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Duane Brown Extension Incoming?

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Duane Brown Extension Incoming?
Tue May 15, 2018 4:29 am
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    Seattle was pretty set at left tackle in the early days of the Pete Carroll & John Schneider era. In fact, their very first draft selection was for left tackle Russell Okung with the 6th overall selection of the 2010 NFL draft. Since his departure, however, things have been pretty bleak covering Russell Wilson’s blindside. The likes of Rees Odhiambo and George Fant on the left side are but a distant memory now that Brown is on the roster, however, he is now in a contract year and not currently under contract for the 2019 season and beyond, but we shouldn’t be concerned.

    As soon as the Seahawks traded for Duane back in October 2017 John Schneider said this –

    “We want him to finish his career here and have him be here for several more years,”

    This isn’t the only reference John has made to locking up Brown long term, either. He has made references to it several times this offseason. Anyone that knows John’s tendencies should know he doesn’t typically lie and if he says a player is getting an extension, that’s exactly what they will get.

    Duane seems very happy in the Pacific North West, too. I see no reason to believe he wouldn’t be on board with being locked up and finishing his career here, it seems like a match made in heaven. Given Bob McNair’s vile comments referring to players as ‘inmates’, it should come as no surprise Duane is happier in Seattle. Can you just imagine those words being uttered by Paul Allen? I can’t. There’s a level of respect within this organization and it shows.

    But what could the extension actually look like? We need to know two key things to determine this –

    How long will Duane be able to play at a competitive level?

    How does Duane rank amongst other players within his position group?

    Let’s start with how he ranks amongst left tackles in the NFL…

    Bleacher Report had him ranked as the 16th best LT in the NFL for the 2017 season.

    PFF had him ranked as the 27th best tackle (overall, not just left side)

    With the above it’s important to note that Duane didn’t play a whole lot in 2017, he held out from the Texans for the first several games and was playing injured for Seattle in the later part of the season.

    2016 had him ranked the 12th best left tackle in the NFL per Athlonsports.

    He was also ranked 12th best by Bleacher Report for the 2016 season, too.

    So it’s fair to say he’s not quite in the top 10 however he is very close to it and his contract will likely reflect that.

    Now, let’s take a look at the left tackle market and what sort of money the top guys are getting.

    #1 Nate Solder – Avg./Year = $15.5M - % GTD = 56.1%
    #2 Russell Okung – Avg./Year = $13.25M - % GTD = 47.2%
    #3 Trent Williams – Avg./Year = $13.2M - % GTD = 45.5%
    #4 Terron Armstead – Avg./Year = $13M - % GTD = 32.1%
    #5 Tyron Smith – Avg./Year = $12.2M - % GTD = 22.7%
    #6 David Bakhtiari – Avg./Year = $12M - % GTD = 33.3%
    #7 Eric Fisher – Avg./Year = $12M - % GTD = 45.8%
    #8 Cordy Glenn – Avg./Year = $12M - % GTD = 44.2%
    #9 Riley Reiff – Avg./Year = $11.75M - % GTD = 44.8%
    #10 Andrew Whitworth – Avg./Year = $11.25M - % GTD = 44.4%
    #11 Matt Kalil – Avg./Year = $11.1M - % GTD = 43.2%
    #12 Anthony Castonzo – Avg./Year = $10.95M - % GTD = 41.1%
    #13 Donald Penn – Avg./Year = $9.35M - % GTD = 47.1%
    #14 Charles Leno, Jr – Avg./Year = $9.25M - % GTD = 37%
    #15 Jason Peters – Avg./Year = $9.08M - % GTD = 40.4%
    #16 Duane Brown – Avg./Year = $8.9M - % GTD = 41.4%

    Based on all the above information, it would see Duane is currently somewhat underpaid.

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    He has also missed a total of 12 games (not including his holdout in 2017, that would be unfair) due to injury. 4 in 2010, 2 in 2013, 2 in 2015 and 4 in 2016. Overall, I’d say that’s pretty good going and the team should feel relatively confident giving him a decent amount of guaranteed money. Typically players will take less overall money for higher guarantees while teams typically prefer giving higher yearly amounts with lower guarantees so contract negotiations typically revolve around each side making their case for the percentage of guarantees, and just as importantly, when those guarantees are in place.

    My best guess on how a Duane Brown contract will look, at least in terms of the APY (average per year) number will either be somewhere in the high 10’s or low 11’s, let’s say $10.8M - $11.3M average per year. I’d bet good money on that being pretty accurate.

    So how about the duration of the contract? He is currently 32 years of age, turning 33 right before the season starts. My best guess is they will either do a 3 year or a 4-year extension so he will be around in Seattle for 4 or 5 more years (remember he’s still under contract for 2018). Having him play when he is 37 may seem alarming on the surface, however, this position group tend to perform just fine, Donald Penn, Joe Staley, and Andrew Whitworth are all prime examples of older LT's still locked up long term.


    To keep the cap flexible, and given he has proved to be pretty reliable in terms of injuries, I think the team will be happy to sign him to a 4-year extension that will keep him under contract through the 2022 season.

    Here is my prediction for the Duane Brown extension, broken down year by year and the cap numbers in each respective year.


    4 year extension
    $7,500,000 signing bonus
    $11,200,000 average per year
    47% guaranteed

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    The above has guarantees of the signing bonus, 100% of his base salary in 2018, 100% of his base in 2019 and $2.76M of his $10M base salary in 2020 guaranteed. 2021 and 2022 have zero guarantees apart from the prorated portion of his signing bonus.

    As you can see from the above, the guarantees drop off, therefore, making it possible for the team to cut him after the 2020 season and after the 2021 season and it not damage the cap considerably. They could also cut him after the 2019 season and it wouldn’t be a total disaster but that would likely only happen if he suffered a career-ending injury.

    I wouldn’t be at all surprised if John and his agent are already in initial talks surrounding an extension. If they’re not, I’d bet they will be starting very soon. I would expect the deal to get done before the regular season starts, early to mid-August would be my best guess.
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Re: Duane Brown Extension Incoming?
Tue May 15, 2018 5:03 am
  • How does the 8.5m cap hit compare to what he would get if he remains on his current contract?
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Re: Duane Brown Extension Incoming?
Tue May 15, 2018 6:28 am
  • UK_Seahawk wrote:How does the 8.5m cap hit compare to what he would get if he remains on his current contract?


    $1,250,000 less than it's due to be currently.
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Re: Duane Brown Extension Incoming?
Tue May 15, 2018 6:42 am
  • Great writeup! Thank you!
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Re: Duane Brown Extension Incoming?
Tue May 15, 2018 6:47 am
  • Very welcome!
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Re: Duane Brown Extension Incoming?
Tue May 15, 2018 7:26 am
  • I honestly don't think we have a choice with Brown, he's literally the only above average linemen on the entire line, and it's at the LT position.

    You don't extend him and this line just went from mediocre to downright terrible again after next year.
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Re: Duane Brown Extension Incoming?
Tue May 15, 2018 7:47 am
  • He's a very good lineman, get it done. LT is extremely important, especially on this team.
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Re: Duane Brown Extension Incoming?
Tue May 15, 2018 8:17 am
  • Sgt. Largent wrote:I honestly don't think we have a choice with Brown, he's literally the only above average linemen on the entire line, and it's at the LT position.

    You don't extend him and this line just went from mediocre to downright terrible again after next year.


    LOL. I guess you are not quite sold on Britt either.
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Re: Duane Brown Extension Incoming?
Tue May 15, 2018 8:22 am
  • I had hoped that spending draft capital on both Brown and Richardson would pay off with extensions. It didn't in Richardson's case, but we also had more quality depth on the Defensive line. As long as he's healthy, extending Brown is a no-brainer IMO.
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Re: Duane Brown Extension Incoming?
Tue May 15, 2018 8:35 am
  • Seymour wrote:
    Sgt. Largent wrote:I honestly don't think we have a choice with Brown, he's literally the only above average linemen on the entire line, and it's at the LT position.

    You don't extend him and this line just went from mediocre to downright terrible again after next year.


    LOL. I guess you are not quite sold on Britt either.


    I was until last year, he had a pretty big drop off.

    Hopefully Solari can get him back on track, cause we're going to have to make a decision on his contract after this year. Contract goes up and dead cap goes down after 2018.
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Re: Duane Brown Extension Incoming?
Tue May 15, 2018 8:43 am
  • Sgt. Largent wrote:
    Seymour wrote:
    Sgt. Largent wrote:I honestly don't think we have a choice with Brown, he's literally the only above average linemen on the entire line, and it's at the LT position.

    You don't extend him and this line just went from mediocre to downright terrible again after next year.


    LOL. I guess you are not quite sold on Britt either.


    I was until last year, he had a pretty big drop off.

    Hopefully Solari can get him back on track, cause we're going to have to make a decision on his contract after this year. Contract goes up and dead cap goes down after 2018.


    It doesn't make sense to cut Justin Britt until after the 2019 season.

    Dead money in 2019 - $5,833,334
    Cap savings in 2019 - $2,083,332

    Dead money in 2020 - $2,916,668
    Cap savings in 2020 - $8,750,000
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Re: Duane Brown Extension Incoming?
Tue May 15, 2018 9:19 am
  • original poster wrote:
    Sgt. Largent wrote:
    Seymour wrote:
    Sgt. Largent wrote:I honestly don't think we have a choice with Brown, he's literally the only above average linemen on the entire line, and it's at the LT position.

    You don't extend him and this line just went from mediocre to downright terrible again after next year.


    LOL. I guess you are not quite sold on Britt either.


    I was until last year, he had a pretty big drop off.

    Hopefully Solari can get him back on track, cause we're going to have to make a decision on his contract after this year. Contract goes up and dead cap goes down after 2018.


    It doesn't make sense to cut Justin Britt until after the 2019 season.

    Dead money in 2019 - $5,833,334
    Cap savings in 2019 - $2,083,332

    Dead money in 2020 - $2,916,668
    Cap savings in 2020 - $8,750,000


    I agree, I meant next year is when our plans for center will change if we don't think Britt is worth keeping going forward.

    But that's the good thing about Pocic, he already looks the part.
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Re: Duane Brown Extension Incoming?
Tue May 15, 2018 6:02 pm
  • I think we wait a bit and see what Solari thinks of who we have in place as of now and what they can really do when focused on A position so to speak. Talks may heat up by the end of August, we will know then by the reports if all the knob slobbering done before by other coaches is in fact reality when it comes to Fant and some others. If they see Fant as the future Brown won't be extended, if not three years with a team option out the 4th maybe. 36 is about the life cycle of a O lineman if they have been durable.
    Last edited by chris98251 on Tue May 15, 2018 9:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Duane Brown Extension Incoming?
Tue May 15, 2018 6:21 pm
  • Good analysis. My guess is it will take over 47% guarantee to extend him. Well over.
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Re: Duane Brown Extension Incoming?
Tue May 15, 2018 10:26 pm
  • LudwigsDrummer wrote:Good analysis. My guess is it will take over 47% guarantee to extend him. Well over.


    You think?

    I'd be surprised if they gave him the most (or second most GTD money behind Nate Solder) in honesty.

    Given his age, I wouldn't be comfortable with much more than I gave him above in honesty.
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Re: Duane Brown Extension Incoming?
Tue May 15, 2018 10:51 pm
  • chris98251 wrote:I think we wait a bit and see what Solari thinks of who we have in place as of now and what they can really do when focused on A position so to speak. Talks may heat up by the end of August, we will know then by the reports if all the knob slobbering done before by other coaches is in fact reality when it comes to Fant and some others. If they see Fant as the future Brown won't be extended, if not three years with a team option out the 4th maybe. 36 is about the life cycle of a O lineman if they have been durable.

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Re: Duane Brown Extension Incoming?
Wed May 16, 2018 3:51 am
  • He also declined after being traded here and will be 34 when a potential new contract starts, so I'd want to see him play multiple games under Solari before I make any decision about extending him.

    Frankly, the guy just rubs me the wrong way with the shots he took at the departing players this offseason, especially given that he held out on the Texans. He seems like someone who's only in it for the money and a guy like that has a high risk of mailing it in once he gets that final contract of his career.
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Re: Duane Brown Extension Incoming?
Wed May 16, 2018 8:15 am
  • ducks41468 wrote:He also declined after being traded here and will be 34 when a potential new contract starts, so I'd want to see him play multiple games under Solari before I make any decision about extending him.

    Frankly, the guy just rubs me the wrong way with the shots he took at the departing players this offseason, especially given that he held out on the Texans. He seems like someone who's only in it for the money and a guy like that has a high risk of mailing it in once he gets that final contract of his career.


    He declined what?

    Far as I know, we haven't offered him an official extension yet.
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Re: Duane Brown Extension Incoming?
Wed May 16, 2018 8:17 am
  • Sgt. Largent wrote:
    ducks41468 wrote:He also declined after being traded here and will be 34 when a potential new contract starts, so I'd want to see him play multiple games under Solari before I make any decision about extending him.

    Frankly, the guy just rubs me the wrong way with the shots he took at the departing players this offseason, especially given that he held out on the Texans. He seems like someone who's only in it for the money and a guy like that has a high risk of mailing it in once he gets that final contract of his career.


    He declined what?

    Far as I know, we haven't offered him an official extension yet.


    Although I'm not inclined to agree with the thought, I read that statement as he declined in ability, not as he declined an extension.
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Re: Duane Brown Extension Incoming?
Wed May 16, 2018 8:18 am
  • Sgt. Largent wrote:
    ducks41468 wrote:He also declined after being traded here and will be 34 when a potential new contract starts, so I'd want to see him play multiple games under Solari before I make any decision about extending him.

    Frankly, the guy just rubs me the wrong way with the shots he took at the departing players this offseason, especially given that he held out on the Texans. He seems like someone who's only in it for the money and a guy like that has a high risk of mailing it in once he gets that final contract of his career.


    He declined what?

    Far as I know, we haven't offered him an official extension yet.


    He's talking about ability, not declining an extension.

    He also didn't mention that Duane was injured with an ankle which explains the decline.
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Re: Duane Brown Extension Incoming?
Wed May 16, 2018 8:23 am
  • original poster wrote:
    Sgt. Largent wrote:
    ducks41468 wrote:He also declined after being traded here and will be 34 when a potential new contract starts, so I'd want to see him play multiple games under Solari before I make any decision about extending him.

    Frankly, the guy just rubs me the wrong way with the shots he took at the departing players this offseason, especially given that he held out on the Texans. He seems like someone who's only in it for the money and a guy like that has a high risk of mailing it in once he gets that final contract of his career.


    He declined what?

    Far as I know, we haven't offered him an official extension yet.


    He's talking about ability, not declining an extension.

    He also didn't mention that Duane was injured with an ankle which explains the decline.


    Gotcha.

    How many players who have held out came back and got injured or dinged up? Most do. It's almost impossible to hold out, come back, get thrown right into games and not get hurt.

    Dude played through a nasty ankle sprain, and was still the best O-lineman on our line. Which I know isn't saying much, but it's not a concern of mine if we're talking extension.

    like I said, what choice do we really have? Throw away another trade by letting a guy walk AND make our O-line terrible again?
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Re: Duane Brown Extension Incoming?
Wed May 16, 2018 8:26 am
  • Exactly.

    I'll sleep better at night knowing the LT job is locked down long term.
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Re: Duane Brown Extension Incoming?
Wed May 16, 2018 9:01 am
  • Another positive for getting the extension done is it allows us to be more flexible with the remaining linemen. If Fant is as good as the coaches want us to think, then he should easily supplant Ifedi on the right side of the ball, and if that's the case, we've now anchored both Tackle positions down. With Britt at Center, that leaves 2 guard jobs and depth for the remaining guys to compete for. If we don't extend Brown, not only is it a wasted trade investment, but we also weaken our line through attrition
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Re: Duane Brown Extension Incoming?
Wed May 16, 2018 9:46 am
  • They will probably wait to re-sign Brown, protecting themselves against the risk of injury and hoping his advanced age will depress his market value. But I would love to see it happen!
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