Wilson might be on the cusp of a MONSTER season

kearly · Jan 22, 2016

Some interesting splits to consider for Wilson's 2015 season. Times they are a changin'.

Russell Wilson, pass attempts per game:

2012-2014: 26.1
2015, pre-bye: 26.0
2015, post-bye: 35.9

Wilson's post bye attempts rate would equal 574 pass attempts over 16 games. To put that number in perspective, it would be slightly more pass attempts than Andrew Luck threw in 2013. And here are what Wilson's post bye numbers would look like if prorated over a 16 game season (passing numbers only):

574 attempts, 65.6 completion rate, 8.2 YPA, 4716 yards, 52 TDs, 9 INT

What's interesting to me is that Wilson's completion rate and YPA actually dropped a little in the second half of the season. Wilson's interception rate improved, but not much thanks to two weird playoff games. The two big differences, and they are BIG differences, are Wilson's total attempts and TD rate. Wilson was also dramatically better on 3rd down and in the red zone after switching to spread heavy offense. Also, there's this:

Wilson's passer rating in games where Thomas Rawls led the team in RB carries: 129.7
Wilson's passer rating In all other 2015 games: 94.3 (this includes Wilson's 139.6 rated performance against Baltimore which Rawls started)

What's interesting about these numbers is that the boost from the spread shift impacts them equally: half of the Rawls' games were post-bye, and half of the non-Rawls games were post-bye. The non-Rawls games are hindered a bit by three ugly games with poor game conditions near the end of the season, so the gap is probably exaggerated a bit. But still, Wilson's numbers go through the roof with Rawls, including a huge jump in completion percentage (73.3% with Rawls).

Now before anybody gets TOO excited, we could have looked at Wilson's 2nd half numbers in 2012 and gotten very excited about the offense in 2013. The offense in 2013 was good, but not as amazing as it was in the 2nd half of 2012. The reason being, the NFL was not ready for the read option in 2012, but it was better equipped to stop it the next season. In a similar way, opponents will have the offseason to game plan for Seattle as a spread heavy team and that will dim the numbers some.

All that said, it seems like Seattle is on the cusp of a sensational offense going into 2016, and that's not getting into the chances of an improved OL or the return of Graham / Richardson or Wilson being coached into a larger role in commanding the offense.

Next year is going to be a lot of fun.

scutterhawk · Jan 22, 2016

It's a mind blower to realize that he has yet to come close to hitting his ceiling.
If he gets an Offensive Line that moves up anywhere close to the top 7?

Seahawk_Dan · Jan 22, 2016

kearly":om89ldmx said:
Some interesting splits to consider for Wilson's 2015 season. Times they are a changin'.

Russell Wilson, pass attempts per game:

2012-2014: 26.1
2015, pre-bye: 26.0
2015, post-bye: 35.9

Wilson's post bye attempts rate would equal 574 pass attempts over 16 games. To put that number in perspective, it would be slightly more pass attempts than Andrew Luck threw in 2013. And here are what Wilson's post bye numbers would look like if prorated over a 16 game season (passing numbers only):

574 attempts, 65.6 completion rate, 8.2 YPA, 4716 yards, 52 TDs, 9 INT

What's interesting to me is that Wilson's completion rate and YPA actually dropped a little in the second half of the season. Wilson's interception rate improved, but not much thanks to two weird playoff games. The two big differences, and they are BIG differences, are Wilson's total attempts and TD rate. Wilson was also dramatically better on 3rd down and in the red zone after switching to spread heavy offense. Also, there's this:

Wilson's passer rating in games where Thomas Rawls led the team in RB carries: 129.7
Wilson's passer rating In all other 2015 games: 94.3 (this includes Wilson's 139.6 rated performance against Baltimore which Rawls started)

What's interesting about these numbers is that the boost from the spread shift impacts them equally: half of the Rawls' games were post-bye, and half of the non-Rawls games were post-bye. The non-Rawls games are hindered a bit by three ugly games with poor game conditions near the end of the season, so the gap is probably exaggerated a bit. But still, Wilson's numbers go through the roof with Rawls, including a huge jump in completion percentage (73.3% with Rawls).

Now before anybody gets TOO excited, we could have looked at Wilson's 2nd half numbers in 2012 and gotten very excited about the offense in 2013. The offense in 2013 was good, but not as amazing as it was in the 2nd half of 2012. The reason being, the NFL was not ready for the read option in 2012, but it was better equipped to stop it the next season. In a similar way, opponents will have the offseason to game plan for Seattle as a spread heavy team and that will dim the numbers some.

All that said, it seems like Seattle is on the cusp of a sensational offense going into 2016, and that's not getting into the chances of an improved OL or the return of Graham / Richardson or Wilson being coached into a larger role in commanding the offense.

Next year is going to be a lot of fun.

That's all well and good, but... I don't know, he just still seems too small. Hey, do you think the Niners would be willing to trade Kaepernick? I think that kid may be going places!

Like the unemployment line.

hawkfan68 · Jan 22, 2016

Great post Kearly. The numbers show what a terrific season RW had despite some of the challenges he faced in 2015. It still was his best year from a statistics standpoint. Now if he puts up the numbers as you have projected in 2016-17 season, there will be no debating him being a top 5 NFL QB. With those numbers he'd be in the discussion as being the best QB in the NFL.

ivotuk · Jan 22, 2016

Seahawk_Dan":1z4rbug0 said:
kearly":1z4rbug0 said:

Some interesting splits to consider for Wilson's 2015 season. Times they are a changin'.

Russell Wilson, pass attempts per game:

2012-2014: 26.1
2015, pre-bye: 26.0
2015, post-bye: 35.9

Wilson's post bye attempts rate would equal 574 pass attempts over 16 games. To put that number in perspective, it would be slightly more pass attempts than Andrew Luck threw in 2013. And here are what Wilson's post bye numbers would look like if prorated over a 16 game season (passing numbers only):

574 attempts, 65.6 completion rate, 8.2 YPA, 4716 yards, 52 TDs, 9 INT

What's interesting to me is that Wilson's completion rate and YPA actually dropped a little in the second half of the season. Wilson's interception rate improved, but not much thanks to two weird playoff games. The two big differences, and they are BIG differences, are Wilson's total attempts and TD rate. Wilson was also dramatically better on 3rd down and in the red zone after switching to spread heavy offense. Also, there's this:

Wilson's passer rating in games where Thomas Rawls led the team in RB carries: 129.7
Wilson's passer rating In all other 2015 games: 94.3 (this includes Wilson's 139.6 rated performance against Baltimore which Rawls started)

What's interesting about these numbers is that the boost from the spread shift impacts them equally: half of the Rawls' games were post-bye, and half of the non-Rawls games were post-bye. The non-Rawls games are hindered a bit by three ugly games with poor game conditions near the end of the season, so the gap is probably exaggerated a bit. But still, Wilson's numbers go through the roof with Rawls, including a huge jump in completion percentage (73.3% with Rawls).

Now before anybody gets TOO excited, we could have looked at Wilson's 2nd half numbers in 2012 and gotten very excited about the offense in 2013. The offense in 2013 was good, but not as amazing as it was in the 2nd half of 2012. The reason being, the NFL was not ready for the read option in 2012, but it was better equipped to stop it the next season. In a similar way, opponents will have the offseason to game plan for Seattle as a spread heavy team and that will dim the numbers some.

All that said, it seems like Seattle is on the cusp of a sensational offense going into 2016, and that's not getting into the chances of an improved OL or the return of Graham / Richardson or Wilson being coached into a larger role in commanding the offense.

Next year is going to be a lot of fun.

Click to expand...

That's all well and good, but... I don't know, he just still seems too small. Hey, do you think the Niners would be willing to trade Kaepernick? I think that kid may be going places!

LOL! You got me! :192215:

Like the unemployment line.

DavidSeven · Jan 22, 2016

If we can protect, particularly on the inside, I don't see any reason why this offense shouldn't soar next season.

Big if.

Newton and Dalton made huge jumps in Year 5. They were aided by excellent play up front. This is potentially a big year for Russell's development. Another step back at OL, like 2013 and 2015, would be really unfortunate.

Hasselbeck · Jan 22, 2016

I really think JS will address the OL in a big way in the offseason. History dictates that this front office identifies the biggest need and attacks it. Following the 2012 loss, they brought in Avril and Bennett to shore up an invisible pass rush in Atlanta .. Following the XLIX loss.. they go get Jimmy Graham to bolster the red zone attack and give Russ a viable weapon in the pass game (something that was really starting to take off then the injury happened)

Following this years playoff loss? I think you're going to see us add 1-2 veterans in FA/trade (really want to say trade is more likely just to go with the compensatory draft pick reload the franchise does every year now) and draft someone early to fill Russell Okung's spot (again circling back to the compensatory pick thing)

If we do indeed shore up the OL, I agree with kearly in that Russ can have a monster 2016.

But that's the only way I can really feel good about him improving even further on an incredible 2015.

joeseahawks · Jan 22, 2016

Great numbers, but you seem to forget the $$$/team/market dynamics.
The more Russell throws, the better the numbers for his receivers. Doug, Jermaine having career numbers.
The better the numbers for receivers, the more money they will command.
The more money you put on offense, the less money you put on defense.
More money for Doug, Jermaine, Jimmy, Tyler ... means less money for Kam, Bennet, KJ, ... etc.
I have a hard time believing that Pete will willingly change philosophies and make Russell become an Andrew Luck. I don't have any doubt that Russell is capable of throwing 40+ touchdowns in a season. I just don't believe that our coaching staff has that mentality. Pete still believes that the way we win games is by: 1. Running the ball; 2. Playing defense and 3. converting third downs. To me, this means his money will always be on defense first.
I just don't see Russell throwing for some 40+ touchdowns in a season.

WilsonMVP · Jan 22, 2016

DavidSeven":yrizlxif said:
If we can protect, particularly on the inside, I don't see any reason why this offense shouldn't soar next season.

Big if.

Newton and Dalton made huge jumps in Year 5. They were aided by excellent play up front. This is potentially a big year for Russell's development. Another step back at OL, like 2013 and 2015, would be really unfortunate.

If Wilson got at least average protection from the Oline his numbers will be good.

Newton had a good year in part because his defense had 39 takeaways and they had a +20 turnover differential which were tops in the league. He has always been at least average IMO. People who were all over Lucks jock should of looked at Newtons numbers. He was actually fairly similar if you add in add his rushing stats yet people wanted to disregard Cam and make it a Wilson vs Luck debate and ignoring Cam.

To me the thing with Cam is consistency. This year he had 7 games where he had less than a 80 passer rating. For an MVP of the league this year that is a JOKE IMO. Wilson only had 1 game lower than 80. That is almost half of his starts in the regular season he was toward the bottom of the league. On the other hand he had 8 games that were above a 100 passer rating. Wilson had 8 as well.

Keyhawk · Jan 22, 2016

Terrific post. Let's address the offensive line this offseason and really take the offense to the next level.

kearly · Jan 22, 2016

joeseahawks":30ryl2rt said:
Great numbers, but you seem to forget the $$$/team/market dynamics.
The more Russell throws, the better the numbers for his receivers. Doug, Jermaine having career numbers.
The better the numbers for receivers, the more money they will command.
The more money you put on offense, the less money you put on defense.
More money for Doug, Jermaine, Jimmy, Tyler ... means less money for Kam, Bennet, KJ, ... etc.
I have a hard time believing that Pete will willingly change philosophies and make Russell become an Andrew Luck. I don't have any doubt that Russell is capable of throwing 40+ touchdowns in a season. I just don't believe that our coaching staff has that mentality. Pete still believes that the way we win games is by: 1. Running the ball; 2. Playing defense and 3. converting third downs. To me, this means his money will always be on defense first.
I just don't see Russell throwing for some 40+ touchdowns in a season.

It's funny because back in 2011 and 2012, when the team was much better known for its defense, something like 70% of the money spent on the roster went to offense. IIRC, in 2011 Seattle had the highest percentage of money going to offense of any team in the NFL.

And now in 2016, the opposite is true. The offense will probably be the better unit next season, but cost significantly less than the defense.

I think many of your points are totally legit. I think Pete would want every Seahawks team to look like the 2013 version if he could do it. But Pete is also a realist, and the reality is that the current roster can dominate out of the spread, but is deeply flawed as a power team.

kearly · Jan 22, 2016

WilsonMVP":1plkbwd6 said:
DavidSeven":1plkbwd6 said:

If we can protect, particularly on the inside, I don't see any reason why this offense shouldn't soar next season.

Big if.

Newton and Dalton made huge jumps in Year 5. They were aided by excellent play up front. This is potentially a big year for Russell's development. Another step back at OL, like 2013 and 2015, would be really unfortunate.

Click to expand...

If Wilson got at least average protection from the Oline his numbers will be good.

Spreading out defenses and forcing them to tip their hand when blitzing, coupled with a proficient quick pass attack, went a long way towards covering up for OL deficiencies last year. Just look at Wilson's sack numbers before and after the home Cardinals game. Similarly, Thomas Rawls rushed for 5.7 YPC behind a bad line. Much like Justin Forsett in 2008 and 2009, it's sometimes possible for a RB to thrive in spite of poor blocking.

The problem becomes, what if the game conditions take away the quick passing game? What if Thomas Rawls gets injured and can't play? When faced with those issues at the same time, the OL issues quickly bubbled back to the surface.

In other words, I view improving the OL as almost being a luxury. Seattle actually won a SB with the worst OL in the NFL, because they found a way to overcome it. In 2013, they overcame it with Lynch and defense. In 2016, they could overcome it with Rawls and a quick passing attack out of the spread.

Of course, it wouldn't hurt to make the interior stronger, to save it for a rainy day...

HawKnPeppa · Jan 22, 2016

scutterhawk":hn1ybp29 said:
It's a mind blower to realize that he has yet to come close to hitting his ceiling.
If he gets an Offensive Line that moves up anywhere close to the top 7?

The OL has been bad, on average, for so long that the prospect of being top 7 is surreal just to think about.

HawKnPeppa · Jan 22, 2016

kearly":13dngcwk said:
WilsonMVP":13dngcwk said:

DavidSeven":13dngcwk said:

If we can protect, particularly on the inside, I don't see any reason why this offense shouldn't soar next season.

Big if.

Newton and Dalton made huge jumps in Year 5. They were aided by excellent play up front. This is potentially a big year for Russell's development. Another step back at OL, like 2013 and 2015, would be really unfortunate.

Click to expand...

If Wilson got at least average protection from the Oline his numbers will be good.

Click to expand...

Spreading out defenses and forcing them to tip their hand when blitzing, coupled with a proficient quick pass attack, went a long way towards covering up for OL deficiencies last year. Just look at Wilson's sack numbers before and after the home Cardinals game. Similarly, Thomas Rawls rushed for 5.7 YPC behind a bad line. Much like Justin Forsett in 2008 and 2009, it's sometimes possible for a RB to thrive in spite of poor blocking.

The problem becomes, what if the game conditions take away the quick passing game? What if Thomas Rawls gets injured and can't play? When faced with those issues at the same time, the OL issues quickly bubbled back to the surface.

In other words, I view improving the OL as almost being a luxury. Seattle actually won a SB with the worst OL in the NFL, because they found a way to overcome it. In 2013, they overcame it with Lynch and defense. In 2016, they could overcome it with Rawls and a quick passing attack out of the spread.

Of course, it wouldn't hurt to make the interior stronger, to save it for a rainy day...

Especially since the 'rainy days' usually happen when you reach January. I would say the chances of a playoff-caliber team having a DL that can defeat smoke-and-mirror protection goes up exponentially. Sometimes some regular-season rainy days come back and bite you in the posterior, as the two Rams games did. I'm tired of having an inferior OL, and this years draft might bode well for the future, though it will take longer than next season to see the improvements from that.

MontanaHawk05 · Jan 22, 2016

WilsonMVP":2cckts67 said:
To me the thing with Cam is consistency. This year he had 7 games where he had less than a 80 passer rating. For an MVP of the league this year that is a JOKE IMO. Wilson only had 1 game lower than 80. That is almost half of his starts in the regular season he was toward the bottom of the league. On the other hand he had 8 games that were above a 100 passer rating. Wilson had 8 as well.

And that's the difference between OL-dependent quarterbacks and...the other guys. When you're a Newton, a Dalton, a Drew Brees, or a Tony Romo, your fortunes go up and down by how well the defense is breaching your protection. When you're a Brady, pre-Denver Peyton, a Roethlisberger, or a Russell Wilson, you're able to find a way around even bad protection.

HawKnPeppa · Jan 22, 2016

MontanaHawk05":1ixhh8ik said:
WilsonMVP":1ixhh8ik said:

To me the thing with Cam is consistency. This year he had 7 games where he had less than a 80 passer rating. For an MVP of the league this year that is a JOKE IMO. Wilson only had 1 game lower than 80. That is almost half of his starts in the regular season he was toward the bottom of the league. On the other hand he had 8 games that were above a 100 passer rating. Wilson had 8 as well.

Click to expand...

And that's the difference between OL-dependent quarterbacks and...the other guys. When you're a Newton, a Dalton, a Drew Brees, or a Tony Romo, your fortunes go up and down by how well the defense is breaching your protection. When you're a Brady, pre-Denver Peyton, a Roethlisberger, or a Russell Wilson, you're able to find a way around even bad protection.

It still miss Steve Hutchinson. Even Aaron Donald would have an 'off day' against him. It'd be really cool to see most of our plays develop as intended.

Erebus · Jan 22, 2016

joeseahawks":u86h2xry said:
Great numbers, but you seem to forget the $$$/team/market dynamics.
The more Russell throws, the better the numbers for his receivers. Doug, Jermaine having career numbers.
The better the numbers for receivers, the more money they will command.
The more money you put on offense, the less money you put on defense.
More money for Doug, Jermaine, Jimmy, Tyler ... means less money for Kam, Bennet, KJ, ... etc.
I have a hard time believing that Pete will willingly change philosophies and make Russell become an Andrew Luck. I don't have any doubt that Russell is capable of throwing 40+ touchdowns in a season. I just don't believe that our coaching staff has that mentality. Pete still believes that the way we win games is by: 1. Running the ball; 2. Playing defense and 3. converting third downs. To me, this means his money will always be on defense first.
I just don't see Russell throwing for some 40+ touchdowns in a season.

Are you suggesting Pete would intentionally keep Wilson's passing attempts down just to keep our receivers from earning a bigger paycheck?

DavidSeven · Jan 22, 2016

kearly":22vnbq8k said:
In other words, I view improving the OL as almost being a luxury. Seattle actually won a SB with the worst OL in the NFL, because they found a way to overcome it. In 2013, they overcame it with Lynch and defense. In 2016, they could overcome it with Rawls and a quick passing attack out of the spread.

I know 2013 is brought up frequently in defense of ignoring the OL, but I'd raise the following arguments against that notion:

1. Except OL, that 2013 team was one of the most talented teams in NFL history. Yet, we were 13-3 and nearly lost 3 or 4 other games. By talent, they should've been 15-1 or better. In every game we lost (or almost lost), it was because we couldn't block Robert Mathis or JJ Watt or Calais Campbell or Robert Quinn, etc. There is little chance we have that much compensating talent any time in the near future.

2. Our terrible OL performance that year was largely due to injury. We had Paul McQuistan and Michael Bowie starting at left and right tackle. Maybe the worst tackle combo ever. That said, we went into the playoffs healthy and the OL played very well. Would we have won the championship if McQ and Bowie were still starting? I find it highly unlikely. Contrast to 2015, where we stayed pretty healthy and, yet, managed to be one of the worst OLs in the league. That bit us in the end.

joeseahawks · Jan 22, 2016

What I'm saying is that, Pete has won games and SBs relying on a unit, where he has invested most of his Salary Cap.
I don't believe Pete goes into a game thinking, we need to throw the ball 50 times to win. Russell throwing a lot in the second part of the season was more out of need (desperation), rather than out of philosophical change.
It will be interesting to see how Doug's great season will translate in the offseason.

Erebus":1eedb8bs said:
joeseahawks":1eedb8bs said:

Great numbers, but you seem to forget the $$$/team/market dynamics.
The more Russell throws, the better the numbers for his receivers. Doug, Jermaine having career numbers.
The better the numbers for receivers, the more money they will command.
The more money you put on offense, the less money you put on defense.
More money for Doug, Jermaine, Jimmy, Tyler ... means less money for Kam, Bennet, KJ, ... etc.
I have a hard time believing that Pete will willingly change philosophies and make Russell become an Andrew Luck. I don't have any doubt that Russell is capable of throwing 40+ touchdowns in a season. I just don't believe that our coaching staff has that mentality. Pete still believes that the way we win games is by: 1. Running the ball; 2. Playing defense and 3. converting third downs. To me, this means his money will always be on defense first.
I just don't see Russell throwing for some 40+ touchdowns in a season.

Click to expand...

Are you suggesting Pete would intentionally keep Wilson's passing attempts down just to keep our receivers from earning a bigger paycheck?

scutterhawk · Jan 22, 2016

HawKnPeppa":1oxiwdek said:
scutterhawk":1oxiwdek said:

It's a mind blower to realize that he has yet to come close to hitting his ceiling.
If he gets an Offensive Line that moves up anywhere close to the top 7?

Click to expand...

The OL has been bad, on average, for so long that the prospect of being top 7 is surreal just to think about.

Could be wishful thinking on my part, but it would appear that Pete had Tom Cable taking the Offensive line and trending to make it more of a pass oriented unit, well, at least in the second half of the Season, he showed that he has some flexibility, and after all's said, moving the chains was his first priority.
Once Wilson showed that he CAN pass from the pocket, and utilize the WHOLE FIELD, it was time to tweak the Run-Pass ratio.
I'm thinking that with the way that Thomas Rawls was getting it done without having the Offense opening up a lot of holes for the run game, is why Cable said that Marshawn would have to make some adjustments when he came back.
I believe that Pete is still going to want his running % to be somewhat substantial, but I don't think that he's going to put the skids on RW if he's moving the ball successfully.

Wilson might be on the cusp of a MONSTER season

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