Elite

“The choice or best of anything considered collectively, as of a group or class of persons.”[align=][/align]

The above is a definition of the word elite in dictionary.com. I have seen lots of debate and opinions on this board regarding the status of Russell Wilson and even Pete Carroll as to whether or not either one is elite. I’m not sure we can even debate the merits of the elitness of a player or coach without first understanding what the term elite means.

In the definition provided, elite is the best of anything considered collectively. Using that definition, one has to take into consideration the pool from which the person is a participant in order to clearly define whether they are elite or not. What is not stated in the definition but plays a huge part in this discussion is what percentage of the pool is to be considered for elitness.

Russell Wilson consistently comes out in the top 5-8 of all QBs. Being a top 5 QB puts him in the top 15%. I have seen him rated as high as #3 in some lists. A #3 position puts him in the top 10%. In terms of production and importance to his team, he is a top QB. That in and of itself makes him elite within the pool of players that he is part of. The fact that a player is elite or not can only be based on the competition at their same position across the league. A player cannot be compared to players no longer playing or to an arbitrary preconceived notion of what a player should play like or how their physical measurable stack up.

What I think many fans determine elite to be is based less on a players rank within his own pool of players and more of a subjective analysis based on how they think a player should be. For example, most draft lists would put a player at 6’3” and a “prototypical “dropback passer as a more desirable draft pick than a 5’11” scrambling QB regardless of their on field productivity. This player bias plays into the psyche of coaches and fans alike and predetermines to an extent a players potential to be considered elite.

There is no formula to determine whether a player is elite other than how they stack up against their peers. Is Russell Wilson considered one of the best QBs in the NFL? Yes he is. Is he the best QB in the NFL. Probably not. That honor has to fall on Aaron Rogers and/or Tom Brady which makes them the elite of the elite. Maybe Russ isn’t elite, but he’s at the doorstep.

Excellent post. I dig the forward-thinking analysis. Player bias is a very real phenomenon. We all engage in it. From coaches and players to fans. If Russell was 6 foot 3, you would likely have three times the people collectively calling him elite than there are at the moment.

Now having said that, if Von Miller says Russell Wilson is elite, Russell Wilson is elite, period, end of story. :2thumbs:

It's less about height and more about consistency. Tom Brady doesn't have games like Russ vs Denver where he simply had a bad day.

If Russ can be more consistent - seeing and hitting open receivers instead of back-peddling into 22-yard sacks, then more people will consider him elite.

oldhawkfan":3qr9xv4e said:

Russell Wilson consistently comes out in the top 5-8 of all QBs. Being a top 5 QB puts him in the top 15%. I have seen him rated as high as #3 in some lists. A #3 position puts him in the top 10%.

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That's as a % of starting QBs. If you start allowing for the fact that most teams have 2+ QBs (and there are plenty out there without a job as well), you realise that he's not top 5 or 3 out of 32 QBs, but out of well over 70+ NFL QBs.

Tom Brady for sure has had bad games. Especially in his first 6 years. If a bad game for Wilson is throwing for 300 yards, 3 TDs (with none of those being in stat padding time) I’ll take that any day from my QB.

Also, let’s look at Aaron Rodgers last game. How would the narrative have shifted this week if Kyle Fuller didn’t drop that gift wrapped INT thrown by Rodgers on his game winning drive?

KiwiHawk":217akr77 said:

It's less about height and more about consistency. Tom Brady doesn't have games like Russ vs Denver where he simply had a bad day.

If Russ can be more consistent - seeing and hitting open receivers instead of back-peddling into 22-yard sacks, then more people will consider him elite.

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Tom Brady crapped the bed in the opener against KC last year, at home. He completed less than 45% of his passes, was sacked three times, and didn't throw a TD.

He also had a terrible game at the Dolphins last year, and the road games against the Jets and Bills weren't pretty either.

In 2016 Brady didn't play well against the Seahawks (odd that you don't remember this game) or the Broncos. He played horrible in the playoff game against Houston that year.

In 2015, he had bad games against the Bills, Philly, Miami, and the Jets. He played terrible against Denver in the playoffs.

In 2014, he had bad games against Miami, KC, the Jets, and the Bills (at least until they shut that one day).

Note that in all of these bad games, Brady played somewhat to much worse than what Wilson did against the Broncos. And we can go back every year and find games in which Brady did not play well, including playoff games. Every quarterback has bad games.

And I'd also like to point out that the "win everything Patriots" have only managed two Super Bowl wins in the last 13 seasons.

Wilson will lead all QBs in sacks this year.,half will be his fault because he can't find open receivers while doing those stupid spin moves. And before everyone blames the OL for everything remember it's hard to protect Wilson when he changes plays in his mind but doesn't tell the rest of the offense LOL. I would take Brady--Rodgers--Brees ---or even Rivers over Wilson any day. They are ELITE because they are consistant. Wilson is consistently inconsistent . :irishdrinkers:

xray":34we1luw said:

Wilson will lead all QBs in sacks this year.,half will be his fault because he can't find open receivers while doing those stupid spin moves. And before everyone blames the OL for everything remember it's hard to protect Wilson when he changes plays in his mind but doesn't tell the rest of the offense LOL. I would take Brady--Rodgers--Brees ---or even Rivers over Wilson any day. They are ELITE because they are consistant. Wilson is consistently inconsistent . :irishdrinkers:

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Your goal is pretty obvious at this point.

mistaowen":br8c21sj said:

Your goal is pretty obvious at this point.

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And that is why I love the Ignore feature on this site.

xray":9frvikzp said:

Wilson will lead all QBs in sacks this year.,half will be his fault because he can't find open receivers while doing those stupid spin moves. And before everyone blames the OL for everything remember it's hard to protect Wilson when he changes plays in his mind but doesn't tell the rest of the offense LOL. I would take Brady--Rodgers--Brees ---or even Rivers over Wilson any day. They are ELITE because they are consistant. Wilson is consistently inconsistent . :irishdrinkers:

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Wilson will make you eat those words just like he does to everyone else that doubts him. I suspect you will not stay out of the closet long.
Must be hell watching "the team you like" suffer so much with a shitty QB. :snack:

Elite is a subjective assessment.

But if you are going to use it as a validation for:

future compensation

future planning

setting existing expectations


Then you probably better define it.

As the numbers indicate, Wilson is better than most of the #1 overall QB picks in the game that teams chose with the hope they would be the franchise QB. By that standard, he is elite.

However, there is a subset of QBs that can produce in spite of the holes in their team, that produce consistently, and are the primary focal point of the offense yet still consistently produce above average results. By that standard, he is nowhere near these elite QBs. Qbs like Brees, Rodgers and Brady are the only ones you can put in this group.

And there is another group of QBs that have never had the teams that Wilson was gifted with (specifically the historic defenses) that are better QBs than Wilson. This is a small group, however. Rivers is one, and given what Ryan did last year I don't think you can argue he deserves to be.

Then you have guys like Wentz who nobody knows is good or bad because the sample size is too small.

Is Wilson a top 5 QB? maybe. Is that elite? Depends on your definition.

Can you depend on Brees, Rodgers or Brady to produce above-average results even when they are losing players, missing pieces or faces with difficult circumstances? Absolutely.

Can you depend on Wilson to produce above-average overall results in any particular game or over the course of the season? Not really.

So he is elite but not-dependable elite which is the point of wanting an elite QB. You can, however, depend on people to make excuses for why he isn't producing and at least 50% of the time those excuses are valid. I still think that Wilson will be a much better QB when he finds a coach that wants to focus on maximizing his scoring. I think Pete is holding Wilson back but regardless, we have Wilson and we have Pete.

TwistedHusky":2sizvbue said:

However, there is a subset of QBs that can produce in spite of the holes in their team, that produce consistently, and are the primary focal point of the offense yet still consistently produce above average results. By that standard, he is nowhere near these elite QBs. Qbs like Brees, Rodgers and Brady are the only ones you can put in this group.



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Your argument about a subset of QBs that can produce despite holes in their team describes Wilson perfectly. Last year the o line was historically bad, there was no running game, yet he led the league in TDS and despite a horrific kicker could have had 11 wins and a playoff berth. And this was with a defense that lost numerous stars to season ending injuries. No other QB could have carried his team like he did last year. Yep, elite!

oldhawkfan":1bjb45ql said:

Your argument about a subset of QBs that can produce despite holes in their team describes Wilson perfectly. Last year the o line was historically bad, there was no running game, yet he led the league in TDS and despite a horrific kicker could have had 11 wins and a playoff berth. And this was with a defense that lost numerous stars to season ending injuries. No other QB could have carried his team like he did last year. Yep, elite!

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Trade the bum!

Carrying the team to crappy production numbers might be 'carrying' but it is not carrying the team.

We had plenty of holes. Wilson was 90% of the offense. But he was 90% of a historically crappy offense.

The guys that Brady, Rodgers, and even Rivers might have a bad game or two but even with little help - they always produce effective results over the season. Wilson does not do this. Not reliably.

But part of this is the coaching staff, by considering him elite, forces him into a system. They then expect him to produce outside of the system regularly when the system does not work.

We would never gut an OL and be OK with it because ' the QB can just run around and make plays' with most other QBs. And I doubt we would insist on these offense that consist of poor % deep shots because 'Wilson can bring us back later if we get behind doing this' mentality would no longer be there.

But just going on results, and elite QBs produce results not excuses, they are not being delivered consistently with above average production. But if you want him to be an elite QB with spotty production but not a lot of help? Sure.

TwistedHusky":3sk1sdxz said:

Carrying the team to crappy production numbers might be 'carrying' but it is not carrying the team.

We had plenty of holes. Wilson was 90% of the offense. But he was 90% of a historically crappy offense.

The guys that Brady, Rodgers, and even Rivers might have a bad game or two but even with little help - they always produce effective results over the season. Wilson does not do this. Not reliably.

But part of this is the coaching staff, by considering him elite, forces him into a system. They then expect him to produce outside of the system regularly when the system does not work.

We would never gut an OL and be OK with it because ' the QB can just run around and make plays' with most other QBs. And I doubt we would insist on these offense that consist of poor % deep shots because 'Wilson can bring us back later if we get behind doing this' mentality would no longer be there.

But just going on results, and elite QBs produce results not excuses, they are not being delivered consistently with above average production. But if you want him to be an elite QB with spotty production but not a lot of help? Sure.

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You are arguing that he doesn't consistently produce. Here are his career numbers in QB Rating, TDs, completion %:

Year Rating TDs Completion %
2012 100 26 64.1
2013 101.2 26 63.1
2014 95 20 63.1
2015 110.1 34 68.1
2016 92.6 21 64.7
2017 95.4 34 61.3
2018 (1 game) 92.7 3 57.6
Career 98.7 164 64

I really don't get where the inconsistent argument comes from. This guy is nothing but consistent. He is not a prototypical QB. There have been thousands of QBs throughout the years that fit with the measurables but didn't have the careers. I think if people would quit looking at him as not fitting into the preconceived notion of what a QB should look like and perform, they might enjoy the games a little more.

TwistedHusky":1gdmufw6 said:

Can you depend on Brees, Rodgers or Brady to produce above-average results even when they are losing players, missing pieces or faces with difficult circumstances? Absolutely.
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I think this belies a deeper question which is "How much margin of error does a QB provide the rest of the team". For Brees, especially Brees, it didn't matter how good he was given the rest of his team was trash for quite a spell and currently might be. So it's great to have a Drew Brees but if the entire team is kind of built around facilitating his maximum output and you have a terrible, no good defense, the margin of error Brees provides is, well, nulled.

Brady plays with a more complete team and always has. Sure, the Pats are rarely world beaters on defense but they've rarely ever been so bad on defense that it nullifies what Brady can do over the course of a season. And they're rarely so bad that an off game by Brady is certain doom. Rodgers is somewhere in between Brees and Brady on this spectrum where his teams haven't been as threadbare as the Saints but they are so much more obviously hanging on the whims of his performance than Brady.

All of this is to say that I don't think the question of qualitative value rests on how great the individual QB is but rather, how much margin of error do they provide to their respective teams and do their respective teams have any wherewithal to operate in that margin of error?

To superimpose this on RW now - I don't think RW provides nearly the same margin of error to operate in but is more than capable as part of a holistic team build and provides a heroic edge that some other QBs in that same realm can't. Taking in salary considerations at this point, what is a QB like that worth to our team and is it the right fit going forward? What is the market rate for QBs in that realm and their demand across the league?

I think that Peyton Manning's career and Andrew Luck's career is somewhat instructive on the question - how bad can the rest of the team be weighed against your QB's talents to find success. Peyton worked it well enough, Drew Luck did not, but the Colts various FOs seemed to think the blueprint was a walk in the park. It hasn't been.

I think the best comparison at the moment would be Kirk Cousins - someone who seemingly has his own set of issues with making integral mistakes at key times but having a lot of potential talent there. He's on a team with a good defense but commands quite a bit more dosh. Is Cousins worth that much more than RW? This is where we're at in the NFL.

Also, this is related but I think our entire 2015-2017 experience shows you just can't miss in the draft to the extent the Hawks did at various position groups. They say the draft is a crapshoot but...RW's salary isn't an excuse to miss that much. Even within the realm of trades and free agent acquisitions the guys they did rope in didn't work out nearly as well as hoped and yet, RW's 2nd contract salary didn't limit the options there as much as some would believe - for every million in RW's salary there was a subpar Free Agent or Trade who was doing worse with their million. If anything RW's salary reduced the margin for error with outside acquisitions but had no bearing on the dead weight losses we took on the free agents and trades available. We could have signed 7 Million Joeckles for 1$ and be none the better for it.

oldhawkfan":8fpt8gad said:

Your argument about a subset of QBs that can produce despite holes in their team describes Wilson perfectly. Last year the o line was historically bad, there was no running game, yet he led the league in TDS and despite a horrific kicker could have had 11 wins and a playoff berth. And this was with a defense that lost numerous stars to season ending injuries. No other QB could have carried his team like he did last year. Yep, elite!

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If you can count "almost" wins, do you also count "almost" losses? What if Cooper Kupp doesn't drop the game-winning touchdown pass that hit him in the hands in the first Rams game? Don't play the hypothetical game, it's a slippery slope, and the sword swings both ways.

Aros":zpw0dx69 said:

Excellent post. I dig the forward-thinking analysis. Player bias is a very real phenomenon. We all engage in it. From coaches and players to fans. If Russell was 6 foot 3, you would likely have three times the people collectively calling him elite than there are at the moment.

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This is absolute nonsense. Brees is similar in stature to Wilson and he's been regarded as elite for over a decade. People don't care about Wilson's height, they care about the painful-obvious limitations his height causes and his poor fundamentals.

Good point about Brees... He's obviously better than Wilson and still the Saints haven't made it past the divisional round for ages. This is a roster construction problem. Even the Pack hasn't made it past the NFCCG for what seven years.

JimmyG":281jsya7 said:

Aros":281jsya7 said:

Excellent post. I dig the forward-thinking analysis. Player bias is a very real phenomenon. We all engage in it. From coaches and players to fans. If Russell was 6 foot 3, you would likely have three times the people collectively calling him elite than there are at the moment.

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This is absolute nonsense. Brees is similar in stature to Wilson and he's been regarded as elite for over a decade. People don't care about Wilson's height, they care about the painful-obvious limitations his height causes and his poor fundamentals.

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This is Brees 18th year in the league. If he’s been “regarded as elite for over a decade” then he started to hit elite status somewhere around his 8th year in the league. This is year 7 for Wilson. I guess he’s at least where Brees was a decade ago. If not elite yet he’s well on his way.