I look around and while some of the LOB is aging, Kam in particular, I don't really see any obvious player, Offense or Defense, that I think is most likely to ahve a fall off in production. Any one of them could have an off year, that's not what I'm referring to. Someone, who because of age or lack of ability, is going to under perform.
Who is most likely to have a down year?
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Kam WAS the man but I do hope Seattle doesn't lock themselves into another contact with him. The exception being a one or two year deal that's based more on % games played. He just isn't the same player and being in the back end of D, you just can't hide the fact that he's lost his speed and quickness.
Popeyejones
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Good topic.
Top 5 leading contenders, although this is admittedly pretty hard to do with a team like the Hawks.
And just because I seemingly have to make these types of caveats here, I'm not saying ANY of these guys WILL have a down year, I'm just talking through who the contenders are (and why their contenders) if someone DOES have a down year.
1) Cliff Avril: I don't think he'll have a *down* year, but he'll probably have a more typical year for himself than last year, which might get talked about as a "down year" even though it isn't (last year was just an "up year" for him). He's also 31, and although age shouldn't be a problem yet for him, I guess it's worth mentioning if we're making small differences.
2) Frank Clark: He's one of only two high performing guys on the Hawks who hasn't strung multiple good years together yet (the other one comes next), so if you have to pick somebody the guy who hasn't shown it year in and year out yet isn't a bad pick. He's #2 and not #3 because so far in his young career he's a pass rush specialist whose signature stat is sacks, and those can really fluctuate from year to year. He could basically be the exact same guy from last year and end up with 6 sacks instead of 10: it's what happens with a stat like sacks in which the difference between 6 and 10 is the difference between getting a sack on 1% of plays versus 1.4% percent of plays -- a few banana peels across a season one way or the other and you're thought of as an entirely different player.)
3) Justin Britt: No reason really except that after Clark he's the only other good player on the Hawks who hasn't strung multiple good years together yet, so once again, if you have to pick somebody the guy who hasn't shown it year in and year out yet isn't a bad pick.
4) Richard Sherman: Was he injured last year, or is his lateral agility starting to decline? Lateral agility is usually the first to go, it was never a strength of his, and for CBs in particular when it goes it goes hard and fast. 29 is still a little young for that, so I'm going to go with injuries last year as the culprit, but in a hard to make list like this that it could be an age-related decline in lateral agility gets him to #4. You also have to factor in that although the chances of it happening are slim to none, he's the most likely player on the Hawks to have his game suffer from emotional implosion.
5) Michael Bennett: Whispers of him declining last year were overrated. He was just coming off of a statistical "up year" and missed a third of the season due to injury. He's only here because he'll be 32 and there's nobody else to go here.
DIDN'T QUITE MAKE THE LIST: Prosise, Lockett, Joeckel: Nothing wrong with any of them, but overheated expectations can cause replications of what they've done in the past to lead to accusations of "down" years.
Top 5 leading contenders, although this is admittedly pretty hard to do with a team like the Hawks.
And just because I seemingly have to make these types of caveats here, I'm not saying ANY of these guys WILL have a down year, I'm just talking through who the contenders are (and why their contenders) if someone DOES have a down year.
1) Cliff Avril: I don't think he'll have a *down* year, but he'll probably have a more typical year for himself than last year, which might get talked about as a "down year" even though it isn't (last year was just an "up year" for him). He's also 31, and although age shouldn't be a problem yet for him, I guess it's worth mentioning if we're making small differences.
2) Frank Clark: He's one of only two high performing guys on the Hawks who hasn't strung multiple good years together yet (the other one comes next), so if you have to pick somebody the guy who hasn't shown it year in and year out yet isn't a bad pick. He's #2 and not #3 because so far in his young career he's a pass rush specialist whose signature stat is sacks, and those can really fluctuate from year to year. He could basically be the exact same guy from last year and end up with 6 sacks instead of 10: it's what happens with a stat like sacks in which the difference between 6 and 10 is the difference between getting a sack on 1% of plays versus 1.4% percent of plays -- a few banana peels across a season one way or the other and you're thought of as an entirely different player.)
3) Justin Britt: No reason really except that after Clark he's the only other good player on the Hawks who hasn't strung multiple good years together yet, so once again, if you have to pick somebody the guy who hasn't shown it year in and year out yet isn't a bad pick.
4) Richard Sherman: Was he injured last year, or is his lateral agility starting to decline? Lateral agility is usually the first to go, it was never a strength of his, and for CBs in particular when it goes it goes hard and fast. 29 is still a little young for that, so I'm going to go with injuries last year as the culprit, but in a hard to make list like this that it could be an age-related decline in lateral agility gets him to #4. You also have to factor in that although the chances of it happening are slim to none, he's the most likely player on the Hawks to have his game suffer from emotional implosion.
5) Michael Bennett: Whispers of him declining last year were overrated. He was just coming off of a statistical "up year" and missed a third of the season due to injury. He's only here because he'll be 32 and there's nobody else to go here.
DIDN'T QUITE MAKE THE LIST: Prosise, Lockett, Joeckel: Nothing wrong with any of them, but overheated expectations can cause replications of what they've done in the past to lead to accusations of "down" years.
Seahwkgal
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Kearse. :laugh:
j hawk
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If Kearse and Lane preform like they did last year, I hope they don't take up two valuable roster spots this year.
vin.couve12
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I actually think Kam is a better athlete now than when he came into the league. He's got a TO like work ethic and is in much better shape along with having fixed some things that needed fixed for years while in college.
You can even see it late last year when he closes on Freeman.
[youtube]dkXPbhmktQs[/youtube]
That said, I don't think we see any drop off from any of the big 3.
You can even see it late last year when he closes on Freeman.
[youtube]dkXPbhmktQs[/youtube]
That said, I don't think we see any drop off from any of the big 3.
vin.couve12
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Uh....forgot about Lane for some reason. I don't know that he won't get cut this training camp if he shows up playing like last year even with no cap savings for cutting him. He was baaaad last year.
Kearse is an obvious potential cut if the net gain isn't there. I don't think we save much cap by cutting him though.
One of the posters above has a good point about Avril though. His usual 8 or so sacks would be considered a down year.
Kearse is an obvious potential cut if the net gain isn't there. I don't think we save much cap by cutting him though.
One of the posters above has a good point about Avril though. His usual 8 or so sacks would be considered a down year.
Popeyejones":22wjtd8a said:
Very good list backed with thought provoking comments. You should really become a Hawk fan, you're too smart for a 9'er guy.
Not taking issue with or rebutting your picks, and this is part of the reason I started this thread, you can make a case that each of those is poised to reach or exceed last year. Not saying they will, and the 29 + are the ones I would most expect to see a drop off, father time comes for all of us.
It's interesting to take position groups and do the same mental exercise.
Areas of concern for me are:
LB: Wags and KJ have been excellent, but they're also aging and I haven't seen LB draft picks to give them much depth if they get bit by injury.
LOB: For similar reasons, age and unproven young talent.
Oline: While I am far more positive then many on this board they are a position of risk with several players yet to prove themselves reliable, and Justin is the lowest on my list of possible problems as I'm buying the hype of last year. He has arrived.
RB: Health and weight are the two biggest risk factors, though I would put this groups as the one I'm least worried about.
WR: Don't see any problems here. Kearse may not make the team, but they drafted well and Locket and Richardson are prepared to breakout. Baldwin and Graham are as solid as they get. (Yes I put Graham in the WR group.)
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