Hello Everyone,
It's that time of year again. The weather is getting colder, Christmas is around the corner, AND IT'S PLAYOFF SCENARIO time once again! Because the Seahawks are right in the middle of the NFC playoff pictures with the (hopefully) assent of the Moderators, I will post my NFC Playoff picture post in the Official Forums section. I will also post an accompanying AFC section for those interested in the NFL General forums here. As always the following letters may be found after some teams:
UPDATE: 9PM PST 12/7/17 after Saints lose to Falcons on TNF.
*--Clinched Home field
z--Clinched no worse than 2nd seed (First round bye)
y--Won Division (sometimes by a number if particular seed clinched)
x--Clinched Playoff spot of any type
e--Eliminated from Playoff Consideration
With all of that said, let's get this started with a division by division look starting with the NFC East:
Eagles 10-2 8-1 Conf 4-0 Div Remaining: @Rams, @Giants, Raiders, Cowboys
Cowboys 6-6 5-4 Conf 3-1 Div Remaining: @Giants, @Raiders, Seahawks, @Eagles
Redskins 5-7 4-6 Conf 1-4 Div Remaining: @Chargers, Cardinals, Broncos, @Giants
Giants (e) 2-10 0-8 Conf 0-3 Div Remaining: Cowboys, Eagles, @Cardinals, Redskins
Clinching Scenarios: Although the Eagles got bounced from the #1 seed thanks to their loss to Seattle, they actually have an easier path to the playoffs than Minnesota. Specifically if the Eagles win or tie *OR* the Cowboys lose or tie, then the Eagles are NFC East Champs. Why? The Cowboys are the only team that can catch the eagles and only if the eagles lose out and the Cowboys win out.
Elimination Scenarios: The Giants are already (obviously) eliminated. The Redskins are barely breathing because the best they can do is finish 9-7 and the minimum record for any playoff team in the NFC is 8-8 right now. Their only hope is to win out and hope Seattle either loses out or loses 3 out of 4, so they could get the head to head for the last WC spot. That means that if Washington loses this Sunday and both Seattle and Carolina win, Washington is eliminated since the minimum to get any NFC playoff spot would be increased to nine games and the best Washington could finish would be 8-8. The cowboys can be eliminated from NFC East Title contention with an Eagle win and/or Cowboy loss. They can not be removed from playoff contention in week 14. Edit Addendum: Washington is also eliminated if they lose and both Seattle and Atlanta win. Because Atlanta only plays NFLS teams, they would either wind up having more than 8 wins or force another non-Division champ to have more than 8 wins eliminating Washington.
Now let's move on to the NFC North:
Vikings 10-2 8-1 Conf 3-1 Div Remaining: @Panthers, Bengals, @Packers, Bears
Lions 6-6 5-4 Conf 3-1 Div Remaining: @Bucs, Bears, @Bengals, Packers
Packers 6-6 5-4 Conf 2-2 Div Remaining: @Browns, @Panthers, Vikings, @Lions
Bears (e) 3-9 1-9 Conf 0-4 Div Remaining: @Bengals, @Lions, Browns, @Vikings
Clinching Scenarios: Thanks to Seattle's win last night, the Vikings now hold the number one seed over the Eagles thanks to the Strength of Victory tie-breaker. However that may not last since the Vikings have a bit more of a challenge in the division (having lost a division game) AND Green Bay seems to be getting their QB back very soon. However, the Vikings have built a big enough lead that they can clinch the NFC North with a win (or tie) this Sunday OR if both Green bay and Detroit Lose (or tie). It is worth noting that a three way tie is not possible since the Lions and Packers play each other the last week of the season. If the Vikings lose out and either Green Bay OR Detroit wins out, the Vikings lose the division and risk being out of the playoffs. So in short: If the Vikings win (or tie), they are NFC North Champs. Also if Detroit loses (or ties) AND Green Bay loses (or ties), the Vikings are also NFC North Champs.
Elimination Scenarios: The Bears are already eliminated since you need to be able to finish at 8-8 minimum and the bears can't make it. Thanks to a week one win vs Seattle, Green Bay can not be eliminated from playoff contention even if they lose. Likewise the Lions can not be eliminated.
Now let's move on to the NFC South:
Saints 9-4 7-3 Conf 3-1 Div Remaining: Jets, Falcons, @Bucs
Panthers 8-4 4-4 Conf 2-2 Div Remaining: Vikings, Packers, Bucs, @Falcons
Falcons 8-5 7-2 Conf 2-1 Div Remaining: @Bucs, @Saints, Panthers
Bucs 4-8 2-6 Conf 0-3 Div Remaining: Lions, Falcons, @Carolina, Saints
Clinching Scenarios: None.(Correction, see edit below) Most of the NFC South Play each other and are within two games of each other (save the Bucs). That means that the Saints, Panthers, AND Falcons all control their own destinies. In short, it's a dogfight. Edit Correction: The panthers do not technically control their own fate since they got swept by the Saints. Panthers still very much in the hunt for the NFCS but the Panthers would have to finish with a better record than the Saints by some fashion. Both the Saints and Altanta DO control their NFCS destinies. Edit Correction: New Orleans can clinch a playoff spot (but not division) with a win against Atlanta *AND* one of the following:
1. A Panther Loss + Lions Loss OR Cowboy Loss
2. Lions Loss + Packers Loss
This is similar to how the Rams can clinch (see below). Essentially if these things happen, either New Orleans wins the South, or they finish with a 10-6 record and have tie breaks against all but one other possible WC teams with potential 10-6 records. Atlanta beat the Saints 20-17 on 12/7/17
Elimination Scenario: There is just one elimination scenario. If Tampa Bay loses (or ties) OR if Carolina wins (or ties), then Tampa Bay is eliminated from the playoffs. Tampa Bay is already eliminated from the NFC South. [Even if Seattle loses out and Tampa Bay wins out, Seattle is would be 2-2 in common games and Tampa would be 2-3, so Tampa loses any possible tiebreak with Seattle.]Edit Addendum: There is another elimination scenario: If Atlanta loses to the Saints, they are eliminated from the NFC South title race. Falcons won 20-17 over Saints on 12/7/17
And now finally the division you all have been waiting for: The NFC West:
Rams 9-3 6-3 Conf 3-1 Div Remaining: Eagles, @Seahawks, @Titans, Niners
Seahawks 8-4 6-3 Conf 4-0 Div Remaining: @Jax, Rams, @Cowboys, Cardinals
Cardinals 5-7 3-6 Conf 2-3 Div Remaining: Titans, @Redskins, Giants, @Seahawks
Niners (e) 2-10 2-9 Conf 0-5 Div Remaining: @Texans, Titans, Jax, @Rams
Clinching Scenarios: None.(see edit) Like the NFC South, the NFC West is a true dogfight between the LA Rams and Seattle Seahawks and although the Rams currently have a one game edge, Seattle has beaten the Rams, has an easier schedule down the stretch, AND has the better division record. I don't see the NFC West being settled before week 16 at the earliest. Edit: There is a scenario where the LA Rams clinch a playoff spot. This can happen if and only if all the following happen: LA Rams Win AND Panthers lose + Falcons lose + Lions lose/tie + Packers lose/tie + Cowboys lose/tie. Falcons beat Saints 20-17 on 12/7/17 meaning Rams can't clinch
Elimination Scenarios: The Niners have already been eliminated (and were since they lost their second game to Seattle). If the Cardinals lose (or tie) AND (both) Seattle AND Carolina both win (or tie), then the Cards are eliminated from the playoffs altogether (since in this case it would take a 9-7 record to make the playoffs and the best the Cards could do is 8-8). Because Arizona lost to the LA Rams last Sunday, they are ELIMINATED from the NFC West Crown contention. Why? The absolute best the Cards can finish is 9-7 and the absolute worst the Rams can finish is 9-7 and the Rams have beaten the Cards twice. So the only hope the Cards would have would be a three way tie to void the head to head, and that would have to involve Seattle in a 9-7 three way tie. However in that case, Seattle with a 5-1 division record would beat out both the Rams and Cards with a 3-3 Division record for each. Since this is the only way the Cardinals can tie for first place in the NFC West, they are eliminated.
Whew! I hope this clarifies the NFC Playoff picture for everyone. I have to say that Seattle's chances for the playoffs, but it's far from a done deal yet. That Eagles win was huuuge.
It's that time of year again. The weather is getting colder, Christmas is around the corner, AND IT'S PLAYOFF SCENARIO time once again! Because the Seahawks are right in the middle of the NFC playoff pictures with the (hopefully) assent of the Moderators, I will post my NFC Playoff picture post in the Official Forums section. I will also post an accompanying AFC section for those interested in the NFL General forums here. As always the following letters may be found after some teams:
UPDATE: 9PM PST 12/7/17 after Saints lose to Falcons on TNF.
*--Clinched Home field
z--Clinched no worse than 2nd seed (First round bye)
y--Won Division (sometimes by a number if particular seed clinched)
x--Clinched Playoff spot of any type
e--Eliminated from Playoff Consideration
With all of that said, let's get this started with a division by division look starting with the NFC East:
Eagles 10-2 8-1 Conf 4-0 Div Remaining: @Rams, @Giants, Raiders, Cowboys
Cowboys 6-6 5-4 Conf 3-1 Div Remaining: @Giants, @Raiders, Seahawks, @Eagles
Redskins 5-7 4-6 Conf 1-4 Div Remaining: @Chargers, Cardinals, Broncos, @Giants
Giants (e) 2-10 0-8 Conf 0-3 Div Remaining: Cowboys, Eagles, @Cardinals, Redskins
Clinching Scenarios: Although the Eagles got bounced from the #1 seed thanks to their loss to Seattle, they actually have an easier path to the playoffs than Minnesota. Specifically if the Eagles win or tie *OR* the Cowboys lose or tie, then the Eagles are NFC East Champs. Why? The Cowboys are the only team that can catch the eagles and only if the eagles lose out and the Cowboys win out.
Elimination Scenarios: The Giants are already (obviously) eliminated. The Redskins are barely breathing because the best they can do is finish 9-7 and the minimum record for any playoff team in the NFC is 8-8 right now. Their only hope is to win out and hope Seattle either loses out or loses 3 out of 4, so they could get the head to head for the last WC spot. That means that if Washington loses this Sunday and both Seattle and Carolina win, Washington is eliminated since the minimum to get any NFC playoff spot would be increased to nine games and the best Washington could finish would be 8-8. The cowboys can be eliminated from NFC East Title contention with an Eagle win and/or Cowboy loss. They can not be removed from playoff contention in week 14. Edit Addendum: Washington is also eliminated if they lose and both Seattle and Atlanta win. Because Atlanta only plays NFLS teams, they would either wind up having more than 8 wins or force another non-Division champ to have more than 8 wins eliminating Washington.
Now let's move on to the NFC North:
Vikings 10-2 8-1 Conf 3-1 Div Remaining: @Panthers, Bengals, @Packers, Bears
Lions 6-6 5-4 Conf 3-1 Div Remaining: @Bucs, Bears, @Bengals, Packers
Packers 6-6 5-4 Conf 2-2 Div Remaining: @Browns, @Panthers, Vikings, @Lions
Bears (e) 3-9 1-9 Conf 0-4 Div Remaining: @Bengals, @Lions, Browns, @Vikings
Clinching Scenarios: Thanks to Seattle's win last night, the Vikings now hold the number one seed over the Eagles thanks to the Strength of Victory tie-breaker. However that may not last since the Vikings have a bit more of a challenge in the division (having lost a division game) AND Green Bay seems to be getting their QB back very soon. However, the Vikings have built a big enough lead that they can clinch the NFC North with a win (or tie) this Sunday OR if both Green bay and Detroit Lose (or tie). It is worth noting that a three way tie is not possible since the Lions and Packers play each other the last week of the season. If the Vikings lose out and either Green Bay OR Detroit wins out, the Vikings lose the division and risk being out of the playoffs. So in short: If the Vikings win (or tie), they are NFC North Champs. Also if Detroit loses (or ties) AND Green Bay loses (or ties), the Vikings are also NFC North Champs.
Elimination Scenarios: The Bears are already eliminated since you need to be able to finish at 8-8 minimum and the bears can't make it. Thanks to a week one win vs Seattle, Green Bay can not be eliminated from playoff contention even if they lose. Likewise the Lions can not be eliminated.
Now let's move on to the NFC South:
Saints 9-4 7-3 Conf 3-1 Div Remaining: Jets, Falcons, @Bucs
Panthers 8-4 4-4 Conf 2-2 Div Remaining: Vikings, Packers, Bucs, @Falcons
Falcons 8-5 7-2 Conf 2-1 Div Remaining: @Bucs, @Saints, Panthers
Bucs 4-8 2-6 Conf 0-3 Div Remaining: Lions, Falcons, @Carolina, Saints
Clinching Scenarios: None.
1. A Panther Loss + Lions Loss OR Cowboy Loss
2. Lions Loss + Packers Loss
This is similar to how the Rams can clinch (see below). Essentially if these things happen, either New Orleans wins the South, or they finish with a 10-6 record and have tie breaks against all but one other possible WC teams with potential 10-6 records.
Elimination Scenario: There is just one elimination scenario. If Tampa Bay loses (or ties) OR if Carolina wins (or ties), then Tampa Bay is eliminated from the playoffs. Tampa Bay is already eliminated from the NFC South. [Even if Seattle loses out and Tampa Bay wins out, Seattle is would be 2-2 in common games and Tampa would be 2-3, so Tampa loses any possible tiebreak with Seattle.]
And now finally the division you all have been waiting for: The NFC West:
Rams 9-3 6-3 Conf 3-1 Div Remaining: Eagles, @Seahawks, @Titans, Niners
Seahawks 8-4 6-3 Conf 4-0 Div Remaining: @Jax, Rams, @Cowboys, Cardinals
Cardinals 5-7 3-6 Conf 2-3 Div Remaining: Titans, @Redskins, Giants, @Seahawks
Niners (e) 2-10 2-9 Conf 0-5 Div Remaining: @Texans, Titans, Jax, @Rams
Clinching Scenarios: None.
Elimination Scenarios: The Niners have already been eliminated (and were since they lost their second game to Seattle). If the Cardinals lose (or tie) AND (both) Seattle AND Carolina both win (or tie), then the Cards are eliminated from the playoffs altogether (since in this case it would take a 9-7 record to make the playoffs and the best the Cards could do is 8-8). Because Arizona lost to the LA Rams last Sunday, they are ELIMINATED from the NFC West Crown contention. Why? The absolute best the Cards can finish is 9-7 and the absolute worst the Rams can finish is 9-7 and the Rams have beaten the Cards twice. So the only hope the Cards would have would be a three way tie to void the head to head, and that would have to involve Seattle in a 9-7 three way tie. However in that case, Seattle with a 5-1 division record would beat out both the Rams and Cards with a 3-3 Division record for each. Since this is the only way the Cardinals can tie for first place in the NFC West, they are eliminated.
Whew! I hope this clarifies the NFC Playoff picture for everyone. I have to say that Seattle's chances for the playoffs, but it's far from a done deal yet. That Eagles win was huuuge.
