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Our SB winning formula is toast

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Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:41 pm
  • This started in another thread about Kam and his contract hit we will now be soaking up. In that thread the Wilson contract was brought up and it's effects on the team. In signing Duane Brown they pushed back money from 2017 to 2018 and 19 to the sum of over $6M to sign Brown.

    Now we are going to pay up the ying yang to keep Wilson (and others as you will see) because Pete and John swung for the fences and whiffed.

    Here is what our core now costs us compared to in 2013 when we won it all.

    Wilson was 526K now 2018 $23.8M and 2019 $25.2M (this is up near $9.2M over 2017 cap hit!!)
    Sherman was 555K now $13.2M
    Earl was $2.0M now $10.4M
    Wagner was 585K now $13.6M
    Baldwin was 555K now $11.9M.

    So here is the point. To field these very same players next season, we go from paying them a total of $4.2M in 2013 to $72.9M in 2018. That is an increase of $68.7M to keep the very same players!

    In 2013 we took that and bought the highest paid oline in the NFL, blew some on Percy, and had a top 5 RB in Lynch.
    That is how we won, we hit on a couple of drafts, hit top 5 players in their position, and had to pay next to nothing at that time.

    Now we are in complete cap hell with Chancellor taking $9.5M, and these contracts that now 2 have pushed back $$ in Baldwin and Wilson to swing for the fences in 2017 and whiffed.

    I don't have an answer other then to unload some of those contracts above and get what you can get. What I do know is we need to hit a couple of consecutive drafts to reproduce that success and have at least a few great players playing for cheap or you will not put together a SB winning team IMO. Not here under Pete at least.

    Thread is open to all players contracts, what to do from here, and what you think we need to do to get back to the SB and win.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:00 pm
  • To be fair, the team spending limits have also increased quite substantially (although not at the same rate). It was about $123 million in 2013 and jumped to $167 million last year. That's $45 million and that number continues to rise every year.

    Also using Wilson's cap hit in comparison to 2017 is also a misnomer. He lowered his cap hit in 2017 and moved it into future years to help save the team some needed cap space this season.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:11 pm
  • I don't agree with this point at all. The problem with our team is really because some of our players aren't playing at a high enough level. A healthy Seahawks team this year makes a Super Bowl run, period. With Carson, with Kam, with Sherman, and others

    In my opinion, we need to hit big in the draft on an RB, and on DL depth. Yes, we won a SB with one formula...but that's why most teams never become a dynasty. They try to repeat the same formula and teams catch up to it. In order the Eagles to keep up their success, they will have to adapt. Heck, as much as I hate the Patriots...they've won their 5 Super Bowls in several different ways. With defense, with offense, with all 3 phases. That's coaching. If we had the Eagles talent we'd still fail because of coaching
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:19 pm
  • The team needs to unload Bennett and Chancellor, then draft smart and hope they can get at least 2-4 good quality players
    semiahmoo wrote:I'll say it again - this is Pete's last season in Seattle if the teams doesn't make a legit hard run deep into the playoffs.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:22 pm
  • kidhawk wrote:To be fair, the team spending limits have also increased quite substantially (although not at the same rate). It was about $123 million in 2013 and jumped to $167 million last year. That's $45 million and that number continues to rise every year.

    Also using Wilson's cap hit in comparison to 2017 is also a misnomer. He lowered his cap hit in 2017 and moved it into future years to help save the team some needed cap space this season
    .


    Agree, and the very reason I brought that up is now we are paying the price for "swinging for the fences" with money we did not have. That was short sighted and now we get to pay for that mistake.

    The question is, what to do now.

    Wilson is my favorite Hawk, and this cap situation makes me now question if we can live with his contract given our run first mentality.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:23 pm
  • It would seem to me that Russell Wilson is essentially on a 2 year prove it deal. if the Hawks are not going anywhere, I think paying him 25+ million per year on a new contract would be prohibitive. At that point, we likely are need of a major rebuild and quite likely Pete Caroll would retire necessitating hiring a new coach who may or may not feel Wilson is his guy.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:27 pm

Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:30 pm
  • Seymour wrote:
    Jerhawk wrote:The team needs to unload Bennett and Chancellor, then draft smart and hope they can get at least 2-4 good quality players


    Getting rid of Chancellor and Bennett this year actually costs more money than it saves. That is why I left them out.
    I'll let someone else explain that if you don't believe me....or you can read this. We save $3M to release Bennett.

    https://www.seattlepi.com/sports/seahawks/article/Kam-Chancellor-s-contract-was-worst-extension-in-12499124.php



    Then how would them not getting cleared to play affect your plan? Something like Zac Orr he wanted to play after his neck injury but was never cleared by medical staff.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:37 pm
  • Seymour have a look at the 2019 cap, it looks far brighter.

    They went for it all in 2017 at the expense of 2018 and it didn’t work out.

    Nobody on this planet would have been unhappy with it had it worked, and it very easily could have done if it wasn’t for a number of factors outside of their control.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:45 pm
  • original poster wrote:Seymour have a look at the 2019 cap, it looks far brighter.

    They went for it all in 2017 at the expense of 2018 and it didn’t work out.

    Nobody on this planet would have been unhappy with it had it worked, and it very easily could have done if it wasn’t for a number of factors outside of their control.


    I appreciate the upbeat post, but we go from 46 players under contract to 22 players under contract in 2019 and have lost draft picks due to poor moves (actually 19 players if you remove McDowell, Lane, Chancellor) I see that as a whole different problem, not necessarily better for building a winning team. Also, many of those left will be near their careers end.

    We will have an average of $2.6M per player to fill those 31 spots to make the 53.
    Last edited by Seymour on Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:49 pm
  • Seymour wrote:
    Jerhawk wrote:The team needs to unload Bennett and Chancellor, then draft smart and hope they can get at least 2-4 good quality players


    Getting rid of Chancellor and Bennett this year actually costs more money than it saves. That is why I left them out.
    I'll let someone else explain that if you don't believe me....or you can read this. We save $3M to release Bennett.

    https://www.seattlepi.com/sports/seahawks/article/Kam-Chancellor-s-contract-was-worst-extension-in-12499124.php


    You're exactly right Seymour. And those extensions never should've happened. I'll go to my grave saying that.
    The team will be in cap hell this year, but 2019 should be a breath of fresh air.
    semiahmoo wrote:I'll say it again - this is Pete's last season in Seattle if the teams doesn't make a legit hard run deep into the playoffs.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:58 pm
  • I pointed out in another thread that we shouldn't even be setting or expecting the SB as a goal.

    This team has a QB that COULD potentially be great enough to carry a team to the SB, Aaron Rodgers style. But it would require going all in on offense and having an offensive coordinator that could push this team over by leveraging our greatest assets (Wilson, Baldwin, etc).

    However, Pete has a philosophy that does not jibe with that approach so I highly doubt we take it.

    But, you don't have to win the SB to enjoy a team. It was only squandering of opportunities that was frustrating. I don't see us as some organization with transcendent talent that is being held back by overly unproductive coaching decisions. I DID see that 1-2 years ago and was frustrated.

    While we have a chance at being a contending team by focusing on the QB, remember that GB is the best example of that and they aren't going to SBs either.

    We no longer have a great defense. We have a very good defense. But you cannot expect to get to a SB with a very good defense and a very average offense. I don't see that changing overnight especially with our cap situation and our draft picks pretty much gone.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 4:07 pm
  • So we get one bite of lobster tail with butter and garlic and your telling us to never have that as a goal for dinner again?

    LOL @ that. How many teams start the season and concede they are not going to be contenders?

    I don't expect it. I just want it, especially with Wilson here. But ya, we can bow down and play the Jeff Fisher Rams and win one against the "tough guys" each year to bolster the spirit if that suites you I suppose.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 4:15 pm
  • We are not going to a SB with our OL. You can’t run the ball with that line.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 4:31 pm
  • NJlargent wrote:We are not going to a SB with our OL. You can’t run the ball with that line.


    Exactly what I said the last 2 years with Cable here calling the shots and signing rejects to huge deals. At least we have a prayer with Solari here now. Even without the injuries in 2017, we were held back from greatness with the OL anchor in tow IMO.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 4:55 pm
  • Well, now I'm depressed about the Hawks.... :180670:
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:00 pm
  • Every season the SB formula for winning changes for every team except the Patriots. They have a formula that the rest of the league wishes they could copy.

    That said I don't think the formula for the team winning XVIII and getting to the final play of XLIX was anything more than playing suffocating D and being able to run the ball some. Getting back to that formula will return the winning.

    At present the the OLine has held the team back and the defensive core has gotten less hungry and more injury prone.

    Getting rid of Cable/Bevell will now force a change of direction that could be a positive. The anchors have been hauled abord. Time will tell. More accountability will certainly be important going forward. Ending unforced errors and playing smart football will also be a big part of it too. The Oline has some talented players here they needed better coaching and different approach.

    The coaching for the Hawks was not held accountable after XLIX and the team developed the malaise of thinking they were what their press clipping said they were. To remove/weaken the D core to injury made things clear they were not an elite team then, but could have been. The change of direction with the coaching may be the harbinger of real change that returns the hunger to win.

    I think the team is closer to being a winner than a few here want the majority to believe. Things are not as bad as some want to believe.
    Until we develop a pass rush that will cause opposing teams to be forced to scheme to defend it we will never be able to consistently take the final step. The interior rush needs improvement. The OLine clearly still needs work.

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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:54 pm
  • NJlargent wrote:We are not going to a SB with our OL. You can’t run the ball with that line.


    Or Head Coach....
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:59 pm
  • jammerhawk wrote:Every season the SB formula for winning changes for every team except the Patriots. They have a formula that the rest of the league wishes they could copy.

    That said I don't think the formula for the team winning XVIII and getting to the final play of XLIX was anything more than playing suffocating D and being able to run the ball some. Getting back to that formula will return the winning.

    At present the the OLine has held the team back and the defensive core has gotten less hungry and more injury prone.

    Getting rid of Cable/Bevell will now force a change of direction that could be a positive. The anchors have been hauled abord. Time will tell. More accountability will certainly be important going forward. Ending unforced errors and playing smart football will also be a big part of it too. The Oline has some talented players here they needed better coaching and different approach.

    The coaching for the Hawks was not held accountable after XLIX and the team developed the malaise of thinking they were what their press clipping said they were. To remove/weaken the D core to injury made things clear they were not an elite team then, but could have been. The change of direction with the coaching may be the harbinger of real change that returns the hunger to win.

    I think the team is closer to being a winner than a few here want the majority to believe. Things are not as bad as some want to believe.


    As far as how they build their team I would agree. But one thing we all have in common is the same and I'll say it again. The cap is depressing but is not even our biggest problem IMO. Consistancy in drafting and not 1 top 5 player at his position in 5 years is our biggest problem. And i see nothing that was done to improve that area myself.

    As far as "wanting" to believe we are in trouble that is not the case with me. I wanted to not believe it, but after looking closer at the cores cap numbers in their final couple of years it kinda jumps out and bites you that what they have done to win came at a steep cost of the future.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:34 pm
  • Hence the reason all this 'get rid of this guy to get under the cap' conversation is pointless.

    We don't get solid replacements for stars, we hardly get serviceable players at an above average rate.

    Our hit rate on drafted players is horrendous but we haven't really had a 1st round pick since something like 2013 anyway.

    We also love to trade away our 2nd rd picks.

    We cannot draft well now. We don't do tremendously well in FA acquisitions. I suppose getting under the cap would help if we did those things. But we really just depend on the few successful draft picks (that most are getting older) to keep producing.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:00 pm
  • The Steelers way, The patriot's way, (1980's) 49ers way, The Packer way, all of these teams had something in common in the way they worked the talent system. If we look at how these players play and how the game is played the Seahawk way was a young team with a master motivator coach who grew along with his players. The players are older now and know that "always compete" does not apply to many of them. For a Pete Carroll system to work I think he needs to stay young on defense and go older on offense. The Pete Carroll system still works on the NFL level for defense, even this past season with injuries and no pass rush the team still finished 11th in total defense. This "bad" Seahawks defense gave up 20.8 points per game good for 13th that is only 2.3 points per game from a top 5 finish. The System works Pete needs a daft like the 2017 DB's R Us, he needs to focuses the 2018 draft on the Dline and Oline. The system is in place to start to let these older players leave like the Patriots.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:16 pm
  • The great teams adapt to their situation in order to sustain greatness. This is when we find out if we got lucky in the draft a while back, or if our front office actually knows what they are doing.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:33 pm
  • Is our Super bowl winning formula to draft a bunch of great players and pay them nothing? Why haven’t other teams tried this?
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:41 pm
  • Uncle Si wrote:Is our Super bowl winning formula to draft a bunch of great players and pay them nothing? Why haven’t other teams tried this?


    Winning teams sustain their culture by drafting their replacement and having them learn behind the elite talent.

    If suddenly we can’t put a good product on the field when our roster changes, that is a big problem and falls on the GM and HC.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:49 pm
  • I really think we should draft Griffin's brother, trade or cut sherm , { then go dline dline dline
    I think the griffin boys together would spur each other on like no other tandem
    Look , next years going to be tough no matter what but these are the days of tough decisions that if we don't make we are even more screwed
    Were going to have to find a replacement for Earl sooner or later or make him the highest paid safety which he is worth but for how much longer ? 2 - 3 years tops , maybe less , who knows
    Hope that Solari works I magic with our oline
    Retain Mcdougald
    Retain Coleman
    Can we keep Graham ?
    It'd sure make life easier to let him go but those TDs are highly valuable
    Many more tough decisions to come
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:53 pm
  • So to some it up it boils down to drafting. Our formula is toast because we are not hitting enough good talent to bring the cap number down, then that gets us to FA where we have to spend to fill holes, or trades where we lose draft picks. Getting rid of Cable should help since he blew a ton or resource chasing his tail, but it goes beyond him too. Here is our RB's drafted over the last 6 years...all 13 of them.

    This is good article that spells out our RB parameters, and those very parameters eliminate backs like Elliot. :shock:

    https://www.fieldgulls.com/2018/1/8/16861916/seahawks-2018-draft-running-back

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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:13 pm
  • AF_BASS_MAN wrote:
    Uncle Si wrote:Is our Super bowl winning formula to draft a bunch of great players and pay them nothing? Why haven’t other teams tried this?


    Winning teams sustain their culture by drafting their replacement and having them learn behind the elite talent.

    If suddenly we can’t put a good product on the field when our roster changes, that is a big problem and falls on the GM and HC.


    He gets it. :2thumbs:
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:17 pm
  • AF_BASS_MAN wrote:The great teams adapt to their situation in order to sustain greatness. This is when we find out if we got lucky in the draft a while back, or if our front office actually knows what they are doing.


    I think the answer is we were lucky and it is pretty obvious.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:27 pm
  • AF_BASS_MAN wrote:
    Uncle Si wrote:Is our Super bowl winning formula to draft a bunch of great players and pay them nothing? Why haven’t other teams tried this?


    Winning teams sustain their culture by drafting their replacement and having them learn behind the elite talent.

    If suddenly we can’t put a good product on the field when our roster changes, that is a big problem and falls on the GM and HC.


    Which winning teams over the last 25 years (or from 1994 salary cap onset) have done that though? Which teams have won multiple Super Bowls without paying their stars and instead played their drafted replacements when the stars cost too much?

    Patriots? Sure helps Brady makes 100% below market value. Who are the others? There are 5 other teams who have appeared in multiple Super Bowls since 1994 within 5 years of an appearance: Dallas, Denver (twice), Pittsburgh (went to 3 Super Bowls) the Giants and Seattle. It’s not a culture. It’s a QB and some other star players.

    There is basically one way to sustain success in this league over the long haul and it involves the wife of your star player making 50 million a year. Everyone is scrambling to pay stars and mix in youth and role players.

    And if the Seahawks had made that one play, these threads would have different titles.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:58 pm
  • Uncle Si wrote:
    AF_BASS_MAN wrote:
    Uncle Si wrote:Is our Super bowl winning formula to draft a bunch of great players and pay them nothing? Why haven’t other teams tried this?


    Winning teams sustain their culture by drafting their replacement and having them learn behind the elite talent.

    If suddenly we can’t put a good product on the field when our roster changes, that is a big problem and falls on the GM and HC.


    Which winning teams over the last 25 years (or from 1994 salary cap onset) have done that though? Which teams have won multiple Super Bowls without paying their stars and instead played their drafted replacements when the stars cost too much?

    Patriots? Sure helps Brady makes 100% below market value. Who are the others? There are 5 other teams who have appeared in multiple Super Bowls since 1994 within 5 years of an appearance: Dallas, Denver (twice), Pittsburgh (went to 3 Super Bowls) the Giants and Seattle. It’s not a culture. It’s a QB and some other star players.

    There is basically one way to sustain success in this league over the long haul and it involves the wife of your star player making 50 million a year. Everyone is scrambling to pay stars and mix in youth and role players.

    And if the Seahawks had made that one play, these threads would have different titles.


    Speaking of which, the play was probably a fairly close #2 reason for the decline behind the drafting. But we didn't make the play and the D didn't hold up their end so the threads will continue until the tide turns.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:10 pm
  • There have been salary cap posts on here for over a decade. Yours isn’t new. The trend seems to be the need to manufacture hyperbolic emotion in them

    “It’s toast!!!!”

    Oh the madness of it all.

    Drafting a whole bunch of future pro bowlers and maybe Hall of famers in a 3 year span is not a formula. It’s very very fortunate and rare.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:55 pm
  • We're not gonna hit some drafts. Scotty McGloughlin is gone
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:24 pm
  • That 23-30 million @QB really helps that formula crash and burn.
    I know it's not the only number that hurts but we have to start right there.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:23 am
  • Uncle Si wrote:
    AF_BASS_MAN wrote:
    Uncle Si wrote:Is our Super bowl winning formula to draft a bunch of great players and pay them nothing? Why haven’t other teams tried this?


    Winning teams sustain their culture by drafting their replacement and having them learn behind the elite talent.

    If suddenly we can’t put a good product on the field when our roster changes, that is a big problem and falls on the GM and HC.


    Which winning teams over the last 25 years (or from 1994 salary cap onset) have done that though? Which teams have won multiple Super Bowls without paying their stars and instead played their drafted replacements when the stars cost too much?

    Patriots? Sure helps Brady makes 100% below market value. Who are the others? There are 5 other teams who have appeared in multiple Super Bowls since 1994 within 5 years of an appearance: Dallas, Denver (twice), Pittsburgh (went to 3 Super Bowls) the Giants and Seattle. It’s not a culture. It’s a QB and some other star players.

    There is basically one way to sustain success in this league over the long haul and it involves the wife of your star player making 50 million a year. Everyone is scrambling to pay stars and mix in youth and role players.

    And if the Seahawks had made that one play, these threads would have different titles.

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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:32 am
  • Seymour wrote:
    original poster wrote:Seymour have a look at the 2019 cap, it looks far brighter.

    They went for it all in 2017 at the expense of 2018 and it didn’t work out.

    Nobody on this planet would have been unhappy with it had it worked, and it very easily could have done if it wasn’t for a number of factors outside of their control.


    I appreciate the upbeat post, but we go from 46 players under contract to 22 players under contract in 2019 and have lost draft picks due to poor moves (actually 19 players if you remove McDowell, Lane, Chancellor) I see that as a whole different problem, not necessarily better for building a winning team. Also, many of those left will be near their careers end.

    We will have an average of $2.6M per player to fill those 31 spots to make the 53.



    I'm going to estimate the 2019 salary cap at $190M.

    22 players under contract already. leaving 29 roster spors that count against the cap to fill.

    With that said, it's almost a given that the following won't be on the team in 2019 - Michael Bennett, Jeremy Lane, Kam Chancellor and Jon Ryan.

    So actually, there's 18 players under contract, leaving 33 roster spots (not including the two free ones).

    Assuming a cap space of $190M that leaves the team with a staggering $114M to build the team. That's a lot...

    Dividing that up equally between all the players needing a roster spot makes it $3.45M per player, but obviously it doesn't work out like that.

    Lets assume 5 drafted players make the team in 2018, 2 UDFA's and 6 drafted players in 2019 with, again, 2 UDFA's.

    As a pretty accurate estimate, that'll cost the team about $12M in cap space for 2019. Now the team has 18 roster spots and $102M in cap space.

    Dividing that up equally again, and thats $5.66M per player, looking a lot better now.

    Obviously some of those will be vet minimum, lets say the Seahawks sign 4 vet minimums with 4-6 years experience and 1 with 7-9 years experience, that will cost the team exactly $4.075M.

    Now the cap space is at $97,925,000.

    Now thats $7.5M per player. 13 players earning $7.5M.

    Player 1 gets - $4M
    Player 2 gets $4M
    Player 3 gets $4.5M
    Player 4 gets $4.75M
    Player 5 gets $5.25M
    Player 6 gets $5.25M
    Player 7 gets $6M
    Player 8 gets $6.25M
    Player 9 gets $8M
    Player 10 gets $10.5M
    Player 11 gets $10.5M
    Player 12 gets $13M
    Player 13 gets $16M


    That would mean 7 players are earning over $10M a year, a fair amount of rookies some depth players are a good chunk of impact players.

    That MUST make you feel better about the team going forwards.

    I don't want people to think the Seahawks are in a downward trend due to their cap issues in 2018, the reality is, barring one single year, they are in a fantastic place to reload old talent and pay the existing rookies that are worthy and deserving of a second contract.

    It's no mistake that John has all this cap space in 2019 and firms up my belief that they are in a 2 year plan to churn the roster and still put out a truly fantastic team in 2018, 2019 and beyond.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Thu Feb 08, 2018 3:02 am
  • King Dog wrote:We're not gonna hit some drafts. Scotty McGloughlin is gone


    Pretty much. Schneider's overrated.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:29 am
  • Hawkfish wrote:It would seem to me that Russell Wilson is essentially on a 2 year prove it deal. if the Hawks are not going anywhere, I think paying him 25+ million per year on a new contract would be prohibitive. At that point, we likely are need of a major rebuild and quite likely Pete Caroll would retire necessitating hiring a new coach who may or may not feel Wilson is his guy.


    Russell Wilson prove it deal? The guy was in the MVP conversation through week 15 until the whole team **** the bed. He’s legit the only reason we won 9 games. Quite frankly, with any QB outside of Rodgers, this team probably wins 2 or 3 games.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:14 am
  • Couldn't help but laugh very loud when I read that. Prove it deal :roll:
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:51 am
  • IndyHawk wrote:That 23-30 million @QB really helps that formula crash and burn.
    I know it's not the only number that hurts but we have to start right there.


    Agree. And I'm not even saying the way we built the 2013 roster is the only way though either. Hitting another QB in the draft that could replace Russell is a clear longshot. But the fact is, we need to hit enough to keep the cap down and have not done well enough the last 5 years to accomplish that as we now see.
    In 2013 we had 5 players (more could be argued as well Kam was left out because of injury) we hit that saved the $68.7M in salary by today's standards.
    Looking at our top stars we got excellent play and cheap pay, they all came in 3 years.

    2010 Kam and Earl
    2011 Sherman and Baldwin
    2012 Wilson and Wagner

    2013-2017 nobody.

    That is a huge drop off from 6 in 3 to zero in the next 5, and not filling in top level roster spots costs you more and more $$ each year it doesn't happen. Now here we are overspending in FA and trades to fill in the roster.

    Ya, the thread title is a bit alarming I'll admit, but I'm alarmed that I now think all indications are this team is down to 7-9 to 9-7 for the next 2 years at least unless we hit a couple of upper level talent picks in the draft. And using our winning formula that assembled the roster (what we do know), the better the player, the more $$ you saved.
    Saving on mediocre starters saves less than half the $$, so hitting more of them takes double at best the qty to fill in the roster in FA and trades.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:15 am
  • original poster wrote:
    Seymour wrote:
    original poster wrote:Seymour have a look at the 2019 cap, it looks far brighter.

    They went for it all in 2017 at the expense of 2018 and it didn’t work out.

    Nobody on this planet would have been unhappy with it had it worked, and it very easily could have done if it wasn’t for a number of factors outside of their control.


    I appreciate the upbeat post, but we go from 46 players under contract to 22 players under contract in 2019 and have lost draft picks due to poor moves (actually 19 players if you remove McDowell, Lane, Chancellor) I see that as a whole different problem, not necessarily better for building a winning team. Also, many of those left will be near their careers end.

    We will have an average of $2.6M per player to fill those 31 spots to make the 53.



    I'm going to estimate the 2019 salary cap at $190M.

    22 players under contract already. leaving 29 roster spors that count against the cap to fill.

    With that said, it's almost a given that the following won't be on the team in 2019 - Michael Bennett, Jeremy Lane, Kam Chancellor and Jon Ryan.

    So actually, there's 18 players under contract, leaving 33 roster spots (not including the two free ones).

    Assuming a cap space of $190M that leaves the team with a staggering $114M to build the team. That's a lot...

    Dividing that up equally between all the players needing a roster spot makes it $3.45M per player, but obviously it doesn't work out like that.

    Lets assume 5 drafted players make the team in 2018, 2 UDFA's and 6 drafted players in 2019 with, again, 2 UDFA's.

    As a pretty accurate estimate, that'll cost the team about $12M in cap space for 2019. Now the team has 18 roster spots and $102M in cap space.

    Dividing that up equally again, and thats $5.66M per player, looking a lot better now.

    Obviously some of those will be vet minimum, lets say the Seahawks sign 4 vet minimums with 4-6 years experience and 1 with 7-9 years experience, that will cost the team exactly $4.075M.

    Now the cap space is at $97,925,000.

    Now thats $7.5M per player. 13 players earning $7.5M.

    Player 1 gets - $4M
    Player 2 gets $4M
    Player 3 gets $4.5M
    Player 4 gets $4.75M
    Player 5 gets $5.25M
    Player 6 gets $5.25M
    Player 7 gets $6M
    Player 8 gets $6.25M
    Player 9 gets $8M
    Player 10 gets $10.5M
    Player 11 gets $10.5M
    Player 12 gets $13M
    Player 13 gets $16M


    That would mean 7 players are earning over $10M a year, a fair amount of rookies some depth players are a good chunk of impact players.

    That MUST make you feel better about the team going forwards.

    I don't want people to think the Seahawks are in a downward trend due to their cap issues in 2018, the reality is, barring one single year, they are in a fantastic place to reload old talent and pay the existing rookies that are worthy and deserving of a second contract.

    It's no mistake that John has all this cap space in 2019 and firms up my belief that they are in a 2 year plan to churn the roster and still put out a truly fantastic team in 2018, 2019 and beyond.


    Excellent post and thank you for breaking that all down. Yes when you take the time to break it down, some advantages and scenarios are possible to find. Yes, to answer your point it does make me feel a bit better about 2019 with 1 exception. It still comes back to drafting well enough to fill in those 11 drafted and undrafted FA roster spots to work. To me, that would still be a big turn around over what I've seen in drafting the last 5 years, but I sure won't say impossible either. :2thumbs:
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:24 am
  • Sports Hernia wrote:BINGO!


    You can see how easy it is to ignore the basic truth that teams who succeed are paying their top players (especially the QB), and that's why they don't "succeed" for long.

    The team does need to draft better.. (its folly to think they can replicate the early years of the PC/JS era as a formula... but whatever) but I think it's illogical to think they made a mistake with the Wilson contract. Some of the others... debatable I suppose. The group went all in and didnt get it done. I think there were far more mistakes made with players who were not the big stars.

    The Harvin and Graham trades always irked me.. I get wanting to give RW weapons, but protection is what he needed. I have no issues with paying Bennett, Kam, ET and Sherman.

    The Brown and Richardson trades were just desperately trying to plug holes that shouldve been fixed awhile ago.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:25 am
  • You're welcome, and good.

    I do agree on the drafting front but I don't think the teams drafting has been as bad as many will have you believe. I know they haven't drafted any pro bowlers outside of Tyler Lockett in a few years, but they've got a good chunk of impact players at the same time.

    Frank Clark for example, is primed for the pro bowl next season. He's in a contract year. It's no easy position to be drafting this late in the last few drafts, with minimal first rounders and expect a stream of pro bowl talent.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:29 am
  • Hawkfish wrote:It would seem to me that Russell Wilson is essentially on a 2 year prove it deal. if the Hawks are not going anywhere, I think paying him 25+ million per year on a new contract would be prohibitive. At that point, we likely are need of a major rebuild and quite likely Pete Caroll would retire necessitating hiring a new coach who may or may not feel Wilson is his guy.



    OK... five seconds later "Proven." I am sure we will see several contract restructurings over the 2nd half of Russ' HOF career. I would love two more SB trips, but I am fairly confident there will be at least one more in his career here.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:55 am
  • original poster wrote:You're welcome, and good.

    I do agree on the drafting front but I don't think the teams drafting has been as bad as many will have you believe. I know they haven't drafted any pro bowlers outside of Tyler Lockett in a few years, but they've got a good chunk of impact players at the same time.

    Frank Clark for example, is primed for the pro bowl next season. He's in a contract year. It's no easy position to be drafting this late in the last few drafts, with minimal first rounders and expect a stream of pro bowl talent.


    I think the key we won by is in general laymens terms is excellent play with cheap pay or what was the total savings over his value in todays market? Clark is one that may come close to getting near the 2010-2012 mark in value, McDowell could be another (but still looks unlilely to me), Griffen still could be another one too.

    The 2013 scenario I laid out saved $68.7M in 5 roster spots to get enough $$ to fill in the roster to championship level. I don't have a magic number for todays team, but it's safe to say we need to do better and improve on drafting, and I think we all agree on that point.

    One could also argue that may require change somewhere that we have yet to see. Be it scouting changes, or draft parameter changes (like ones that don't eliminate Elliot from our RB board), or even ....yes....GM /Head coach changes could all turn that around.

    Also draft position being the main reason I would only say that it didn't stop 5 out of those 6 (everyone except Earl) from getting here.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:08 am
  • TwistedHusky wrote:We no longer have a great defense. We have a very good defense. But you cannot expect to get to a SB with a very good defense and a very average offense. I don't see that changing overnight especially with our cap situation and our draft picks pretty much gone.


    I would agree that 2018 is probably in the tank as far as a Super Bowl run (though of course the team will never, and shouldn't, admit that).

    However, 2017 wasn't a very good defense and a very average offense. It was a good defense and a below average offense. An average run game and OL changes that with Wilson behind center. So there is that hope to ride on, as small as it may be.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:34 am
  • MontanaHawk05 wrote:
    TwistedHusky wrote:We no longer have a great defense. We have a very good defense. But you cannot expect to get to a SB with a very good defense and a very average offense. I don't see that changing overnight especially with our cap situation and our draft picks pretty much gone.


    I would agree that 2018 is probably in the tank as far as a Super Bowl run (though of course the team will never, and shouldn't, admit that).

    However, 2017 wasn't a very good defense and a very average offense. It was a good defense and a below average offense. An average run game and OL changes that with Wilson behind center. So there is that hope to ride on, as small as it may be.


    The Eagles were 60-1 to win it at the start of last year... with Carson Wentz
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:35 am
  • I've been saying this forever. We went all in this year and shit the bed. This team will be doing jack shit the next 3-5 years. At least we found out late in the year that even with decent O-Line play Wilson blows without a running game.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:41 am
  • All of this presupposes we move into the draft--let alone next season--with the same team. We already have new coaches. We will likely go to work week 1 with Carson at RB. Watch for trades to collect draft capital and jettisoning contracts like Chancellor (and stop suggesting we ditch Bennett. He's still one of our most productive linemen for relatively little money. Don't pretend your concerns are financial).

    In a league where the Jaguars can go from three wins to the conference championship, and a second-year coach can lift a Lombardi with a backup QB, I say be patient. The game is long, and look how much we've already changed since Christmas.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:41 am
  • RCATES wrote:I've been saying this forever. We went all in this year and shit the bed. This team will be doing jack shit the next 3-5 years. At least we found out late in the year that even with decent O-Line play Wilson blows without a running game.


    This contributes nothing to the discussion and is repetitive and ignorant.
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Re: Our SB winning formula is toast
Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:50 am
  • WindCityHawk wrote:All of this presupposes we move into the draft--let alone next season--with the same team. We already have new coaches. We will likely go to work week 1 with Carson at RB. Watch for trades to collect draft capital and jettisoning contracts like Chancellor (and stop suggesting we ditch Bennett. He's still one of our most productive linemen for relatively little money. Don't pretend your concerns are financial).

    In a league where the Jaguars can go from three wins to the conference championship, and a second-year coach can lift a Lombardi with a backup QB, I say be patient.
    The game is long, and look how much we've already changed since Christmas.


    Good reminder. So should we be on year 1 of our 2nd year coach then? :twisted:

    Seriously though....those are exceptions more than rules about other ways of getting there, but at least it's some more reason for hope. :2thumbs:
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