Is the "Jump Ball" an effective offensive weapon?

Seriously? Throughout this season our offense has come to rely on Wilson launching and our receivers winning the battle for the jump ball. It seems as though Wilson is not leading his receivers on the explosive passes anymore. I can remember plays in the past where Wilson would throw the deep endzone bombs beyond the defenders arms and drop them right where our recievers could just reach them for the score ( Sydney Rice , and a few to Kearse come to mind). Why? Is his accuracy off or do our coaches believe in it's effectiveness? Or are our wideouts not getting adequate separation?

It can be at certain times of the game when we need a big play, like when the offense was rolling at the end of the Houston game.

But no, as we've seen the past two games Russell's chucking it up WAY too much hoping our WR's can come down with it.

He needs to dial it back and look for the check down or shorter routes and just move the chains.

SpokaneHawks":189xk5kt said:

Seriously? Throughout this season our offense has come to rely on Wilson launching and our receivers winning the battle for the jump ball. It seems as though Wilson is not leading his receivers on the explosive passes anymore. I can remember plays in the past where Wilson would throw the deep endzone bombs beyond the defenders arms and drop them right where our recievers could just reach them for the score ( Sydney Rice , and a few to Kearse come to mind). Why? Is his accuracy off or do our coaches believe in it's effectiveness? Or are our wideouts not getting adequate separation?

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It's a combo:

1. There are quite a few throws deep where RW is not getting plant foot down well and thusly isn't following through. That can cause over throws and underthrows respectively depending on how much mustard he's put into the throw on his arm.
2. The receivers are in fact not getting separation
3. The playcalls are having our WRs run into coverage anticipating that like we saw against Washington or in the case of Houston, their DBs being so bad that deep jump balls work better than fine.

I think a lot of this can come down to an opposing DC doing exquisite gameplanning with the right horses and understanding our tendencies better than Bevell understanding theirs.

SpokaneHawks":2ked7kf0 said:

Seriously? Throughout this season our offense has come to rely on Wilson launching and our receivers winning the battle for the jump ball. It seems as though Wilson is not leading his receivers on the explosive passes anymore. I can remember plays in the past where Wilson would throw the deep endzone bombs beyond the defenders arms and drop them right where our recievers could just reach them for the score ( Sydney Rice , and a few to Kearse come to mind). Why? Is his accuracy off or do our coaches believe in it's effectiveness? Or are our wideouts not getting adequate separation?

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LOL not all long passes are jump balls so that is a fallacy. He leads them when appropriate and jump ball other times. sometimes he has little choice as he is about to be hit or is hit. Given his success we should probably trust his judgment

Anthony!":2ux0qv7e said:

SpokaneHawks":2ux0qv7e said:

Seriously? Throughout this season our offense has come to rely on Wilson launching and our receivers winning the battle for the jump ball. It seems as though Wilson is not leading his receivers on the explosive passes anymore. I can remember plays in the past where Wilson would throw the deep endzone bombs beyond the defenders arms and drop them right where our recievers could just reach them for the score ( Sydney Rice , and a few to Kearse come to mind). Why? Is his accuracy off or do our coaches believe in it's effectiveness? Or are our wideouts not getting adequate separation?

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LOL not all long passes are jump balls so that is a fallacy. He leads them when appropriate and jump ball other times. sometimes he has little choice as he is about to be hit or is hit. Given his success we should probably trust his judgment

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Well that's the thing isn't it? RW is in fact pretty good at the deep throws relative to his peers so it's not a well he should stop drawing from. On the other hand maybe Bevell needs to lay hands on RW and explicitly call him out on the sideline for not taking easier throws even if the potential outcome for a higher variance throw is better.

It's not like RW is Drew Stanton levels of missing throws so the question should really be "what elements are currently making us uncomfortable with his throws"

The jump ball strikes me as the same strategy used in compulsive gamblers' mentality. When you gamble, you don't strike gold very often, but typically, you don't need to. All you need to do is hit one jackpot and it makes up for a lot of failed pulls of the lever.

Not that I like this mentality dominating our entire first halves, but statistically, that's what Pete is thinking, because the same strategy keeps Wilson holding onto the ball until a good shot exposes itself, and that cuts down on interceptions.

It is effective.

Generally speaking, it's a sound delivery when the QB sees the backs of the defenders' jerseys. Particularly so if the safety runs shallow with a crossing pattern. Or in our case, it's very frequently open because Jimmy Graham draws the safeties on most of his routes. If you'll notice, most of the jump balls are thrown to the left. Graham most often lines up or operates on the right.

In these cases where there is little ability for a safety to read the pass and break in on the ball, then the WR has a natural advantage over a trailing corner.

It also depends on the talents of the receivers. Seattle has two really good options (Richardson and Graham) who are very strong hands catchers above the numbers. McEvoy is kind of decent at it. Willson is not very good at it. Baldwin -- I don't think there is a catch he can't be great at. Kearse, when he was here, was ok at it but generally allowed balls to get into his body too much to feature this delivery. Lockett is similar in that his hands are both small and he doesn't really catch high passes very well. Darboh looks like he's pretty good at that kind of pass too.

Not all receivers are the same. Some can make catches above the head naturally. Some aren't as good. We have good high ball hands catchers.

This delivery has a higher percentage of being caught, but also a very high percentage of the CB running into the receiver as they can't adjust to him pulling up or even stopping for the jump. So even where the balls are not caught, they very frequently draw a DPI penalty.

Ultimately, the percentage of a positive outcome can be far greater by underthrowing with some loft. The completion percentage to hit a guy in stride who has a step on a defender is lower. But one can get into trouble if they rely on that delivery all the time. Because DBs in this league study film too. And will be ready for that kind of pass if it becomes a dominant trend.

It's a valuable tool at an offense's disposal. Particularly so, if the QB is just having difficulty dropping the ball cleanly over the shoulder. Sometimes QBs just aren't as sharp as on other days. That's natural. And throwing a jump ball is a decent method for mitigating an otherwise off day.

MontanaHawk05":1gffn9pu said:

The jump ball strikes me as the same strategy used in compulsive gamblers' mentality. When you gamble, you don't strike gold very often, but typically, you don't need to. All you need to do is hit one jackpot and it makes up for a lot of failed pulls of the lever.

Not that I like this mentality dominating our entire first halves, but statistically, that's what Pete is thinking, because the same strategy keeps Wilson holding onto the ball until a good shot exposes itself, and that cuts down on interceptions.

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As a former gambling degenerate, yes, this mentality can be there and cripple rational play.

As a current gaming nerd who is actively trying to get better at in game risk management for the specific game I'm obsessed with, this is a flawed way to approach value expectations of action because variance eats you alive some days.

I feel like Russ hits Baldwin in stride all the time along the sidelines or on corner routes where he can't really continue to the endzone. We just seem to focus on the overthrows more. The one against the Giants where Baldwin was WIDE open comes to mind.

The Hawks also don't have an established jump ball receiver in the traditional sense. PRich is amazing because he's such a slight guy but he can out-acrobat DBs to get to the ball. Typically, you have a 6'3" guy who can outmuscle DBs go up for those. Darboh might be that guy, but he can barely get on the field right now, which is common for rookies.

Sgt. Largent":22yayen1 said:

It can be at certain times of the game when we need a big play, like when the offense was rolling at the end of the Houston game.

But no, as we've seen the past two games Russell's chucking it up WAY too much hoping our WR's can come down with it.

He needs to dial it back and look for the check down or shorter routes and just move the chains.

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That would require the offense to actually have check downs and shorter routes in the play book. Which doesn't seem to be the case at all. Runs and bombs are what I see bevel calling.

Good god how you guys used to complain that Wilson wouldn’t give the receivers a chance to make a play!

Yes, but in moderation. Our run deep, send everyone on deep routes, and screw it strategy is idiotic. It doesn't work.

Even for someone like Wilson, who is considered "good" at the long ball, those deep throws are fairly low percentage plays.

One of Russel's problems, as has been mentioned here on this board, is that he seems to be too much in love with the long ball. Maybe it's Bevell, and it seems we all love to hate him, but there doesn't seem to be a lot of finding guys in underneath routes. It's kind of weird seeing him chuck the rock 35 yards downfield on a 3rd and 2. Sure, if it is intercepted it's kind of like a punt anyway, but still, was there nobody open underneath to just pick up the first? It seems to happen far too often. They don't even have to be "quick openers" either. Checking down on short yardage downs seems like a good idea to me instead of going long all the time.

:229031_shrug:

I think it appears like he is missing more because we have zero run game, while he is throwing twice as much as he used to and the pass game is less efficient. Their explosive plays came off play action in the past.

The majority of the time, the problem is throwing late.

Hence, multiple comments this season by PC (e.g., "RW was out of rhythm", "we need to establish rhythm", etc.).

Jump ball is a stupid narrative.

renofox":ixmkln51 said:

The majority of the time, the problem is throwing late.

Hence, multiple comments this season by PC (e.g., "RW was out of rhythm", "we need to establish rhythm", etc.).

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This is what I see also, our receiver has the step and a in stride catch would be a TD many times, 2 seconds earlier and it would be caught. Russell waits till he see's the DB trailing and then throws, this also creates a situation many times where he is at his max range so the ball can hang up and the WR has to wait for it.

chris98251":3ghljyg8 said:

renofox":3ghljyg8 said:

The majority of the time, the problem is throwing late.

Hence, multiple comments this season by PC (e.g., "RW was out of rhythm", "we need to establish rhythm", etc.).

Click to expand...

This is what I see also, our receiver has the step and a in stride catch would be a TD many times, 2 seconds earlier and it would be caught. Russell waits till he see's the DB trailing and then throws, this also creates a situation many times where he is at his max range so the ball can hang up and the WR has to wait for it.

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Some of that is true but I also see a lot of times where he is unable to step into due to pressure. I really think there are multiple issues when this happens. Again this does not happen all the time as he has hit them in stride many times, but there have been times when it does.

I'm not a fan of it all the time. But when you're QB is running for his life, it's gonna' happen. I just think he needs to be selective about it, and not just throw it up for grabs all the time. In the Redskins game, it cost us big time. Too many drives ruined my these throw it up plays.

GeekHawk":4btp664j said:

Sgt. Largent":4btp664j said:

It can be at certain times of the game when we need a big play, like when the offense was rolling at the end of the Houston game.

But no, as we've seen the past two games Russell's chucking it up WAY too much hoping our WR's can come down with it.

He needs to dial it back and look for the check down or shorter routes and just move the chains.

Click to expand...

That would require the offense to actually have check downs and shorter routes in the play book. Which doesn't seem to be the case at all. Runs and bombs are what I see bevel calling.

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It also requires a dependable RB that knows his blocking assignments and when to peel off into the flat for Russell's outlet valve.

Who exactly is that RB currently? I don't think it's a coincidence that once Lynch left and we no longer had a dependable healthy back on any sort of consistent basis that the screen and check down plays went away.

Rawls is in the wrong place half the time, and when he is, he fumbles or runs into his lineman cause he's such a spaz. Mckissic can be that back, but he's not an every down back. So you're not exactly fooling a defense when they see him in the backfield.