Tracking NFL Draft Efficiency: Success To Draft Position

dogorama

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Following up on my last two posts re: the danger of trading first round picks, and how to determine if a first round pick will be successful, I found this article. "Tracking NFL Draft Efficiency: How Contingent Is Success To Draft Position?"

The first finding shows that 1st rounders are, not surprisingly, much more likely to become starters at nearly 30% w/a drop off to 17.5% for 2nd rounders. They are also much more likely to have started the most amount of games compared to 2nd rounders 67.5% to 33.8% (since 2010). 1st rounders also were much more likely to be all-pros registering 48.5% to only 14% for 2nd rounders. For the full article: http://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015 ... 01257828ea
 
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dogorama

dogorama

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Then, there is this analytic that reveals draft success by position: http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20 ... t-by-round

"Notables from the numbers

If you want a safe first round pick, OL (83%), LB (70%) and TE (67%) have the lowest "bust" rates.
TEs have a pretty reasonable chance of turning out in most rounds.
You are just as likely to have the same amount of success selecting a WR in the first or second round.
QBs seem to be first round or bust.
O-line in the first four rounds is a pretty safe bet.
Never take a TE, RB or QB in the 7th round if you hold out any hope of them being a starter.
Taking a defensive lineman in the 4th round has a higher success probability than a 2nd or 3rd round pick.
RBs are a dime a dozen and so you might as well have a committee."
 

Jville

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An off season topic for the "Draft Forum"?

However, I remember a time in the league when all but two former third round starters were either first or second round starting corner backs. That statistical outcome was the product of a NFL herd mentality of the time. A mentality challenged by those who broke out of that box and left such herd mentality behind ..... in their wake.
 

seabowl

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I actually brought the topic up years ago on this board about wanting to use 1st round picks on OL. Wish we would have done that more the last few years.
 

LudwigsDrummer

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seabowl":3fd1291y said:
I actually brought the topic up years ago on this board about wanting to use 1st round picks on OL. Wish we would have done that more the last few years.
Pete and John have now had 6 NFL drafts. They have taken 3 OL men (Okung, Carp, Ifedi) in those drafts.
The team did not have a 1st round selection in `13,`14, & `15.
I looks to me like they have invested resources in that area. None of them were a NFL "bust".
 
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dogorama

dogorama

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Jville":33km7h9t said:
An off season topic for the "Draft Forum"?

However, I remember a time in the league when all but two former third round starters were either first or second round starting corner backs. That statistical outcome was the product of a NFL herd mentality of the time. A mentality challenged by those who broke out of that box and left such herd mentality behind ..... in their wake.

I thought it might be a good topic as this part of the season is the subsequent evaluation part of your draft.

There does seem to be a certain amount of so-called herd mentality in the league. We have seen that w/a swing to offenses that sacrificed defense and then back again when the Seahawks dominated the historical best offense in 48. Anyone who would depend solely on historical data to make a pick would be a fool, but on the other hand, anyone who would completely ignore historical data would not be smart. It is just another tool among many.
 
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dogorama

dogorama

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LudwigsDrummer":2w2dphr8 said:
seabowl":2w2dphr8 said:
I actually brought the topic up years ago on this board about wanting to use 1st round picks on OL. Wish we would have done that more the last few years.
Pete and John have now had 6 NFL drafts. They have taken 3 OL men (Okung, Carp, Ifedi) in those drafts.
The team did not have a 1st round selection in `13,`14, & `15.
I looks to me like they have invested resources in that area. None of them were a NFL "bust".

P and J have invested limited resources in offensive linemen. Once those OL rookies contracts were up they refused to spend the money required to retain them. It is pretty obvious that they want to spend their money elsewhere but when we won the Super Bowl it was often commented that we were a very balanced team. In fact, I think most teams that win SB's are very balanced teams. It remains to be seen whether we can pull it off w/this current philosophy.
 

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