Russell and Rawls - The start of something special?

We all love Beast Mode, but I think it's starting to become clear- at least in a small but growing sample size- that Wilson and Rawls have incredibly good synergy so far this season.

Rawls has seen significant touches in five games this year, getting 16+ carries against Chicago, Detroit, Cincy, SF, and Pitt.

Wilson's four best passer rating games of the season? Chicago, Detroit, SF, Pitt. And Wilson's game against Cincy with Rawls was nearly his 6th best.


In five games with Rawls, here are Wilson's combined numbers:

Counting stats: 138 attempts, 100 completions, 1340 yards, 11 passing touchdowns, 1 interception
Rate stats: 72.5% completion rate, 9.7 YPA, 126.5 QB rating.


Here are Wilson's numbers in all other games this season:

Counting stats: 157 attempts, 99 completions, 1038 yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 6 interceptions
Rate stats: 63.1% completion rate, 6.6 YPA, 70.5 QB rating.


Normally I wouldn't make too big a deal out of how a QB performs with a specific RB, but with a sample size of 11 games and the split being so enormous, I think it's time to consider that Rawls might actually be impacting our entire offense beyond his ability to generate rushing yards.

Rawls is a threat similar to a healthy Marshawn right now. Even when it looks like he'll be held to no gain he gets 4-6 yards and when his run looks like a small gain he'll break a tavkle or two for 10+ yards. That requires a lot of attention from the defense, which opens up room for the passing game.

I'm liking what I see from Rawls, but it annoys me to see him have early success, and then get very minimal touches for long stretches. They stuck with him consistently in the 49ers game, but he wasn't featured enough yesterday IMO. When he was given the ball in the 2nd half, it was for the most part in very predictable situations and he wasn't as effective. Can't complain with 39 points and a W against a team I can't stand, but I think there was room to take more of that load off of Russell yesterday.

timmat":b8xu47vt said:

I'm liking what I see from Rawls, but it annoys me to see him have early success, and then get very minimal touches for long stretches. They stuck with him consistently in the 49ers game, but he wasn't featured enough yesterday IMO. When he was given the ball in the 2nd half, it was for the most part in very predictable situations and he wasn't as effective. Can't complain with 39 points and a W against a team I can't stand, but I think there was room to take more of that load off of Russell yesterday.

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I see this too. I could see that they had gone away from Rawls and it was extremely predictable as to what was going on. We won...but it could be better.

Side note...Thanks for the stats Kearly. Great stuff.

timmat":37usifbp said:

I'm liking what I see from Rawls, but it annoys me to see him have early success, and then get very minimal touches for long stretches. They stuck with him consistently in the 49ers game, but he wasn't featured enough yesterday IMO. When he was given the ball in the 2nd half, it was for the most part in very predictable situations and he wasn't as effective. Can't complain with 39 points and a W against a team I can't stand, but I think there was room to take more of that load off of Russell yesterday.

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They might be trying to keep him from wearing down. This is a rookie RB we're talking about, and one that wasn't even a starter in college. The rookie wall is a real thing and Rawls has never had this level of a workload before. Giving him 25 carries a week will definitely wear him down.

Rawls was not a starter at Michigan, a lot of wear and tear saved, he was a starter at Central Michigan though his senior year I believe. H will need a off season to get a NFL body on him though.

I think Rawls is the better back today than Lynch. Even though Lynch has brought us great memories, it would be a mistake to take away carries from Rawls. I met Rawls a couple weeks ago at Joey's. He was there with Frank Clark and some girls. I did go up to them to show them love and told them they were the future of our team. Told Rawls he had a higher YPC than Lynch and he replied grinning with "I Know". Little did know he would eventually retire Marshawn.

timmat":1elv3u8n said:

I'm liking what I see from Rawls, but it annoys me to see him have early success, and then get very minimal touches for long stretches. They stuck with him consistently in the 49ers game, but he wasn't featured enough yesterday IMO. When he was given the ball in the 2nd half, it was for the most part in very predictable situations and he wasn't as effective. Can't complain with 39 points and a W against a team I can't stand, but I think there was room to take more of that load off of Russell yesterday.

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Pittsburgh was starting to stop Rawls. We did a good job at not letting the game get away from us.

Good post Kearly.

The biggest difference I'm seeing between Rawls and Lynch is that Rawls hits the hole so much faster. He trusts his blocking and what he sees and goes. This helps our OL because there ARE holes there, but they aren't there for long.

I'm not attributing Lynch has lost a step. He looked a bit thicker at the start of this year, but since has slimmed down to playing weight, but he's had a lot of small injuries that could slow him down. Also, Lynch is real big about trust, and the OL didn't earn his trust to start the season, so he seemed to be hesitant. There were holes that he missed, and I think it's that comfort issue.

Hopefully when Lynch makes it back, he can see what Rawls is doing and pick his play up. I still believe Lynch has one good year left in him if he can stay healthy, partly because no matter what he's going to be splitting reps with Rawls next year, which would be incredibly good for both backs.

Putting up 4.0 YPC against the #3 DVOA run defense was an encouraging sign. Run game should be wide open against Minny.

Hawks46":3kisv26t said:

Good post Kearly.

The biggest difference I'm seeing between Rawls and Lynch is that Rawls hits the hole so much faster. He trusts his blocking and what he sees and goes. This helps our OL because there ARE holes there, but they aren't there for long.

I'm not attributing Lynch has lost a step. He looked a bit thicker at the start of this year, but since has slimmed down to playing weight, but he's had a lot of small injuries that could slow him down. Also, Lynch is real big about trust, and the OL didn't earn his trust to start the season, so he seemed to be hesitant. There were holes that he missed, and I think it's that comfort issue.

Hopefully when Lynch makes it back, he can see what Rawls is doing and pick his play up. I still believe Lynch has one good year left in him if he can stay healthy, partly because no matter what he's going to be splitting reps with Rawls next year, which would be incredibly good for both backs.

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Lynch does look a little heavier and a half step slower than 2014 to me, and I thought that in the very first game of the year. In 2014 Lynch was at his career peak physically. He's not at that mountain top right now. He reminds me of Chris Clemons when his time in Seattle was winding down. Still a good player, but not quite the force he had been before.

Trust and chemistry are important. And like you said, Rawls is hitting the holes fast and using speed that Lynch doesn't have access to in short areas.

But just as important as any of that, is that Rawls plays with intense hustle. When you see a teammate hustle it makes you want to hustle too, and it feels like Rawls has given the entire offense a spark. Everyone, not just rawls, seems to be hustling harder, blocking with more effort, etc. I've even seen Tyler Lockett throw some good blocks the past couple games in that tiny body of his.

I think there is a lot to be said for an offense that plays balls out vs. an offense that is tentative.

MontanaHawk05":3r3q3nxs said:

Putting up 4.0 YPC against the #3 DVOA run defense was an encouraging sign. Run game should be wide open against Minny.

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Agreed, also we need to contain their run game. I haven't followed the Vikings much so I don't know if they've really played any real quality opponents, but AP seems to be their lifeline. Yes Bridgewater is good. But I'd say he's comparable to Foles imo. Probably way off but as I mentioned earlier I haven't followed the Vikings.

MontanaHawk05":1b00mnkj said:

Putting up 4.0 YPC against the #3 DVOA run defense was an encouraging sign. Run game should be wide open against Minny.

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The Steeler's run D is legit. Though once they started committing D-lineman to gap integrity over pure pass rush, Wilson had extra time to throw and just killed the Steeler defense with it.

It's really cool that defenses so far have been unable to stop both Rawls and Wilson at the same time. They are both so good together that it seems to be an either/or situation.

MANNNNNN RAWLS IS!!!!!!

Not using Rawls effectively in the 2nd half and going to our poor screen game put us in a lot of 3rd and long situations which remarkablely we converted. I think on one drive we converted 3 of them and the scored on 3rd and goal from the 15 or so. You can't really count on that kind of performance week in and week out. POUND THE ROCK!!!

I dunno. Wilson and Lynch were pretty special together too.

I'm not sure the inclusion of Rawls is the big factor here. I think Russ may just feel a bit more free when Lynch isn't in the game.

Now hear me out. Lynch is the most individually talented player on this offense, but you wonder if Russ can really call the shots if Beastmode is in the game. With Rawls (or any other RB), there is no pressure to appease the offense's "big dog" because Russ takes that mantle when Lynch isn't playing.

There were two games last year that Lynch sat-out to start due to illness: road games against the Redskins and Cardinals. Arguably, Russ's two best games last year. In Week 2, when we needed Russ to get going against Green Bay, what did we do? We pulled Lynch and had Russ throw all over the field. It was the only time our offense (and Russell) looked good that week.

DavidSeven":250hl8bq said:

I'm not sure the inclusion of Rawls is the big factor here. I think Russ may just feel a bit more free when Lynch isn't in the game.

Now hear me out. Lynch is the most individually talented player on this offense, but you wonder if Russ can really call the shots if Beastmode is in the game. With Rawls (or any other RB), there is no pressure to appease the offense's "big dog" because Russ takes that mantle when Lynch isn't playing.

There were two games last year that Lynch sat-out to start due to illness: road games against the Redskins and Cardinals. Arguably, Russ's two best games last year. In Week 2, when we needed Russ to get going against Green Bay, what did we do? We pulled Lynch and had Russ throw all over the field. It was the only time our offense (and Russell) looked good that week.

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In what sense is Lynch "more individually talented"? Because he was drafted higher? If Wilson's draft were redone, he'd be at least #2 overall. He broke the major college passer rating record and we now know that wasn't a fluke. Even at the time, I know John Schneider had Luck and Wilson with the same grade, and Matt Hasselbeck isn't doing anything this year to disprove that estimate, either. That doesn't settle the matter, of course, but if Schneider thought so, it should perhaps be enough to make us blush at such casually confident claims.

And Wilson's 4th in the NFL in passer rating. And 2nd in career passer rating. I'd say the best running QB in the NFL with a dash of rare passing ability is a pretty special talent. What criteria can I use to evaluate this claim about individual talent? I would have said "effect on winning" but that's unarguably Wilson, so it's something else. Athletic measureables? Christine Michael is more athletic than Lynch, so not that. Rank in their position group? That seems plenty arguable -- Wilson made a big splash his rookie year and it's not clear what his ceiling is. I know Vegas has given him damn good odds to win MVP since then.

MontanaHawk05":3ttxsw14 said:

Putting up 4.0 YPC against the #3 DVOA run defense was an encouraging sign. Run game should be wide open against Minny.

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Cincy's defense is legit, but overall, I was waiting to see what Rawls did against a quality run defense.

I can honestly say he's arrived after this game. The thing I like about his game is that he's a pretty good receiver out of the backfield. Pitt's defense was highly rated and had only given up 4 rushing TD's this year, although to be honest I think some of that is the product of what we saw yesterday: no need to rush into the end zone when you can throw it in so easily on them.

I'd also tip my hat to the OL. Rawls had some legit holes yesterday, he didn't have to create a lot on his own. To Rawls' credit, he made the next guy miss at the 2nd level and got chunk yardage out of it, and took what was there when there wasn't much to take.

I also think that Beast sitting out basically all of pre-season came back to bite us. He got off to a really slow start this year, and I think getting 1 or 2 carries per game in pre-season doesn't get him ready for the regular season. He's a great athlete, or has been one, but he's no Walter Jones. I think he needs more work in pre-season. I'm not callling for him to work full games, but he should get more than 8-10 carries in 4 pre games IMHO.

Love Rawls. Have loved him since the first few times I watched him play. He runs with a Beast-like attitude, with an extra step or so of speed.

And to ward off some possible criticism, this does not mean I think we should ignore the RB position come next draft. Actually, I think we're getting a bit thin now, depending on Marshawn's situation after the end of this season. I'd be fine with picking up at least one more rookie RB for future development.