From a Vikes perspective .... what to expect

SFVikeFan

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Hey Hawks fans,

Lifelong Vikes fan here. Should be a good game this weekend. We got a serious butt kicking last go round, this time it's hard to say what to expect. Just a few random, rambling thoughts from our side:

- Did you guys know Vikes were missing 3 starters on defense last time? J/K. Lynch wouldn't shut up about that. Seriously though, Joseph is very iffy and may not play. He is probably the best run-stuffing NT in the NFL. Barr & Smith are the 2 most important players to our scheme. Losing them throws out half the playbook. Smith is very under-rated and equally elite in both pass coverage and run support and he can blitz well. Barr is a freak. Like Smith, he can stuff the run, he can blitz, he is surprisingly solid in pass coverage. Those 2 are so well-rounded they allow Zimmer to really throw a lot of wrinkles & disguises at offense's. Since Barr & Smith returned, Vikes gave up: 23 vs AZ, 17 vs Bears, 17 vs Giants, and 13 vs. GB.

- O-line issues. Vikes lost 2 starters in pre-season in RT Loadholt and Center John Sullivan. LT Kalil had 2 knee surgeries in offseason and hasn't lived up to expectations. LG Fusco switched from RG and has been brutal, giving up the most QB pressures of an OG in the NFL. To make matters worse, Norv Turner has called for the most 7-step drops of anyone in the NFL. Since Vikings are dead last in pass attempts, it means we have the highest % of 7-step drops in the NFL and the results have been brutal. When Turner calls for shorter pass patterns Teddy has played well, but right now Teddy is #1 in NFL with most QB pressures at 46% of all dropbacks he gets pressured and that's a major reason our passing offense is so lackluster - it's not all Teddy's fault.

- Temps expected to be around 0 degrees before windchill. It could be windy, 10-20 mph in forecast but who knows by gametime. Not sure what kind of impact that could have on passing.

- Vikings are very, very young team. We have 10 rookies playing with 6-7 that have started multiple games. MLB Kendricks has been very solid. RT Clemmings has struggled to replace starter Loadholt. WR Diggs is probably the biggest steal for our draft, he's put up almost identical stats as Lockett but keep in mind we are a run-first offense and don't throw a lot. Biggest surprise as been our DE Danielle Hunter from LSU. Hunter is the youngest player in NFL just turned 21, but is #2 among rookies with 6 sacks while playing as a backup DE.

- Historically young teams struggle in the playoffs. Vikings have a bright future ahead, but they are not an elite team nor do I think they are ready to beat elite teams like Seattle. Too many issues at O-line have hindered Teddy's development and he's a young QB who is still in the 2 steps forward, 1 step backwards process. Seattle is young as well but still a veteran team with Super Bowl experience and I expect them to win.

- I do expect Seattle to win, but due to weather and Zimmer getting another crack at you guys with Smith & Barr will change his gameplan. That being said Wilson is a very talented pain in the ass and that defense is still tops. I doubt we see another blowout, I'm thinking more like 27-17.

- If the Vikings have one thing in their favor, it's that there's zero pressure on them and IMO all the pressure is on Seattle. Nobody is giving the Vikings a chance, and that's probably warranted. We as Vikes fans already won our mini-Super Bowl just by finally beating the Packers and winning the NFCN. That's huge progress for us and I think most are thrilled with how far we've come under Zimmer after a 5 win season 2 years ago. Right now we're playing with house money.

- Safe travels to anyone going to the game, bring your thermal underwear!
 

byau

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SFVikeFan":tehv5m2n said:
Hey Hawks fans,

Lifelong Vikes fan here. Should be a good game this weekend. We got a serious butt kicking last go round, this time it's hard to say what to expect. Just a few random, rambling thoughts from our side:

Hello! Welcome!

- Did you guys know Vikes were missing 3 starters on defense last time? J/K. Lynch wouldn't shut up about that. \

Hahaha.. nice one. You had me going there :) Yes there are a lot of folks here that got tired of that, especially since the Seahawks were out a few key offensive playmakers that got little to no mention.

Seriously though, Joseph is very iffy and may not play. He is probably the best run-stuffing NT in the NFL. Barr & Smith are the 2 most important players to our scheme. Losing them throws out half the playbook. Smith is very under-rated and equally elite in both pass coverage and run support and he can blitz well. Barr is a freak. Like Smith, he can stuff the run, he can blitz, he is surprisingly solid in pass coverage. Those 2 are so well-rounded they allow Zimmer to really throw a lot of wrinkles & disguises at offense's. Since Barr & Smith returned, Vikes gave up: 23 vs AZ, 17 vs Bears, 17 vs Giants, and 13 vs. GB.

Definitely any to three defensive guys off any time is going to hurt both sides of the ball. The longer our offense extends drives, the better our defense. The Seahawks were playing out of their minds, I think they still would have won, but it would have made it closer. Now with that context, I'm guessing the Vikings will definitely prepare and it will make things even closer with your D guys coming back

Also our center Patrick Lewis had a terrible time in the rain against the Rams with two very egregious snaps. From that point on it seemed to affect Russell and thus the whole defense. So your D combined with wondering how our center will do in cold weather... it will make for an interesting game methinks.

- O-line issues. Vikes lost 2 starters in pre-season in RT Loadholt and Center John Sullivan. LT Kalil had 2 knee surgeries in offseason and hasn't lived up to expectations. LG Fusco switched from RG and has been brutal, giving up the most QB pressures of an OG in the NFL. To make matters worse, Norv Turner has called for the most 7-step drops of anyone in the NFL. Since Vikings are dead last in pass attempts, it means we have the highest % of 7-step drops in the NFL and the results have been brutal. When Turner calls for shorter pass patterns Teddy has played well, but right now Teddy is #1 in NFL with most QB pressures at 46% of all dropbacks he gets pressured and that's a major reason our passing offense is so lackluster - it's not all Teddy's fault.

I think no key players have changed on that side, our D and your O. Except for Adrian Peterson possibly being even more motivated to erase that last game against the Seahawks out of his mouth. I don't really see this part changing a whole lot either, as long as our O can extend drives I think the D will still do a pretty good job. Maybe not as lights out as before, but that was pretty bad before. Even if Adrian triples his yard output he is still only half of where you will need him to be.

- Temps expected to be around 0 degrees before windchill. It could be windy, 10-20 mph in forecast but who knows by gametime. Not sure what kind of impact that could have on passing.

I think the rain would impact it more than the cold. Russell has some HUGE hands, and I think as long as our center can handle his job, I don't see it affecting us too much.

Also, if we get Beast Mode back, that definitely will add some more to our rushing game.

- Vikings are very, very young team.

- Historically young teams struggle in the playoffs. Vikings have a bright future ahead, but they are not an elite team nor do I think they are ready to beat elite teams like Seattle. Too many issues at O-line have hindered Teddy's development and he's a young QB who is still in the 2 steps forward, 1 step backwards process. Seattle is young as well but still a veteran team with Super Bowl experience and I expect them to win.

But when they won the SB, they were still young. So you never know. That's also why I think the Panthers will be very very dangerous. They may be too young to realize what's going on, similar to I think the Seahawks at SB48.

- I do expect Seattle to win, but due to weather and Zimmer getting another crack at you guys with Smith & Barr will change his gameplan. That being said Wilson is a very talented pain in the ass and that defense is still tops. I doubt we see another blowout, I'm thinking more like 27-17.

I'm around your thinking. I don't pick against the Seahawks anyway. I think it will definitely be closer to 7 to 10 points, and I also expect it to be a long day for our offense. And I'm always the paranoid "Any Given Sunday" type ... so....

- If the Vikings have one thing in their favor, it's that there's zero pressure on them and IMO all the pressure is on Seattle. Nobody is giving the Vikings a chance, and that's probably warranted. We as Vikes fans already won our mini-Super Bowl just by finally beating the Packers and winning the NFCN. That's huge progress for us and I think most are thrilled with how far we've come under Zimmer after a 5 win season 2 years ago. Right now we're playing with house money.

- Safe travels to anyone going to the game, bring your thermal underwear!

Good writeup, thanks for taking the time to post!
 

Scottemojo

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I am ready for the cold, and will be there.

Agreed on the youth, and agreed that Smith and Barr were big losses.

I hope this doesn't sound condescending, but the biggest hope the Vikes have is Seattle just playing a bad game. The matchups favor Seattle. The weather is good for neither. Seattle is a playoff hardened team, the Vikings are not.

THe Vikes were not missing starters on offense in the last game, and got shut out on offense. Peterson gets a 2nd crack against the best run D in the league, so expecting much is hopeful, but not realistic. Our secondary appears to have found a groove, and the pass rush is good enough. Teddy B is getting better but isn't the strong armed type that gives us trouble.



Here is hoping for a good game free of injury and officials with stupid flags. And tip of the cap to your Vikings, any team that gives the Packers fits is fine by me.
 

LoneHawkFan

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Great post. Sunday can't come soon enough!

26-9 good guys.
 

TeamoftheCentury

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Congratulations to the Vikings to unseating the Packers in the Norris division! They were my pre-season surprise team, but I don't think they're a surprise to anyone at this point.

Good shared thoughts, overall. But yeah, I'm pretty sure not only fans but the team was well aware of the missing Vikings players in that regular season game. You realize of course the Hawks are the poster child for that all season?

The Vikings are a young team on the rise. They've been assembling talent through the draft and it's paying off. (You realize, too, that SEA GM John Schneider did the Vikings a solid and traded that 1st round pick to draft Bridgewater.)

The Hawks are not looking past the Vikings. The Head Coach and QB are too smart to look past any team. That regular season game played out the way it did and that was a great and needed road victory. No one is thinking the Hawks steam roll the Vikings nor is anyone looking past them. It's the playoffs. Win or you're done.

The weather definitely sounds like it will be a factor. I think in those games it comes down to who wants it more / it comes down to heart. This Seahawks team is the epitome of resolve and grit. So, hopefully that remains the case this weekend.

The main thing I'd disagree with is how all the pressure is on the Hawks. I understand how fans think that the Vikings are just happy to get to the tournament, but I don't think the coaches or team thinks that way at all. There's pressure, for certain, on both teams. It's how the team embraces the opportunity. The Seahawks have a few seasons under their belts of dealing with big games. We'll see if the Vikings are too young to be phased by the enormity of the game or if the pressure gets to them. Might see a bit of both.

The Seahawks are a hungry team on a continued mission.

All this looks to favor the Hawks. But, the game still has to be played and what matters is the final score.

Go Hawks!
 

DJ_CJ

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As a life long Seahawks from Iowa with a dad thats a Vikes fan its a dream match up. Much tougher game this go around.
 

MizzouHawkGal

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Nice post. We win but it won't be some type of blowout. The Vikings are young and really have no pressure. Currently I'm thinking 27-13. Your team just doesn't have a good enough defense to support your weak offense and can't hang with teams that can score 30+ on any team not located in Missouri.
 

sutz

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Thanks for the write up. Good job!

Won't go into a point by point, others have done far better than I can. Just going to say I'm fairly confident the Hawks will pull it off, but am no way 'confident' that it will be another blowout. For one thing, Pete doesn't actually play that way. But yeah, a 10 point win sounds pretty close to what I expect.

The only two things I worry about is turnovers and flags. If we start putting the ball on the ground all bets are off, and if the zebras go off on one of their tangents, who the hell knows what might happen. In fact, though, I think our guys can still outplay a little bit of that kind of stuff, but too much of it definitely gets us into 'any given Sunday' mode.

Anyway, hoping for a well-played, injury free game for both teams.

GO HAWKS!!!
 

Dizzlepdx

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SFVikeFan":19dreowv said:
WR Diggs is probably the biggest steal for our draft, he's put up almost identical stats as Lockett but keep in mind we are a run-first offense and don't throw a lot.

Fyi, the Hawks had the same run/pass percentage as the Vikings. We just ran more plays overall. And Lockett had the same number of catches but on 20% fewer targets. (sorry, sick of hearing how great Amari Cooper was with 2x the targets and it's a sore spot)
 

TeamoftheCentury

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Dizzlepdx":3igilo39 said:
SFVikeFan":3igilo39 said:
WR Diggs is probably the biggest steal for our draft, he's put up almost identical stats as Lockett but keep in mind we are a run-first offense and don't throw a lot.

Fyi, the Hawks had the same run/pass percentage as the Vikings. We just ran more plays overall. And Lockett had the same number of catches but on 20% fewer targets. (sorry, sick of hearing how great Amari Cooper was with 2x the targets and it's a sore spot)
But isn't the new perception refreshing?
 

Smellyman

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Seahawks are sure old farts compared to the young Vikings....
NFL age snapshotfocus nonewidth 800


/s
 

MizzouHawkGal

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Median age of roster is such a bullshit statistic. And pretty much the reason I don't like sabermetrics and statistics without context in the first place. They lie and are easily twisted and pretty much meaningless in a large scale team sport like football among others. Baseball is unique in that it's actually an individual sport played by teams.
 

kearly

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As I see it there are two major issues for Minny. The first is that the Vikings are not constructed to compete in a shootout. And the second is that the Vikings offense pretty much lives or dies by AP. An ideal opponent for Minny is a team with a poor run D and a middling at best offense. Minny's worst matchup possible is a prolific offense backed up by an elite run D.

Seattle has, by the advanced metrics, arguably the #1 offense in the NFL. And their run D also ranks 1st in yardage. Seattle is literally the toughest possible matchup you could dream up for Minnesota.

For Minny to win, they need Seattle to barf all over themselves, while also getting some help from the refs or maybe from fumble luck. Which IS possible. But if both teams straight up played their game unhindered Seattle would crush Minny pretty much every time.
 

Smellyman

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MizzouHawkGal":3ih2fqce said:
Median age of roster is such a bullshit statistic. And pretty much the reason I don't like sabermetrics and statistics without context in the first place. They lie and are easily twisted and pretty much meaningless in a large scale team sport like football among others. Baseball is unique in that it's actually an individual sport played by teams.

it's true. all it show is all teams roster average 25-27. big whoop
 

MizzouHawkGal

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Smellyman":2esyl5hc said:
MizzouHawkGal":2esyl5hc said:
Median age of roster is such a bullshit statistic. And pretty much the reason I don't like sabermetrics and statistics without context in the first place. They lie and are easily twisted and pretty much meaningless in a large scale team sport like football among others. Baseball is unique in that it's actually an individual sport played by teams.

it's true. all it show is all teams roster average 25-27. big whoop
Oops, seems I missed the...../s, you got to use those neat sarcasm emoticons.

Sorry.
 

johnnyfever

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The one thing no one is talking about as far as the last vikes game. The refs seriously bent them over. The whole time I was watching it I felt bad for them, as we are normally the ones on the bad side of calls. I haven't seen a game that poorly officiated for that length of time in forever. We will win, but the refs won't be bringing that many presents on sunday.
 

MizzouHawkGal

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johnnyfever":3a7w8nfb said:
The one thing no one is talking about as far as the last vikes game. The refs seriously bent them over. The whole time I was watching it I felt bad for them, as we are normally the ones on the bad side of calls. I haven't seen a game that poorly officiated for that length of time in forever. We will win, but the refs won't be bringing that many presents on sunday.
True. But it's a fact that the Seahawks are the worst possible matchup for the Vikings and the playoffs are all about the matchups. That's a true axiom for ANY professional sport. It's not college where natural atheticism rules. It's all about skill and performance under pressure.
 

Polaris

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MizzouHawkGal":zo78rafh said:
johnnyfever":zo78rafh said:
The one thing no one is talking about as far as the last vikes game. The refs seriously bent them over. The whole time I was watching it I felt bad for them, as we are normally the ones on the bad side of calls. I haven't seen a game that poorly officiated for that length of time in forever. We will win, but the refs won't be bringing that many presents on sunday.
True. But it's a fact that the Seahawks are the worst possible matchup for the Vikings and the playoffs are all about the matchups. That's a true axiom for ANY professional sport. It's not college where natural atheticism rules. It's all about skill and performance under pressure.

First of all, I think it's seriously overstating the case to say that the refs 'bent the Vikings over'. Even when it was a one to two score game in the first half, it was very evident in that game who was going to win. The Vikings simply couldn't get any traction against Seattle's D (especially run D), and Seattle pretty much dictated the pace and scoring of the game. The refs did not change any of that. At best, Minny might have gotten an extra score and Seattle would have won by 20 instead of 30. Really.

As for why, again it comes down to match-ups. As was already discussed, Seattle is the worst possible draw that Minnesota could have gotten in not just the NFC playoff field but the entire NFL playoff field. Pretty much everything Minnesota does well, is either outmatched or entirely countered by what Seattle does well....and Minny does not have the ability to really rest Seattle's main weakness which has been (ironically) its secondary and medium long post routes (esp with good QBs and good Tight Ends). By contrast both Green Bay and Washington would have been about the best possible matches against the Vikings from Minny's perspective. In both cases, you have teams with weak run games and weak run defenses, and in both cases you have offenses that struggle to put points on the board. From an advanced stats perspective, the Vikings would have been much better off throwing the week 17 game (which is not what the NFL or fans of any team like to hear but there it is).

Don't get me wrong; I like the Vikings franchise and what they're building, and I like what Coach Zimmer is doing. However the Vikings are a year or two away from making serious noise in the playoffs.
 

Zorn76

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SFVikeFan":2am3r3bo said:
Hey Hawks fans,

Lifelong Vikes fan here. Should be a good game this weekend. We got a serious butt kicking last go round, this time it's hard to say what to expect. Just a few random, rambling thoughts from our side:

- Did you guys know Vikes were missing 3 starters on defense last time? J/K. Lynch wouldn't shut up about that. Seriously though, Joseph is very iffy and may not play. He is probably the best run-stuffing NT in the NFL. Barr & Smith are the 2 most important players to our scheme. Losing them throws out half the playbook. Smith is very under-rated and equally elite in both pass coverage and run support and he can blitz well. Barr is a freak. Like Smith, he can stuff the run, he can blitz, he is surprisingly solid in pass coverage. Those 2 are so well-rounded they allow Zimmer to really throw a lot of wrinkles & disguises at offense's. Since Barr & Smith returned, Vikes gave up: 23 vs AZ, 17 vs Bears, 17 vs Giants, and 13 vs. GB.

- O-line issues. Vikes lost 2 starters in pre-season in RT Loadholt and Center John Sullivan. LT Kalil had 2 knee surgeries in offseason and hasn't lived up to expectations. LG Fusco switched from RG and has been brutal, giving up the most QB pressures of an OG in the NFL. To make matters worse, Norv Turner has called for the most 7-step drops of anyone in the NFL. Since Vikings are dead last in pass attempts, it means we have the highest % of 7-step drops in the NFL and the results have been brutal. When Turner calls for shorter pass patterns Teddy has played well, but right now Teddy is #1 in NFL with most QB pressures at 46% of all dropbacks he gets pressured and that's a major reason our passing offense is so lackluster - it's not all Teddy's fault.

- Temps expected to be around 0 degrees before windchill. It could be windy, 10-20 mph in forecast but who knows by gametime. Not sure what kind of impact that could have on passing.

- Vikings are very, very young team. We have 10 rookies playing with 6-7 that have started multiple games. MLB Kendricks has been very solid. RT Clemmings has struggled to replace starter Loadholt. WR Diggs is probably the biggest steal for our draft, he's put up almost identical stats as Lockett but keep in mind we are a run-first offense and don't throw a lot. Biggest surprise as been our DE Danielle Hunter from LSU. Hunter is the youngest player in NFL just turned 21, but is #2 among rookies with 6 sacks while playing as a backup DE.

- Historically young teams struggle in the playoffs. Vikings have a bright future ahead, but they are not an elite team nor do I think they are ready to beat elite teams like Seattle. Too many issues at O-line have hindered Teddy's development and he's a young QB who is still in the 2 steps forward, 1 step backwards process. Seattle is young as well but still a veteran team with Super Bowl experience and I expect them to win.

- I do expect Seattle to win, but due to weather and Zimmer getting another crack at you guys with Smith & Barr will change his gameplan. That being said Wilson is a very talented pain in the ass and that defense is still tops. I doubt we see another blowout, I'm thinking more like 27-17.

- If the Vikings have one thing in their favor, it's that there's zero pressure on them and IMO all the pressure is on Seattle. Nobody is giving the Vikings a chance, and that's probably warranted. We as Vikes fans already won our mini-Super Bowl just by finally beating the Packers and winning the NFCN. That's huge progress for us and I think most are thrilled with how far we've come under Zimmer after a 5 win season 2 years ago. Right now we're playing with house money.

- Safe travels to anyone going to the game, bring your thermal underwear!

Great post.

And I still remember when the Vikings upset the 49ers in Jan. '88 at The Stick.
Awesome.

Jerry Burns coaching then. Loved Bud Grant.
They are both 88 yrs old and kickin'. Was great to see Bud greet Pete before their the game a few weeks ago.

The cold makes it interesting, for sure, especially for kicking PAT's and FG's, which could figure heavily in temperatures forecast for Sunday. Houschka is still a great kicker, but he's missed 4 extra points this season (including one blocked), and shanked a 41 yd attempt a few days ago (along with hitting a pair of 52 yarders. Go figure).

The wealth of playoff experience is a big x-factor advantage for Seattle, and they know better than to look past Any opponent in the post season. Bridgewater is steady overall. 23 yrs old, wow. Good kid with definite upside.

AP? Looked completely disinterested last time, but that game got out of hand quickly. Seahawks on a roll after clubbing Cards, who wanted that game pretty badly, regardless of of what old man Arians was spinning post game.

I expect a closer game like yourself, with AP having a better day, albeit not a good enough one to carry his team.
IMO, Minnesota has to hope for 3+ turnovers by Seattle, be it weather related mishaps on ST's, fumbled snaps, etc.

Speaking of special teams, Tyler Lockett is a Huge difference maker there. The kid is Lights Out on returns, and I suspect he'll have a major impact on this game concerning field position. He may even get to return some kickoffs since touchbacks are difficult in freezing temps.

Best thing about the NFL - you never know what's gonna end up happening. The Minnesota Vikings made Huge strides this year. I do not think they'll be a one hit wonder moving forward. Have fun Sunday.
 

Dizzlepdx

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johnnyfever":31ptuci8 said:
The one thing no one is talking about as far as the last vikes game. The refs seriously bent them over. The whole time I was watching it I felt bad for them, as we are normally the ones on the bad side of calls. I haven't seen a game that poorly officiated for that length of time in forever. We will win, but the refs won't be bringing that many presents on sunday.

Completely disagree, at least when the game was still anywhere near salvageable. From what I saw there were 3 bad calls in the first half-

1)Illegal contact against Wright when Bridgewater had left the pocket. Would have been 4th down.
2)Holding against the CB who was covering Lockett, would have been 4th down.
3)Personal Foul on Minny DL for holding onto RW's foot after whistle blew, but RW still fighting. Would have been 3rd and long, but in FG range.

Were there some egregious calls in the 2nd half, yes. But as others have said, it was already over.
 
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