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Turnovers
Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:44 pm
  • Pete always stresses turnovers and differentials. It's good to see Hawks 2nd in the league in these three categories:

    Interceptions
    Turnovers
    Turnover Differential

    http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/givetake/sort/takeTotal
    "You don't always get to play playoff games at home, or conference championships at home, or superbowls at home. You have to have the mindset that you can play to your potential wherever you are." - Pete Carroll
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    nwHawk
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Re: Turnovers
Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:52 pm
  • Loving these stats along with the red zone stat mentioned in another thread...

    With all the noise, all the departures, it's clear that this team is still buying in. The championship mentality has never left. We may be a year or two away but make no mistake...

    The Seahawks will be a powerhouse once again sooner than some think.
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    "Shaquem Griffin tells ESPN after he got drafted by Seattle; 'I can't breathe.' That's the only time you'll hear him say he can't do something." - Dan Wetzel via Twitter.
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    Aros
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Re: Turnovers
Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:33 am
  • Aros wrote:Loving these stats along with the red zone stat mentioned in another thread...

    With all the noise, all the departures, it's clear that this team is still buying in. The championship mentality has never left. We may be a year or two away but make no mistake...

    The Seahawks will be a powerhouse once again sooner than some think.


    IF they hit on some great drafts. Poor drafting is a big reason the window slammed shut.
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Re: Turnovers
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:17 am
  • nwHawk wrote:Pete always stresses turnovers and differentials. It's good to see Hawks 2nd in the league in these three categories:

    Interceptions
    Turnovers
    Turnover Differential

    http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/givetake/sort/takeTotal


    One one hand that is very nice to see alright, on the other hand it's discouraging to know that even with top 3 in turnovers, our record of 2-3 is disappointing given the competition we've played. If we were just average on turnovers, we'd be in serious bad shape record wise.
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Re: Turnovers
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:30 am
  • Seymour wrote:
    nwHawk wrote:Pete always stresses turnovers and differentials. It's good to see Hawks 2nd in the league in these three categories:

    Interceptions
    Turnovers
    Turnover Differential

    http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/givetake/sort/takeTotal


    One one hand that is very nice to see alright, on the other hand it's discouraging to know that even with top 3 in turnovers, our record of 2-3 is disappointing given the competition we've played. If we were just average on turnovers, we'd be in serious bad shape record wise.


    According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA, the Seahawks have played the 4th hardest schedule in the NFL through five weeks.

    That factors in playing three road games (in the first four weeks) but doesn’t take into account some of the intangibles, like that the Denver Broncos have been virtually unbeatable in home openers (which has something to do with heat and altitude). Or that they then had to travel to Chicago to play on MNF. Chicago is actually the #2 DVOA team with the #1 defense. Rams are #1 overall, thanks to their #1 offense, obviously.
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Re: Turnovers
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:38 am
  • Gonna be that hater and splash some statistical cold water on things. :lol:

    (1) Turnover differential, as much or more than any stat in the NFL, ends up regressing toward the mean over time. What this means is that on average the teams with the best and worst turnover differentials each year end up at around 0 (the mean for a differential) the following year. For small sample sizes like a quarter of a season we'd expect a similar regression to the mean.

    (2) Likewise, statistically red zone offense just ends up being a fairly noisy (due to small sample size) alternative measurement of overall offensive ability -- over time red zone offense regresses to the per-team mean of overall offensive performance. What this means is that team with great offensive performance outside the 20s and bad offensive performance in the red zone doesn't really have anything to worry about -- it's just a small sample size and over time they're red zone performance will normalize. The same is true with a bad offense with great red zone performance -- their red zone performance will decrease over time because the offense isn't good.

    As for #2 I'm NOT saying the Seahawks have a "good" or a "bad" offense this year (we don't have enough games to know that yet AT ALL), but fans shouldn't pin their hopes on turnover differential or red zone performance, as these are both NOTORIOUSLY unstable statistics over time.
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Re: Turnovers
Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:15 am
  • Especially encouraged with the rapid improvement of Tre Flowers. He's already showing a very natural feel for his position and appears to be nailing down his technique. While he doesn't have any of the turnovers yet, he's responsible for two of them (Clark last week and Earl's leg pick two weeks ago). Both from a flawless trail technique where he's shown the ability to play the ball without draping an arm around the receiver drawing DPI calls.

    Flowers is already looking like our next CB stud. He's picking up the position quite well. Just wish Sherman was here to impart his next level DB knowledge. He's the best I've ever seen at that.
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    Attyla the Hawk
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Re: Turnovers
Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:41 am
  • Beat me to it pops. Turnovers are largely random so having a defense that relies on them to stay afloat is not a winning strategy BUT when they come you take em and run.
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Re: Turnovers
Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:59 am
  • adeltaY wrote:Beat me to it pops. Turnovers are largely random so having a defense that relies on them to stay afloat is not a winning strategy BUT when they come you take em and run.


    Turnovers can certainly be emphasized, though, and ways to get them can be taught. Sure, there is a sense of randomness, but one can also influence their chance of occurring. Teams that do this, plan for it, and scheme to make it happen are more likely to get them.
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    Ad Hawk
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Re: Turnovers
Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:02 am
  • adeltaY wrote:Beat me to it pops. Turnovers are largely random so having a defense that relies on them to stay afloat is not a winning strategy BUT when they come you take em and run.


    Oh yeah, absolutely. There's not a Super Bowl winning team in the history of the NFL who didn't benefit from the luck of randomness.

    With sixteen game seasons and one-and-done playoffs it has just never ever happened before. :2thumbs:
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Re: Turnovers
Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:05 am
  • [quote="Popeyejones"]Gonna be that hater and splash some statistical cold water on things. :lol:

    When you claim you are going to use statistics to "prove" your point and then just state your opinion without using statistics to "prove" your point, you do not really "prove" your point.
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Re: Turnovers
Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:26 am
  • LeaveLynchAlone wrote:
    Popeyejones wrote:Gonna be that hater and splash some statistical cold water on things. :lol:

    When you claim you are going to use statistics to "prove" your point and then just state your opinion without using statistics to "prove" your point, you do not really "prove" your point.

    Zing! 8)
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Re: Turnovers
Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:31 am
  • LeaveLynchAlone wrote:
    Popeyejones wrote:Gonna be that hater and splash some statistical cold water on things. :lol:


    When you claim you are going to use statistics to "prove" your point and then just state your opinion without using statistics to "prove" your point, you do not really "prove" your point.


    (1) I didn't claim that I was "going to use statistics to 'prove' [my] point." I also don't know why you're putting "prove" in scare quotes three times in one sentence when I never claimed I was going to prove anything.

    Rather, I was relaying what's generally known about regression to the mean for things like turnover differential and red zone offense.

    (2) If you're asking for links backing up what I was relaying, yeah, sure, of course. Getting all persnickety is a funny way to ask, though. :lol:

    https://drbobsports.com/2016-nfl-turnover-luck/
    https://nflcapping.wordpress.com/2016/0 ... n-the-nfl/
    https://www.thescore.com/nfl/news/1366805


    Now I think you write back and say thanks for the links? ;) :2thumbs:
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