Everyone,
This will be my final NFC Playoff Picture analysis and I am starting it early since it's pretty clear how the evening game is going to go and the Monday game is an all-AFC affair. It is worth noting that all the NFC Playoff teams are now completely determined; only the precise seeding is now in doubt. For those interested in the final AFC picture (prior to the final week), you can go HERE.
Well almost everything that could go wrong for Seattle did this week, but fortunately Seattle clinched the week before. As always, I will be using the following special symbols: * means that Home field is clinched, z means that a first week bye is clinched, y means the division is clinched, x means playoff spot is clinched. Sometimes you will see a number after a symbol reflecting a specific seed clinched (if applicable), and sometimes you'll see a "locked" notation as well (meaning that no movement from this seed is possible.
Without further ado, I will start as always with the NFC South:
NFC South
Carolina(z) 14-1 (10-1 conf) Remaining Game: Tampa
Atlanta(e) 8-7 (5-6 conf) Remaining Game: New Orleans
Tampa(e) 6-9 (5-6 conf) Remaining Game: @Carolina
New Orleans(e) 6-9 (4-7 conf) Remaining Game: @ Atlanta
With the Minnesota win vs the Giants, the last 'at large' team in the NFC is finally eliminated. As such there are no elimination scenarios and one (and only one) clinching scenario:
Clinching Scenario:
Carolina clinches home field with a win (or tie) OR an Arizona Loss (or tie)
Elimination Scenarios:
None
Who to root for: As Seattle fans, if the Carolina game is played at 10am PST (I think it will be flexed), then root for Carolina as this will make the Arizona game meaningless for Arizona. Otherwise, it doesn't matter.
We now move on to a division that was very interesting as little as two weeks ago but is now completely locked, decided and utterly meaningless, the NFC East:
NFC East
Washington(y4-LOCKED) 8-7 (7-4 conf) : Remaining Game: @Dallas
NY Giants(e) 6-9 (4-7 conf): Remaining Game: Philly
Philly(e) 6-9 (3-8 conf): Remaining Game: @NY Giants
Dallas(e) 4-11 (3-8 conf): Remaining Game: Washington
Washington is the number four seed and this is completely locked and no other team has any playoff implications. This pretty much ends any discussion of the NFC East for playoff purposes.
Now moving on to the division that affects Seattle the most even more than our own division: The NFC North
NFC North
Green Bay (x-5) 10-5 (7-4 conf) Remaining Game: Minny
Minnesota (x) 10-5 (7-4 conf) Remaining Game: @Green Bay
Detroit(e) 6-9 (5-6 conf) Remaining Game: @Chicago
Chicago(e) 6-9 (3-8 conf) Remaining Game: Detroit
The game in Green Bay next week is perhaps the most important game with playoff implications in the NFC. Only Arizona and Carolina are unaffected. Please note that because Seattle lost, Green Bay has clinched no worse than the #5 seed (this is important).
Clinching Scenarios
Green Bay clinches the NFC North with:
A Win or tie The win part is obvious. Green Bay clinches even with a tie because Green Bay has beaten MIN earlier this season and thus would win the overall head to head tie-break.
Minnesota Clinches the NFC North with:
A Win See Above, a tie isn't good enough for Minny because it wouldn't give them a head to head wash
Minnesota Clinches the #5 seed with:
A Seattle loss OR A Minny Tie This is why I think a lot of you are far too pessimistic right now of Seattle getting a good Wild Card draw. Seattle has the head to head tie-break on Minny and Minny only has a one game lead and that game will determine the NFC North Crown. If Minny wins, then Seattle is automatically the sixth seed (the AZ game is meaningless) and Seattle travels to MIN. If Green Bay wins, then all Seattle has to do is win.
Elimination Scenarios
The division elimination scenarios are the inverse of the division clinching ones. There is one other elimination scenario:
Minnesota is eliminated from the #5 seed with:
A Seattle win AND Minny Loss OR A Minny Win A Minny win is obvious since that will clinch the division for Minny. If Seattle wins, the only way Minny keeps the #5 seed is to TIE Green Bay because that's the only way Minny keeps her record better than Seattle's, and Seattle has the tiebreak
Who to root for: Wait and see. This game (Min @ Green Bay) will almost certainly be flexed to Sun Night since it's the game with the most playoff implications league wide. If Seattle wins earlier in the day, root for Green Bay. This will inflict a loss on MIN. If Seattle doesn't win, then root for Minny. In any event the one result you absolutely DO NOT WANT is a Green Bay-Minnesota TIE.
That leads us to our own division, the NFC West:
NFC West
Arizona (z) 13-2 (10-1 conf) Remaining Game: Seattle
Seattle (x) 9-6 (6-5 conf) Remaining Game: @Arizona
St Louis (e) 7-8 (6-5 conf) Remaining Game: @San Fran
San Fran (e) 4-11 (3-8 conf) Remaining Game: St Louis
Again there is very little to really play for. Arizona has a shot at home field, but it's a very outside shot and home field is not much different from the #2 seed (it's the one week bye that's really important). OTOH, winning will be critically important to Seattle if only to avoid having to play Green Bay IN Green Bay even as an outside possibility. With all that said here are the clinching and elimination scenarios:
Clinching Scenarios
Arizona can claim home field advantage from underneath Carolina. Arizona Clinches Home Field with:
A Win + Carolina loss This is the inverse of the Carolina clinching scenario
Seattle can clinch the #5 seed. This can happen if:
Seattle win + Minny Loss Since Seattle has the head to head on MIN, if both teams finish with 10 wins, Seattle gets the higher seed. Simple as that.
Elimination Scenarios
Arizona is eliminated from home field with:
A Carolina win or tie See Carolina clinch scenario
Seattle is eliminated from the #5 seed with any one of the following:
1. A loss This would make Seattle's final record 9-7 and worse than either Green Bay or Minny
2. A Green Bay loss or tie A Green Bay loss would force Green Bay into the wildcard mix and they have the head to head tiebreak. A Green Bay tie would give win Green Bay the division but insure MIN would still have a better record than Seattle
Who to root for: It is really important (IMHO) for Seattle to go down to Arizona and win (and not just to wash the sour taste of this last game away). If Seattle wins, then unless Green Bay and Minnesota tie, Seattle is assured of either being the #5 seed (and facing Washington) or is the #6 seed but faces Minnesota (not Green Bay). On the other hand, if Seattle LOSES, then Seattle is locked into the #6 seed and can not play Washington in the Wild Card round and will have to face the NFC North Champion (Green Bay or Minnesota).
*whew* I hope this helps.
This will be my final NFC Playoff Picture analysis and I am starting it early since it's pretty clear how the evening game is going to go and the Monday game is an all-AFC affair. It is worth noting that all the NFC Playoff teams are now completely determined; only the precise seeding is now in doubt. For those interested in the final AFC picture (prior to the final week), you can go HERE.
Well almost everything that could go wrong for Seattle did this week, but fortunately Seattle clinched the week before. As always, I will be using the following special symbols: * means that Home field is clinched, z means that a first week bye is clinched, y means the division is clinched, x means playoff spot is clinched. Sometimes you will see a number after a symbol reflecting a specific seed clinched (if applicable), and sometimes you'll see a "locked" notation as well (meaning that no movement from this seed is possible.
Without further ado, I will start as always with the NFC South:
NFC South
Carolina(z) 14-1 (10-1 conf) Remaining Game: Tampa
Atlanta(e) 8-7 (5-6 conf) Remaining Game: New Orleans
Tampa(e) 6-9 (5-6 conf) Remaining Game: @Carolina
New Orleans(e) 6-9 (4-7 conf) Remaining Game: @ Atlanta
With the Minnesota win vs the Giants, the last 'at large' team in the NFC is finally eliminated. As such there are no elimination scenarios and one (and only one) clinching scenario:
Clinching Scenario:
Carolina clinches home field with a win (or tie) OR an Arizona Loss (or tie)
Elimination Scenarios:
None
Who to root for: As Seattle fans, if the Carolina game is played at 10am PST (I think it will be flexed), then root for Carolina as this will make the Arizona game meaningless for Arizona. Otherwise, it doesn't matter.
We now move on to a division that was very interesting as little as two weeks ago but is now completely locked, decided and utterly meaningless, the NFC East:
NFC East
Washington(y4-LOCKED) 8-7 (7-4 conf) : Remaining Game: @Dallas
NY Giants(e) 6-9 (4-7 conf): Remaining Game: Philly
Philly(e) 6-9 (3-8 conf): Remaining Game: @NY Giants
Dallas(e) 4-11 (3-8 conf): Remaining Game: Washington
Washington is the number four seed and this is completely locked and no other team has any playoff implications. This pretty much ends any discussion of the NFC East for playoff purposes.
Now moving on to the division that affects Seattle the most even more than our own division: The NFC North
NFC North
Green Bay (x-5) 10-5 (7-4 conf) Remaining Game: Minny
Minnesota (x) 10-5 (7-4 conf) Remaining Game: @Green Bay
Detroit(e) 6-9 (5-6 conf) Remaining Game: @Chicago
Chicago(e) 6-9 (3-8 conf) Remaining Game: Detroit
The game in Green Bay next week is perhaps the most important game with playoff implications in the NFC. Only Arizona and Carolina are unaffected. Please note that because Seattle lost, Green Bay has clinched no worse than the #5 seed (this is important).
Clinching Scenarios
Green Bay clinches the NFC North with:
A Win or tie The win part is obvious. Green Bay clinches even with a tie because Green Bay has beaten MIN earlier this season and thus would win the overall head to head tie-break.
Minnesota Clinches the NFC North with:
A Win See Above, a tie isn't good enough for Minny because it wouldn't give them a head to head wash
Minnesota Clinches the #5 seed with:
A Seattle loss OR A Minny Tie This is why I think a lot of you are far too pessimistic right now of Seattle getting a good Wild Card draw. Seattle has the head to head tie-break on Minny and Minny only has a one game lead and that game will determine the NFC North Crown. If Minny wins, then Seattle is automatically the sixth seed (the AZ game is meaningless) and Seattle travels to MIN. If Green Bay wins, then all Seattle has to do is win.
Elimination Scenarios
The division elimination scenarios are the inverse of the division clinching ones. There is one other elimination scenario:
Minnesota is eliminated from the #5 seed with:
A Seattle win AND Minny Loss OR A Minny Win A Minny win is obvious since that will clinch the division for Minny. If Seattle wins, the only way Minny keeps the #5 seed is to TIE Green Bay because that's the only way Minny keeps her record better than Seattle's, and Seattle has the tiebreak
Who to root for: Wait and see. This game (Min @ Green Bay) will almost certainly be flexed to Sun Night since it's the game with the most playoff implications league wide. If Seattle wins earlier in the day, root for Green Bay. This will inflict a loss on MIN. If Seattle doesn't win, then root for Minny. In any event the one result you absolutely DO NOT WANT is a Green Bay-Minnesota TIE.
That leads us to our own division, the NFC West:
NFC West
Arizona (z) 13-2 (10-1 conf) Remaining Game: Seattle
Seattle (x) 9-6 (6-5 conf) Remaining Game: @Arizona
St Louis (e) 7-8 (6-5 conf) Remaining Game: @San Fran
San Fran (e) 4-11 (3-8 conf) Remaining Game: St Louis
Again there is very little to really play for. Arizona has a shot at home field, but it's a very outside shot and home field is not much different from the #2 seed (it's the one week bye that's really important). OTOH, winning will be critically important to Seattle if only to avoid having to play Green Bay IN Green Bay even as an outside possibility. With all that said here are the clinching and elimination scenarios:
Clinching Scenarios
Arizona can claim home field advantage from underneath Carolina. Arizona Clinches Home Field with:
A Win + Carolina loss This is the inverse of the Carolina clinching scenario
Seattle can clinch the #5 seed. This can happen if:
Seattle win + Minny Loss Since Seattle has the head to head on MIN, if both teams finish with 10 wins, Seattle gets the higher seed. Simple as that.
Elimination Scenarios
Arizona is eliminated from home field with:
A Carolina win or tie See Carolina clinch scenario
Seattle is eliminated from the #5 seed with any one of the following:
1. A loss This would make Seattle's final record 9-7 and worse than either Green Bay or Minny
2. A Green Bay loss or tie A Green Bay loss would force Green Bay into the wildcard mix and they have the head to head tiebreak. A Green Bay tie would give win Green Bay the division but insure MIN would still have a better record than Seattle
Who to root for: It is really important (IMHO) for Seattle to go down to Arizona and win (and not just to wash the sour taste of this last game away). If Seattle wins, then unless Green Bay and Minnesota tie, Seattle is assured of either being the #5 seed (and facing Washington) or is the #6 seed but faces Minnesota (not Green Bay). On the other hand, if Seattle LOSES, then Seattle is locked into the #6 seed and can not play Washington in the Wild Card round and will have to face the NFC North Champion (Green Bay or Minnesota).
*whew* I hope this helps.
