The Pete Carroll Game/Season Theory

It has been discussed in a couple of threads but I wanted to see what people thought about this.

After watching PC for a while I am almost certain that within his philosophy it is quite intentional that his teams start slow both within games and within seasons. As a former coach myself, I can appreciate that Pete always wants something more to bring out and NEVER wants his opposition to have tape on everything his team does.

In this way, I think it is quite intentional that the first half of all of his seasons have all starters relatively vanilla on offense and defense despite having veterans at key positions. Moreover, in games I think the team doesn't makes its key adjustment until half-time to give opposing coaches much less time and resources to combat them. For example, I think Bevell has always been a bit hamstrung in the beginnings of seasons in not being able to open up the playbook.

I don't have time to do massive breakdowns but I did want to open this idea up to people and see what hey thought. I think overall, that if Carroll can win a game and give nothing playing base defense and running the ball 100 times - he would. Moreover, I very much think, for example, lots of our defensive breakdowns in the first-half of the season were because other teams did this same thing to us - and basically made Carroll think that his base defense would work and then bust out the defense breakers.

Thoughts?

Even though I think Pete is a master at playing coy, the early season struggles with the Oline were not planned. Trying to keep things vanilla when they involve possibly getting your franchise QB killed wouldn't be smart.

Having so many new faces in and out the first few games really set us back.

I don't think he ever holds anything back intentiionally. In all the press conferences I've seen it actually really frustrates him that we start slow. I think it is a mix of poor gameplan in some instances, but I think the most important thing is team chemistry. The reason we have done so well is that this team wins when it wants to win. If there isn't cohesion in the locker room or at practice, there isn't cohesion come gametime. The only way you have a team who has more undrafted players and late round picks win a superbowl is by them giving their absolute best every second of the game. These guys always say when they are winning that they are playing for each other. Last year was trash until the players only meeting when cam fired everyone up after percy left.

I'm not saying it is solely this. Obviously coaching up guys and giving them the tools to compete is also a big reason, but I think chemistry is the most important. I never played football at a high level, but I played soccer at a pretty high level, and that was the case with the teams I played on that went all the way. When we were tight, you didn't have to think about the mechanics and the moving parts as much. You could make decisions faster because you had confidence in your teammates to have your back. When we were down, we would grind it out because we didn't want to let each other or our coaches down. It was not out of fear, but out of a love for the group as a whole.

When this team has confidence in itself and each other as a whole, we cannot be beaten. If there is doubt, we leave holes.

At least 1 or 2 of those threads, I've said something similar. It happens too much (like every season so far ) to be a coincicence. We know Pete takes risks, I think this is one of the risk/reward games he plays. Close to the vest early in games and seasons, then balls to the wall later. This year, it didn't work out quite as well as other years, but here we are in the thick of the playoff hunt. It's a shame we didn't win the division, but there's nothing we can do about AZ racking up all those wins early. Breaks of the game.

Hey, we'll likely finish with 11 wins. Normally, that's only a game or so off from div champ range. Hell, a lot of years, 11 wins would do it. Sure, we have a bigger challenge in the playoffs this season, but hey, that's what the game is about, overcoming challenges. If any team in the league can do it this year, it is us.

Frankly, playing in all those close games teaches the guys something about how to play the game and builds character, as long as you win a decent percentage of them. We know we can play competitive ball with anybody in the league.

I think it's entirely likely that Pete has a full-season strategy just as he does a singular game strategy.

I'm certain this chess match is more complex than I can fully understand, but I'm also confident that it's more than "holding back" or having his players give less effort. (Not saying the OP implied that, just trying to work through my own thoughts.)

Situationally, PC is way more conservative in the 1st half of games and the 1st half of seasons. If this past game were played in week 3, we take a knee just before halftime.

Conversely, PC is much more willing to take calculated personnel risks earlier in the season for the sake of Competition. Nowak starting at center might be about firing up both him and Lewis for the sake of the 2nd half of the season. If Drew clicks, keep going. If he doesn't, you have a healthier Patrick the rest of the way. As long as a coach does not lose his other players' confidence, the late-season rewards could be excellent.

Once we're in the home stretch, guys have been through the fire and developed the trust and fortitude that allows coaches to open up the playbook. Like a slowly developing hurricane, Pete does his best to orchestrate a "perfect storm" of events and decisions that get the team rolling come December, and peaking for the playoffs.

:twocents:

I think our slow starts have more to do with roster churn and Pete's willingness to let younger players develop during the year.

I've read all the posts about a 1st half "extended preseason" and I think it's absurd that the coaching staff doesn't care about winning games in the 1st half of the season.

I also think it's absurd that all this was intentional. No way does any coach want their QB taking that many hits. It only takes one awkward hit (like the Rawls hit) to end a season. You don't gamble like that with your QB.

I'm sorry, for a guy as competitive as Pete.. I don't buy this at all. He wants to win at everything, hence the mantra that states "Win Forever"

Considering 3 losses were games you could argue should have been wins, I don't think Pete is meticulously planning on starting at a slower pace then ramping up as the year goes on. In 2013 we started 10-1.. why 2 years later would he decide to stack the deck against us? Makes no sense.

I think Pete was a bit overconfident in the transition on the OL and the Kam fiasco threw a wrench into the defensive plans. It wasn't some master plan to get the team to slowly get more and more momentum as the season went on.

johnnyfever":3dnw9jkc said:

...but I think the most important thing is team chemistry. The reason we have done so well is that this team wins when it wants to win. If there isn't cohesion in the locker room or at practice, there isn't cohesion come gametime. The only way you have a team who has more undrafted players and late round picks win a superbowl is by them giving their absolute best every second of the game. These guys always say when they are winning that they are playing for each other. Last year was trash until the players only meeting when cam fired everyone up after percy left.

Click to expand...

Nailed it. There is no factor that I can decipher on this team that is more vital to winning than team chemistry. Not ONCE earlier this season when we were losing did I hear ANY player talk about the importance of playing for one another. It was all about "communication misscues", and that they didn't really have an answer for giving up leads in the 4th.

Then we turned it around and now you hear nearly every player post game after a win talk about how their primary motivation is "playing for each other".

As soon as I heard that narrative back was when I said "Look out NFL".

The boys are back.

I do believe Pete has a plan for both games and seasons. You would almost have to think every team does this. If you're just winging it all the time in the NFL you won't get far.
As far as this year goes I think Pete thought the O-line would maybe play "alittle" better earlier than they did. Also, I'm sure he though Cary Williams would play better than he did. I'm thinking he held onto both situations longer than he should have, but that's just hindsight on my part. And between those 2 variables cost us some games we might have won otherwise.

Earl called it out numerous times in the beginning of the season. Even to the point of saying that some guys need to give it up for the ball club.

I mean think about it. How hard is to be motivated so early in the season? I believe very hard. Simply cause of how much they have accomplished already. These guys are 24-27 years of age, immaturity is bound to be around at times. They know they can beat anyone, anywhere and I think at times that has gotten to their heads. They're ball players at the end of the day and cockiness will always be there for them.

However, whenever this team has dealt with adversity it has always prospered. The Atlanta playoff game changed the destiny of this team forever and my view of them as long as the current leadership stays in charge. Never in my life had I seen a team respond with such killer instinct before. No quit in these guys, and they're a damn force to be reckon with once they turn it up to the level they can play at.

Pete plays young players early in the season so that by the end of the season they play well when needed. This is just one cause for the slow season starts.

So Pete just about got his newly signed franchise QB killed early this season so he had had some pedal left when he hit the floor? I want what he's smokin'. :th2thumbs: