Pandion Haliaetus":3iaxp3as said:
I don't know I think Seahawks will trade out of the first this year.
1. The Seahawks are running out of resources to acquire an elite player and to pay that guy a lot of money like they did with Harvin and Graham.
Yeah, don't expect this again. We're tight on the cap for a good long while
Pandion Haliaetus":3iaxp3as said:
2. The Seahawks kind of got the comp process rolling in 2014, and they've allowed guys they couldn't afford to sort of walk away without going hard in the free agent process to replace talent. 4 comps in 2015, and projected 4 comps in 2016.
3. We actually saw a Seahawks team that had an abundance of picks trade up this year for Tyler Lockett. Can't remember but it might have been 1 of 2 trade ups ever for JS/PC, the other being for Simon or Williams.
Yes, it was the 2nd trade up Seattle has engineered. In the JS/PC era, in trades involving picks only, we've now traded down 8 times and traded up twice.
I would dismiss these notions that Seattle somehow ever feels that there is not enough room on the roster for new players. I've heard from the 'trade up' crowd that finally Seattle would trade up because there aren't enough roster spots for volume drafting. This narrative has been parroted the last 2 years heavily.
So let's look at what really happened:
2014: 7 of the 9 picks made the team. 6 made the active 53. Also 2 UDFAs played in games (Gilliam/Coyle) and 3 UDFAs are on this year's 53 (Bailey, Gilliam and Coyle).
This year, still 7* total players remain in year two. Of those 7, five of them were day 3 or later. Almost half UDFA.
2015: 5 of the 8 picks made the active 53, and 1 UDFA. 50% of the new additions are day 3 or later picks.
I saw a stat that was pretty mind blowing really. 24 of our active 53 (45%) were UDFAs. Seattle, even at the height of success, has continually replenished the same way they always have. We built our roster on day 3 and 4. And we're maintaining it on day 3 and 4.
Those late round picks aren't wasted in the least. Seattle has an unusually high hit rate in the latter part of the draft. It's not really about discovering talent that's overlooked. Seattle's model is a development model. There isn't a ton distinguishing these players from a talent perspective. It's about getting more pupils to mold and develop into NFL players. Seattle doesn't get lucky with quality prospects. The prospects get lucky to learn their craft and profession from the best.
* -- Norwood traded for future pick
Pandion Haliaetus":3iaxp3as said:
4. There are going to be a lot of high profile needs next year, Seahawks are going to need DT depth for sure, RB depth for sure, and depending on which way they go with Sweezy and Okung probably OT depth.
If I'm the Seahawks I just take the next available highest rated need position I have left on my board and kind of don't take the chance, knowing I don't really need extra picks this year, and its very important now to build the youth and start replenishing and developing replacement talent for a lot of veteran players that might not be here in the next 2-4 years.
I've only retained 3 of the 11 picks from the 2013 draft so far.
5 of 9 of the 2014 draft.
And already 2 of the 8 picks from the 2015 draft are currently not with the team.
Maybe its time to play it safe and finally pick a dude even if the pick is at #32.
Every draft is definitely different. But the model works. Consistently. Seattle's model isn't to replace or slot in 'day 1' players. It's to slot in 'day 366' players. We could say easily that 6 of 8 2015 picks are on the team. With only 2 likely impact guys.
But this time next year, we could be saying we got 5 starters on our roster in 2016. Three of them on day 3.
The reality of this final draft of how this roster is built (Pay stars, no middle class), means we aren't paying second contracts. Not for the next two to three years anyway. We kept the core. And the price for that is good players are going to walk and we're going to have to replace 3-5 guys a year every year. The moment we play it safe and reduce the volume is the moment we start having to cap casualty the likes of a Thomas or Lynch or Sherman because we have to resign the likes of a Sweezy or a Hill or an Irvin.
The Day 366 model isn't sexy on draft day. But the strength of the organization is making players into good pros. The more players you can bring through, the more chances you have of getting one to hit. The way the cap situation is set up for Seattle going forward -- we ALWAYS need the extra picks. Because we're needing to cull about 4-6 starter quality players every season just to maintain status quo.
