Random musings

So it seems the offense is now equal to or has surpassed the defense in terms or overall talent. I have been wondering why this is. The defense is still good but as has been noted, it's not as deep. I went back and looked at all of the draft picks the last few years and it's obvious why.

Schneider has invested a ton of draft capital in the offense since the 2013 draft. (Why? Maybe a certain rookie QB star) In that time frame they have used roughly 2/3 of their draft picks on offense. When you look at the young talent on this team it makes sense. From those drafts there are only a few defensive impact players. Clark and Shead are the only 2 from those drafts who look to have much of an impact (excluding current rookies like Reed who haven't seen any real action).

Now compare that to the offense. You will see multiple players who are going to play a solid role in the offense. Glowinski, Britt, Michael, Lockett, Richardson and Willson all look to be regular players (could also include Rawls and Gilliam as UDFA). On top of that throw in the 1st rd picks for Harvin and Graham, and it is easy to see how they have heavily favored the offensive side of the ball from a talent development standpoint.

In addition, almost every year there have been multiple players from the defensive side who have not been resigned. The offense has seen some FA from the OL mostly and a bit of talent has also retired. It just seems like every year we lose an Irvin, Mebane, Maxwell, Clemons, etc.

I think this is a big reason why the offense is set to overtake the defense as the premier unit.

It's easier to find an opportunity to start when there is not a Pro Bowl talent ahead of you. I think there is some impressive depth developing across the roster. But the defense still looks way ahead of the offense in terms of raw talent on paper. Thomas, Sherman, Bennett, Wright, Wagner, and Chancellor are all Pro Bowl-level talents. Lane, Avril, and others are due for breakout seasons. In the last two draft classes, they have used their 2nd round picks to improve depth along the defensive line with Clark and Reed. The depth in the secondary looks as absurd as it has ever been; some have the Seahawks keeping 10 secondary players on the 53-man roster.

The least talented position group remains the offensive line. The Seahawks are last in the league in offensive line spending by a significant margin. They are spending less than half the league average. The average offensive lineman in the league, pre-roster cuts, makes $2 million, while the average Seahawk offensive linemen makes just $940k. We are the outlier this season.

The good news is the offensive line has looked strong in run blocking and improved in pass protection. And they appear to be developing better depth than they have had in years with Odhiambo, Poole, Hunt, Lewis, Evans, Webb, etc. Blowing up an underperforming offensive line, rather than spending millions on re-signing Okung, Sweezy, and Bailey, has actually led to more cohesive play. Britt's development at center has been a big part of that improvemet. Sowell's sudden rise in the preseason has also added to depth. Ifedi, Glowinski, and Britt are now looking like solid draft picks from the last three draft classes, solidifying the middle of the offensive line. So I am hopeful that this motley crew will continue to improve.

EverydayImRusselin":2pqk24od said:

So it seems the offense is now equal to or has surpassed the defense in terms or overall talent. I have been wondering why this is. The defense is still good but as has been noted, it's not as deep. I went back and looked at all of the draft picks the last few years and it's obvious why.

Schneider has invested a ton of draft capital in the offense since the 2013 draft. (Why? Maybe a certain rookie QB star) In that time frame they have used roughly 2/3 of their draft picks on offense. When you look at the young talent on this team it makes sense. From those drafts there are only a few defensive impact players. Clark and Shead are the only 2 from those drafts who look to have much of an impact (excluding current rookies like Reed who haven't seen any real action).

Now compare that to the offense. You will see multiple players who are going to play a solid role in the offense. Glowinski, Britt, Michael, Lockett, Richardson and Willson all look to be regular players (could also include Rawls and Gilliam as UDFA). On top of that throw in the 1st rd picks for Harvin and Graham, and it is easy to see how they have heavily favored the offensive side of the ball from a talent development standpoint.

In addition, almost every year there have been multiple players from the defensive side who have not been resigned. The offense has seen some FA from the OL mostly and a bit of talent has also retired. It just seems like every year we lose an Irvin, Mebane, Maxwell, Clemons, etc.

I think this is a big reason why the offense is set to overtake the defense as the premier unit.

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With Bevell directing PC's philosophy on offense? I have always felt that the offense was being held back, last year we took too long to adjust and open up the offense. Even before that, we would sit on leads and watched as teams would come back while we would go three and out.

It is going to have to take a change in philosophy, not just better players. PC is going to have to arrive at a conclusion that the risk is worth the reward and part of that decision will probably come down to how good the defense is this year. In our best years we were able get away w/a conservative offense w/a dominating defense. The first half of last year showed that we could no longer count on that, BUT as the offensive output improved so did the defense improve because they weren't constantly running back on the field after yet another offensive flame-out.

FWIW, I don't think the offense is on the same planet as the defense in terms of overall talent. I think the defense has 6 players more talented than the offense's second.

I would be interested into what the staff and those that are following college talent right now think about next years draft talent, we have trended towards balancing both sides of the ball with our investments in the draft, first came the defense and a windfall of talent, offense has been somewhat slower to assemble. I think the swing goes back to defense again if the speed and physical ability is there again to start the youth movement again.

That's not to say we ignore offense but maintaining balance and the friendly salary arrangement we need to keep contending.

chris98251":3lnt25u3 said:

I would be interested into what the staff and those that are following college talent right now think about next years draft talent, we have trended towards balancing both sides of the ball with our investments in the draft, first came the defense and a windfall of talent, offense has been somewhat slower to assemble. I think the swing goes back to defense again if the speed and physical ability is there again to start the youth movement again.

That's not to say we ignore offense but maintaining balance and the friendly salary arrangement we need to keep contending.

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There has to be a timeline where you restock not just by talent evaluation and need, but maybe even more importantly, by salary cap availability. This year would seem to be a good place to start as you have the new player's rookie salaries until our core player's contracts and relative worth expires. What I wouldn't give for a interior rush lineman right now.

Basically, the more you draft an area, the cheaper it is against the cap. Seattle last year had a top 5 offense that was one of the five cheapest in the NFL. They chose this route because they really really really wanted to pay their defensive guys, pretty much all of them, to keep the band together on that side of the ball. And that means drafting a lot of offense so that it stays cheap (particularly the OL).

kearly":3dh2s54b said:

Basically, the more you draft an area, the cheaper it is against the cap. Seattle last year had a top 5 offense that was one of the five cheapest in the NFL. They chose this route because they really really really wanted to pay their defensive guys, pretty much all of them, to keep the band together on that side of the ball. And that means drafting a lot of offense so that it stays cheap (particularly the OL).

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That's basically what I am saying except I am not sure that necessarily means the defense, it just so happened that is where our best core players showed up. We are not going to not keep offensive linemen if they are really special. The reason we didn't keep Okung is only partly because of the cap, the other part was that he wasn't determined to be worth the money to make him a core player.

What I am really saying is that you have to have a certain strategy regarding the timing of all this. We aren't going to sign core players to big extensions once they are past their prime and that opens up cap. If you have really good rookies at the end of their rookie contracts it would be good to have these events coincide. I realize that there is only a certain amount of definite planning you can do but I am sure the FO has some sort of strategy for this. It's just basic sustainability planning albeit w/very unknown and constantly changing resources. Pretty complicated when you think about it, but that's the reality of the salary cap conundrum.

Tical21":1irecofy said:

FWIW, I don't think the offense is on the same planet as the defense in terms of overall talent. I think the defense has 6 players more talented than the offense's second.

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Agreed

Thomas
Sherman
Wilson
Bennett
Chancellor
Wagner
Wright
Baldwin
Avril
Lockett
Rawls
Reed

That's my top 12, and it's pretty heavy on dfense.

McGruff":3s1omqqh said:

Tical21":3s1omqqh said:

FWIW, I don't think the offense is on the same planet as the defense in terms of overall talent. I think the defense has 6 players more talented than the offense's second.

Click to expand...

Agreed

Thomas
Sherman
Wilson
Bennett
Chancellor
Wagner
Wright
Baldwin
Avril
Lockett
Rawls
Reed

That's my top 12, and it's pretty heavy on dfense.

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I had to look up who Reed was. Duh....but that also means, to me, he doesn't yet belong on that list, as he's done nothing to deserve that ranking. Even Rawls is fringe based on a smaller sample size.

McGruff":3qrh215i said:

Tical21":3qrh215i said:

FWIW, I don't think the offense is on the same planet as the defense in terms of overall talent. I think the defense has 6 players more talented than the offense's second.

Click to expand...

Agreed

Thomas
Sherman
Wilson
Bennett
Chancellor
Wagner
Wright
Baldwin
Avril
Lockett
Rawls
Reed

That's my top 12, and it's pretty heavy on dfense.

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Interesting that you don't have Graham on the list.

Yeah not to poop on your point, but the offense isn't even close to the defense right now for overall talent. WAY too many question marks, especially across the line, TE position and RB.

Russell's new contract has obviously brought the number closer, but the majority of our cap is still on the defensive side of the ball, even more now that Lynch is gone.

Write this post again in two years, and hopefully you're right............the offense will have caught up. But now? Nope, not even close.

kearly":2ocllrzs said:

Basically, the more you draft an area, the cheaper it is against the cap. Seattle last year had a top 5 offense that was one of the five cheapest in the NFL. They chose this route because they really really really wanted to pay their defensive guys, pretty much all of them, to keep the band together on that side of the ball. And that means drafting a lot of offense so that it stays cheap (particularly the OL).

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So with that logic, and it's a good one, would you suggest taking our highest contributors to the cap and drafting at their position? Assuming those highest would be core players. Wilson, Sherman, Thomas, Graham, Baldwin, Bennett, Avril, Wright in order from overthecap.com

CHawkTailGator":33pg2v87 said:

kearly":33pg2v87 said:

Basically, the more you draft an area, the cheaper it is against the cap. Seattle last year had a top 5 offense that was one of the five cheapest in the NFL. They chose this route because they really really really wanted to pay their defensive guys, pretty much all of them, to keep the band together on that side of the ball. And that means drafting a lot of offense so that it stays cheap (particularly the OL).

Click to expand...

So with that logic, and it's a good one, would you suggest taking our highest contributors to the cap and drafting at their position? Assuming those highest would be core players. Wilson, Sherman, Thomas, Graham, Baldwin, Bennett, Avril, Wright in order from overthecap.com

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I don't want to speak for him but I think what he was saying is just that rookie salaries are fixed and low and thus cheaper against the cap. What you are suggesting would be very dangerous, I mean what are the chances you can replace those players, especially at the draft position we got most of them. It is a very difficult proposition to schedule because you never know what's going to be available. You want to have a strategy, but it is pretty much on the fly.

HN2016 hit it on the head.

They drafted so well on the defensive side of the ball, that it became proportionately harder to draft starters there. At that point, you want to pay those core guys (like Kearly mentioned) but at the same time, you're not throwing high draft capital at positions where you expect players to be depth. So naturally, you draft for the other areas where you're weak.

The pendulum will swing, because as Irvin said...you can't pay everybody.

I guess I'm a lot higher on the offense this year than some of you. I think the passing game can pick up where it left off last year. Maybe not 24 TD to 1 INT but still very efficient. The biggest thing for me this year is the running game. I think the running game is going to HAMMER teams. I may be a full on homer, but watching the OL run block this preseason has been awesome. I think Michael makes one of the best #2 backs in the league. If Rawls isn't hampered by his ankle injury, I think he picks right up where he left off. Last year he exhibited incredible vision and burst through the gaps the OL gave him. This year it seems those gaps will be canyons.

As far as comparing individual talent, the offense isn't where the defense is. However, as a group I wouldn't be surprised if this isn't a sum is greater than the parts situation.

EverydayImRusselin":1irxii29 said:

You will see multiple players who are going to play a solid role in the offense. Glowinski, Britt, Michael, Lockett, Richardson and Willson all look to be regular players (could also include Rawls and Gilliam as UDFA).

...

I think this is a big reason why the offense is set to overtake the defense as the premier unit.

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Glowinski, Britt, Michael and Richardson have proven NOTHING in the regular season. Crowning them as a unit outperforming the Defense is just absurd.

I hope you're right, but wait to see what they do in an actual regular season game.

xgeoff":3drjmc1p said:

EverydayImRusselin":3drjmc1p said:

You will see multiple players who are going to play a solid role in the offense. Glowinski, Britt, Michael, Lockett, Richardson and Willson all look to be regular players (could also include Rawls and Gilliam as UDFA).

...

I think this is a big reason why the offense is set to overtake the defense as the premier unit.

Click to expand...

Glowinski, Britt, Michael and Richardson have proven NOTHING in the regular season. Crowning them as a unit outperforming the Defense is just absurd.

I hope you're right, but wait to see what they do in an actual regular season game.

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LOL! Yes, the offense is the champion of training camp. Is there a trophy for that? :stirthepot:

I do think the offense is going to be close to the defense regardless of how you rank the players. I think Wilson and Sherman are the top to talents on the team but because of the position Wilson plays he elevates the offense to a much greater degree. From a pure talent perspective Lockett is ahead of possibly everyone other than Sherman, Thomas and possibly Bennett on the defense. He has to go out and continue to prove it but he's going to. It's subjective of course but what a fun time to be a fan that we can even debate this topic. Imagine being the Browns or the Niners and having this debate.