The Scot Mccloughan argument and why it's wrong.

BirdsCommaAngry

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Why aren't we as good now as we were during 2013-2014? In our pursuit of an explanation for these differences, we've taken to looking to what we had back then and comparing it to what we've lacked in recent years. Among what we now lack and what may be responsible for the drop-off of the Seahawks is Scot Mccloughan, the now GM of the Redskins. We're starting to argue he was the mastermind behind the construction of our Super Bowl seasons and we're mistaken due to the explanations we omit.

There's reason to believe Scot was an important aspect of the Seahawks rise to champion and perennial playoff team. Our best drafts coincide with his involvement with the team. When the 49ers were making noise under Harbaugh, their success coincided with Scot's involvement with building their team. Similarly, Scot's struggles with alcoholism paint a picture of his departure from both the Seahawks and 49ers as happening due to personal problems rather than his ability in evaluating players. What we've got is an explanation to our question of why we aren't as good now as were a few short years ago. We were better until shortly after Scot Mccloughan was involved with our team.

But is that the only explanation? Absolutely not.

During the construction of our Super Bowl teams, we had numerous other advantages in addition to the flawed but talented Mccloughan. Pete Carroll was fresh of his stint with USC and from these experiences he was potentially much more knowledgeable of the collegiate players entering the NFL than any other coach at the time. John Schneider's rise to general manager would presumably involve less and less work in evaluating players - his early years here would represent the peak of his combined individual scouting knowledge and ability to act on that knowledge. We had an inside scoop on the draft no other team had.

Draft position and FA opportunities are also a significant factor. Our two best drafts occurred in 2010 and 2012. These were also the two drafts where we selected the highest with our first pick coming at #4 and #15 respectively. In every other draft, we've been making picks from less advantageous positions. Similarly, the 2013 off-season presented a wacky situation where an abnormally high number of talented pass-rushers were hitting FA while also being undervalued by many of the interested parties. We were able to nab Bennet and Avril to overhaul a needed position at a bargain - an opportunity teams are seldom allowed to have and one we might not win a Super Bowl without. We had comparatively more advantages and opportunities to build a team than we have had more recently.

There are psychological explanations as well. A general goal of our minds is to pursue goals, such as high performance in competition, but also to pursue everything we do with simplicity and efficiency through minimizing effort. Among the goals for a general manager, head coach, and scouts are goals like winning championships, winning ________ of the year awards, establishing a legacy, getting a promotion, or simply keeping a job. In pursuit of these goals, we can do some remarkable things.

Conversely, there are also goals surrounding personal needs, such as a need to feel competent and capable. When we won the Super Bowl championship in 2013, what our guys experienced was a very clear piece of evidence of how competent and capable we are. In addition to these tremendous feelings are also some unfortunate effects. Due to our minds' prerogative for simplicity and efficiency, this evidence also suggests we don't need to try as hard or put in as much work to feel competent and capable. We can feel good about what we've done in the past rather than work hard toward achieving goals in the future - a way of feeling good which is desirable because it requires much less effort.

Undoubtedly as successful competitive professionals, JS, PC, and co. have likely been able to resist much of the temptation to rest on the successes of the past, but not all of it can be resisted. In psychology there's also another general suggestion about the workings of our minds. We can resist and override much of what's influencing us but we're never completely immune to life's influences. Our guys don't need to try as hard now to still feel great about their professional capabilities.

Overall, we're pursuing an explanation for our current decline and commonly turn to Scot Mccloughan as the answer. This explanation is mistaken because it likely attributes more to him than the numerous other factors and explanations for why we were able to accomplish more during 2013 and 2014. Among the other explanations are those touching on the numerous other advantages we had in player acquisition during PC's early years. Our drop-off also coincides with aspects of how our minds tend to work. In pursuit of this explanation of the current Seahawk decline, we're attempting to understand, learn, and ultimately, even grow a little as people through exploring answers to complicated "Why?" questions. If I've succeeded, we'll be doing this wonderful process slightly more knowledgeably.
 

sondevil89

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It's an interesting post, particularly the psychological aspect, but like every situation we humans try to compartmentalize it into something more manageable. It is, however, a complex situation, as you mention, with a great many factors contributing to it. Everyone wonders. what's wrong? What are we missing? Recently I, and others, lamented the change since Dan Quinn left and now, you, bring up the Scott McCloughan angle.

From my perspective the first thing you have to do is not lose sight of what made the Seahawks different from other teams. Pete has established a culture that you hear the game's announcers mention over and over again. They come out here before the game and visit the facility and watch the team practice and always mention how different it is from other team's practices. Music is blaring, the players are having fun, even joking around BUT they are competing, hard! That is a very rare juxtaposition of emotions that some would see as conflicting elements coming together.

The organization not only tolerates individuality but encourages it. Does it go too far? Is it out of hand? That's what everybody thought with Beastmode but Marshawn probably could not have become the legend he did anywhere else but the Seattle Seahawks. The recent consternation re: player's recent outbursts would have almost undoubtedly been tolerated better by the media and the fans had the team went further in the playoffs but that doesn't necessarily mean that you change a culture that allowed rejects, late round picks, and undeclared free agents to become some of the very finest players in the NFL, now or then.

Nope, before you tear it down you have to remember what you're good at.

It's time to refocus and reload. This season will probably do more that any in the last five years to define what this team's legacy will be. I think there are several very prideful players that are aware of that and they are fearful it is slipping away.

New England, probably more than any team in the NFL, has shown an ability to adapt to change, will the Seahawks be as resilient?
 

Seafan

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Scot may be a good judge of talent. He may be average. We don't know. We'll see in a few years.
 
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BirdsCommaAngry

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sondevil89":t91zv0iy said:
It's time to refocus and reload. This season will probably do more that any in the last five years to define what this team's legacy will be. I think there are several very prideful players that are aware of that and they are fearful it is slipping away.

New England, probably more than any team in the NFL, has shown an ability to adapt to change, will the Seahawks be as resilient?

Reminds me of Denver saying "35" whenever someone seemed to be taking it too easy in practice the season after our guys beat their guys in the SB. We made jokes about our team still being in their heads. However, their dramatic change to a defensive juggernaut and winning of a SB would suggest they adapted and adapted very well.
 
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BirdsCommaAngry

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I have a question for you guys. Typically when I make posts like this they tend to be viewed or commented on less than most others. If this is as uninteresting of a topic at is appears to be, why is this the case?
 

sutz

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BirdsCommaAngry":3pl5l7lg said:
I have a question for you guys. Typically when I make posts like this they tend to be viewed or commented on less than most others. If this is as uninteresting of a topic at is appears to be, why is this the case?
Perhaps because it's the off season. This kind of discussion comes across as a distraction to some of us in-season.
 

FlyingGreg

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BirdsCommaAngry":3jttnea4 said:
I have a question for you guys. Typically when I make posts like this they tend to be viewed or commented on less than most others. If this is as uninteresting of a topic at is appears to be, why is this the case?

I enjoy your posts. They are well thought out and written.

They might be too long for the average message board. Most people have a short attention span.

Keep on doing what you do.
 

Seymour

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BirdsCommaAngry":wz0i58b0 said:
I have a question for you guys. Typically when I make posts like this they tend to be viewed or commented on less than most others. If this is as uninteresting of a topic at is appears to be, why is this the case?

Possibly a more condensed version would help?
 

chris98251

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BirdsCommaAngry":2vui5m23 said:
I have a question for you guys. Typically when I make posts like this they tend to be viewed or commented on less than most others. If this is as uninteresting of a topic at is appears to be, why is this the case?

More breaks in text or paragraphs, people get lost in large blocks, keep the text pointed and direct also, helps keep focus and gives items to reply about.
 
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BirdsCommaAngry

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Thanks, guys. I did some rewriting based on your suggestions. If there's something of value within the post, it will hopefully be more approachable now.

The easiest way to make it even shorter would be to cut out reasons for the recent decline. On one hand, I'm okay with doing that because yeah, this is exponentially longer than most posts on Seahawks.net. On the other, sharing ideas is a huge motivation for me even bothering to write something like this. As long as it looks, it still only takes ~3-4 minutes to read.
 
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BirdsCommaAngry

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sondevil89":3s62jk1g said:
It's an interesting post, particularly the psychological aspect, but like every situation we humans try to compartmentalize it into something more manageable. It is, however, a complex situation, as you mention, with a great many factors contributing to it. Everyone wonders. what's wrong? What are we missing? Recently I, and others, lamented the change since Dan Quinn left and now, you, bring up the Scott McCloughan angle.

For whatever reason, I had read your post but missed this part, sondevil. What you're speaking of here reflects my understanding as well - that we compartmentalize to make something more manageable. Overall, I believe everything we're capable of perceiving as human beings is going to be over-simplified in any number of ways. I also believe we all have a tendency to become dissatisfied with what we currently have and thus, generally continue to want more.

For me, the problem of not really being able to comprehend the entire truth of something is partly a problem but also a solution to those desires for more. In other words, because I lack the ability to not perceive something that's compartmentalized, there's always something new to learn. As a result, there's also always some new idea to feed to those desires for more. This seems to work too - now I am much more content with my discontent.
 

sondevil89

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BirdsCommaAngry":14jil78s said:
Thanks, guys. I did some rewriting based on your suggestions. If there's something of value within the post, it will hopefully be more approachable now.

The easiest way to make it even shorter would be to cut out reasons for the recent decline. On one hand, I'm okay with doing that because yeah, this is exponentially longer than most posts on Seahawks.net. On the other, sharing ideas is a huge motivation for me even bothering to write something like this. As long as it looks, it still only takes ~3-4 minutes to read.

Sometimes I am guilty of some of this, e.g., I will extend the discussion within my own post without waiting for someone to respond, answer my own questions, or post more than one topic within my original thought.

Not saying that's what you did and in fact, when I made my rather long-winded reply I realized part way through that I was winding off-topic and had to find a way to tie it back together.

You did make me think though and all in all, I would rather be challenged in that way.
 

mrblitz

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i thought it was cool, in that it was an in-depth posting about a topic we had been casually bandying about for months... as in, 'did the loss of that one dude (McCloughan) from the front office cause the draft quality decline?'....

Now, you've approached the topic in-depth... kudos!
 

sondevil89

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BirdsCommaAngry":2t1ns0sv said:
sondevil89":2t1ns0sv said:
It's time to refocus and reload. This season will probably do more that any in the last five years to define what this team's legacy will be. I think there are several very prideful players that are aware of that and they are fearful it is slipping away.

New England, probably more than any team in the NFL, has shown an ability to adapt to change, will the Seahawks be as resilient?

Reminds me of Denver saying "35" whenever someone seemed to be taking it too easy in practice the season after our guys beat their guys in the SB. We made jokes about our team still being in their heads. However, their dramatic change to a defensive juggernaut and winning of a SB would suggest they adapted and adapted very well.

Yes, "change management" a big catchphrase in modern management theory. We have entered a phase where change happens faster, and sometimes less predictably, than ever before. The speed with which the Broncos adapted is remarkable but it didn't come without a severe wake-up call (48). You not only have to be open to change but have a plan in place to address change. Do we have that? I think that is a big concern and you can see that reflected in the recent discussions here.
 

TwistedHusky

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I don't agree.

He seemed to be very effective for SF when he was there too.

So either he was instrumental or someone that worked for/with him was.

But it is ridiculous to point to the guy that had key contributions in two places, leaves and then both places encounter severe dropoffs, and then make excuses or plausible reasons it couldn't have been him.

If it is coincidence, it is a strange coincidence that when he leaves great players at low rounds cease to be as easy a find.

We are looking for reasons we are going to be able to create another draft filled with 2-5th rounders that make the Pro Bowl repeatedly and those reasons are not likely to manifest.
 

sondevil89

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TwistedHusky":1camqq1l said:
I don't agree.

He seemed to be very effective for SF when he was there too.

So either he was instrumental or someone that worked for/with him was.

But it is ridiculous to point to the guy that had key contributions in two places, leaves and then both places encounter severe dropoffs, and then make excuses or plausible reasons it couldn't have been him.

If it is coincidence, it is a strange coincidence that when he leaves great players at low rounds cease to be as easy a find.

We are looking for reasons we are going to be able to create another draft filled with 2-5th rounders that make the Pro Bowl repeatedly and those reasons are not likely to manifest.

You both may be on to something but I still think it's combination of things. You may be able to recognize talent but they still have to be in an environment where they can succeed. Doesn't have anything to do with Scot but, as I have said many times, could Marshawn have succeeded in any other place than here? Maybe, but I doubt it.

Here's a good visual list of Scot's picks:

http://www.csnmidatlantic.com/balitmore ... s#slide-26
 

Seafan

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None of us know how much input Scot had in San Fran or Seattle. I do remember the Hawks gave him three picks to choose at the end of one draft and those were HIS alone and they were horrible. Like I said before, watch the Redskins and we'll all know in a few years.
 
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BirdsCommaAngry

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TwistedHusky":3alcs9mo said:
I don't agree.

He seemed to be very effective for SF when he was there too.

So either he was instrumental or someone that worked for/with him was.

But it is ridiculous to point to the guy that had key contributions in two places, leaves and then both places encounter severe dropoffs, and then make excuses or plausible reasons it couldn't have been him.

If it is coincidence, it is a strange coincidence that when he leaves great players at low rounds cease to be as easy a find.

We are looking for reasons we are going to be able to create another draft filled with 2-5th rounders that make the Pro Bowl repeatedly and those reasons are not likely to manifest.

I agree with the basis for the Scot Mccloughan argument. What I don't agree with is the scope of how this argument is applied and what it can be used for. Rather than focus on how this explanation oversimplifies factors, I'm going to show how it's much less useful in our everyday lives compared to a psychological explanation.

What can we do with Scot Mccloughan as an explanation? We can bring up this perspective in a discussion with Seahawk fans and maybe seem knowledgeable and smart for doing so. It'd certainly impress more casual fans. This is cool, absolutely, but there's even more to be gained from the experience of trying to understand why the Seahawks have currently declined.

In other words, what can we do with a psychological explanation, like understanding success can make it harder to continue to succeed in a competitive occupation? If we find ourselves working in a competitive occupation, which is possible for me given my interest in writing and presenting, we can use this psychological explanation to help understand what we ought to do if we experience a lot of success in a relatively short period of time. We can use this understanding of people becoming more complacent as a result of success to temper our future expectations, such as any assumptions that success is going to automatically continue to happen. We can use this understanding to make more probabilistic decisions, like more cautiously saving money during a period success. As an aspiring writer, I can use this understanding as motivation to preemptively explore new ways of presenting ideas to appeal to potential changes in the desires of an audience (even when my current methods are still working). Psychological explanations have greater value because in addition to explaining the happenings of the Seahawks, they can also be used to improve own lives.

Overall, we can use a psychological explanation to make better decisions in the future whereas an explanation like the Scot Mccloughan argument is much more limited in what it can do for us. As much as football is an escape, it's also very much a real life social experiment offering lessons and cautionary tales about how to better achieve some of our goals.
 
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