Nerd Fight: Seattle is #1 in Elo, Green Bay Is #1 in FPI

We relaunched our NFL Elo power ratings on Thursday with a nifty interactive that lets you track where your team stands and how likely it is to win each game. But Elo isn’t the only statistical power rating out there; in fact, our NFL previews used predictions and rankings generated by ESPN’s new Football Power Index (FPI), a system of far greater complexity.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/rati ... -1-in-fpi/

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ELO Predictions: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... edictions/

ELO Rocks!

As it currently stands, the Seahawks are a half point favorite at Green Bay next week. Basically, a toss up (52% Seahawks, 48% Green Bay).

A little surprised to see the 49ers as a 4.5-point favorite over the Vikings with a 2/3 chance to win that game, according to ELO.

Here is the big difference between the ELO ratings and ESPN's FPI ratings:

Seahawks' ELO:
Offensive rank: 6th
Defensive rank: 1st
Special teams rank: 3rd

Seahawks' FPI (ESPN):
Offensive rank: 7th
Defensive rank: 1st
Special teams rank: 31st

Basically, FPI expects our special teams to be even worse than last season, while ELO has somehow correctly collaborated our special teams' expected improvement, i.e. host of great coverage athletes, all three specialists returning, and the addition of Tyler Lockett on returns.

This is cool too: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... edictions/
Record predictions based on ELO

would you rather have Kam Chancellor or Jordy Nelson?

TheRealDTM":6cc3f3aw said:

would you rather have Kam Chancellor or Jordy Nelson?

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IMO, Chancellor . . . and he still has a chance to return at some point at 100% health.

If I was GB, Nelson is the more important to there team, if you are Seattle Kam is the more important player. I say this because Seattle would not get the sane production from Nelson on our Offense and are more Reliant on our defense.

Per their interactive "odds of winning" tool it has Seattle and New England both going 16-0 this year.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... edictions/

It's amazing how many cup cake games the defending SB champions have though.

The only ELO I have ever heard of is Electric Light Orchestra.

Barakas":3ngnnmk7 said:

Per their interactive "odds of winning" tool it has Seattle and New England both going 16-0 this year.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... edictions/

It's amazing how many cup cake games the defending SB champions have though.

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They've simulated an average of 11.1 and 11.7 wins for each team, respectively. If all the individual games have a chance of better than 50% of a win across season, it doesn't imply that they are predicting they will win all games.

Barakas":2c2yf2si said:

Per their interactive "odds of winning" tool it has Seattle and New England both going 16-0 this year.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... edictions/

It's amazing how many cup cake games the defending SB champions have though.

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Favored in every game does not equate to 16-0. When you include their respective probabilities, it equates to around 11 wins apiece.