A Glimmer of Offensive Light

Looking at the defensive DVOA for our likely playoff opponents, it is clear that throwing to our TEs and RBs should be a significant part of our game plan for the entirety of the post season. DVOA Rankings v. TEs are as follows, Detroit 29th, Atlanta 15th and Dallas 30th. Against RBs in the passing game the DVOAs are Detroit 29th, Atlanta 27th and Dallas 20th. Detroit and Atlanta are also terrible against slot WRs ranked 32nd and 29th. Actually, Detroit has the worst passing defense in the league and it's really not even close. There is no excuse to not move the ball at will against them.

As far as defense v. the running game, Detroit is 22nd, Atlanta 28th and Dallas 8th. More importantly for us though is who gets the majority of the carries. Thomas Rawls has been stuffed on 14.7% of his carries this year as opposed to Prosise and Collins at 6.7% and 6.5%. Same o-line, but much different results. Those stuffs have been drive killers for this offense. For comparison, last year Marshawn was getting stuffed at a 17% rate because he was simply not right and it showed as the offense was frustratingly inconsistent. Enter Rawls who took over and was stuffed on only 6.1% of his carries and the offense looked downright epic. Right now it appears that Rawls is just not completely healthy and it is limiting his ability to get through initial contact and the offense is once again very frustrating to watch. Perhaps we see Collins as the starter against Detroit and at some point during the post season we get CJ Prosise back. Maybe, just maybe, it will only take a moderate improvement in the running game to spark this offense.

Rawls appears to be a hinderance at this point, so hopefully we see more Alex Collins in the run game and more Marcel Reece in the passing game. But without a doubt we should see a lot more Jimmy and Luke, and maybe an occassional target to Nick Vannett or Brandon Williams as well. If Prosise is able to practice the next two weeks and be ready for Atlanta that would be a huge boost for the offense.

Go Hawks!

DVOA
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef
Stuff
https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stat ... tage/2016/

Prosise might be ready for the SB if the Hawks make it. Anything else is a pie-in-the-sky expectation.

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Looking at the defensive DVOA for our likely playoff opponents, it is clear that throwing to our TEs and RBs should be a significant part of our game plan for the entirety of the post season.

Click to expand...

Pete did seem to incorporate more of this against the 49ers than he did in the prior three games.

...with the caveat that what we see happen (e.g. Graham not getting targeted) is not always what Pete intends, but rather a result of the game situation and Wilson's decision-making. Seattle could deploy a playbook with "DON'T TARGET ANYONE BUT JIMMY GRAHAM" scrawled on the front cover, but if the opposing team triple-teams Jimmy all day and Wilson doesn't throw to him, Seahawks.NET will still be convinced that Pete forgot Jimmy exists.

Thanks for the stats, SoCal. Encouraging!

I'm not usually very vocal about my criticism of Bevell, but it seems to me that he doesn't attack an opposing defense's weaknesses...like, ever. If they are bad at covering TEs and RBs in the passing game, we'll just continue to run the ball right at them and throw to our wide receivers.

Crap. Runs up the middle and slow developing WR routes are on tap. :sarcasm_on: We should stick to deep routes since these only require about 5 seconds of pass pro. :sarcasm_off:
:34853_doh:

Erebus":2ercprff said:

I'm not usually very vocal about my criticism of Bevell, but it seems to me that he doesn't attack an opposing defense's weaknesses...like, ever. If they are bad at covering TEs and RBs in the passing game, we'll just continue to run the ball right at them and throw to our wide receivers.

Click to expand...

This is my fear exactly.

If the facts are that clear, we'll learn a lot about Bevell this weekend. If he doesn't attack those weaknesses, he will cement his legacy here (and rightfully so) as stubborn and clueless.

WindCityHawk":23vieyxf said:

Erebus":23vieyxf said:

I'm not usually very vocal about my criticism of Bevell, but it seems to me that he doesn't attack an opposing defense's weaknesses...like, ever. If they are bad at covering TEs and RBs in the passing game, we'll just continue to run the ball right at them and throw to our wide receivers.

Click to expand...

This is my fear exactly.

If the facts are that clear, we'll learn a lot about Bevell this weekend. If he doesn't attack those weaknesses, he will cement his legacy here (and rightfully so) as stubborn and clueless.

Click to expand...

Or just paranoid.

"We can't do things that work - they'll be expecting that!"

MontanaHawk05":1hy93bpm said:

Looking at the defensive DVOA for our likely playoff opponents, it is clear that throwing to our TEs and RBs should be a significant part of our game plan for the entirety of the post season.

Click to expand...

Pete did seem to incorporate more of this against the 49ers than he did in the prior three games.

...with the caveat that what we see happen (e.g. Graham not getting targeted) is not always what Pete intends, but rather a result of the game situation and Wilson's decision-making. Seattle could deploy a playbook with "DON'T TARGET ANYONE BUT JIMMY GRAHAM" scrawled on the front cover, but if the opposing team triple-teams Jimmy all day and Wilson doesn't throw to him, Seahawks.NET will still be convinced that Pete forgot Jimmy exists.

Click to expand...

Good points.

On our second FG, the defense doubled Graham and Baldwin. Wilson looked to Graham first, then Baldwin. Both guys were covered at which point he air mailed it out the back of the end zone. Which was preferable to a pick.

We don't seem to target our RB's well this year. I remember seeing Marshawn and Rawls getting passes when the WR's run the secondary downfield and the LBers are in zone, and watching them go 10 yards before a defender was even in the picture.

This year it seems we're throwing to the RB's when it's obvious and they have guys all over them. Short yardage, etc. but the down and distance seem pretty obvious and it doesn't fool anyone.

We also need to run more 2 TE stuff. If the defense is going to over play Graham, Wilson will hit Luke Willson all day long. Wilson also needs to be cognizant of Graham getting 1 on 1's with no imminent safety help. That jump ball he won last game was just another example of how he's open when covered, and Wilson still hasn't seemed to figure this out yet.

MontanaHawk05":jot7d9fu said:

Looking at the defensive DVOA for our likely playoff opponents, it is clear that throwing to our TEs and RBs should be a significant part of our game plan for the entirety of the post season.

Click to expand...

Pete did seem to incorporate more of this against the 49ers than he did in the prior three games.

...with the caveat that what we see happen (e.g. Graham not getting targeted) is not always what Pete intends, but rather a result of the game situation and Wilson's decision-making. Seattle could deploy a playbook with "DON'T TARGET ANYONE BUT JIMMY GRAHAM" scrawled on the front cover, but if the opposing team triple-teams Jimmy all day and Wilson doesn't throw to him, Seahawks.NET will still be convinced that Pete forgot Jimmy exists.

Click to expand...

Point taken Montana, but if Jimmy is double or triple covered and the backs are covered, that leaves Baldwin, Richardson, Kearse and/or the other TE on the field in a great match-up or nobody accounting for RW on the run. The Seahawks should score 35-40 points and nobody will be nit picking about who did the damage. In theory, anyway.

SoCalSeahawk":1qwjt79e said:

MontanaHawk05":1qwjt79e said:

Looking at the defensive DVOA for our likely playoff opponents, it is clear that throwing to our TEs and RBs should be a significant part of our game plan for the entirety of the post season.

Click to expand...

Pete did seem to incorporate more of this against the 49ers than he did in the prior three games.

...with the caveat that what we see happen (e.g. Graham not getting targeted) is not always what Pete intends, but rather a result of the game situation and Wilson's decision-making. Seattle could deploy a playbook with "DON'T TARGET ANYONE BUT JIMMY GRAHAM" scrawled on the front cover, but if the opposing team triple-teams Jimmy all day and Wilson doesn't throw to him, Seahawks.NET will still be convinced that Pete forgot Jimmy exists.

Click to expand...

Point taken Montana, but if Jimmy is double or triple covered and the backs are covered, that leaves Baldwin, Richardson, Kearse and/or the other TE on the field in a great match-up or nobody accounting for RW on the run. The Seahawks should score 35-40 points and nobody will be nit picking about who did the damage. In theory, anyway.

Click to expand...

Which may be why Baldwin has had some monster games and has set receiving team receiving records this year. And why Richardson had quite a few more catches and yards this last game. And why Kearse is targeted so often.

In the end, it's 11 on 11. Double team someone or throw a spy in there on Wilson, and someone's going to be open. As long as Wilson has more than .0235 seconds to throw.

SoCalSeahawk":97opcvin said:

MontanaHawk05":97opcvin said:

Looking at the defensive DVOA for our likely playoff opponents, it is clear that throwing to our TEs and RBs should be a significant part of our game plan for the entirety of the post season.

Click to expand...

Pete did seem to incorporate more of this against the 49ers than he did in the prior three games.

...with the caveat that what we see happen (e.g. Graham not getting targeted) is not always what Pete intends, but rather a result of the game situation and Wilson's decision-making. Seattle could deploy a playbook with "DON'T TARGET ANYONE BUT JIMMY GRAHAM" scrawled on the front cover, but if the opposing team triple-teams Jimmy all day and Wilson doesn't throw to him, Seahawks.NET will still be convinced that Pete forgot Jimmy exists.

Click to expand...

Point taken Montana, but if Jimmy is double or triple covered and the backs are covered, that leaves Baldwin, Richardson, Kearse and/or the other TE on the field in a great match-up or nobody accounting for RW on the run. The Seahawks should score 35-40 points and nobody will be nit picking about who did the damage. In theory, anyway.

Click to expand...

Sounds like you're almost validating the "use Graham as a decoy" strategy.

As Sailor pointed out, it's possible that it's working. Wilson did just break the Seahawks' single-season passing record - his own record, natch. Jimmy Graham is 3rd in the NFL in receiving amongst tight ends, and 5th in YPG.

Look, I understand everyone's frustration with bevell. I have tried to keep an open mind about the guy, and it is getting difficult. The truth is though, as it pertains to this season, is that we don't truly know the extent of injuries and how that has affected play call. To me, it was clear by the play calling for boykin that Russell isn't close to a hundred percent. Those designed boots have clearly been missing. To me, I think he isn't running the offense he wants.
When Russ was healthy, he engineered top five and ten offenses. With him unhealthy, considerably worse. Factor in o line an rb woes, what's the guy to do. It is very difficult in the NFL if the opposing defense doesn't respect your run game.