Dream Scenario for the 2016 Offseason

All of us have to come to the realization that JS/PC will NOT have a bunch of cap space, and there will not be anywhere near enough money to sign our most expensive FA's. I would re-sign Kearse and Lane, but only if they aren't too expensive. Then, trade our first round #26 pick for a 2nd rounder (appx. #35 overall) and a 3rd rounder (appx. #88 overall), giving us at least 10 picks...that would be 5 picks between 35 and 98 overall (a lot of good players ranked from #35 to 100)!

Pick close to this order: DT, OT, OC, DT, OG, OLB, OT, WR, CB, RB. I would be very willing to deviate from that plan if the right draftees are still on the board when our turn comes up.

I would let both Rubin and Mebane walk, unless they can get Rubin on the cheap. Rubin will be 30 and Mebane is 32. Both of them have seen better days...in their heyday, Rubin averaged 70-80 tackles and Mebane averaged nearly 60. They've experienced a steep decline and are way overpaid the last couple of years...$8.3 million for the both of them is way too much for only 20-30 tackles each and they just don't put any pressure on QB's. I would go with Hill, 2 draftees, 1 or 2 cheap young FA's on a 1-year. Maybe a couple of UDFA gems if they're out there. Compete.

I would actually let both Okung and Sweezy walk also. We need to improve our pass protection, as Wilson has proven to be an elite QB when afforded some semblance of pass protection. Okung is not that great overall and injured far too much, while Sweezy is not even average at run blocking, much less pass protection. Face it, neither of them is really all that good. I figure if some of our young guys can improve this offseason and we get 3 or 4 more traditional O-Line draftees (no more projects, we need help NOW), they could probably outperform last year's O-Line. I would NOT spend major bucks on any FA's this year. If they get 1 or 2 FA O-Linemen on the cheap, great. Compete.

I would let Irvin walk, as he will get way more than we can afford to pay him this year. Go with Pierre-Louis and Pinkins...add 1 or 2 LB's in the draft...maybe find an UDFA gem or sign a cheap LB FA to a 1-year. Compete.

Not the greatest year for drafting a WR. I would try to re-sign Kearse at $3.5 million. Maybe Richardson finally has the year he's capable of. In case Graham doesn't make it back, draft a tall WR. Our TE corps seemed to be adequate without Graham. Compete.

The good news is that if we let 4 players out of Mebane, Okung, Irvin, Sweezy and Rubin walk, we'll get some awesome compensatory picks for 2017...maybe even 2- 3rd rounders and 2- 4th rounders. The thing is, if we keep all the old guys and never give new guys a chance, our team will get old really fast. I believe in the "out with the old, in with the new" philosophy. And I honestly don't think expensive FA's/trades are the route for us...think Harvin, Graham, Cary Williams. If there was any lesson to be learned from the 2010 to 2012 seasons, it's that the way to build a successful team is through the draft. That has to be the #1 priority. I firmly believe that the reason we declined in 2015 is because our drafts in 2013 and 2014 were not very productive.

I don't think they'll spend half of their draft picks on offensive lineman.

It's clear they like some of the guys on the team some of last years picks who are waiting in the wings. I don't want Sweezy back, I hope they let him walk. I think we'll draft 2-3 players along the OL and another 2 defensive linemen. A linebacker or two, a secondary player and probably either a TE or WR or both.

In your scenario, both the defensive and offensive lines are severely weakened. If the goal every year is to have the most draft picks, then yes you have a good plan. Build through the draft? Absolutely! But you are advocating getting rid of the 2 best DT's and the 2 best OLineman at the same time. I totally get the idea of dumping the older more expensive contract guys and building through the draft but it really has to be done in stages.

The arguably worst unit on the team and the popular reason for not going deeper in the playoffs is the O-line. You want to take the 2 best guys on there and remove them both at one time? And then hope and pray that their replacements are either already on the team (and unable to unseat these guys on a horrible line in 2015) or draft guys who may or may not be ready to protect Russ in 2016? You think the line was bad last year? This is a recipe for making the 2015 version look like all pros!

Pete likes to load positions to comPETE for the right to get on the field. You don't just let your best guys go in hopes that you can replace them. The d-line was bereft of depth behind Mebane and Rubin.

Are we supposed to feel good about an o-line with possibly 2 2016 draft picks starting along with the other 3 of Britt, Gilliam and Lewis?

At worst either Mebane or Rubin will be gone, not both. Same for the o-line with Okung and Sweezy. Best case scenario is that they find a way to keep all 4 and draft guys with potential that can push them for playing time or roster positions.

Appreciate the effort, pookie, but you lost me with letting Bane and Rubin walk...using tackle numbers as the basis.

jlwaters1":3cp2hfb2 said:

I don't think they'll spend half of their draft picks on offensive lineman.

It's clear they like some of the guys on the team some of last years picks who are waiting in the wings. I don't want Sweezy back, I hope they let him walk. I think we'll draft 2-3 players along the OL and another 2 defensive linemen. A linebacker or two, a secondary player and probably either a TE or WR or both.

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If they spend at least 2 of their O-Line picks between #56 and #98, I'd be in heaven. I guess I don't really care if they pick at least 3 O-Linemen total, rather than 4. I just don't want picks like Poole or Sokoli this year. No more projects! I think Glowinski was probably a good pick. If they used all 3 O-Line picks on traditional linemen with 3 or 4 years experience at their position in college, I'd be ecstatic. I want guys like Clark, Garnett, Ifedi, Coleman, Martin, Kelly, Spriggs, Glasgow, Beavers, Dahl, Tretola...if they can land 3 of these guys, they should be able to integrate them into the line with the guys we have and make an average O-Line out of it. Wilson doesn't have to have the #1 O-Line in the NFL, but it sucks for him to have the #32 line! With a little luck, this kind of line could become a Top 10 line for a few years and cost the Seahawks very little in cap space. Guys like Okung at $10 million is ridiculous.

I feel Okung will not be going anywhere, his recovery date from the surgery (June) will put off any GM's thiniing of a long deal with him. I see him signing a one year deal with Seattle, and get healthy before he leaves. It won't be 10 myn, more like 7 or 8, but a one year deal with incentives, which he will probably never get because he just can't stay on the field.

JMHO guys

M.M.

pehawk":1tg5p3ly said:

Appreciate the effort, pookie, but you lost me with letting Bane and Rubin walk...using tackle numbers as the basis.

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The reason I used tackles was only to gage their production as compared to previous years. I could use sacks, but that would look even worse and I think it would be less pertinent. I believe that Mebane and Rubin's lack of production made life a lot more difficult this year for the LOB. Look, I love these guys, but this is a business. Sometimes tough choices must be made for the good of the team.

Mebane tackles beginning in 2007: 29, 39, 49, 31, 56, 56, 45, 20, 24. He missed 7 games in 2014, and 1 game in 2015. He puts very little pressure on the QB and no longer has the ooomph to collapse the pocket from the inside. I would not pay him more than $2 million, and I don't think he'll play for that.

Rubin tackles beginning in 2008: 11, 38, 82, 82, 44, 53, 28, 36. He missed 8 games from 2012- 2014. If they can re-sign him at $2.6 million again, I'd be fine with keeping him. I have a feeling he won't play for that another year, but I could be wrong.

You can dismiss the number of tackles, but it shows how much their production has declined over the last few years. If we keep Mebane for $5 million and he gets only 5 or 10 tackles and misses 5 or 6 games in 2016, would you be willing to part ways then? I submit that would be a little late.

With Lynch's retirement, we've got $24.5 million in cap space (assuming $150mil cap), which is enough for 2 mid-level contracts ($4-5 mil apy) and paying our draft class (overthecap says we'll need $6mil http://overthecap.com/draft/). That leaves us with $8.5 million in space for vet minimums/ low price FAs/ injury replacements. I've fine with letting Mebane walk (32 and counting and wants a longer deal), but I really think we should make a push to keep Rubin. Pete said he's the best 3-tech we've had in the JSPC era and his hustle pops off the screen (catching guys 15 yards down the field). Guy never gets moved. I think we'll draft some complementary pieces (hopefully a pass rushing DT), but we really need to keep one of our rocks in the middle. The second contract is TBD. I'd love to keep Lane but he may have a richer market elsewhere. Maybe the injury prone/doesn't play outside much will keep the number in range, but I doubt it. Glow can step right in for Sweezy. Richardson and Smith for Kearse (maybe at 2-3 mil apy but even then I'd think). Draft Okung's replacement/ someone to compete with Bailey.

To free up some space, we could also show Mike Bennett a little love and lower his cap number a $mil or two this year and push his bigger numbers into future, ever-expanding salary caps. Next year is when the 2013 draft class hits the end of their rookie deals and our biggest "priorities" will be Luke Willson and Hill and I wouldn't lose sleep over letting them walk. Haush$ and Baldwin will be the only real UFA priorities and with another $10 mil in cap room, I can imagine those deals could easily be done.

Pssst.... its 2016.

I actually disagree Bane can no longer get after the QB.

IMO, Richard made a mistake adhering to the "schedule" and subbing for Mebane in nickle automatically. Bane consistently collapsed the interior when given the chance. He should've been in there on nickle in pivotal situations (4th quarter of alot of the games). I understand the reasoning behind subbing him out. Totally. But, bending on that nickle sub group may've saved a blown 4Q or two...IMO.

Marlin Man":1i9nq9dj said:

I feel Okung will not be going anywhere, his recovery date from the surgery (June) will put off any GM's thiniing of a long deal with him. I see him signing a one year deal with Seattle, and get healthy before he leaves. It won't be 10 myn, more like 7 or 8, but a one year deal with incentives, which he will probably never get because he just can't stay on the field.

JMHO guys

M.M.

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So your thinking that we should keep a guy that is injury prone at a salary that no one else in the NFL would be willing to pay? Okung is now a far cry from that Pro Bowler in 2012. $8 million is a LOT of money to pay to a guy that is ranked the #31 OT by PFF with a below average grade.

pehawk":1o4zl4cq said:

I actually disagree Bane can no longer get after the QB.

IMO, Richard made a mistake adhering to the "schedule" and subbing for Mebane in nickle automatically. Bane consistently collapsed the interior when given the chance. He should've been in there on nickle in pivotal situations (4th quarter of alot of the games). I understand the reasoning behind subbing him out. Totally. But, bending on that nickle sub group may've saved a blown 4Q or two...IMO.

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To your point, Mebane was the only d-lineman to register multiple pressures against Carolina. The question is whether he's worth $5mil+/ year at age 32. He already told the Hawks last season that he won't take a paycut. If we can get him back on a 2 yr/ $7mil, I'd be all for it, but I think he'll get closer to his current $5-6mil elsewhere.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/bl...ke-kuechly-kawann-short-star-in-panthers-win/

Willyeye":vt8wf3lu said:

jlwaters1":vt8wf3lu said:

I don't think they'll spend half of their draft picks on offensive lineman.

It's clear they like some of the guys on the team some of last years picks who are waiting in the wings. I don't want Sweezy back, I hope they let him walk. I think we'll draft 2-3 players along the OL and another 2 defensive linemen. A linebacker or two, a secondary player and probably either a TE or WR or both.

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If they spend at least 2 of their O-Line picks between #56 and #98, I'd be in heaven. I guess I don't really care if they pick at least 3 O-Linemen total, rather than 4. I just don't want picks like Poole or Sokoli this year. No more projects! I think Glowinski was probably a good pick. If they used all 3 O-Line picks on traditional linemen with 3 or 4 years experience at their position in college, I'd be ecstatic. I want guys like Clark, Garnett, Ifedi, Coleman, Martin, Kelly, Spriggs, Glasgow, Beavers, Dahl, Tretola...if they can land 3 of these guys, they should be able to integrate them into the line with the guys we have and make an average O-Line out of it. Wilson doesn't have to have the #1 O-Line in the NFL, but it sucks for him to have the #32 line! With a little luck, this kind of line could become a Top 10 line for a few years and cost the Seahawks very little in cap space. Guys like Okung at $10 million is ridiculous.

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I think there are question marks with every one of the names you mentioned. I would be surprised if any rookie will come out and be prepared to be day one starters AND be instant upgrades over Okung and Sweezy. Sure-things go in the first 5-10 picks. That isn't to say that the guys you mentioned are busts, I like some of the names on your list, but to think that just drafting names off that list is going to fix the O-Line is relying on more than just a little luck. I don't think Seattle should avoid OL, but we need to be realistic that anyone they grab is going to be a little bit of a project.

I think not retaining one of Mebane or Rubin would be a mistake as well. You do not patch the interior DL in the draft. I've watched a lot of DL prospects this year, and there are some I like, but DL line is historically one of the hardest positions to get instant impact out of. I don't even think there will be a Frank Clark caliber DL prospect at #26. So even if Seattle doubled up on DL, the probability of having a steep drop off in interior production is very high. I think Seattle needs to stick to the plan and continue to add bargain bin DL FA's, though I expect the market won't necessarily favor us this year.

This plan seems incredibly reliant on having the best draft in franchise history, in a class that I think is weaker than previous years. Particularly at the positions Seattle needs to upgrade. Can it work? Sure. But it does feel a bit like a dream.

pehawk":zv113avo said:

I actually disagree Bane can no longer get after the QB.

IMO, Richard made a mistake adhering to the "schedule" and subbing for Mebane in nickle automatically. Bane consistently collapsed the interior when given the chance. He should've been in there on nickle in pivotal situations (4th quarter of alot of the games). I understand the reasoning behind subbing him out. Totally. But, bending on that nickle sub group may've saved a blown 4Q or two...IMO.

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I guess I wouldn't mind keeping Rubin at the right price, but I don't think they can afford to pay both him and Mebane. This year's draft is loaded with good DT's...this would be the year to replenish the D-Line. With a couple of good DT picks, I think it would be a good time to part ways with Mebane...far better to do it now than to waste $4 or 5 million in cap space and keep Mebane for 2016. I think they could easily draft a guy that could replace Mebane and be a huge improvement.

Pehawk is right.

That might also explain why we seem to consistently give up the long 3rd yardage plays.

Frankly, not that big of a fan of Rubin. He doesn't get moved but he doesn't move either. No pressure on the QB at all from that guy. Or at least the pressure is ridiculously inconsistent, at best.

But I don't think Mebane is done, and I am not sure that we have anything in the wings to replace him.

We are already going to be losing Irvin, and I don't want this team putting more chips into the offense basket while letting the defense wither.

Hopefully we address the problems with both lines - but I don't want to turn into the Steelers where we just get a world beating offense but the defense vanishes almost overnight. Pretty clear that having a better defense is a key in winning the SB, so we need to keep building on our strengths there.

jdemps":2rimg3mm said:

With Lynch's retirement, we've got $24.5 million in cap space (assuming $150mil cap), which is enough for 2 mid-level contracts ($4-5 mil apy) and paying our draft class (overthecap says we'll need $6mil http://overthecap.com/draft/). That leaves us with $8.5 million in space for vet minimums/ low price FAs/ injury replacements. I've fine with letting Mebane walk (32 and counting and wants a longer deal), but I really think we should make a push to keep Rubin. Pete said he's the best 3-tech we've had in the JSPC era and his hustle pops off the screen (catching guys 15 yards down the field). Guy never gets moved. I think we'll draft some complementary pieces (hopefully a pass rushing DT), but we really need to keep one of our rocks in the middle. The second contract is TBD. I'd love to keep Lane but he may have a richer market elsewhere. Maybe the injury prone/doesn't play outside much will keep the number in range, but I doubt it. Glow can step right in for Sweezy. Richardson and Smith for Kearse (maybe at 2-3 mil apy but even then I'd think). Draft Okung's replacement/ someone to compete with Bailey.

To free up some space, we could also show Mike Bennett a little love and lower his cap number a $mil or two this year and push his bigger numbers into future, ever-expanding salary caps. Next year is when the 2013 draft class hits the end of their rookie deals and our biggest "priorities" will be Luke Willson and Hill and I wouldn't lose sleep over letting them walk. Haush$ and Baldwin will be the only real UFA priorities and with another $10 mil in cap room, I can imagine those deals could easily be done.

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Not sure where you're getting your cap space numbers....According to http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/seattle-seahawks/cap/ we have 29 Mil in cap and that's with Lynch still counting against our cap. With Lynch's retirement, we clear another 6.5 million in cap and we're sitting at about 35.5 million in cap. I'm of the consideration that we're most likely not going to sign Okung. Not at 8 million a year, not even on a 1 year contract. Their are younger guys with less injury problems that would be good fits in free agency, Mitchell Schwartz and Bradley Sowell look the most appealing to me and they would both cost less than Okung combined.

We're most likely going to resign Mebane and Rubin for about the same amount it would take to sign Okung. I see us resigning Lane for 4-5 Mil. a year, especially after the Williams experiment blew up in our faces last year. Lane's a fit, he's young, it'll be incentive laden, but we're keeping him opposite of Sherman. After restructuring Bennett, Kam, possibly Baldwin, resigning our guys minus Okung and Irvin... We're probably looking at having around 12 million in cap, 6 mil of that going to a free agent O-Line combination like Schwartz and Sowell to compete at OT. Maybe an under the radar downfield jump ball WR at a bargain like Marlon Brown or Marvin Jones gets signed.

Bottom Line... We might lose Okung and Irvin, higher priced UFAs, but we're probably going to keep most of our team intact, look for bargains in free agency that round out our team, so we're not heading into the draft in desperate need at a position.

He probably won't come cheaply, but I'd love to see us pick up Lamar Miller. He'd be a great counter-punch to Rawls. The Dolphins clearly have no need for such talent.

Matt Forte is the more fiscally responsible option, but only on a short-term/weighted deal.

oldhawkfan":176a3u40 said:

In your scenario, both the defensive and offensive lines are severely weakened. If the goal every year is to have the most draft picks, then yes you have a good plan. Build through the draft? Absolutely! But you are advocating getting rid of the 2 best DT's and the 2 best OLineman at the same time. I totally get the idea of dumping the older more expensive contract guys and building through the draft but it really has to be done in stages.

The arguably worst unit on the team and the popular reason for not going deeper in the playoffs is the O-line. You want to take the 2 best guys on there and remove them both at one time? And then hope and pray that their replacements are either already on the team (and unable to unseat these guys on a horrible line in 2015) or draft guys who may or may not be ready to protect Russ in 2016? You think the line was bad last year? This is a recipe for making the 2015 version look like all pros!

Pete likes to load positions to comPETE for the right to get on the field. You don't just let your best guys go in hopes that you can replace them. The d-line was bereft of depth behind Mebane and Rubin.

Are we supposed to feel good about an o-line with possibly 2 2016 draft picks starting along with the other 3 of Britt, Gilliam and Lewis?

At worst either Mebane or Rubin will be gone, not both. Same for the o-line with Okung and Sweezy. Best case scenario is that they find a way to keep all 4 and draft guys with potential that can push them for playing time or roster positions.

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The 2016 draft is loaded with O-Line and DT's. They can also find some inexpensive FA's that would be just as good as Mebane, Okung and Sweezy for a lot less money. I'd be good with keeping Rubin for $3 million or less.

I don't want to be one of those guys that thinks a player that was good 4 years ago is still as good as he was back then. I also don't want to be the guy that thinks a player who has been a below average starter for 4 years is worth keeping on the team. Sweezy is the #66 ranked OG in the NFL according to PFF. There are at least 15 rookies from last year's draft that were ranked a LOT higher than Sweezy. The guy sucked. I wouldn't pay him even vet minimum. Lewis was even a lot better than Sweezy. Okung was a Pro Bowler in 2012. The last 2 years he's been an injury-prone LT that played below average. There were even some rookie OT's that were much better than him in 2015. There's no reason to think the Seahawks can't pick at least a couple of replacements that would play as good as Mebane, Okung and Sweezy from day one. Look how much the Seahawks improved when they took some chances from 2010-2012.

JSeahawks":11f6kb4w said:

Pssst.... its 2016.

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Thanks man...fixed!

Don't we HAVE to resign either Mebane or Rubin?

We can't go into training camp with our two most dependable and effective DT's gone, hoping to replace that sort of depth in FA and the draft.

Resign one, get one in FA and draft one or two.