FO favors Hawks to win west, but we're 1.5 underdogs in ARI

http://www.espn.com/blog/seattle-seahaw ... n-nfc-west

Slightly worrisome stat - defenses we've played and beaten so far in DVOA:

MIA (17th, 12 pts scored)
LAR (14th, 3 pts scored)
SF (20th, 37 pts scored)
NYJ (30th, 27 pts scored)
ATL (26th, 26 pts scored)

ARI is ranked 3rd. By far the best defense we've faced. This will be the stiffest test yet for our poorly-ranked run game and slowed QB. Good news is, their offense is ranked worse than ours, and our defense is, once again, #1 DVOA.

Low-scoring, hair-dragging contest coming up.

Flame away.

Its a divisional game so you can throw stats away. Also Arizona's 3 wins this season have been against teams that are 1-5.

In my opinion Arizona is similar to Atlanta minus having their own Julio Jones. Our running game has not been producing at its past levels but has still been productive. We have a big advantage now that Jimmy Graham is healthy. The Cardinals will have no answer for him.

Normally a home team has 3 point advantage and the spread is only 1.5 which indicates Vegas is actually hedging bets towards the Hawks.

BTW AZ has Fitz who has always been a coverage nightmare for the Seahawks.

I'm hopeful we see Palmer and 'rub him hard some'.

I don't think that's an unfair line considering it is in Arizona, even though the Hawks usually win down there.
Past results have little bearing on the future, outside of the confidence factor.

jammerhawk":3f0iph5p said:

Normally a home team has 3 point advantage and the spread is only 1.5 which indicates Vegas is actually hedging bets towards the Hawks.

BTW AZ has Fitz who has always been a coverage nightmare for the Seahawks.

I'm hopeful we see Palmer and 'rub him hard some'.

Click to expand...

Since when? most of his worst games have come aginst the Seahawks. Even when the Seahawks sucked he was not the problem. You know who killed the Seahawks Bryant Johnson for some damn reason. He would have one or two TDs a season and they would be aginst the Seahawks.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/5528

We'll beat Arizona. It won't even be close.

The Seahawks haven't lost in AZ since Russ's first game, and Palmer has a hamstring injury

Average score in AZ since Arians took over: Hawks 35, Cards 11.

I haven't watched Arizona at all but if they are good at putting pressure on the qb then I will be concerned about their defense. Otherwise I don't care about the stats RW can pick them apart

Last year the Cardinals beat down the Packers 38-8 at home, then played the Seahawks next and lost 36-6 at home

Sounds like history will repeat itself

This year they beat the Jets 28-3 at home, and will play Seahawks at their home again.

I expect we'll see a pretty pissed off Seattle D after the last weeks worth of talk, coverage, etc. I do not envy Palmer this week.

This seems like a very winnable match-up. The AZ passing game has been Fitz-heavy, with a sprinkling of John Brown and touch of Michael Floyd here and there. Floyd really looks like he's been struggling and I'm not sure, but Brown has been inconsistent. Not sure what's up with Palmer. Their OL hasn't been great in pass protection and he seems to rattle more easily this season. With Shead's improvements and hopefully a healthy Kam, I think we match up with their passing game very well.

Ooh their run game, er, I mean David Johnson. Best RB in the league. I know many will disagree, but the dude is a straight up baller and they haven't even been using him close to optimally in the passing game. The Hawks run D is great and shut him down Week 17 last year. This year, though, the Cards are playing for their season and their offense runs through him. Great match-up.

Bit worried about our offense vs. their defense. In Russ we trust, but Mathieu is returning to form, Pat Pete has been shutdown this year, and their safety Tony Jefferson has been really good. Not to mention, their pass rush is much improved. Golden and Chandler Jones are balling and Calais seems to go off against the Seahawks, although I believe that's usually at the Clink. The cards run defense is suspect and CMike got em for 102 last time he faced them so hopefully he can repeat that and Russ can roast em through the air. Their CB2 has been inconsistent so maybe Lockett or PRich can catch a deep pass or two.

Divisional games are always tough. I was even slightly nervous for the 49ers this year as they seemed to be performing better than shit.

This game has the same feel as the first game against AZ last year but now the roles are reversed. Now we're the team on a role and Arizona the team just getting back to form. It wouldn't surprise me if the Cards go on a huge streak after this game so we definitely shouldn't put them only one loss away with a head to head victory over us, that's dangerous.

Hawks probably win but most likely by one score at most.

mikeak":dt90mwry said:

I haven't watched Arizona at all but if they are good at putting pressure on the qb then I will be concerned about their defense. Otherwise I don't care about the stats RW can pick them apart

Click to expand...

Thing is, what's actually gotten to Russ this year hasn't been the pressure but the opposing secondaries. Those world-beating DLs I listed in the OP? They've translated to some very poor defenses, and the reason is largely the poor efforts of their defensive backs. The Jets group in particular were just hideous. The Rams, on the other hand, overperformed against our receivers in Week 2, and that, combined with the pressure on the QB, is a big reason they won. A complete defense can beat Russ, because he's lacking mobility.

Arizona is closer to being STL than they are to being NYJ.

Polk738":3ly2kynk said:

The Seahawks haven't lost in AZ since Russ's first game, and Palmer has a hamstring injury

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Whoah, so he won't be mobile ? :mrgreen:

We match up well against AZ. We play them very well down there.

I honestly think we run well against them. Our run D is elite this year, meaning we limit their RB, who is half their offense this year.

Willson usually tears up their LBers. Think about what Graham is going to do.

Kearse, Richardson or McEvoy is going to tear up their #2 CB.

Our pass rush is much better this year. AZ's OL is having protection issues and Palmer already has the yips. He's going to be tossing a few up.

When Sherman follows Fitzgerald, he shuts him down. So far this year, if they're not running the ball, Palmer is getting the ball to Fitz quickly and if he has time he'll heave it deep to their speedsters. Take away Fitz, and he won't have time.

Barring injuries and Bennett not being 100%, I'm not too worried about this game.

MontanaHawk05":3zntmrem said:

mikeak":3zntmrem said:

I haven't watched Arizona at all but if they are good at putting pressure on the qb then I will be concerned about their defense. Otherwise I don't care about the stats RW can pick them apart

Click to expand...

Thing is, what's actually gotten to Russ this year hasn't been the pressure but the opposing secondaries. Those world-beating DLs I listed in the OP? They've translated to some very poor defenses, and the reason is largely the poor efforts of their defensive backs. The Jets group in particular were just hideous. The Rams, on the other hand, overperformed against our receivers in Week 2, and that, combined with the pressure on the QB, is a big reason they won. A complete defense can beat Russ, because he's lacking mobility.

Arizona is closer to being STL than they are to being NYJ.

Click to expand...

Who is STL??? :stirthepot:

MontanaHawk05":2zoedtcy said:

mikeak":2zoedtcy said:

I haven't watched Arizona at all but if they are good at putting pressure on the qb then I will be concerned about their defense. Otherwise I don't care about the stats RW can pick them apart

Click to expand...

Thing is, what's actually gotten to Russ this year hasn't been the pressure but the opposing secondaries. Those world-beating DLs I listed in the OP? They've translated to some very poor defenses, and the reason is largely the poor efforts of their defensive backs. The Jets group in particular were just hideous. The Rams, on the other hand, overperformed against our receivers in Week 2, and that, combined with the pressure on the QB, is a big reason they won. A complete defense can beat Russ, because he's lacking mobility.

Arizona is closer to being STL than they are to being NYJ.

Click to expand...

The only thing getting to Russ is his injuries. He's actually played very well considering his injuries, the loss of Ifedi etc. He is still very efficient from the pocket and I expect a big game from him Sunday night.

Interesting graphs here, suggesting advantage to Hawks Defense, and to Cards Defense
http://www.hawkblogger.com/2016/10/tale ... -best.html