My turn! My turn!
Thanksgiving is almost here, and unlike the last 3 years we are mulling if the season is lost, what went wrong. Blame is assigned. Accusations fly. None of it helps. We are addicted to winning. Like everyone else Ive sought to figure out where the wrong turn(s) were. The root of this post is my dinner with Sammy0521, who I had dinner with a couple nights ago.
Everyone knows the basics of the Titanic story, the worlds largest ever metaphor for hubris. It wasnt just hubris that sent it to the bottom though, it was also White Star Line forgetting what exactly had made it one of the two best passenger lines in the world. On its maiden voyage, White Star Lines got away from from some of its key points. It was never the FASTEST, those ships belonged to Cunard. White Star Lines had the most luxurious ships and the best trained crew.
The Titanic was the most luxurious..but on its maiden voyage it also tried to meet its time schedule.. to go faster than anyone expected. And it put crew together at the last minute, cancelling another ships voyage (due to a coal miners strike) combining crew that hadnt worked together before. Both played a huge part in the deaths of 2200 people days later.
For me, the Seahawks this year have done the same thing. And there, for me, is most of the blame for the season.
For me, the key to the Seahawks 2012 to 2014 was Moneyball, in many aspects.
Its a passing league and defenses spend that way: defenses blow their budgets bringing in 3 quality CBs if they can and pass rushers. Against that the Seahawks ran the ball. Your 25 million dollar CB that is usually used to shut down Antonio Brown or Julio Jones..against the Seahawks.. baby sits Kearse or Baldwin.. who dont warrant that good of a CB, but you still have to cover him. Meanwhile your 12 million dollar pass rushing monster only got 20 to 25 chances to rush instead of 30 to 40, and instead exhausted himself against a rushing block all day.. when he did get to rush, he faced a young, dynamic QB who was just as fast.
Because our offense was structured against the grain, it could be built on the cheap, and was. We went to the Super Bowl in 2014 with an all UDFA receiver corps, street free agents at FB and 2 of the 3 TE positions, (the other a 5th rounder), a former D lineman at guard, and a 3rd round qb that is a franchise QB, but only if used a certain way..which again worked mostly because no one else did it that way.
On defense the key was arrogant players that did one thing well for the most part, with an elite safety set to pick up the slack. The attitude and lack of self doubt meant players were free to excel in their window.
Then this past offseason happened... and I think some bad decisions were made. Some were purely bad and hurt our "money ball" concept, and some were bad decisions you had to live with.
Lynch asked for and got more money. I love Lynch as a player. But I dont love Lynch 12 million dollars worth. And this isnt 20-20 hindsight, I said it at the time. Lynch is better than, say, Blount.. but for the build of this team, I think its better to have Blount and 10 million in cap than Lynch. The team needs a PHYSICAL presence, of course. And Lynch is the best at that. But we dont need "the best", we need a RB that sets tone. Lynch's cap money and the dead money from Harvin would have brought in O line.
The Seahawks tried to Moneyball the O line..get more value than other teams see by doing things in an unorthodox way. This has worked so often for them they felt comfortable with this. But this wasnt one player on a line of 5..this year they did it at 3 of the 5 positions and even PC this week admitted it hasnt worked as he thought it would.
Cary Williams. We ask our CBs to do one thing really well, be good at another, and help at the rest. Cover the deep patterns to perfection, be good against the run.. tackle well on the rest. Cary Williams is BUILT like what we needed and the Seahawks assumed he could learn the right way. This week again PC admitted he hasnt. Watch the games. Williams is an ok CB.. ok at everything..but we needed him to be really good at one. In games he still doesnt use the "step-kick" technique.. he is the same guy he was in Philly. This gamble also failed.
Bobby Wagner. I love Bobby. But in my opinion, this was too much too pay for his role in the defense.
And then Russell Wilson. And this is the contradiction in the Seahawks philosophy that I am still trying to figure out the work around for. I agree you need a Franchise QB to win Super Bowls. But I love that the Seahawks were building an offense to take advantage of what Defenses dont spend money on. So, if you are going to pay Wilson 22 million.. 1/3rd of the budget on offense.. you either have to get bang for your buck and throw more.. or admit you are sort of eating money on offense. And you still have to be willing to use him in the way that earned him the 22 million. Wilson isnt taking games over as much and part is he is waiting longer and longer every year to be willing to pull the ball from Lynch on the read options and run. Defenses actually havent caught up. Watch the tape. The DE will crash the line and Wilson will NOT keep the ball in the first half. Quite the opposite, one reason Lynch isnt getting the yards this year is that defenses have caught on that Wilson WONT keep the ball anymore. Anyway.. the over problem here is we need to pay 22 million for a QB on a team that doesnt want to be a passing team. And cant be. We havent built ourselves like that.
Jimmy Graham. When we got Graham I was excited.. unlike Harvin, you dont need to build the team around him or call special plays for him. I heard him say "Im 6ft 7, I can block if I want to block" and I nearly wet myself. I went to 4 days of training camp and watched him dominate. Then the games started. Graham apparently doesnt want to block, if what he said is true. Moreover, he tips off defenses. And, back to what Seattle does..this is bad Money Ball. For what we need him to do, we would be just as well served using Luke Willson and having brought Moeaki. Graham is MUCH better. But if we want to throw the ball just 25 times a game..and target the TE position 8 times.. then is it really smart to spend 9 times as much on that position?
Overall, we are spending money in the wrong places and it has taken away the identity of the offense. I dont know what to do about the QB position..but JS and PC need to see that they have done best when they are NOT spending money on receivers, because as I wrote earlier.. whether its Kearse or a great WR out there, the odds are the defense is covering with expensive CBs. And 5 "B-" receivers will actually win the day against a team that has an "A" CB, a B+ CB, and 3 C+ to D+ CBs. Thats how Seattle has had the success theyve had..cancel the talent of the other team, and invest where it isnt matched. Theyve gotten away from that.
And finally , there is this. Every year we say "well, based on where we draft, its better to get ________ instead of who wed get at that position." But that means we are now short two cheap number one draft picks for a guy who isnt on the team now and one who probably wont be here next year Id guess. 4 or 5 years of cheap salary can make up for getting a guy of lesser talent because it means you can bring some one else in. If Unger had been traded for picks, and we didnt get Williams..we could have kept Maxwell, a position where in our philosophy it makes sense to spend money.
I think JS and PC are great, but I think theyve lost focus a little on what they were doing and how they were doing it. I hope they can get back to effective MoneyBall this next offseason. Get O linemen that specialize in the run but are only so so in pass protection so they are cheap.. get depth at CB, let young hungry players play.
Thanksgiving is almost here, and unlike the last 3 years we are mulling if the season is lost, what went wrong. Blame is assigned. Accusations fly. None of it helps. We are addicted to winning. Like everyone else Ive sought to figure out where the wrong turn(s) were. The root of this post is my dinner with Sammy0521, who I had dinner with a couple nights ago.
Everyone knows the basics of the Titanic story, the worlds largest ever metaphor for hubris. It wasnt just hubris that sent it to the bottom though, it was also White Star Line forgetting what exactly had made it one of the two best passenger lines in the world. On its maiden voyage, White Star Lines got away from from some of its key points. It was never the FASTEST, those ships belonged to Cunard. White Star Lines had the most luxurious ships and the best trained crew.
The Titanic was the most luxurious..but on its maiden voyage it also tried to meet its time schedule.. to go faster than anyone expected. And it put crew together at the last minute, cancelling another ships voyage (due to a coal miners strike) combining crew that hadnt worked together before. Both played a huge part in the deaths of 2200 people days later.
For me, the Seahawks this year have done the same thing. And there, for me, is most of the blame for the season.
For me, the key to the Seahawks 2012 to 2014 was Moneyball, in many aspects.
Its a passing league and defenses spend that way: defenses blow their budgets bringing in 3 quality CBs if they can and pass rushers. Against that the Seahawks ran the ball. Your 25 million dollar CB that is usually used to shut down Antonio Brown or Julio Jones..against the Seahawks.. baby sits Kearse or Baldwin.. who dont warrant that good of a CB, but you still have to cover him. Meanwhile your 12 million dollar pass rushing monster only got 20 to 25 chances to rush instead of 30 to 40, and instead exhausted himself against a rushing block all day.. when he did get to rush, he faced a young, dynamic QB who was just as fast.
Because our offense was structured against the grain, it could be built on the cheap, and was. We went to the Super Bowl in 2014 with an all UDFA receiver corps, street free agents at FB and 2 of the 3 TE positions, (the other a 5th rounder), a former D lineman at guard, and a 3rd round qb that is a franchise QB, but only if used a certain way..which again worked mostly because no one else did it that way.
On defense the key was arrogant players that did one thing well for the most part, with an elite safety set to pick up the slack. The attitude and lack of self doubt meant players were free to excel in their window.
Then this past offseason happened... and I think some bad decisions were made. Some were purely bad and hurt our "money ball" concept, and some were bad decisions you had to live with.
Lynch asked for and got more money. I love Lynch as a player. But I dont love Lynch 12 million dollars worth. And this isnt 20-20 hindsight, I said it at the time. Lynch is better than, say, Blount.. but for the build of this team, I think its better to have Blount and 10 million in cap than Lynch. The team needs a PHYSICAL presence, of course. And Lynch is the best at that. But we dont need "the best", we need a RB that sets tone. Lynch's cap money and the dead money from Harvin would have brought in O line.
The Seahawks tried to Moneyball the O line..get more value than other teams see by doing things in an unorthodox way. This has worked so often for them they felt comfortable with this. But this wasnt one player on a line of 5..this year they did it at 3 of the 5 positions and even PC this week admitted it hasnt worked as he thought it would.
Cary Williams. We ask our CBs to do one thing really well, be good at another, and help at the rest. Cover the deep patterns to perfection, be good against the run.. tackle well on the rest. Cary Williams is BUILT like what we needed and the Seahawks assumed he could learn the right way. This week again PC admitted he hasnt. Watch the games. Williams is an ok CB.. ok at everything..but we needed him to be really good at one. In games he still doesnt use the "step-kick" technique.. he is the same guy he was in Philly. This gamble also failed.
Bobby Wagner. I love Bobby. But in my opinion, this was too much too pay for his role in the defense.
And then Russell Wilson. And this is the contradiction in the Seahawks philosophy that I am still trying to figure out the work around for. I agree you need a Franchise QB to win Super Bowls. But I love that the Seahawks were building an offense to take advantage of what Defenses dont spend money on. So, if you are going to pay Wilson 22 million.. 1/3rd of the budget on offense.. you either have to get bang for your buck and throw more.. or admit you are sort of eating money on offense. And you still have to be willing to use him in the way that earned him the 22 million. Wilson isnt taking games over as much and part is he is waiting longer and longer every year to be willing to pull the ball from Lynch on the read options and run. Defenses actually havent caught up. Watch the tape. The DE will crash the line and Wilson will NOT keep the ball in the first half. Quite the opposite, one reason Lynch isnt getting the yards this year is that defenses have caught on that Wilson WONT keep the ball anymore. Anyway.. the over problem here is we need to pay 22 million for a QB on a team that doesnt want to be a passing team. And cant be. We havent built ourselves like that.
Jimmy Graham. When we got Graham I was excited.. unlike Harvin, you dont need to build the team around him or call special plays for him. I heard him say "Im 6ft 7, I can block if I want to block" and I nearly wet myself. I went to 4 days of training camp and watched him dominate. Then the games started. Graham apparently doesnt want to block, if what he said is true. Moreover, he tips off defenses. And, back to what Seattle does..this is bad Money Ball. For what we need him to do, we would be just as well served using Luke Willson and having brought Moeaki. Graham is MUCH better. But if we want to throw the ball just 25 times a game..and target the TE position 8 times.. then is it really smart to spend 9 times as much on that position?
Overall, we are spending money in the wrong places and it has taken away the identity of the offense. I dont know what to do about the QB position..but JS and PC need to see that they have done best when they are NOT spending money on receivers, because as I wrote earlier.. whether its Kearse or a great WR out there, the odds are the defense is covering with expensive CBs. And 5 "B-" receivers will actually win the day against a team that has an "A" CB, a B+ CB, and 3 C+ to D+ CBs. Thats how Seattle has had the success theyve had..cancel the talent of the other team, and invest where it isnt matched. Theyve gotten away from that.
And finally , there is this. Every year we say "well, based on where we draft, its better to get ________ instead of who wed get at that position." But that means we are now short two cheap number one draft picks for a guy who isnt on the team now and one who probably wont be here next year Id guess. 4 or 5 years of cheap salary can make up for getting a guy of lesser talent because it means you can bring some one else in. If Unger had been traded for picks, and we didnt get Williams..we could have kept Maxwell, a position where in our philosophy it makes sense to spend money.
I think JS and PC are great, but I think theyve lost focus a little on what they were doing and how they were doing it. I hope they can get back to effective MoneyBall this next offseason. Get O linemen that specialize in the run but are only so so in pass protection so they are cheap.. get depth at CB, let young hungry players play.