overstuffed with examples of Revis having really good trail coverage with someone over top, or a zone man over the middle, etc. There were a few times Baldwin looked open, but Wilson has already bailed on the play or was at a different point in his progression. FWIW overall I wasn't that convinced (at all) that Baldwin was eating up Revis all game and Wilson was just missing it. He could have obviously ended the game with better stats than a single reception for a 3 yd TD on a referee pick, but it wasn't too outlandish or anything.

J. Graham.......750-850 yds, 8-10 tds
D. Baldwin......650-750 yds, 4-5 tds
C. Matthews 500-600 yds, 5-7 tds
J. Kearse.........400-500 yds, 4-5 tds
T. Lockett......300-400 yds, 3-4 tds
L. Willson........300-400 yds, 2-3 tds
M. Lynch..........300-400 yds, 2-3 tds
Others.............350-450 yds, 2-3 tds

Some Notes:

Im a firm believer that Jimmy Graham will tremendously open things up for everyone. But Wilson will still spread the ball around, so there wont be a lot of potential for 1 player to get a lot of targets.

I expect Matthews to put in a decent year and become the 2nd primary RZ target behind Graham.

The listing of "Others" is obviously not concrete... Its mostly contrived of backups, some of whom that are in position battles. The bulk of the numbers go to P-Rich but only if he's healthy enough. If not then the guys at the top will get more love.

Endgame: With the additions of Graham (5th year) and Lockett JR (rookie) plus the continued developments of Baldwin (5th yr), Kearse (4th yr), Willson (3rd yr), and Matthews (2nd year).

Plus, P-Rich, Norwood (2nd yr), and/or Lockette SR (5th yr), and/or Helfet (4th yr), and/or McCoy (6th yr)...

Look for Russell Willson to have a monster year 4:

R. Wilson.........3,600-4,400 yds, 30-40 tds
RW Median.....4,000 yards, 35 tds

Pandion Haliaetus":1siqxpmr said:

RW Median.....4,000 yards, 35 tds

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:shock:

brimsalabim":3vr8owti said:

He will need to find a way to create separation quicker if he is to hit those numbers.

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Or at least find a way to make Wilson look to him as a target when he's created separation. Something Wilson seemingly couldn't do during the playoffs and especially the super bowl.

It is all about YAC, we didn't get a lot of that from the slot, many times it was catch and down or very close to that, the hitting in stride so the slot guy has a chance to make a move and break loose is what I hope Graham helps with by opening up the coverage depth and spacing.