The 3rd down plays

SalishHawkFan

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starting the possession after we went ahead 24-7. I'd like to note that Rawls averaged 7.3 ypc this game.

5:23 - 3rd: Seahawks get the ball at their own 2 yd line. We'd held them at midfield yet again and yet again they pinned us deep. But we were dominating up to this point. A defensive offsides, a recalled 39 yd pass to Lockett, 13 yds on 3 carries by Rawls plus a 4 yd dump to Tukuafu got us to 3rd and 3 at our own 20.

Bevell calls up a pass, not a run. Sack for 7 yd loss.

Cincinatti goes three and out. Defense doing its job ever since the opening drive.

0:15 - 3rd: Seattle takes over at its own 16. Slight improvement in field position. After 6 yds on 2 carries by Rawls it is 3rd and 4.

Bevell calls up a pass, not a run. Incomplete.

Four plays later, the score is 24-14.

12:18 - 4th: Seahawks take over at their 20. A pass to Willson and a plunge by Rawls gets us a first down at the 30. 2 carries for 8 yds by Rawls gives us a 3rd and 2 at the 38.

Bevell calls up a pass, not a run. Incomplete.

11 plays later, it's 24-21.

3:38 - 4th: Seahawks again take over at their own 20. After 2 carries for 6 yds by Rawls, it is 3rd and 4 at the 26.

Bevell calls up a pass, not a run. Wilson is sacked for 0 yds. Maybe it was a run, but it wasn't to the RB.

The Seahawks get the ball to start OT. They start to drive with some short passes, despite Jackson - not Rawls - having 2 carries for no gain. Then a holding penalty on Okung puts them in 2nd and 15 territory. Do we try to grab a 7 yd pass to make the play semi managable? Nope. Pass deep to Lockett. This brings us to 3rd and 15.

NOW we throw a short dump to Jackson for 7 yds and have to punt. Those two calls were ass backwards.

9:03 - OT: Seattle starts at their own 20. Gilliam kills us with a 10 yd penalty to put us at 1st and 20 from the 10. Obviously, Bevell can't give the ball to Rawls. A great pass to Jackson, who rumbles for 12 puts us at 2nd and 8. Incomplete pass puts us at 3rd and 8.

Obviously, it's a pass play. Wilson gets sacked for 8 yds.

Other than OT, Bevell refused to give the RB the ball on 3rd and 4 or less, despite him averaging 7.3 ypc.

I've read studies that show the data on running vs passing on 3rd and 5, 3rd and 4, etc. And on 3rd and 4 or less, running the ball converts first downs more often than passing the ball. That's in the NFL in general. Since we're the premier rushing team, and considering our RB had 169 yds and 7.3 ypc, it stands to reason our success rate could be expected to be even higher.

But each 3rd down, Bevell called for a pass. Whatever you think of Wilson, it's Bevell who is the problem and has been for years.
 

mrt144

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Maybe it's simple:

Bevell reacted to the most recent events and gauged his future odds based on it.

Meh Run Meh Run, what do I do? Not a meh run, but a pass for 4ish yards. What routes go 4 yards? Outs!

Rinse, Repeat.
 

Zebulon Dak

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We've been running pretty consistently this season in short yard situations, especially on 3rd & 4th, without much success.
 
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SalishHawkFan

SalishHawkFan

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Zebulon Dak":1ps47qw7 said:
We've been running pretty consistently this season in short yard situations, especially on 3rd & 4th, without much success.
The Bengals game up to the meltdown already posted:

3rd and 1 at SEA 29 (9:55 - 1st) T.Rawls up the middle to SEA 31 for 2 yards (C.Dunlap)

3rd and 4 at CHI 13 (5:58 - 1st) (Shotgun) R.Wilson sacked at CHI 13 for 0 yards (J.Jenkins)

3rd and 2 at SEA 27 (13:35 - 3rd) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass short right to J.Graham to SEA 31 for 4 yards (V.Rey)

That's 1/2 passing and 1/1 rushing. Making us 1/6 passing for the day.

Vs Detroit:

3rd and 4 at SEA 36 (8:32 - 1st) (Shotgun) R.Wilson scrambles right end pushed ob at SEA 41 for 5 yards (J.Ihedigbo)

3rd and 1 at SEA 18 (6:47 - 3rd) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass short right to L.Willson to SEA 27 for 9 yards (G.Quin; D.Slay)

3rd and 3 at DET 43 (2:38 - 3rd) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass incomplete deep middle to L.Willson

3rd and 4 at SEA 36 (8:32 - 4th) Caraun Reid 27 Yd Fumble Return (Matt Prater Kick). This was the Wilson strip on a pass play.

3rd and 2 at SEA 32 (7:19 - 4th) (Shotgun) T.Rawls right end to SEA 33 for 1 yard (J.Ihedigbo)

3rd and 2 at SEA 28 (1:34 - 4th) R.Wilson pass deep right to J.Kearse pushed ob at DET 22 for 50 yards (R.Mathis) Generally considered a stupid play call.

I see 6 plays. 4 called pass. 1 RB rush. 1 Wilson scramble. Rawls fell a yd shy. Rushes were 1/2. Passes were 1/4. Rawls was 0/1.

Looking back further I see:

Pass: 3/13 w/ 1 INT
RB Rush: 6/9 w/ 2 Big Plays
Wilson scramble 0/1

So season total success rate on 3rd and 4 or less:
Passing: 22% in which 2 plays resulted in 10 pts for the opponent.
Rushing: 62% in which 2 plays were for 15+ yds.


But in today's game, once we led 24-7, Bevell - not Wilson - dialed up nothing but pass plays, none of which succeeded. Even though Rawls succeeded earlier in the game and opposite of what you say, the Hawks have been stomping it in the rush on 3rd and 4 or less this season. 62% is their highest success rate in the Carroll era.

So yeah, pass it 6 (or 7) out of 8 times. When the odds are nearly 3 times as likely you'll succeed if you run it instead.

Fire Bevell.
 

Zebulon Dak

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Sacks happen and fumbles happen and interceptions happen, it's not as simple as whether you chose a run play or a pass play. I appreciate your stats and breakdowns but they're not as telling as you think they are. We're obviously struggling on offense but it's not because we're passing on 3rd vs running. It's because we're struggling in general, in most situations.
 

joeseahawks

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We got a player who is 6ft7 and can catch everything.
We have another one who is 6ft5 (Matthews) who caught everything thrown at him in the SB.
Someway, somehow, we can't even throw the ball his way? Not even once on 3rd down or second down?
We are just blowing away opportunities ... it is not even funny anymore. We cannot make first down to save our lives.
 

theENGLISHseahawk

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Cincy was probably playing the run on those downs though. A pass might've been the sensible call.

The issue I have is the types of pass. Those downs were the reason you traded for Jimmy Graham. And he was nowhere to be found, whether he was featured or not.
 

Timmahawk

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theENGLISHseahawk":6itvclgf said:
Cincy was probably playing the run on those downs though. A pass might've been the sensible call.

The issue I have is the types of pass. Those downs were the reason you traded for Jimmy Graham. And he was nowhere to be found, whether he was featured or not.

Yup.

It's the type of pass we are running. Where the H in our playbook is the short passing game. It seems that every 3rd and 5 or less, we run a long pass play, which sometimes works because RW gets pressured and scrambles for a 1st down.

Then on 3rd and longs, if we are not empty set, we almost always play action from the shotgun, which we only handoff to when it's 3rd and forever.

I'm also pissed that the offense went even more vanilla than they normally are, which is extremely hard to wrap my head around, in the second half. With an entire quarter and a half left, every single series was run run pass until OT. I know with a 17 point lead you want to run the clock, but it would have been nice to see the killer instinct and a few 1st down high percentage passes to keep Cincinnati off balance.
 

Ozzy

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Brock explained this well today on the radio and yesterday on twitter. We were way to predictable in our routes and play calling and it allowed Cincy to get really comfortable. They were running our routes for us because they knew exactly what we were going to do. Anyone who listens to Brock knows he is a homer to a fault at times(and I love Brock) so for him to be so critical is telling to me. Pete/Bevell have to change something.

I can't stand NE but one thing they don't do is take their foot off the gas. I'm fine with Pete doing it but not in the third quarter.
 

Laloosh

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SalishHawkFan":kh1f6ao4 said:
Zebulon Dak":kh1f6ao4 said:
We've been running pretty consistently this season in short yard situations, especially on 3rd & 4th, without much success.
The Bengals game up to the meltdown already posted:

3rd and 1 at SEA 29 (9:55 - 1st) T.Rawls up the middle to SEA 31 for 2 yards (C.Dunlap)

3rd and 4 at CHI 13 (5:58 - 1st) (Shotgun) R.Wilson sacked at CHI 13 for 0 yards (J.Jenkins)

3rd and 2 at SEA 27 (13:35 - 3rd) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass short right to J.Graham to SEA 31 for 4 yards (V.Rey)

That's 1/2 passing and 1/1 rushing. Making us 1/6 passing for the day.

Vs Detroit:

3rd and 4 at SEA 36 (8:32 - 1st) (Shotgun) R.Wilson scrambles right end pushed ob at SEA 41 for 5 yards (J.Ihedigbo)

3rd and 1 at SEA 18 (6:47 - 3rd) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass short right to L.Willson to SEA 27 for 9 yards (G.Quin; D.Slay)

3rd and 3 at DET 43 (2:38 - 3rd) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass incomplete deep middle to L.Willson

3rd and 4 at SEA 36 (8:32 - 4th) Caraun Reid 27 Yd Fumble Return (Matt Prater Kick). This was the Wilson strip on a pass play.

3rd and 2 at SEA 32 (7:19 - 4th) (Shotgun) T.Rawls right end to SEA 33 for 1 yard (J.Ihedigbo)

3rd and 2 at SEA 28 (1:34 - 4th) R.Wilson pass deep right to J.Kearse pushed ob at DET 22 for 50 yards (R.Mathis) Generally considered a stupid play call.

I see 6 plays. 4 called pass. 1 RB rush. 1 Wilson scramble. Rawls fell a yd shy. Rushes were 1/2. Passes were 1/4. Rawls was 0/1.

Looking back further I see:

Pass: 3/13 w/ 1 INT
RB Rush: 6/9 w/ 2 Big Plays
Wilson scramble 0/1

So season total success rate on 3rd and 4 or less:
Passing: 22% in which 2 plays resulted in 10 pts for the opponent.
Rushing: 62% in which 2 plays were for 15+ yds.


But in today's game, once we led 24-7, Bevell - not Wilson - dialed up nothing but pass plays, none of which succeeded. Even though Rawls succeeded earlier in the game and opposite of what you say, the Hawks have been stomping it in the rush on 3rd and 4 or less this season. 62% is their highest success rate in the Carroll era.

So yeah, pass it 6 (or 7) out of 8 times. When the odds are nearly 3 times as likely you'll succeed if you run it instead.

Fire Bevell.

We've only rushed three times on 3rd and 3 or 3rd and 4. There's a difference between 3rd and 4 and 3rd and 1 or 2 (which means 9/12 were 3rd and 1 or 3rd and 2). We've converted 1/3 on 3rd and 3 to 4.

If you go back to 2012, this team has passed 80% of the time on 3rd and 4. We're not going to see those tendencies change (and that's probably why CIN was looking for play-pass out of the "I" on 3rd and whatever).
 

Optimus25

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theENGLISHseahawk":1d87kpqe said:
Cincy was probably playing the run on those downs though. A pass might've been the sensible call.

The issue I have is the types of pass. Those downs were the reason you traded for Jimmy Graham. And he was nowhere to be found, whether he was featured or not.

Can we repost this to some billboards in the Seattle area please?
 
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SalishHawkFan

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Laloosh":20xe2m3g said:
We've only rushed three times on 3rd and 3 or 3rd and 4. There's a difference between 3rd and 4 and 3rd and 1 or 2 (which means 9/12 were 3rd and 1 or 3rd and 2). We've converted 1/3 on 3rd and 3 to 4.

If you go back to 2012, this team has passed 80% of the time on 3rd and 4. We're not going to see those tendencies change (and that's probably why CIN was looking for play-pass out of the "I" on 3rd and whatever).
Agreed we're not going to see these tendencies change, until, that is, we FIRE BEVELL.

Studies have already shown that rushing on 3rd and 4 is much more likely to succeed than passing. That Bevell has no clue about this and runs only 20% of the time is nothing new to those of us who have been watching - and screaming at the TV.
 

Laloosh

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SalishHawkFan":mactjr0d said:
Laloosh":mactjr0d said:
We've only rushed three times on 3rd and 3 or 3rd and 4. There's a difference between 3rd and 4 and 3rd and 1 or 2 (which means 9/12 were 3rd and 1 or 3rd and 2). We've converted 1/3 on 3rd and 3 to 4.

If you go back to 2012, this team has passed 80% of the time on 3rd and 4. We're not going to see those tendencies change (and that's probably why CIN was looking for play-pass out of the "I" on 3rd and whatever).
Agreed we're not going to see these tendencies change, until, that is, we FIRE BEVELL.

Studies have already shown that rushing on 3rd and 4 is much more likely to succeed than passing. That Bevell has no clue about this and runs only 20% of the time is nothing new to those of us who have been watching - and screaming at the TV.

Well, even if we did, prior attempts have not gone well (only converting 33%).

I should clarify that I'm in favor of it. For some reason find myself playing devil's advocate and I don't know why but I can't help it.
 

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