Hawks Maintain QB Salary Cap Advantage vs. other chise QBs

"Wait until Wilson signs his deal, then you're screwed!" -said every opposing fan ever. (and Tical )

I just want to BUST this myth for good.

The advantage still exists. Especially in a rolling cap.

Comparing Franchise QB cap hits.

2015 $26.4 ($143 Salary Cap) Drew Brees
2016 $28.5 (est.$150 Salary Cap) Joe Flacco
2016 $24.0 (est.$150 Salary Cap) Ben Roethlisberger
2016 $23.8 (est.$150 Salary Cap) Matt Ryan
2017 $24.7 (est.$160 Salary Cap) Tony Romo
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2019 $23.2 (est.$180 Salary Cap) Cam Newton
2019 $23.2 (est.$180 Salary Cap) Russell Wilson
2019 $21.1 (est.$180 Salary Cap) Aaron Rodgers

Russell Wilson doesn't have a really crooked cap number until the cap is $30-40 million higher in comparison with his peers. These are the teams in direct competition with the Seahawks for Superbowls going forward, and the Hawks retain a Salary Cap advantage at the QB spot against all of them in a rolling cap.

What about Rodgers? He has higher cap hits over the next 3 years, in a rolling cap that is a huge advantage.

What about Cam? Again he has higher cap hits over the next 3 years.

What about Luck, Rivers, Eli? All expected to get deals bigger than Rodgers $22 million APY.

What about Peyton? Too old.

What about Brady? Too old. Maybe 1 more year. Russell's 7 vs Tom's 14. Russ still beats him by double.


Younger QBs like a Teddy Bridgewater are the ones to fear. The Vikes will have an advantage on the Hawks if he is the real deal.

2015: $1.5
2016: $1.8
2017: $2.2
2018: 5th year team option

Russell Wilson's miniscule cap hit of $7 million in 2015 would easily cover Bridgewater for the next 3 years with plenty leftover.

In other words the Seahawks will not lose their Cap advantage at QB for the foreseeable future until the next young phenom QB comes along.

Good post.

I was listening to ESPN radio today, and they said that the huge signing bonus was already planned for by the Hawks, and they had saved up for it in rolled over cap space. Wilson's real cap hits are around 17 million year, meaning next year and the year after, he has slightly lower cap hits than Jay Cutler. If that's true, damn.

Also, with the Vikings, we even out a bit. Even though we will pay more for Wilson than Bridgewater, they pay more for Peterson than we do Lynch, and it's a fairly decent chunk. They also pay a lot more for their OL, and due to Wilson's unique elusiveness, it's not that big of a deal.

Hawks46":24e749el said:

Good post.

I was listening to ESPN radio today, and they said that the huge signing bonus was already planned for by the Hawks, and they had saved up for it in rolled over cap space. Wilson's real cap hits are around 17 million year, meaning next year and the year after, he has slightly lower cap hits than Jay Cutler. If that's true, damn.

Also, with the Vikings, we even out a bit. Even though we will pay more for Wilson than Bridgewater, they pay more for Peterson than we do Lynch, and it's a fairly decent chunk. They also pay a lot more for their OL, and due to Wilson's unique elusiveness, it's not that big of a deal.

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I agree.

Talent around the QB is a whole other thing.

IF Bridgewater is the truth they will have an advantage long term over the Hawks in 1 thing --> $ allocated to QB, but they will still have to surround him with talent to capitalize with more cap space to do so obviously.

Bridgewater isn't the next Wilson. The nearest comparison to Wilson I can see is Fran Tarkenton or Steve Young and Bridgewater isn't anything like either. He's a pocket passer and he will be very good, maybe even elite. But he isn't a scrambler or true dual threat like Wilson.

Notice how rare that kind of player is? Your next nearest comparison would be Cam Newton and RG3 or Michael Vick.

MizzouHawkGal":1uedvl5x said:

Bridgewater isn't the next Wilson. The nearest comparison to Wilson I can see is Fran Tarkenton or Steve Young and Bridgewater isn't anything like either. He's a pocket passer and he will be very good, maybe even elite. But he isn't a scrambler or true dual threat like Wilson.

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I'm not talking skill set. I'm talking Young, CHEAP, Franchise QB. You might have missed the --> " ".

*edit* I'm going to edit my OP so more people don't get confused.

And TIcal. I lol'd.

kearly":1vbf927x said:

And TIcal. I lol'd.

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Fade":1bvqd6fn said:

MizzouHawkGal":1bvqd6fn said:

Bridgewater isn't the next Wilson. The nearest comparison to Wilson I can see is Fran Tarkenton or Steve Young and Bridgewater isn't anything like either. He's a pocket passer and he will be very good, maybe even elite. But he isn't a scrambler or true dual threat like Wilson.

Click to expand...

I'm not talking skill set. I'm talking Young, CHEAP, Franchise QB. You might have missed the --> " ".

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Well that is just part of the deal for being the hunted and not the hunter. Every year there will always be someone both younger and cheaper. It's just now Seattle Seahawk fans get to see and experience what other teams with truly top tier players at multiple positions combined with that most rare of the rare (a tier 1 quarterback) have experienced or experienced multiple times.

But to even be at table with the chance to ante up you MUST have that tier 1 quarterback, we got him today and finally we're at the big table. Hopefully for years to come.

Oh yeah, the Tical comment was comedy gold.

@Tical, you know it was, just admit that karma just bitch slapped you because you pissed her off.

MizzouHawkGal":3fb8fbaa said:

Fade":3fb8fbaa said:

MizzouHawkGal":3fb8fbaa said:

Bridgewater isn't the next Wilson. The nearest comparison to Wilson I can see is Fran Tarkenton or Steve Young and Bridgewater isn't anything like either. He's a pocket passer and he will be very good, maybe even elite. But he isn't a scrambler or true dual threat like Wilson.

Click to expand...

I'm not talking skill set. I'm talking Young, CHEAP, Franchise QB. You might have missed the --> " ".

Click to expand...

Well that is just part of the deal for being the hunted and not the hunter. Every year there will always be someone both younger and cheaper. It's just now Seattle Seahawk fans get to see and experience what other teams with truly top tier players at multiple positions combined with that most rare of the rare (a tier 1 quarterback) have experienced or experienced multiple times.

But to even be at table with the chance to ante up you MUST have that tier 1 quarterback, we got him today and finally we're at the big table. Hopefully for years to come.

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True.

I just find it very interesting how well set up the Hawks are the next few years, against their primary competition for Superbowls.

Meanwhile the Franchise QB Salary Cap Hit Boogie Man isn't the primary fear that everyone has been making out these last couple years. It will be the Young Phenom QB Boogie man that is the real threat.

In the short term its Hawks vs. Pack clearly.

Pretty great when a plan comes together isn't it? Especially one Pete and John spelled out from day one. What has been interesting and shocking to me is the fact that they've been incredibly straightforward and honest to everyone about the process. Yet most still don't get it to the degree someone would need to actually be successful at copying it and get similar results

It's exactly like the Jimmy Johnson Cowboys. You knew what was coming, how it was coming, where it was coming from and why it was coming but still couldn't do a thing to stop it (coming). 8)

I very much agree with you, anyone saying this is some sort of devastation to the cap isn't looking at the % relative to other good QB's. Everyone says Brady takes team friendly deals and I think that is true to a large extent, but his cap % last year was only 1% lower than RW's highest cap % year under this new deal. I don't buy the notion that a good front office can't make up for that 1% or even maybe tinker with his cap hit down the road now that he has security. I think they got a pretty solid deal and still let Wilson leave happy.

I mean just the core they already have under contract for a few more years is bonkers and there seems to be a lot of optimism about Wags still getting done before the season. At most we lose a DT, hopefully just tinker with some deals move money around.

Let's face it ... we were lucky to find an excellent QB in the third round. Just like the Vikes were lucky to get Teddy as last pick in the first round. Luck is part of it. Our coaches were able to maximize his skills within the game plan. The backfield of Russell + ML is just not fair. Period. Now we add Jimmy Graham to it ... I don't wanna be the opposing DC.
That said, we drafted well and developed well in other positions and our coaches have done an excellent job coaching up and preparing the guys well.

The value of his bargain rookie contract will continue to benefit the club through 2019.

MizzouHawkGal":2dy17tsz said:

Bridgewater isn't the next Wilson. The nearest comparison to Wilson I can see is Fran Tarkenton or Steve Young and Bridgewater isn't anything like either. He's a pocket passer and he will be very good, maybe even elite. But he isn't a scrambler or true dual threat like Wilson.

Notice how rare that kind of player is? Your next nearest comparison would be Cam Newton and RG3 or Michael Vick.

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Hes got a little Wilson in him

He actually ran for 209 yards and a TD last year but he is more of a pocket passer

Fade":2278y4yv said:

"Wait until Wilson signs his deal, then you're screwed!" -said every opposing fan ever. (and Tical )

I just want to BUST this myth for good.

Click to expand...

TBF I think you're conflating two arguments.

YOUR ARUGMENT: The Hawks are paying Wilson 10-15% less APY than QBs like Ryan, Romo, Brees, etc., and on par with QBs like Rodgers and Cam. (worth saying that in 2015/2016 you're comparing the front of Wilson's backloaded deals to the back of other folks' back loaded deals and they'll most likely be restructed, but no biggie).


THE "WAIT UNTIL WILSON" SIGNS ARGUMENT: Once you're not paying Wilson 1/2 of 1% of what other teams are paying their top QBs, even if you're paying him a couple million less a year than they're paying (rather than 20 million less a year), you'll see what teams who have to pay their QB market rate have to deal with.

So, basically, I think you're right, but are actually missing the point of the argument that those folks have made rather than puncturing it.

^ Agree. To be honest the Hawks and RW pulled off a win/win and everyone should feel ecstatic. I mean that sincerely and I cheered hard for Russ before most on this board I would guess. But even Cam's new-CBA rookie deal cap hit difference from RW in 2014 (well over $6 million) was roughly that of the 2014 cap hits of Irvin, Kearse, and Hauschka combined, for example. They may not be megastars but they were terrors and difference makers on offense/defense/special teams against the Panthers. Replaceable? Probably, but only time will tell.

Popeyejones":169kk5k7 said:

Fade":169kk5k7 said:

"Wait until Wilson signs his deal, then you're screwed!" -said every opposing fan ever. (and Tical )

I just want to BUST this myth for good.

Click to expand...

TBF I think you're conflating two arguments.

YOUR ARUGMENT: The Hawks are paying Wilson 10-15% less APY than QBs like Ryan, Romo, Brees, etc., and on par with QBs like Rodgers and Cam. (worth saying that in 2015/2016 you're comparing the front of Wilson's backloaded deals to the back of other folks' back loaded deals and they'll most likely be restructed, but no biggie).


THE "WAIT UNTIL WILSON" SIGNS ARGUMENT: Once you're not paying Wilson 1/2 of 1% of what other teams are paying their top QBs, even if you're paying him a couple million less a year than they're paying (rather than 20 million less a year), you'll see what teams who have to pay their QB market rate have to deal with.

So, basically, I think you're right, but are actually missing the point of the argument that those folks have made rather than puncturing it.

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My point is the advantage is still there, its just not as great as it once was, but it is still there.

People where prophecizing the opposite.

The numbers don't lie.
If you look up every franchise QB, Russ has lower cap numbers going forward, in a rolling cap that is an advantage because it allows you to keep more great players than teams that are paying 20+ for their QBs.

Hawkstorian":e6drsltd said:

The value of his bargain rookie contract will continue to benefit the club through 2019.

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This right here is the gist of it.

This might give Russell's contract a little more perspective.

Top 11 2016 QB cap hits.

Joe Flacco $28,550,000
Drew Brees $27,400,000
Ben Roethlisberger $23,950,000
Matt Ryan $23,750,000
Matt Stafford $22,500,000
Peyton Manning $21,500,000
Tony Romo $20,835,000
Cam Newton $19,500,000
Aaron Rodgers $19,250,000
Carson Palmer $19,075,000
Russell Wilson $18,540,000


Top 11 2017 cap hits:


Joe Flacco $31,150,000
Tony Romo $24,700,000
Matt Ryan $23,750,000
Carson Palmer $22,675,000
Matt Stafford $22,000,000
Aaron Rodgers $20,300,000
Ryan Tannehill $20,300,000
Cam Newton $20,166,000
Colin Kaepernick $19,365,753
Russell Wilson $18,800,000
Ben Roethlisberger $18,200,000

Top 11 2018 QB cap hits:

Tony Romo $25,200,000
Joe Flacco $24,750,000
Ben Roethlisberger $23,200,000
Russell Wilson $21,700,00
Matt Ryan $21,650,000
Cam Newton $21,500,000
Aaron Rodgers $20,900,000
Alex Smith $20,600,000
Colin Kaepernick $19,865,754
Ryan Tannehill $19,800,000
Jay Cutler $17,000,000

rideaducati":kgrr1500 said:

This might give Russell's contract a little more perspective.

Top 11 2016 QB cap hits.

Joe Flacco $28,550,000
Drew Brees $27,400,000
Ben Roethlisberger $23,950,000
Matt Ryan $23,750,000
Matt Stafford $22,500,000
Peyton Manning $21,500,000
Tony Romo $20,835,000
Cam Newton $19,500,000
Aaron Rodgers $19,250,000
Carson Palmer $19,075,000
Russell Wilson $18,540,000


Top 11 2017 cap hits:


Joe Flacco $31,150,000
Tony Romo $24,700,000
Matt Ryan $23,750,000
Carson Palmer $22,675,000
Matt Stafford $22,000,000
Aaron Rodgers $20,300,000
Ryan Tannehill $20,300,000
Cam Newton $20,166,000
Colin Kaepernick $19,365,753
Russell Wilson $18,800,000
Ben Roethlisberger $18,200,000

Top 11 2018 QB cap hits:

Tony Romo $25,200,000
Joe Flacco $24,750,000
Ben Roethlisberger $23,200,000
Russell Wilson $21,700,00
Matt Ryan $21,650,000
Cam Newton $21,500,000
Aaron Rodgers $20,900,000
Alex Smith $20,600,000
Colin Kaepernick $19,865,754
Ryan Tannehill $19,800,000
Jay Cutler $17,000,000

Click to expand...

Yep. Seattle gets to roll over/allocate more cap dollars to positions other than QB.

Just as a comparison

Tony Romo vs. Russ Wilson

2015 $14.97 vs. $7.05
Lets just take this year off the table which is a clear advantage of nearly $8 million.

Going forward it looks like this.
2016 $20.84 vs. $18.54
2017 $24.70 vs. $18.80
2018 $25.20 vs. $21.70
2019 $23.70 vs. $23.20

That comes out to $12.2 million in cap advantage over these 4 seasons (adding this year takes it to $20 million.)