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Our drafting since 2010

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Our drafting since 2010
Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:47 am
  • 2017 2 Malik McDowell 35 DT
    2017 2 Ethan Pocic 58 C
    2017 3 Shaquill Griffin 90 DB
    2017 3 Delano Hill 95 SS
    2017 3 Nazair Jones 102 DT
    2017 3 Amara Darboh 106 WR
    2017 4 Tedric Thompson 111 FS
    2017 6 Michael Tyson 187 S
    2017 6 Justin Senior 210 OT
    2017 7 David Moore 226 WR
    2017 7 Chris Carson 249 RB
    Year Rnd Player Pick Pos
    2016 1 Germain Ifedi 31 G
    2016 2 Jarran Reed 49 DT
    2016 3 C.J. Prosise 90 RB
    2016 3 Nick Vannett 94 TE
    2016 3 Rees Odhiambo 97 G
    2016 5 Quinton Jefferson 147 DT
    2016 5 Alex Collins 171 RB
    2016 6 Joey Hunt 215 C
    2016 7 Kenny Lawler 243 WR
    2016 7 Zac Brooks 247 RB
    Year Rnd Player Pick Pos
    2015 2 Frank Clark 63 DE
    2015 3 Tyler Lockett 69 WR
    2015 4 Terry Poole 130 G
    2015 4 Mark Glowinski 134 G
    2015 5 Tye Smith 170 CB
    2015 6 Obum Gwacham 209 DE
    2015 6 Kristjan Sokoli 214 DT
    2015 7 Ryan Murphy 248 DB
    Year Rnd Player Pick Pos
    2014 2 Paul Richardson 45 WR
    2014 2 Justin Britt 64 T
    2014 4 Cassius Marsh 108 DE
    2014 4 Kevin Norwood 123 WR
    2014 4 Kevin Pierre-Louis 132 LB
    2014 5 Jimmy Staten 172 DT
    2014 6 Garrett Scott 199 OL
    2014 6 Eric Pinkins 208 DB
    2014 7 Kiero Small 227 RB
    Year Rnd Player Pick Pos
    2013 2 Christine Michael 62 RB
    2013 3 Jordan Hill 87 DT
    2013 4 Chris Harper 123 WR
    2013 5 Jesse Williams 137 DT
    2013 5 Tharold Simon 138 DB
    2013 5 Luke Willson 158 TE
    2013 6 Spencer Ware 194 RB
    2013 7 Ryan Seymour 220 G
    2013 7 Ty Powell 231 DE
    2013 7 Jared Smith 241 DT
    2013 7 Michael Bowie 242 T
    Year Rnd Player Pick Pos
    2012 1 Bruce Irvin 15 DE
    2012 2 Bobby Wagner 47 LB
    2012 3 Russell Wilson 75 QB
    2012 4 Robert Turbin 106 RB
    2012 4 Jaye Howard 114 DT
    2012 5 Korey Toomer 154 LB
    2012 6 Jeremy Lane 172 DB
    2012 6 Winston Guy 181 DB
    2012 7 J.R. Sweezy 225 DT
    2012 7 Greg Scruggs 232 DE
    Year Rnd Player Pick Pos
    2011 1 James Carpenter 25 T
    2011 3 John Moffitt 75 G
    2011 4 K.J. Wright 99 LB
    2011 4 Kris Durham 107 WR
    2011 5 Richard Sherman 154 DB
    2011 5 Mark LeGree 156 DB
    2011 6 Byron Maxwell 173 DB
    2011 7 Lazarius Levingston 205 DL
    2011 7 Malcolm Smith 242 LB
    Year Rnd Player Pick Pos
    2010 1 Russell Okung 6 T
    2010 1 Earl Thomas 14 DB
    2010 2 Golden Tate 60 WR
    2010 4 Walter Thurmond 111 DB
    2010 4 E.J. Wilson 127 DE
    2010 5 Kam Chancellor 133 DB
    2010 6 Anthony McCoy 185 TE
    2010 7 Dexter Davis 236 LB
    2010 7 J

    Strange, from 2010 to 2012 We had some great players come in, yet the last 4 years, have been rather marginal, the 2013 class, has just 1 player on the team.

    Just curious as to what the differences and what occurred that made these last 4 year drafts so different.
    2013 was the year we started to dump high draft choices for more later round picks.
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    Bobblehead
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Re: Our drafting since 2010
Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:00 am
  • the 2013 draft was horrible almost across the board for a lot of the league. Take a look at the 1st round.
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    EverydayImRusselin
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Re: Our drafting since 2010
Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:58 am
  • Since they were part of the draft classes by way of trade, you have to include

    2013: Percy Harvin
    2015: Jimmy Graham

    There were also other players we've added at the expense of draft picks: Burley, McCray etc. Those you'd want to add in there too. Since they basically were picks that we didn't have the opportunity to add to the draft classes.

    Overall, I think the last few classes have stunk. I actually think there are some rather common threads in the stinkage:

    1. OL eval process. We have sunk the most draft capital in the last 7 years into the line. We have pretty much the worst OL overall in that period. One of four possibilities.

    A. We want the wrong types of guys
    B. We want the right guys but can't identify them
    C. We want the right guys, can identify them, but just don't take them.
    D. Neither. We want the right guys and get them. But we can't coach them properly

    There is very little legacy of unfortunate injuries in these picks. They just aren't good. We've exhaustively complained about where we think the fault lies here. I'm not interested in resurrecting those arguments. Bottom line is one of these four scenarios has played out year in and year out. And we should expect that to continue without making changes in the process.

    2. "I love you man" or even better, "Find a woman who talks about you like Schneider talks about Chris Carson".

    We have had very poor results with guys who PCJS has been smitten with. I'll go class by class with guys who either they admitted as much post draft, or guys who pundits reported we were smitten with (and we eventually took/reached on them to confirm their reporting). Red means not on our active roster.

    2017:

    McDowell
    Pocic
    Griffin
    Carson

    2016:

    Ifedi
    Procise
    Odhiambo
    Jefferson
    Hunt


    2015:

    Clark
    Lockett
    Poole
    Smith
    Sokoli


    2014:

    Richardson
    Norwood
    Scott


    2013:

    Michael
    Williams
    Simon

    Willson

    Seattle has tended to really foul up their class with many of these guys. Not only did many not pan out. Some that are still here are still part of the problem that they were added to solve. But just as importantly, there were other guys at the same positions who were just better and available options.

    It should be expected, that you'll miss. Probably a lot of times. But with this category of draft pick, we see that there are a really large number of players who basically were cut within a year or two of getting picked. Many of these picks were the result of trading back in the first rounds to get more mid round picks. So there was quality already sacrificed up front in addition to the failed day 2/3 picks.

    It's not that volume drafting by itself is bad. It's generally a good strategy. But if you end up wasting the added picks on players you love but maybe shouldn't -- then you're compounding draft capital loss on both ends.
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    Attyla the Hawk
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Re: Our drafting since 2010
Tue Sep 12, 2017 9:21 am
  • From 2010-2012-WOW!! That's why the Hawks have been the most successful NFC team this decade.

    A microcosm since would be 2016. JMO but they wanted Vernon Butler (or one of the DT's), but thought they could trade back and still get him. When those DT's were gone they took Ifedi, which lead to the trade for Reed (but who wasn't a pass rusher), which lead to the 2nd for McDowell, which lead to another 2nd and Kearse for Richardson. Butler by the way has done nothing of note but battled injuries and looked amazing this offseason when healthy before being cheapshotted by Giacomini and will be back soon.

    Can't knock the amazing job they've done overall, but perhaps they've gotten too cute at times? I dunno.
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Re: Our drafting since 2010
Tue Sep 12, 2017 10:58 am
  • ctrcat wrote:From 2010-2012-WOW!! That's why the Hawks have been the most successful NFC team this decade.

    A microcosm since would be 2016. JMO but they wanted Vernon Butler (or one of the DT's), but thought they could trade back and still get him. When those DT's were gone they took Ifedi, which lead to the trade for Reed (but who wasn't a pass rusher), which lead to the 2nd for McDowell, which lead to another 2nd and Kearse for Richardson. Butler by the way has done nothing of note but battled injuries and looked amazing this offseason when healthy before being cheapshotted by Giacomini and will be back soon.

    Can't knock the amazing job they've done overall, but perhaps they've gotten too cute at times? I dunno.



    The class of 10-12 is whats keeping us where we are today. We haven't added anything much more and I have to believe our window, unless something is down is slowly closing.
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    Bobblehead
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Re: Our drafting since 2010
Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:01 am
  • That is a lot of O-linemen drafted in every round of the draft. Except for the 5th.
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    sdog1981
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Re: Our drafting since 2010
Tue Sep 12, 2017 1:04 pm
  • Well this is a bit incomplete.

    Start adding UDFA guys like Doug Baldwin. That ups your draft success pretty quickly.

    Spencer Ware. He was drafted by us, then cut from a crowded backfield that included Marshawn Lynch. We had Christine Michael who looked amazing in spot duty and we didn't want to give up on that potential. Ware is a very good player for KC.

    Jaye Howard. Also a victim of a very crowded and deep DL rotation. Also of note is that he was decent for us but unremarkable. KC picked him up and he developed into a very good DT/DE. We didn't have the time to let him develop, but we did draft him and recognize good talent here.

    Add up all the UDFA's. It's good.

    Problem I have is that we seem to whiff on the 2nd rounders (since we seem to be adverse to using our 1sts). We also don't evaluate OL very well. I know the advent of the spread in college makes it tougher, but other teams seem to manage. We also have haven't had the greatest luck on drafted WR's.

    Other than that, I'd have to look at all the guys we drafted and see if they're still on an NFL roster. Just because our depth is very good at times and guys can't make the roster doesn't mean we didn't draft well. I just means it's harder to draft for this team.
    Hawks46
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Re: Our drafting since 2010
Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:19 pm
  • I think this years draft is already starting to look pretty promising. Carson, Naz and Shaq all appear to be eventual, if not immediate, strong contributors - hopefully Pocic at some point too.

    Jimmy, Lock and Frank is a great 1-2-3 punch from 2015.
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Re: Our drafting since 2010
Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:08 pm
  • Let's see... In 2009 we went 5-11. 2010 we went 7-9. 2011 we went 7-9.

    All years followed by great drafts.

    Then we went 11-5, 13-3, 12-4, 10-6, 10-5-1.

    And didn't draft as well.

    It's almost like there's a correlation between losing records and good drafts, and winning records and poorer drafts. It's almost like - OMG I may have something here... Did you know that teams who finish higher actually draft *later* than teams that finish lower? And that drafting earlier seems to be better than drafting later?

    Next we'll discover water is wet or something.
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    KiwiHawk
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Re: Our drafting since 2010
Tue Sep 12, 2017 5:16 pm
  • Crossing fingers that the 2016 draft ... gives us at least one reliable player. Ifedi has been a whiff and Procise ... oh well. Rees ... let's hope for the best. 2014 ... might be brutal as well ...ouch !!!

    What do bad drafts do to cap space? They force us to keep paying guys into their 30s?
    joeseahawks
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Re: Our drafting since 2010
Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:58 pm
  • joeseahawks wrote:Crossing fingers that the 2016 draft ... gives us at least one reliable player. Ifedi has been a whiff and Procise ... oh well. Rees ... let's hope for the best. 2014 ... might be brutal as well ...ouch !!!

    What do bad drafts do to cap space? They force us to keep paying guys into their 30s?

    I hope we draft last. Whatever players we get drafting last are the ones we get, and if they can out-compete our existing guys or UDFAs then those are the guys who should play.

    I don't care how a player was acquired. No one but fans rate GMs on what draft selections remain on the roster. Teams rate GMs on their ability to acquire talent by whatever means it takes, and on how the team performs.

    What I rate more than sticking with a high draft pick hoping he'll make the transition eventually is cutting the ability to honestly assess personnel based on performance and select the best possible combination of players. Sure you don't want to throw away a first-rounder, but if he's not cutting it you hurt the team by keeping him ahead of someone more deserving.

    I know a lot of people are going to scream Kasen Williams at me, but that's an example of fan-infatuation with a player they only saw in pre-season games. The Seahawks' staff saw him every day at camp for 3 years. Besides, the question shouldn't be Darboh vs Williams, but Lacey vs Williams, or Lacey vs Reece. And as an aside, Williams isn't exactly tearing it up in Cleveland: two targets resulting in 1 incompletion and 1 interception.
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Re: Our drafting since 2010
Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:51 pm
  • KiwiHawk wrote:Let's see... In 2009 we went 5-11. 2010 we went 7-9. 2011 we went 7-9.

    All years followed by great drafts.

    Then we went 11-5, 13-3, 12-4, 10-6, 10-5-1.

    And didn't draft as well.

    It's almost like there's a correlation between losing records and good drafts, and winning records and poorer drafts. It's almost like - OMG I may have something here... Did you know that teams who finish higher actually draft *later* than teams that finish lower? And that drafting earlier seems to be better than drafting later?

    Next we'll discover water is wet or something.



    There's no correlation as I can see. Sherman was a low draft choice, Wilson was, as was Chancellor. Any number of teams with winning records could have taken them, along with others.

    I personally think Pete Carroll was just out of the College ranks and new the players, 4 years later he didn't have the same personal insight that he had when he was a coach... Just a theory.
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    Bobblehead
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Re: Our drafting since 2010
Tue Sep 12, 2017 9:28 pm
  • The reason is that we had a certain guy from the 49ers that we hired until we later let him go.

    While he was here, magically, we seemed to pick up some of the best players in the league - even in later rounds.

    In fact, some of the best drafts we had in our HISTORY were those years and those same drafts were known as bad drafts for almost everyone else in the NFL. So using 'those other years were bad drafts for everyone' doesn't work when we did our best work in one of those bad drafts. And in those bad drafts, some great players still came out.

    As for the rest, sure we got a few players that turned decent to very good, but so did the rest of the league. EVERY team gets a few hits and misses.

    The problem is we went from WAY above average on hit rate, to below average. And shockingly, it coincided with a guy leaving that also happened to be there for some of the best players on the 49ers when THEY were really good a few years ago.

    Not saying the guy is responsible for all the draft success, but he apparently is a lucky charm or something.

    Either way, letting him go meant we were going to quickly revert back to the mean, and we did.

    Our drafting has been average since, and it isn't likely to change. The key to our success left a while ago, just like he left the 49ers before us.
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Re: Our drafting since 2010
Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:04 pm
  • kobebryant wrote:I think this years draft is already starting to look pretty promising. Carson, Naz and Shaq all appear to be eventual, if not immediate, strong contributors - hopefully Pocic at some point too.


    Going into this season, I felt our top three priorities were in order:

    1. Three tech DL
    2. Find a new starting RB
    3. Find a good OL prospect

    After two weeks, it looks like we may have nailed #1 and #2. Fant getting hurt really has magnified #3. Forcing us to start our backup who looks out of his element out there is tough. I felt (and still feel) very bullish on Fant's prospects going forward. Pocic not starting to me is a problem. Actually I have to say that Glowinski starting is a problem. He has had 19 starts in this league now and he's quite terrible. I hold zero hope that he'll ever develop beyond a journeyman swing OG. He simply can't continue to be replacement level at this stage.

    I hope Seattle finds a way to keep SR. He would go a long way to replenishing an aging unit.
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    Attyla the Hawk
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Re: Our drafting since 2010
Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:11 pm
  • Scot McCloughan was the difference.

    Niners drafting went to crap when he left SF too.
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    HawkFan72
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Re: Our drafting since 2010
Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:14 pm
  • Bobblehead wrote:
    Just curious as to what the differences and what occurred that made these last 4 year drafts so different.
    2013 was the year we started to dump high draft choices for more later round picks.



    I think this year's draft IS more like the early drafts for Pete and John.

    IMO from 2014-2016 they miscalculated some key positions (WR, O-line, RB, DB), and started panicking drafting for need because the cupboards were bare................. and not their fast, nasty and athletic mold type player.

    Good news is this year I think we got back to that.
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Re: Our drafting since 2010
Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:39 pm
  • HawkFan72 wrote:Scot McCloughan was the difference.

    Niners drafting went to crap when he left SF too.


    Yep
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Re: Our drafting since 2010
Sat Sep 23, 2017 5:44 am
  • Interesting point about the trade down strategy started in 2013. One of the things I don't like about that strategy is that they take the "we are interested in these 5 people and as long as we get one of them, we are fine." What I don't like about it is that you are essentially letting the other teams determine which of those 5 players you get. If they are selecting the other 4 before you pick the 5th, then it's reasonable to assume the 5th player is the 5th worst of that group. While it's not a guarantee the Seahawks would do better if they forced themselves to choose (see Ifedi) from those 5, well, they can't actually do worse.
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Re: Our drafting since 2010
Sat Sep 23, 2017 6:28 am
  • It's hard to make the team as TE depth is significant here and the starters are for the most established. That makes it tougher to draft and get results. Sadly as well with that reality the team has given away some talented players like Ware, Howard, and a few others.

    To me the draft is overrated and no matter how good you are drafting injury free college players become injury prone pros like Okung and Carpenter were when here.

    All in all I think the team has acquired a significantly strong base through the draft, through trades, and by roster massaging when opportunities or interesting potential candidates pop free. As well the team has had great success with UDFA acquisitions. The team is somewhat of a league wide factory for DBs who can't crack our roster or move up on the DC to deserve bigger paychecks.

    In all save for the lack of success with the OLine they have drafted well and made fewer mistakes than team's drafting earlier.
    It 's a beauty contestant times and easy to get wrong. I think their failures as far as drafting OLinemen are equivalent to a league average but am ready to be proven wrong in this regard. I don't know that it could be fairly argued that the team isn't trying to find those guys by underspending draft capital, their retention rate is low however.

    No FO is perfect and as the salary cap has tightened for the team with the need to pay several of their successful picks or acquisitions the job of keeping a powerful roster together has gotten harder. The decision to pay low for the OLine when your earliest pick is a late pick because of the steady success of the team that strategy is even more difficult and prone to failure when injuries happen.
    Until we develop a pass rush that will cause opposing teams to be forced to scheme to defend it we will never be able to consistently take the final step. The interior rush needs improvement. The OLine clearly still needs work.

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Re: Our drafting since 2010
Sat Sep 23, 2017 6:31 am
  • Pete Carroll had much more information about college Players in the first three years of his seahawks tenure. He got to know a lot during his USC years. Such an insight is hard to get while not being in the inner circle. He was a great recruiter from high School level in USC.

    After that we have been mere mortals.
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Re: Our drafting since 2010
Sat Sep 23, 2017 6:31 am
  • It would be interesting to see how many of those picks are still on nfl rosters.
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Re: Our drafting since 2010
Sat Sep 23, 2017 5:48 pm
  • TwilightError wrote:Pete Carroll had much more information about college Players in the first three years of his seahawks tenure. He got to know a lot during his USC years. Such an insight is hard to get while not being in the inner circle. He was a great recruiter from high School level in USC.

    After that we have been mere mortals.


    I really do not get this point of view. Many have made this statement, here and in media. Do NFL scouts stop at the college level when it comes to looking for talent? I have a hard time believing that. No offense meant to people who believe this but IMHO this is a false narrative that sounds good and tries to make sense of things.

    There are plenty of internet sites that scout high school players, not to mention, top high school teams play all the time on cable and direct TV. The information is there and even if it wasn't, couldn't PC scout like he did when he was at USC and follow those specific high school players through the college ranks (or send scouts to do it)? He might not get to do home visits like he did at USC but that is irrelevant because home visits are really about convincing the player to come to your college, not talent evaluation. In the NFL, interviews happen at the combine.

    All NFL teams scour every place every year, high school, JUCO, college, Canada and even other countries across the pond. Pete Carrol was not put into any sort of scouting handicap just because he went to the NFL.
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Re: Our drafting since 2010
Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:03 pm
  • Looking back at those last 8 drafts, 76 players have been drafted. This does not include undrafted free agents or other teams free agents signed. The draft is one method of acquiring players. The last 8 drafts have averaged 9.5 players chosen each year. In a 7 round draft, one could argue that they are doing an above average job of getting extra picks every year. I have counted 21 out of those 76 as on the roster still contributing members of the team. That calculates to 27%. Of course there are more players from the last few drafts than there are from some of the earlier drafts (other than 2012).

    If you take 27% of the average of 9.5 drafted players then they are "hitting" on approximately 35% of their draft picks each year under the JS/PC regime. Every year, league wide about 50% of all 1st round picks are busts or simply don't live up to draft status. I don't know what the league average is on percentage of "successful" drafting is but I would bet good money that any team would be happy with a 1/3 rate of success. As fans, we want every pick to be a potential pro bowl player. I'm sure JS/PC look at and know about their 35% rate and that is why they covet quantity over quality when it comes to number of picks. If they have more picks and they know their success rate to be roughly 35% then more picks means more chances of draft hits.
    If they close 1 player in each round every year for only 7 players drafted, their success rate or "hits" would be 2.45 players. Based on their average of 9.5 players drafted, the hit rate goes to 3.3. So 2 1/2 extra picks per year gains them roughly 1.2 "hits" /year.
    For this post, " hits" are defined as drafted players who earn a roster spot and contribute in some way.
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Re: Our drafting since 2010
Sun Sep 24, 2017 6:22 am
  • oldhawkfan wrote:Looking back at those last 8 drafts, 76 players have been drafted. This does not include undrafted free agents or other teams free agents signed. The draft is one method of acquiring players. The last 8 drafts have averaged 9.5 players chosen each year. In a 7 round draft, one could argue that they are doing an above average job of getting extra picks every year. I have counted 21 out of those 76 as on the roster still contributing members of the team. That calculates to 27%. Of course there are more players from the last few drafts than there are from some of the earlier drafts (other than 2012).

    If you take 27% of the average of 9.5 drafted players then they are "hitting" on approximately 35% of their draft picks each year under the JS/PC regime. Every year, league wide about 50% of all 1st round picks are busts or simply don't live up to draft status. I don't know what the league average is on percentage of "successful" drafting is but I would bet good money that any team would be happy with a 1/3 rate of success. As fans, we want every pick to be a potential pro bowl player. I'm sure JS/PC look at and know about their 35% rate and that is why they covet quantity over quality when it comes to number of picks. If they have more picks and they know their success rate to be roughly 35% then more picks means more chances of draft hits.
    If they close 1 player in each round every year for only 7 players drafted, their success rate or "hits" would be 2.45 players. Based on their average of 9.5 players drafted, the hit rate goes to 3.3. So 2 1/2 extra picks per year gains them roughly 1.2 "hits" /year.
    For this post, " hits" are defined as drafted players who earn a roster spot and contribute in some way.



    And...i just found some stats on the 2016 draft. 12% of players in that draft became starters at the beginning of that season. About 9% of drafted players were cut prior to the season opener.
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    oldhawkfan
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Re: Our drafting since 2010
Sun Sep 24, 2017 5:04 pm
  • EverydayImRusselin wrote:the 2013 draft was horrible almost across the board for a lot of the league. Take a look at the 1st round.


    Yeah, that was a really bad year for us too, even with high picks
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