Hawkscanner
New member
History Lessons from Packers Last Home Loss
Trivia Question for you: When was the last time that Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers lost at Lambeau? :229031_confused2:
A: It was January 5, 2014 – the NFC Wild Card Playoff Game vs. the then 12-4 Jim Harbaugh led San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers came in to Lambeau and shocked the shocked the Green Bay faithful, beating the Packers 23-20
How in the World does this have any shred of relevance to this game tonight?
I’d contend that there are some lessons that can be learned. Let’s dissect this one and see what interesting nuggets present themselves, shall we? …
SF Offense vs. Green Bay Defense …
Colin Kaepernick came up big on that day – but not in the way many people would think. As a passing QB, he had what I would call an average day …
Colin Kaepernick was 16 for 30 on the day … passed for 227 yards … 1 TD (to TE Vernon Davis) … 1 INT … and had a QB rating of 88.8.
But where Kaepernick really hurt the Packers was on the ground that day. He had 98 yards on the ground including a 42 yard scamper that set up a Frank Gore 10 yard TD run just before the end of the 1st Half.
And he was far from done burning the cheese heads with his legs. On a 3rd and 8 with just seconds to go, the Packers chose to blitz. Kaepernick broke containment for an 11 yard run that set up the game winning 33 yard FG from Dawson as time expired.
Michael Crabtree ended up having a BIG day vs. the Pack with 8 catches for 129 yards.
Frank Gore ran for 66 yards and a TD on 20 carries (3.3 yards/carry) – nothing spectacular – just enough to keep the defense honest.
On an interesting side note, Green Bay played without LB Clay Matthews … and lost CB Sam Shields and LB Mike Neal during the course of that game.
Let’s flip over to the other side of the ball …
Green Bay Offense vs. SF Defense …
Faced with enormous pressure all day long, the Green Bay offense struggled out of the gate in that game. In fact, at the end of the 1st Quarter, the Packers had just 6 yards of offense and punted 3 times in that quarter.
On the ground, the Packers moved the ball fairly well, running for 124 yards as a team. Eddie Lacey managed 81 yards rushing on 21 carries (3.86 yards/carry)
Aaron Rodgers though was far from R-E-L-A-X-ed that day.
Aaron Rodgers was 17 for 26 on the day … passed for just 177 yards … 1 TD (to Jordy Nelson) … and had a QB rating of just 57.6.
The Niners harassed him from the get go, focusing on bringing pressure and moving him off his spot. The 49ers sacked Rodgers 4 times in that game and played good, solid, hardcore defense. Though they didn’t come up with any turnovers, they did force 2 fumbles, as both Rodgers and FB John Kuhn laid the ball on the turf.
So, what lessons (if any) can the Seahawks take from this game? I’d contend there are several …
Lesson #1 – Go Ground Times Two…
It goes without saying that if the Seahawks want to win this game, they’ve got to run the ball.
Coming in to this week, Football Outsiders has Green Bay ranked …
#19 overall in Defense DVOA
#8 overall in Pass Defense DVOA (-15.0%)
#31 overall in Run Defense DVOA (24.7%)
FO had Green Bay ranked #19 coming in to this season, so not much has changed in their opinion.
Green Bay finished last season #24 overall in Run Defense DVOA (-1.1%), so they weren’t a stellar run defense BEFORE losing DT Letroy Guion (suspension) and LB Sam Barrington (season ending IR).
Marshawn Lynch has had a great deal of success against the Packers the last couple of times the Seahawks have faced them …
Marshawn Lynch is one thing … but having the threat of a running QB in Russell Wilson is quite another. For the 49ers, the X-factor in their 23-20 playoff win at Lambeau was the legs of Colin Kaepernick. As noted above, Kaepernick had a couple of huge scrambles that turned out to be game breaking plays. Russell Wilson, like Kaepernick, is a dual threat QB that can not only makes plays with his arm, but with his legs as well.
The Packers gave up 189 yards on the ground last week to the Bears. If Wilson were to gash the Pack on a vintage Dangeruss scramble or two, and they are forced to put a spy on him, it just might open things up down field.
With Green Bay coming in to this game without their top 2 run defenders for this game, I contend that could end up being the difference in this game. If the Seahawks can establish the run, that not only opens up play action ... it obviously keeps Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense on the bench. It's hard to score a whole lot of points when you're not on the field.
Bottom Line – Run early … run often with both Lynch and Wilson.
Lesson #2 – Lower The Boom …
In terms of intensity, raw nastiness, and dominance there is perhaps no other defense out there (over the last several years) that compares better to the Seahawks than the Jim Harbaugh led San Francisco 49ers. As noted above, the 49ers brought hard-nosed, tough defense from the get go, bringing sustained pressure and containing Rodgers and keeping that Packer offense mainly in check. They set the tone early in that game, they set it often, and they walked out of one of the toughest places to play in the NFL with a W.
Kam Chancellor or no Kam Chancellor, the Seahawks have got to lower the hammer if they want to win tonight. And like the Niners did, they’ve got to take advantage of key injuries. No Kam Chancellor you say? OK, well the Packers will be without Jordy Nelson -- their top play maker too. And furthermore, we learned this week that RT Bryan Bulaga (arguably the Packers’ best lineman) will miss this game with an injured MCL as well. Michael Bennett and Frank Clark could be primed to have HUGE games against replacement Don Barclay tonight.
The 49ers were able to put sustained pressure on Aaron Rodgers and were able to really limit his effectiveness against them. If the Seahawks front 7 can control the line of scrimmage and bring the heat early and often, I believe we’ll all be smiling come night’s end.
Lesson #3 –Have Prime Time Performances …
PTP’ers shine brightest when the Lights are On. Richard Sherman may call him a mediocre receiver, but there was nothing mediocre about Michael Crabtree’s performance against the Packers in Lambeau on that day. Michael Crabtree had a BIG day vs. the Pack in that win at Lambeau with 8 catches for 129 yards. Lost in the shuffle of that win is the fact that Vernon Davis stepped up with a big 28 yard score in that game. Like the Seahawks, it should be pointed out that the Packers have had similar problems with the 49ers over the last few years. The Packers ended up losing to the Niners in Week 1 of the 2013 season to the 49ers … and there were some big time performances in that game as well. Anquan Boldin (13 catches, 208 yards receiving, 1TD) and Vernon Davis (98 yards, 2TD’s) both gave the Packers secondary fits in that game.
Vernon Davis is one of the elite TE’s in this game and a matchup problem for nearly everyone. And like the Niners, the Seahawks now find themselves in possession of one of the game’s elite TE’s as well. Jimmy Graham has consistently come up with big time plays in big time games throughout his entire career. If the Seahawks are going to pull off the upset, they’re going to need some prime time performances from the likes of Jimmy Graham, Tyler Lockett, Doug Baldwin, and the rest of the receiving corps. With the Seahawks offense likely to outperform their defense, they’re going to need guys to step up and make plays.
Parting Thoughts …
Pete Carroll’s teams have always had a tendency to shine the most when the lights are the brightest. We’ve certainly seen that here during his time in Seattle, as this team gets up for prime time games. Despite last week’s disappointing performance, I expect a whale of a contest tonight. Green Bay’s defense is nowhere close to that of the Rams, and for that reason alone I see this one coming down to the wire. The 49ers marched in to Lambeau Field and were able to steal a win by taking advantage of an injury depleted Green Bay defense with big time plays and through hard-nosed tough defense. I’m looking for the same things from the Hawks in this game tonight. I believe the Packers and their fans are worried about this game tonight because in the Seahawks they see a team who is capable of doing exactly what the 49ers did to them back on January 5, 2014. Personally, I’m thinking that’s exactly what’s going to happen …
Seahawks 31
Packers 28
Trivia Question for you: When was the last time that Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers lost at Lambeau? :229031_confused2:
A: It was January 5, 2014 – the NFC Wild Card Playoff Game vs. the then 12-4 Jim Harbaugh led San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers came in to Lambeau and shocked the shocked the Green Bay faithful, beating the Packers 23-20
How in the World does this have any shred of relevance to this game tonight?
I’d contend that there are some lessons that can be learned. Let’s dissect this one and see what interesting nuggets present themselves, shall we? …
SF Offense vs. Green Bay Defense …
Colin Kaepernick came up big on that day – but not in the way many people would think. As a passing QB, he had what I would call an average day …
Colin Kaepernick was 16 for 30 on the day … passed for 227 yards … 1 TD (to TE Vernon Davis) … 1 INT … and had a QB rating of 88.8.
But where Kaepernick really hurt the Packers was on the ground that day. He had 98 yards on the ground including a 42 yard scamper that set up a Frank Gore 10 yard TD run just before the end of the 1st Half.
And he was far from done burning the cheese heads with his legs. On a 3rd and 8 with just seconds to go, the Packers chose to blitz. Kaepernick broke containment for an 11 yard run that set up the game winning 33 yard FG from Dawson as time expired.
Michael Crabtree ended up having a BIG day vs. the Pack with 8 catches for 129 yards.
Frank Gore ran for 66 yards and a TD on 20 carries (3.3 yards/carry) – nothing spectacular – just enough to keep the defense honest.
On an interesting side note, Green Bay played without LB Clay Matthews … and lost CB Sam Shields and LB Mike Neal during the course of that game.
Let’s flip over to the other side of the ball …
Green Bay Offense vs. SF Defense …
Faced with enormous pressure all day long, the Green Bay offense struggled out of the gate in that game. In fact, at the end of the 1st Quarter, the Packers had just 6 yards of offense and punted 3 times in that quarter.
On the ground, the Packers moved the ball fairly well, running for 124 yards as a team. Eddie Lacey managed 81 yards rushing on 21 carries (3.86 yards/carry)
Aaron Rodgers though was far from R-E-L-A-X-ed that day.
Aaron Rodgers was 17 for 26 on the day … passed for just 177 yards … 1 TD (to Jordy Nelson) … and had a QB rating of just 57.6.
The Niners harassed him from the get go, focusing on bringing pressure and moving him off his spot. The 49ers sacked Rodgers 4 times in that game and played good, solid, hardcore defense. Though they didn’t come up with any turnovers, they did force 2 fumbles, as both Rodgers and FB John Kuhn laid the ball on the turf.
So, what lessons (if any) can the Seahawks take from this game? I’d contend there are several …
Lesson #1 – Go Ground Times Two…
It goes without saying that if the Seahawks want to win this game, they’ve got to run the ball.
Coming in to this week, Football Outsiders has Green Bay ranked …
#19 overall in Defense DVOA
#8 overall in Pass Defense DVOA (-15.0%)
#31 overall in Run Defense DVOA (24.7%)
FO had Green Bay ranked #19 coming in to this season, so not much has changed in their opinion.
Green Bay finished last season #24 overall in Run Defense DVOA (-1.1%), so they weren’t a stellar run defense BEFORE losing DT Letroy Guion (suspension) and LB Sam Barrington (season ending IR).
Marshawn Lynch has had a great deal of success against the Packers the last couple of times the Seahawks have faced them …
Marshawn Lynch is one thing … but having the threat of a running QB in Russell Wilson is quite another. For the 49ers, the X-factor in their 23-20 playoff win at Lambeau was the legs of Colin Kaepernick. As noted above, Kaepernick had a couple of huge scrambles that turned out to be game breaking plays. Russell Wilson, like Kaepernick, is a dual threat QB that can not only makes plays with his arm, but with his legs as well.
The Packers gave up 189 yards on the ground last week to the Bears. If Wilson were to gash the Pack on a vintage Dangeruss scramble or two, and they are forced to put a spy on him, it just might open things up down field.
With Green Bay coming in to this game without their top 2 run defenders for this game, I contend that could end up being the difference in this game. If the Seahawks can establish the run, that not only opens up play action ... it obviously keeps Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense on the bench. It's hard to score a whole lot of points when you're not on the field.
Bottom Line – Run early … run often with both Lynch and Wilson.
Lesson #2 – Lower The Boom …
In terms of intensity, raw nastiness, and dominance there is perhaps no other defense out there (over the last several years) that compares better to the Seahawks than the Jim Harbaugh led San Francisco 49ers. As noted above, the 49ers brought hard-nosed, tough defense from the get go, bringing sustained pressure and containing Rodgers and keeping that Packer offense mainly in check. They set the tone early in that game, they set it often, and they walked out of one of the toughest places to play in the NFL with a W.
Kam Chancellor or no Kam Chancellor, the Seahawks have got to lower the hammer if they want to win tonight. And like the Niners did, they’ve got to take advantage of key injuries. No Kam Chancellor you say? OK, well the Packers will be without Jordy Nelson -- their top play maker too. And furthermore, we learned this week that RT Bryan Bulaga (arguably the Packers’ best lineman) will miss this game with an injured MCL as well. Michael Bennett and Frank Clark could be primed to have HUGE games against replacement Don Barclay tonight.
The 49ers were able to put sustained pressure on Aaron Rodgers and were able to really limit his effectiveness against them. If the Seahawks front 7 can control the line of scrimmage and bring the heat early and often, I believe we’ll all be smiling come night’s end.
Lesson #3 –Have Prime Time Performances …
PTP’ers shine brightest when the Lights are On. Richard Sherman may call him a mediocre receiver, but there was nothing mediocre about Michael Crabtree’s performance against the Packers in Lambeau on that day. Michael Crabtree had a BIG day vs. the Pack in that win at Lambeau with 8 catches for 129 yards. Lost in the shuffle of that win is the fact that Vernon Davis stepped up with a big 28 yard score in that game. Like the Seahawks, it should be pointed out that the Packers have had similar problems with the 49ers over the last few years. The Packers ended up losing to the Niners in Week 1 of the 2013 season to the 49ers … and there were some big time performances in that game as well. Anquan Boldin (13 catches, 208 yards receiving, 1TD) and Vernon Davis (98 yards, 2TD’s) both gave the Packers secondary fits in that game.
Vernon Davis is one of the elite TE’s in this game and a matchup problem for nearly everyone. And like the Niners, the Seahawks now find themselves in possession of one of the game’s elite TE’s as well. Jimmy Graham has consistently come up with big time plays in big time games throughout his entire career. If the Seahawks are going to pull off the upset, they’re going to need some prime time performances from the likes of Jimmy Graham, Tyler Lockett, Doug Baldwin, and the rest of the receiving corps. With the Seahawks offense likely to outperform their defense, they’re going to need guys to step up and make plays.
Parting Thoughts …
Pete Carroll’s teams have always had a tendency to shine the most when the lights are the brightest. We’ve certainly seen that here during his time in Seattle, as this team gets up for prime time games. Despite last week’s disappointing performance, I expect a whale of a contest tonight. Green Bay’s defense is nowhere close to that of the Rams, and for that reason alone I see this one coming down to the wire. The 49ers marched in to Lambeau Field and were able to steal a win by taking advantage of an injury depleted Green Bay defense with big time plays and through hard-nosed tough defense. I’m looking for the same things from the Hawks in this game tonight. I believe the Packers and their fans are worried about this game tonight because in the Seahawks they see a team who is capable of doing exactly what the 49ers did to them back on January 5, 2014. Personally, I’m thinking that’s exactly what’s going to happen …
Seahawks 31
Packers 28
