Week 15 Elo Ratings: Seahawks #3

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... edictions/

The #3 Seahawks are now a near lock for the playoffs (98%). They are favored by a commanding 91% against Cleveland, and 87% against St. Louis, despite their previous OT loss.

They maintain a slim probability of winning the NFC West (5%). This is down 2% from one week ago, before Arizona beat Minnesota, but up 2% from Sunday, after their decisive victory over Baltimore and Cincinnati's decisive loss to Pittsburgh.

To win the division, the Seahawks need the improbable to occur: Arizona must lose at Philadelphia and to Green Bay next week (they are favored to win both games by 65%); Seattle must beat Cleveland, St. Louis, and Arizona; and Pittsburgh/Dallas must win three more games than Cincinnati/New Orleans for the Seahawks to make up the tie breaker deficit for Strength of Victory.

Dallas is favored by 55% to beat the Jets on Saturday. Pittsburgh is favored by 57% to beat Denver on Sunday. San Francisco is a 32% underdog at home against Cincinnati - but this probability does not account for the fact that Andy Dalton will not play. And Detroit is a 42% underdog at New Orleans on Monday night. If three of these four games go the Seahawks' way, then that would lower their Strength of Victory deficit to just two games with two more weeks to go.

A 5% probability of winning the division is not where we wanted to be at this time of year. On the bright side, the team has nearly secured a playoff spot and has the inside track on the 5th seed, which would give them a soft wildcard matchup against the eventual NFC East winner.

Go Hawks!

With Tampa Bay's loss to St. Louis on Thursday, the Seahawks can now clinch a playoff birth with a win over Cleveland and either a loss/tie by Washington to Buffalo (53%) OR a loss/tie by the Giants to Carolina (71%).

If both Washington and the Giants prevail in upsets, the Seahawks can still clinch a playoff birth with a win over Cleveland, a loss/tie by Atlanta to Jacksonville (50%), AND a loss/tie by Green Bay to Oakland (31%).

Also, just to confirm, to keep our division title hopes alive, we need Arizona to lose at Philadelphia (35%). And it would help to see Dallas beat the Jets on Saturday (55%), Pittsburgh beat Denver on Sunday (57%), San Francisco beat Cincinnati on Sunday (32%), and Detroit beat New Orleans on Monday night (42%).