NFL Strength of Schedule

dogorama · Aug 2, 2016

I thought I read somewhere that we have the 15th hardest schedule this year and then tonight I see this SOS schedule and it says 5th! Am I imagining this or do we seem to have a top-5 hardest ranked schedule every year? Am I paranoid?

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2016- ... -at-no-32/

original poster · Aug 2, 2016

A lot of it comes down to being in the NFC West.

Jerhawk · Aug 2, 2016

Strength of schedule is misleading imo. Teams vary so much from one year to the next it's more of an indicator of how the team was last year, not taking into account what they'll do this year.

McGruff · Aug 2, 2016

original poster":33r50c74 said:
A lot of it comes down to being in the NFC West.

Between that and having made the playoffs so our 2 extra games are likely playoff teams as well.

McGruff · Aug 2, 2016

McGruff":6xhv3o4l said:
original poster":6xhv3o4l said:

A lot of it comes down to being in the NFC West.

Click to expand...

Between that and having made the playoffs so our 2 extra games are likely playoff teams as well.

Of the 7 hardest schedules, the NFC west comprises 4 of them. And that's not even considering that the Rams are tougher than their record.

Crizilla · Aug 2, 2016

>NFC West
>Always play GB
>Always play Carolina

edit: Don't tell us what to do

Yes rough night. I blame Steve Chisek.

Largent80 · Aug 2, 2016

This always changes during the long season from injuries etc.

RichNhansom · Aug 2, 2016

Strength of schedule is almost meaningless to me. I wish they had a way to calculate out the difficulty of playing 5 10am east coast games with some back to back (including playoffs). Thursday night away games and extra time for opponents to prepare for you.

The last few years we have ran an absolute gauntlet having all those situations named above happen to us and in the same season. This year we play some competitive teams but we aren't playing 5 10am east coast games. We only have two and they are not back to back. We actually get a home Thursday night game and only one team has more than a week to prepare for us. Granted its the Patriots in Gillette stadium but it is an evening game and at least that favors us.

I think the only real bad part of our schedule is our biggest threat for the NFC west is the Cardinals and they're schedule layout is even easier than ours not to mention they will start the season at home against the Bradyless Pats. I believe We need to sweep Az this year to have a legitimate shot at winning the division. Not to mention getting off to a good start.

If we don't win the division and end up the wild card I'm going to go ballistic if we have to play 2 10AM games in the playoffs again.

Has any west coast team ever had to play 2 10am games in the plkayoffs? In fact has any west coast team ever won a 10am playoff game before last year? I don't believe it has happened and I know the dynasty 49ers lost every one they played in.

kearly · Aug 2, 2016

RichNhansom":3o10cypp said:
Strength of schedule is almost meaningless to me. I wish they had a way to calculate out the difficulty of playing 5 10am east coast games with some back to back (including playoffs). Thursday night away games and extra time for opponents to prepare for you.

Exactly. Would you rather play the Patriots or the Dolphins? The Dolphins are the natural choice. Now ask if you would rather play the Patriots at night at Century Link or the Dolphins on the road at 10am with a humid 100 degree forecast? The Patriots are the natural choice.

It feels like the Seahawks 2016 schedule is loaded with favorable situations, both home and road games, and has very few nightmare scenarios. Where in a typical schedule, we have a bunch of 10am starts against dangerous teams or games in inclement weather conditions, this year that list of adversarial matchups is far smaller.

sutz · Aug 2, 2016

kearly":3fe7ptdj said:
It feels like the Seahawks 2016 schedule is loaded with favorable situations, both home and road games, and has very few nightmare scenarios. Where in a typical schedule, we have a bunch of 10am starts against dangerous teams or games in inclement weather conditions, this year that list of adversarial matchups is far smaller.

Essentially, 2015 was about as "worst case" as we could have asked for. being front loaded with road games against playoff teams. Back end was more friendly at 5-3 home/road, but by then the damage was done.

Trenchbroom · Aug 2, 2016

RichNhansom":3nih8v0e said:
Strength of schedule is almost meaningless to me. I wish they had a way to calculate out the difficulty of playing 5 10am east coast games with some back to back (including playoffs). Thursday night away games and extra time for opponents to prepare for you.

The last few years we have ran an absolute gauntlet having all those situations named above happen to us and in the same season. This year we play some competitive teams but we aren't playing 5 10am east coast games. We only have two and they are not back to back. We actually get a home Thursday night game and only one team has more than a week to prepare for us. Granted its the Patriots in Gillette stadium but it is an evening game and at least that favors us.

I think the only real bad part of our schedule is our biggest threat for the NFC west is the Cardinals and they're schedule layout is even easier than ours not to mention they will start the season at home against the Bradyless Pats. I believe We need to sweep Az this year to have a legitimate shot at winning the division. Not to mention getting off to a good start.

If we don't win the division and end up the wild card I'm going to go ballistic if we have to play 2 10AM games in the playoffs again.

Has any west coast team ever had to play 2 10am games in the plkayoffs? In fact has any west coast team ever won a 10am playoff game before last year? I don't believe it has happened and I know the dynasty 49ers lost every one they played in.

Just wait until they start making the Hawks play in London. Or Beijing. :|

ivotuk · Aug 2, 2016

sutz":8n4eqc44 said:
kearly":8n4eqc44 said:

It feels like the Seahawks 2016 schedule is loaded with favorable situations, both home and road games, and has very few nightmare scenarios. Where in a typical schedule, we have a bunch of 10am starts against dangerous teams or games in inclement weather conditions, this year that list of adversarial matchups is far smaller.

Click to expand...

Essentially, 2015 was about as "worst case" as we could have asked for. being front loaded with road games against playoff teams. Back end was more friendly at 5-3 home/road, but by then the damage was done.

This is what really pisses me off, and I swear the referees do the same thing when we play against "Legacy Teams" like Pittsburgh (except when they play in Seattle and that's only out of fear).

They start off early, making ticky tack calls against Seattle, giving the Legacy Team a head start, then they have "make up calls" once the Seahawks are down. Unfortunately for them, it doesn't matter to this Seahawks team, because they will come back against anybody, and against any deficit.

From that article:

"Before the 2015 season started, the Panthers were set to play the sixth-easiest schedule. After all the games were played, the Panthers ended up playing the easiest schedule in the NFL, which they rode to a 15-1 record and an NFC title."

lobohawk · Aug 2, 2016

Could have sworn I saw something abut the Hawks having a strength of schedule in the high 20s. Much lower than previous years. Can't remember where I saw it, but thought it was based on some Vegas evaluation.

bigskydoc · Aug 2, 2016

lobohawk":2se4cf8d said:
Could have sworn I saw something abut the Hawks having a strength of schedule in the high 20s. Much lower than previous years. Can't remember where I saw it, but thought it was based on some Vegas evaluation.

Updated NFL Schedule Strength

29th hardest as of July 14, 2016, previously 21st.

IndyHawk · Aug 2, 2016

Crizilla":3lca6n3j said:
>NFC West
>Always play GB
>Always play Carolina

edit: Don't tell us what to do

Yes rough night. I blame Steve Chisek.

Yeah he's a legend already..I got to take a Chisek :lol:

RichNhansom · Aug 2, 2016

Trenchbroom":26y1newk said:
RichNhansom":26y1newk said:

Strength of schedule is almost meaningless to me. I wish they had a way to calculate out the difficulty of playing 5 10am east coast games with some back to back (including playoffs). Thursday night away games and extra time for opponents to prepare for you.

The last few years we have ran an absolute gauntlet having all those situations named above happen to us and in the same season. This year we play some competitive teams but we aren't playing 5 10am east coast games. We only have two and they are not back to back. We actually get a home Thursday night game and only one team has more than a week to prepare for us. Granted its the Patriots in Gillette stadium but it is an evening game and at least that favors us.

I think the only real bad part of our schedule is our biggest threat for the NFC west is the Cardinals and they're schedule layout is even easier than ours not to mention they will start the season at home against the Bradyless Pats. I believe We need to sweep Az this year to have a legitimate shot at winning the division. Not to mention getting off to a good start.

If we don't win the division and end up the wild card I'm going to go ballistic if we have to play 2 10AM games in the playoffs again.

Has any west coast team ever had to play 2 10am games in the plkayoffs? In fact has any west coast team ever won a 10am playoff game before last year? I don't believe it has happened and I know the dynasty 49ers lost every one they played in.

Click to expand...

Just wait until they start making the Hawks play in London. Or Beijing. :|

Actually that's going to be long travel for both teams. It will likely effect both pretty equally. The problem could come in the form of the following week if we were to then play a playoff caliber team on the east coast at 10am but I doubt that would happen. Of course I never thought they would actually schedule back to back 10am playoff starts for a west coast team either.

RichNhansom · Aug 2, 2016

sutz":gglsyw0o said:
kearly":gglsyw0o said:

It feels like the Seahawks 2016 schedule is loaded with favorable situations, both home and road games, and has very few nightmare scenarios. Where in a typical schedule, we have a bunch of 10am starts against dangerous teams or games in inclement weather conditions, this year that list of adversarial matchups is far smaller.

Click to expand...

Essentially, 2015 was about as "worst case" as we could have asked for. being front loaded with road games against playoff teams. Back end was more friendly at 5-3 home/road, but by then the damage was done.

Agree about 15. How many teams had extra time to prepare to play us, coming off bye weeks and such. How many 10am east coast starts, back to back 10am games, away TNF, back to back 10am playoff games on and on.

I do believe this is where being the #1 team DVOA has hurt us that last few years. The NFL wants games competitive and parity to rule all.

I know the conversation has been had over and over and some don't believe there is any way the NFL would care about Seattle or even be able to manipulate the schedule but if you look at how our schedule has broke down the last few years and consider the most important things for selling TV rights is parity and competition and you are scheduling the #1 DVOA team, it makes sense to try and make them play uphill a little to slow them down and make games more competitive.

How many home prime time games have we had the last few years? How was the officiating against AZ last year when we finally did get a home prime time game?

The schedule this year looks to me like the NFL is starting to see us as a legacy team as well as seeing how marketable Wilson is. If we start getting schedules like these and don't have to play games like the AZ game last year, I like our chances of bringing home more trophies and possibly much more.

kearly · Aug 2, 2016

bigskydoc":2t8zece1 said:
lobohawk":2t8zece1 said:

Could have sworn I saw something abut the Hawks having a strength of schedule in the high 20s. Much lower than previous years. Can't remember where I saw it, but thought it was based on some Vegas evaluation.

Click to expand...

Updated NFL Schedule Strength

29th hardest as of July 14, 2016, previously 21st.

That's a non-official list made by a statistician. So you can't really say Seattle is 29th in SoS without immediately adding "according to some guy on the internet."

Ribbing aside, Warren Sharp's method is certainly less flawed than the 2015 records method. The traditional "previous season's record" method has Seattle ranked 6th toughest, which feels too high to me. But Warren's method feels way too low for Seattle. I don't know how any team could be 29th playing in the NFC West with Green Bay, New England, and Carolina on the out of conference docket. They play five games against arguably the five best non-Seahawks teams in the NFL.

I say "less flawed" because there are obvious issues with going by Vegas lines- it essentially punishes a team for being good. Seattle and Carolina are really good teams who are going to be favored almost every week. Such a formula might score Seattle vs. New England the same way it would score SF vs. Atlanta since the lines would be about the same. It's still smarter than the old method, but it can lead to some results that don't quite add up.

RiverDog · Aug 3, 2016

Jerhawk":2vgysfp3 said:
Strength of schedule is misleading imo. Teams vary so much from one year to the next it's more of an indicator of how the team was last year, not taking into account what they'll do this year.

This.

Take a look at last season: Last year's defending NFC division champs were the Cards, Vikings, Redskins, and Panthers. Only the Panthers were repeat champs from the previous season. You have teams like the Cowboys that went from 12-4 in 2014 to 4-12 in 2015.

Over in the AFC, half of the division champs were not repeat champs from the previous season. With that kind of variation, using the previous season's standings and/or records to project the current year's results is pretty dicey. I wouldn't want to bet a whole lot of money on it.

NFL Strength of Schedule

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