How many SB wins in 10 years w/ top 5 talent every year

OrangeGravy · Dec 13, 2017

I think this poll will be a good way to understand why us fans are how we are in regards to doom n gloom vs optimists. It might also reveal other things I imagine. How many SB should you end up with realistically in a 10 year span? You have to take into account that good and bad luck happens throughout each year and from year to year with respect to in game injuries, funny bounces, refs one way or the other, etc....

Popeyejones · Dec 13, 2017

Responded to this in the other thread for the most talented team, and for that I said 1.5.

For the top 5 talented teams anything more than 1 is crazy.

In a decade there are ten Super Bowls to be won, so to reach 2 as your answer you have to predict that each of the top five teams will win two Super Bowls in ten years.

Three teams each winning two Super Bowls in a 10 year period has only happened twice since the creation of the Super Bowl.

Seymour · Dec 13, 2017

I cannot answer this poll without knowing the coaching staff that is involved. That makes a very big difference.

rossob · Dec 13, 2017

2 SB appearances and 1 win sounds about right. Mathematically you should win twice, but that imo doesn't take into consideration how the postseason works. The top 5 is an average which means the team plays sometimes better and sometimes worse. If you are in the playoffs and lose just one time to an inferior team you are out, and it doesn't matter whether you were the #1 team or #6 team on average.
Playoff appearances might be a better way to look at this.
It also depends on how strong your division and conference is. If you are the 10th best team in the NFL, but the second best team in your conference it is way easier to make it to the SB.

hgwellz12 · Dec 13, 2017

2.

I'm not even trippin off Super Bowls though.
I just want to see some basic demonstration of minimal improvement based on lessons learned from watching blatant mistakes being made over & over & over because of outdated schemes and stubborn 'philosophies'. The trophies will fall in where they fall.

HawkFan72 · Dec 13, 2017

Seahawks should have had 2, and I think that's a pretty fair expectation.

MontanaHawk05 · Dec 13, 2017

The problem with using Super Bowl appearances as a validation of top 5 talent, is that there are several other teams with top-5 talent every year and the playoff rules don't allow ties. Only one team can win. Multiple teams with good coaching and immense talent go home disappointed every year. It's just the way of things.

You make the playoffs and from there it's a new season. That's the most intellectually defensible yardstick there is.

Scorpion05 · Dec 13, 2017

Well dynasties are rare. Teams spend 4-5 years building so that MAYBE they'll make a deep post season run and win that championship. We were once one of those franchises that never won a Super Bowl. Now, we expect it

I think our perennial playoff success is something to be proud of. And I think in between that you're gonna see bone headed mistakes. The Patriots for all their greatness in a weak division and conference, had a 10 year stretch with no Super Bowl wins. Belicheck made his fair share of mistakes coaching or otherwise in between that time

gowazzu02 · Dec 13, 2017

This thread is such a thinly veiled way of whining and complaining. I love it!

Couple of questions, what does "top 5" talent mean? OF course your talking about Seattle, does the fact that they "had" such an above the mean defensive backfield cover up for the fact that they had an equally below the mean offensive line?

Also top 5 talent means theres literally 5 teams with that..... only 1 can actually win the SB each year...

Also as has been said, the one and done nature of the nfl playoffs added to the it's only a successful season if you win the superbowl doesnt' really mix.

The NFL unlike that broken MLB model has a hard salary cap making "dynasties" basically impossible, Also don't forget had we given Lynch the ball and won that super bowl, how many years would it have been between Patrios super bowl wins??????

jammerhawk · Dec 13, 2017

I wonder if the mood arounfd here would be any different if the team had not blown that play in XLIX?

Ans: for me 2.

However the poll question as posed requires a lot of assumptions before answering. It's hard to get to the SB unless you are the Patriots where you play in a division that ensures you will win every season b/c the other 3 teams are perennially weak.

Is the team underperforming? Perhaps, depending upon your view. being an anual playoff participant though is a measure of a good team and the Hawks have done a good job in that regard since Pn'J have been in charge.

NINEster · Dec 13, 2017

gowazzu02":33ia00iz said:
The NFL unlike that broken MLB model has a hard salary cap making "dynasties" basically impossible, Also don't forget had we given Lynch the ball and won that super bowl, how many years would it have been between Patrios super bowl wins??????

If what's his face caught that onside kick, the Seahawks would have not played in that Super Bowl.

Part 1:

A 97% chance of losing the NFCC with several minutes remaining..... that DB fumbled after his INT (?), blown Packers defense, miraculous 2 point conversion, Lynch's suddenly unstoppable, onside kick, get the ball first with momentum.

Part 2:

Wilson drives 90 yards for TD with a minute left to go in half after failing to get a completion in the first quarter and generally not doing a whole lot. He makes a handful of rainbow throws to a no name WR, then gets an Antonio Freeman 2.0 catch from Kearse to put the Seahawks in play for that finish.

That's a helluva lot of things to go right in order for Bevell to screw it all up at the end. Mind you that about 15-20 NFL QBs would have taken the fall for that throw, not their coordinator....

Nobody ever wants to talk about it, because the Patriots are the most hated team in the NFL I guess.

But Seahawks were really lucky to even play in that game let alone be able to have a shot at winning it prior to that drive.

rossob · Dec 13, 2017

I thought about it for a bit and had another thought. Let's assume you are making it to the playoffs every year as a top 5 team (which would be true most of the time). Now let's say you have a 50% chance to win a playoff game (I think that's a good average) since there usually are no easy opponents. If we as a top 5 team would get a first-round bye on 50% of the cases (no clue what a mathematically reasonable percentage would be, but that should suffice).
Your chance to win the SB without a first-round bye would be 6.25% with one 12.5%, 5x0.0625+5x0.125 = 0.9375%

Unless my calculations are really off, and please correct me if they are, you would win 1 SB in 10 years. Of course, I did not take the home-field advantage into account and those numbers are far from perfect, but they should give one a good idea of what to expect in my opinion.

RCATES · Dec 13, 2017

Seymour":2ufcoi4b said:
I cannot answer this poll without knowing the coaching staff that is involved. That makes a very big difference.

Exactly this. The difference for our team and our Achilles is coaching. Bill Belichick would have already put 3-4 Lombardi's in the case at Vmac.

907Hawk · Dec 13, 2017

NINEster":2tmff371 said:
gowazzu02":2tmff371 said:

The NFL unlike that broken MLB model has a hard salary cap making "dynasties" basically impossible, Also don't forget had we given Lynch the ball and won that super bowl, how many years would it have been between Patrios super bowl wins??????

Click to expand...

If what's his face caught that onside kick, the Seahawks would have not played in that Super Bowl.

Part 1:

A 97% chance of losing the NFCC with several minutes remaining..... that DB fumbled after his INT (?), blown Packers defense, miraculous 2 point conversion, Lynch's suddenly unstoppable, onside kick, get the ball first with momentum.

Part 2:

Wilson drives 90 yards for TD with a minute left to go in half after failing to get a completion in the first quarter and generally not doing a whole lot. He makes a handful of rainbow throws to a no name WR, then gets an Antonio Freeman 2.0 catch from Kearse to put the Seahawks in play for that finish.

That's a helluva lot of things to go right in order for Bevell to screw it all up at the end. Mind you that about 15-20 NFL QBs would have taken the fall for that throw, not their coordinator....

Nobody ever wants to talk about it, because the Patriots are the most hated team in the NFL I guess.

But Seahawks were really lucky to even play in that game let alone be able to have a shot at winning it prior to that drive.

Ninester, don’t come in here with these common sense posts, don’t you know it’s always Bevell or Pete’s fault, and has nothing todo with players on the field and the luck teams get from the football gods.

pittpnthrs · Dec 13, 2017

Top 5 talent with a competent coaching staff. 3 or more.

kobebryant · Dec 13, 2017

0-1.

It's so hard - injuries, bounces, luck all goes into it, did you end up with a favorable regular season schedule etc etc

Look at Manning's Colts or Brady's Pats and that gap between Super Bowl 3 & 4. Those Brady/Moss/Welker Pats where some of the most impressive squads ever - zero rings.

To steer it towards the Hawks, I'm absolutely satisfied if Pete's run ends with 1 SB win and one SB loss. There's been some damn strong programs competing in the NFC during this run - Harbaugh's 49ers, Packers with Aaron, Panthers and Falcons have consistently been tough for the Hawks.

I'd say that the Packers, more than anyone, should feel a little underwhelmed by the past 10 years. Though fans should never take a consistent winner and competitive football for granted.

adeltaY · Dec 13, 2017

NINEster":2my6ebhc said:
gowazzu02":2my6ebhc said:

The NFL unlike that broken MLB model has a hard salary cap making "dynasties" basically impossible, Also don't forget had we given Lynch the ball and won that super bowl, how many years would it have been between Patrios super bowl wins??????

Click to expand...

If what's his face caught that onside kick, the Seahawks would have not played in that Super Bowl.

Part 1:

A 97% chance of losing the NFCC with several minutes remaining..... that DB fumbled after his INT (?), blown Packers defense, miraculous 2 point conversion, Lynch's suddenly unstoppable, onside kick, get the ball first with momentum.

Part 2:

Wilson drives 90 yards for TD with a minute left to go in half after failing to get a completion in the first quarter and generally not doing a whole lot. He makes a handful of rainbow throws to a no name WR, then gets an Antonio Freeman 2.0 catch from Kearse to put the Seahawks in play for that finish.

That's a helluva lot of things to go right in order for Bevell to screw it all up at the end. Mind you that about 15-20 NFL QBs would have taken the fall for that throw, not their coordinator....

Nobody ever wants to talk about it, because the Patriots are the most hated team in the NFL I guess.

But Seahawks were really lucky to even play in that game let alone be able to have a shot at winning it prior to that drive.

Every team has lucky plays that take them to the SB or win it for them. If James Harrison rushes the passer instead of dropping back, maybe the Steelers don't have six. If Edelman doesn't grab a ball that could easily have been picked off the ground, the Falcons have their first championship. If Kevin Dyson made it that extra yard, the Titans get theirs. If Kyle Williams doesn't keep putting the ball on the ground or Kaep completes either fade to Crabtree.... you get the point.

We were lucky, but we were also very unlucky in that SB run. Not going to apologize or feel bad for it. You can pick apart the lucky plays that went for us and ignore the injuries that we sustained through that SB. Highlight the big play Kearse made and fail to mentioned the crucial drop he committed that would likely have sealed the game.

BigMeach · Dec 13, 2017

Even the #1 talented team could not win a SB in 10 years. There's no true thermometer for this. The problem lies in a 1 and done tournament. There isn't an odds equalizer like in other sports to allow talent to truly shine through. Best of 3 would change everything.

WilsonMVP · Dec 13, 2017

kobebryant":w40hg662 said:
0-1.

It's so hard - injuries, bounces, luck all goes into it, did you end up with a favorable regular season schedule etc etc

Look at Manning's Colts or Brady's Pats and that gap between Super Bowl 3 & 4. Those Brady/Moss/Welker Pats where some of the most impressive squads ever - zero rings.

To steer it towards the Hawks, I'm absolutely satisfied if Pete's run ends with 1 SB win and one SB loss. There's been some damn strong programs competing in the NFC during this run - Harbaugh's 49ers, Packers with Aaron, Panthers and Falcons have consistently been tough for the Hawks.

I'd say that the Packers, more than anyone, should feel a little underwhelmed by the past 10 years. Though fans should never take a consistent winner and competitive football for granted.

Packers are the most underachiveving team in the entire NFL the last 25ish years

I mean CMON

You have Favre and Rodgers back to back with barely any other QB play inbetween that and you can only win 2 superbowls in that time..that is a collosal failure, im sorry.

Quite possible having the 2nd best QB ever to play in Rodgers and then easily top 10 QB in nfl history with Favre. 2 HOF Qbs

In that same time period the Seahawks have been to the same ammount of superbowls but went 1-2 instead of 2-1. I know in the NFC side Packers, Giants and Seahawks are the ONLY teams that have been there 3 times since Favre became a Packer so as far as the NFC goes the Seahawks have been one of the best teams in it

AgentDib · Dec 13, 2017

The very upper limit is 2 and requires assuming that only the top 5 teams can win the Super Bowl (1/5 * 10 years = 2 wins).

Of course the Super Bowl winner is often not one of the preseason top 5 teams, so the real answer is significantly less than 2.

BigMeach":ywv1onsc said:
Even the #1 talented team could not win a SB in 10 years. There's no true thermometer for this. The problem lies in a 1 and done tournament. There isn't an odds equalizer like in other sports to allow talent to truly shine through. Best of 3 would change everything.

You're right but I don't think it's a problem. It keeps the dream alive for the 31 other teams that are not the best and the NFL playoffs are super exciting. It might feel bad when you're at the very top, but in the long run it's a great way of handling things. I love the idea that every game matters a huge amount and single plays here and there determine the entire season.

How many SB wins in 10 years w/ top 5 talent every year

How many Super Bowl wins in 10 years if you start with a top 5 roster talent wise?

more than 5 SB wins

5

4

3

2

Less than 2

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