poly1274":2wba0qwu said:
what. dont understand what you wrote.
Obviously. I could have predicted that based on the OP.
Let me repeat:
I've averaged and calculated the standard deviation for several drive stats both on offense and defense from 2012-2017. These include 3 and Outs per drive, TDs/RZ, Punts/Drive, etc etc. Before I reveal how 2017 measured up to 2012-2017 I want to see your guess as to how the defense performed to their averages versus the offense.
I'll help a bit
TDs Per Drive - Which side of the ball was performing 1 standard deviation below their 6 season average in 2017?
Punts per Drive - Which side of the ball was performing 1 standard deviation below their 6 season average in 2017?
3 and Outs per Drive - Which side of the ball was performing 1 standard deviation below their 6 season average in 2017?
I'll give you a freebie - The only drive statistic in 2017 where the defense performed one standard deviation below their average was AVG Lead at the start of their drive. Something that has strong interplay with the offense.
In fact, when I measured each season against the average performance from 2012-2017 the defense's worst year was 2016 from a drive efficiency POV. They are a bit off from the high water marks of 2013 and 2015 but the offense has had two very negative years in a row, 2017 being the single most divergent season from average by the offense and with Punts per Drive and 3 and Outs per Drive being more than one standard deviation from average in a bad way.
I'm still waiting on the last update of the season from Football Outsiders to complete the season but my gut tells me that Sunday's losing effort won't move the needle much at all one way or another but as it stands from week 16, the Seahawks Defense was only slightly off from average while the offense was a smoldering pile of rubble.
I've tried sharing this as google sheets document but it destroys the math and logical hoops I created to divine the comparison. Here are the raw stats you can play around with -
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsoff
Trust me, you're barking up the wrong tree in the problems with the team. The defense isn't as good as the high water mark but only slightly so. The offense has changed for the worse.