Cap concerns going into 2018

Overthecap hasn't been updated yet for the recent transactions, but things are looking very bleak in 2018 right now. Some major restructuring (kicking the can down the road ALA Saints) or some big name guys are getting cut soon.

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/seattle-seahawks/

Seahawks currently sit with $19 million in cap space and only 37 total guys on the roster. Assuming 10 practice squad players make up to a total of ~$1 million dollars ($1.29 million is the minimum for a 10 man practice squad over 17 weeks), that leave about $17 million to sign 16 more guys, plus midseason signings to replace injured guys. Usually most teams keep $5-$10 million during the year for those injury signings... That puts the FO in a very, very tight situation.

Who stays, who goes?

For reference, here are the free agents who would also be leaving at the end of the year. Some are easy decisions (Jimmy Graham, Eddie Lacy), but some are much more difficult (both the Richardsons)

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/ ... -seahawks/

QuickLightning":1tk8kxvy said:

For reference, here are the free agents who would also be leaving at the end of the year. Some are easy decisions (Jimmy Graham)

Click to expand...

Top of the league in touchdowns for tight ends (4th in the conference for receptions), more than P-Rich.

League's 3rd-best TE in yardage in 2016.

Not an easy decision, even if he does ultimately get jettisoned.

QuickLightning":2vvvjpps said:

For reference, here are the free agents who would also be leaving at the end of the year. Some are easy decisions (Jimmy Graham, Eddie Lacy), but some are much more difficult (both the Richardsons)

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/ ... -seahawks/

Click to expand...

By "easy decisions" do you mean keep, let them walk, or easier to retain?

I agree that keeping the Richardson's would be tougher to get done, but I sure hope they can.

I think Jimmy is an easy decision to let walk. He's been a lot better recently, but no where near worth $9 million.

$19+ million in cap space isn't that bad once you dig a little deeper into the numbers. Avril's $8 million cap hit, for example, will most likely be coming off the books. So that is $26.5 million, for all intents and purposes and just reading the tea leaves.

$26.5 million would leave us with around the 19th most cap space in the league. Graham (drops and poor blocking effort) is probably gone; sad to say. Deshawn Shead can be brought back for the same low salary. Luke Willson will probably re-sign for a similar salary.

I would love for them to re-sign Sheldon Richardson and Bradley McDougald. And that seems pretty doable with $26.5 million in space. Maybe they let Mcdougald walk and count on developing the younger safeties on the roster.

I'm not sure what Paul Richardson's market will look like, given his injury history and relatively low production. But I think they want him back.

We are definitely going to need to address the TE and WR positions in the draft.

With the trades JS has pulled off this season, letting Jimmy walk and nabbing that 3rd round comp is huge.

If Avril decides to hang them up, that's like finding a $7.5million buried in your flowerbed.

At this point I would rather allocate that money (if available) at Sheldon instead of jimmy.

We can also re-coup cash by cutting Jeremy Lane.

RobBaker7714409":3ijld1c7 said:

We can also re-coup cash by cutting Jeremy Lane.

Click to expand...

4,750,000 from cutting lane. That's true.

Keep in mind though, every player cut is another roster spot that will need filled. So him being cut and Avril retiring does free up a lot of money, but Avril is a BIG set of shoes to fill and it's also 2 more roster spots that will need filled.

Also the Seahawks do not have a 2nd or 3rd round pick in 2018. So filling the roster in with cheap rookies is going to be difficult as well.

As far as next season is concerned, we'll add money from the Brown extension if we need it. Both sides are talking about extending him, and if they need to, they can just turn next year's salary into a signing bonus and pay him the minimum as far as his base salary goes. That could potentially free up around $6 million.

Earl Thomas could also be extended as next year is the final year of his deal, and that could free up another big chunk of cash.

If Avril doesn't return that's another $7 million for the cap as well.

Would LOVE to keep Sheldon but what's he going to cost?

Is he a 20 million guy?

irfuben32":17goq20i said:

Would LOVE to keep Sheldon but what's he going to cost?

Is he a 20 million guy?

Click to expand...

No. He is playing a little better than Naz Jones and Reed IMO. Those 2 combined cost less than $3M I would bet...and don't write off MM appearing soon.

My question is would we get a comp if Sheldon signs a biggie with another team?

LudwigsDrummer":2jh5w5l3 said:

irfuben32":2jh5w5l3 said:

Would LOVE to keep Sheldon but what's he going to cost?

Is he a 20 million guy?

Click to expand...

No. He is playing a little better than Naz Jones and Reed IMO. Those 2 combined cost less than $3M I would bet...and don't write off MM appearing soon.

My question is would we get a comp if Sheldon signs a biggie with another team?

Click to expand...

Yes, we would get a Comp. Could be a 3rd depending on the contract.

LudwigsDrummer":hzqelnc8 said:

irfuben32":hzqelnc8 said:

Would LOVE to keep Sheldon but what's he going to cost?

Is he a 20 million guy?

Click to expand...

No. He is playing a little better than Naz Jones and Reed IMO. Those 2 combined cost less than $3M I would bet...and don't write off MM appearing soon.

My question is would we get a comp if Sheldon signs a biggie with another team?

Click to expand...

Should get a 3rd rounder back

Nobody has mentioned Sherman, extend, or possible cut ? That should reduce his cap hit also.

While we would save money if Avril retires, that money would likely be turned around and used to sign Clark. So we're really not gaining that money, but we're locking up a roster spot with Clark.

Richardson would be a great addition long term but I think he's going to cost too much.

I also think we're going to be able to sign Graham for less than what he's costing us now. Sure, he's an elite TE, but even elite TE's aren't making as much as him. Hell Gronk is making about 7 mil/year right now. Kelce is the best TE in the league right now and he's not making what Graham is. We'll likely offer him 6-8 million, which he'll turn down. Then FA pops up and I doubt he'll get what he's after, at which point he might be back.

I also wonder how good that kid we got from Texas will be. If he progresses, we'll have Willson, Vannett and that other kid....that might be a decent roster of TE's already.

Jeremy Lane -> cut.
Cliff Avril may retire, or be cut.
Earl Thomas extension = Lower cap number.
Duane Brown extension = Lower cap number.
Richard Sherman extension possibly. Him coming off an injury Sherm would be more willing to do something I think to get that long term security, and Seattle would benefit by having him at a lower number.

The Seahawks have more space than many may think.

What to do with the space created.

1a) Re-sign Jimmy Graham. Yr 1 cap number will be low.
1b) Re-sign Sheldon Richardson. Yr 1 cap number will be low.

2) Sign UFA Edge Rusher to replace Cliff Avril if he retires.

3) Extend Frank Clark.

4) Re-sign Paul Richardson, only if his market isn't crazy. He is probably gone, but you never know.

They would still have plenty of money leftover to do some things.

Like bring in a vet RB, RT, CB, etc.


TLDR
Playing around with the calculator, I quickly had the Seahawks at $45M in cap space in 2018 without cutting Avril. No need to worry.

irfuben32":3km7zygw said:

Would LOVE to keep Sheldon but what's he going to cost?

Is he a 20 million guy?

Click to expand...

He has been good, but If he is a $20 mil guy, i don't think he's back here. That is just too much money to allocate to him IMO. Perhaps we tag him at around $15 mil for another year?

QuickLightning":3ooyllem said:

I think Jimmy is an easy decision to let walk. He's been a lot better recently, but no where near worth $9 million.

Click to expand...

I go back and forth. If we continue to use him in the RZ like the last month or so, $9 million is a good price, but i'm not sure if he will be re-signed. He scored the deciding TDs in the wins over LA, HOU & AZ. If 88 puts up 10+ TDs this year (on pace for 11) than I would love him at the $9mil a year price, especially with a very weak free agent TE market in 2018 and the TE draft class not being strong. Luke is also a FA after this year, so going into next year with only Vannett and Swoopes is not ideal.

The top of the TE market hasn't risen since 2014 but mid tier guys are now making $6 mil plus in average salary:
-Dion Sims - $6 mil a year
-Julius Thomas - $6.1 mil
-Jack Doyle - $6.3 mil
-Vance McDonald - $6.55 mil
-Jermaine Gresham - $7 mil
-C.J. Fiedorowicz - $7.1 mil
-Coby Fleener - $7.2 mil
-Dwayne Allen - $7.35 mil
-Charles Clay - $7.6 mil
-Jason Witten - $7.4 mil (He's a HOF, but signed that deal at age 35)

Obviously it all depends on how the rest of the year goes, but there has been crazy money being thrown around the last 2 free agency periods.

For people that want to bring Graham back, realize that he'd probably have to be tagged (and thus paid the tag amount) in order for that happen. I doubt he has much interest in re-signing with the offense that the Seahawks run.