NFC Playoff Picture and Scenarios (Week 15)

Polaris

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Hello again everyone,

Like last week I will go over the NFC Playoff Picture and Scenarios for Week 15. Since Seattle is bound up in that picture, I am putting it in the Official Net Nation Forums. Before I begin, I will say, speaking only for myself that this last week should show why we should root for gaining leverage in our division first before worrying about higher level seeds. Thanks goodness the Eagles won. Enough said and I promise this will be the last I speak of it. For those of you interested in the AFC picture, I will include that HERE.

As before, the following key applies:

*--Clinched Home Field Advantages
z--Clinched at least the #2 seed and a first week bye
y--Clinched Division (sometimes followed by a number to reflect specific seed)
x--Clinched a Playoff Spot of Any kind
(e)--Eliminated from the playoffs

With all of that, let's start with the AFC East:

Eagles-y 11-2 8-2 Conf 4-0 Div Remaining Games: @Giants, Raiders, Cowboys
Cowboys 7-6 6-4 Conf 4-1 Div Remaining Games: @Raiders, Seahawks, @Eagles
Redskins (e) 5-8 4-6 Conf 1-4 Div Remaining Games: Cardinals, Broncos, @Giants
Giants (e) 2-11 0-9 Conf 0-4 Div Remaining Geams: Eagles, @Cardinals, Redskins

Clinching Scenarios: The Eagles have clinched the NFC East, and has for now regained the #1 seed and the best record in the NFC thanks to a Vikings loss. The Eagles can clinch a first round bye with a win AND a Saints loss. Why? A win would guarantee no worse than a 12-4 record, and a Saints loss would insure the Saints would have at most an 11-5 record if they won the division and the Eagles beat the Panthers earlier this year so would get the tiebreak if both finished 12-4. Likewise the Eagles beat the Rams so they would win that head to head as well....and Seattle as the only other team in the NFC West could not catch them (same applies to Atlanta in the NFC South). The Cowboys can not clinch this week.

Elimination Scenarios: The Giants have long been eliminated, and the Redskins loose all 8-8 type type breaks which means they are eliminated as well. The Cowboys even if they lose can not be eliminated in week 15 but have been eliminated from the NFC East.

Now let's move onto the NFC South (perhaps the most intriguing of the NFC Divisions):

Saints 9-4 7-3 Conf 3-1 Div Remaining Games: Jets, Falcons, @Tampa
Panthers 9-4 5-4 Conf 2-2 Div Remaining Games: Packers, Tampa, @Falcons
Falcons 8-5 7-2 Conf 2-1 Div Remaining Games: @Tampa, @Saints, Panthers
Tampa (e) 4-9 2-7 Conf 0-3 Div Remaining Games: Falcons, @Panthers, Saints

Clinching Scenarios: The important things to note here is that the Panthers have already lost twice to the Saints, and all remaining Atlanta games are in the division and they've beaten the Saints once. That means that the Falcons with an inferior record actually control their own destiny in the NFC South while the Panthers don't even though they have a better record. Near as I can tell there simply are no clinch scenarios for ANY of the NFC South teams that haven't been eliminated.

Elimination Scenarios: If the Panthers lose in week 15, they can not get a first round bye since they lost to the Eagles earlier this season (11-5 tiebreak would favor the Eagles). Aside from that only Tampa has been eliminated from the playoffs (9 losses when a playoff team can have no more than 8). None of the three alive teams can be eliminated in week 15.

Now let's move onto the NFC North:

Vikings 10-3 8-2 Conf 3-1 Div Remaining Games: Bengals, @Packers, Bears
Lions 7-6 6-4 Conf 3-1 Div Remaining Games: Bears, @Bengals, Packers
Packers 7-6 5-4 Conf 2-2 Div Remaining Games: @Panthers, Vikings, @Lions
Bears (e) 4-9 2-7 Conf 0-4 Div Remaining Games: @Lions, Browns, @Vikings

Clinching Scenarios: Like last week, the Vikings are on the verge of clinching the NFC North. Because they lost to the Panthers while the Eagles won, the Vikings are for now in the #2 spot. Just like before if the Vikings win or tie *OR* the Lions AND Packers both lose or tie, then the Vikings clinch the NFC North. Because the Vikings lost, they won't be able to secure a first week bye in week 15. Likewise neither the Lions nor Packers can secure a playoff spot and indeed are currently on the outside looking in.

Elimination Scenarios: The Bears have already been eliminated. If Lions lose or tie, they will be eliminated from the NFC North chase. The same goes for the Packers.

Finally let's move on to the Division we care the most about, the NFC West:

Rams 9-4 6-4 Conf 3-1 Div Remaining Games: @Seahawks, @Titans, Niners
Seahawks 8-5 6-3 Conf 4-0 Div Remaining Games: Rams, @Cowboys, Cardinals
Cardinals 6-7 3-6 Conf 2-3 Div Remaining Games: @Redskins, Giants, @Seahawks
Niners (e) 3-10 2-9 Conf 0-5 Div Remaining Games: Titans, Jax, @Rams

Clinching Scenarios: One thing should be immediately clear. Although the Rams have a one game edge on the division, they lose almost very tiebreak to the Seahawks immediately beneath them. That means that the game between the two in Seattle is a de-facto NFC West Championship game. Although it is true that neither team can absolutely clinch the division next week, a Rams win would give the Rams a two game edge with two to go, a commanding position by any standard. Likewise if Seattle wins, Seattle would take the NFC West via head to head tiebreak, and the Rams would have to win out and hope Seattle loses or ties in the last two games. Not as commanding as the Rams scenario, but solid nonetheless. Like last week, the Rams can clinch a playoff spot with the following: A win + lions loss or tie + Packers loss or tie + Cowboys loss or tie + Atlanta loss or tie. The Rams in this case would have 10 wins and there wouldn't be more than one other team that could achieve the same record and still be a wildcard.

Elimination Scenarios: The Niners have been elminated already (by second loss to Seattle) and the Cardinals have been eliminated from the NFC West after their second loss to the Rams. The Cardinals can be eliminated entirely with the following: 1) A Loss OR 2) Seattle win *AND* Panthers win OR Saints Win OR Atlanta Win Why? The first is obvious enough. A loss would put 8 into the loss column and that will be too much considering the Cardinal's poor tiebreaks with other potential 8-8 teams (like Detroit which has a head to head). A Seattle win is almost as fatal for Arizona. Why? A Seattle win would *insure* that at least one team in the NFC West that does NOT win the division will not only have 9 or more wins, but will win all tiebreaks against the Cards. That right there means the best the Cards can hope for is the #6 seed. However, if the Panthers or Saints or Atlanta wins, then it's guaranteed that a 9+ team will come out of the NFC South that also does not win the division and beats the Cards on tiebreaks. This eliminates Arizona. This is much like how the Redskins were eliminated this last week.

*Whew* I hope you found all this useful.
 

West TX Hawk

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Thank you Polaris for the effort put into this. It's very helpful heading down the stretch and knowing what the Hawks have to do.
 

johnnyfever

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Beat the Rams and then match their win/loss from there.

Don't beat the Rams...put a fork in this season.

Playoff picture pretty clear this year.
 

Beren

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All comes down to injuries and suspensions vs the Rams on the defensive side of the ball IMO. I trust RW to put points in the board (even if they are disproportionately weighted in the 4th quarter!). In the reverse fixture, KJ Wright and Wagner were great at mostly bottling up Gurley - without them, they could ride roughshod over us. Don't know what kind of suspensions our defensive linemen have coming their way......
 
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