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How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)

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What is the maximum you pay Russell under Pete Carroll

$34M + Pay him what it takes
25
20%
$30-$34M
35
28%
$26-$30M
32
26%
$20-$26M
16
13%
Trade him -- I'll take my chances to replace him
17
14%
 
Total votes : 125

How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)
Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:19 am
  • There is a wide variety of opinions on Russell Wilson and his value here and for good reason. Next season Russell is in the last year of his current contract and likely will be extended. His current contract pays an average annual salary of $21,900,000 (that was set at $100K under Rodgers contract at the time)
    Assuming Pete Carroll stays at least 2 years of Russell's new contract (important with emphasis on run game), where do you draw the line of the maximum you would pay to keep Wilson here beyond 2019.

    Here are what other QB's that have done deals within the last year or so are making...

    Aaron Rodgers average annual salary of $33,500,000
    Matt Ryan average annual salary of $30,000,000
    Kirk Cousins average annual salary of $28,000,000
    Drew Brees average annual salary of $25,000,000
    Case Keenum average annual salary of $18,000,000
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  • Make him the highest paid qb. Whatever it takes to keep him.
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  • Russell's an interesting case study for the QB market.

    Because what drives up a QB's contract is what his value would be on the open market, so the question is how many teams would break the bank to sign Russell if he got to FA?

    My guess is enough to have to pay him 34M+, or else he won't sign an extension if we try to lowball him or not make him the highest paid QB as you'd suspect he'd want.

    So IMO we don't have a choice unless we can draft a QB we trust to take over in next year's draft.
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  • The key to me is Pete. If you pay your QB $34M + (even over 30M really), then you need to support him with enough weapons and protection to get your $$ worth out of him. If you don't, you wasted your $$ because this is like running your Ferrari on re-tread or bald tires.
    I don't think Pete will do that as defense is his #1 priority. So under Pete he has a fixed lessor value IMO.
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  • If we make him the highest paid QB, we are knee-capping ourselves.

    He isn't terrible. He is a good QB.

    But he does not produce reliably and consistently. And ultimately, with the impact his salary will have - this team will be thin or green at numerous positions for years. He is certainly in the top ten but paying him money like he is in the top 3 is going to hamstring us for years.

    He is probably worth $20M per.

    Also, while he is a very good QB - his impact on a game is mitigated by the way Carroll chooses to use him. So a lesser QB, while nowhere near as effective could have a very similar impact on the same games. Because Wilson is barely doing anything anyway, he is almost a 3rd option right now. (which is weird).

    So why pay him as if he is the primary?

    I don't know if there is a good ending to this story. I see us getting stuck with Wilson, saddled with a 30M a year salary and sitting about .500 for the next few years. Especially as we find it hard to pay people and lose them to FA. We may get a few wildcard games sprinkled in here and there when we have years like this year - but otherwise there probably is little upside.

    Our drafts have been OK but we will see an exodus of our experienced players and the next few years will be pretty blah accordingly. I am not expecting much but if we sign him, we probably have that future awaiting us.
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Re: How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)
Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:07 am
  • TwistedHusky wrote:He is probably worth $20M per.



    In today's NFL where Blake Bortles gets $20mil this year, I think your just a taaaaaaaaaaad bit off.
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Re: How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)
Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:09 am
  • Part of me agrees with Twisted. As long as Pete is here, I don't see getting the value from a $30M+ QB with our emphasis on running and ball control. I'm reaching the point that I think we may have a better shot at a title with a QB on a rookie deal, top 3 Defense, and a bell cow top 3 RB. Near impossible to do all that paying your QB 34M.

    Pete + Russell = not good fit IMO. I think Pete may possibly be thinking that too. For the first time, he is beginning to call out Russell and his mistakes in the press. I don't see him calling out other players, just Russell.

    Now with on offensive minded HC, that all would change obviously.
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Re: How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)
Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:21 am
  • Seymour wrote:The key to me is Pete. If you pay your QB $34M + (even over 30M really), then you need to support him with enough weapons and protection to get your $$ worth out of him. If you don't, you wasted your $$ because this is like running your Ferrari on re-tread or bald tires.
    I don't think Pete will do that as defense is his #1 priority. So under Pete he has a fixed lessor value IMO.


    I wouldn't even say you need to support him with weapons per se (that's part of it, and we can look at how Sean Payton has always been cognizant of maximizing Drew's output by keeping a stable of above average or better position players, even if the defense suffers by proxy) but to actually fundamentally alter the way he looks at passing strategy and tactics. To me it seems like Pete has always been reluctant to go all in on a dynamic and integral passing game - it's just at odds with what he views as winning football.

    Perhaps the situation is as such - RW @ 30-34M per year is likely the going rate for someone of RW's caliber given the other market participants bank. And among those other market participants, many would see and try to utilize RW in a more cogent passing attack because it's Plan A instead of Plan B. Basically RW is worth what other market participants are willing to pay because he will be an absolutely foundational part of the offense and might even get more of a hand in crafting that offense.

    But Pete who seems to love him because he is generally less catastrophic mistake prone to other QBs and can individually put out an execution failure by other teammates and can throw a beautiful deep ball, he might not be worth that. Oh and Wilson's personality meshes with Pete's to a T which I think is one of the intangible factors when it comes to contract negotiations. Wilson might not be everything that the team needs in execution but he certainly is the exact kind of player Pete digs and wants to keep around because of attitude.

    The damning thing here is trying to reconcile the value what we might view as ancillary like attitude - is the 4M difference 34M vs. 30M per year worth it because RW turns Pete's crank and is everything Pete wants in a team leader?

    By the same token, what if PC just turns RW's crank as a player and he really enjoys working with him even if it isn't all glory all the time.

    I think the bottom line is that forward looking performance and making RW a foundational aspect of means a lot more to other teams than it does to the Hawks. But the leadership and attitude aspects mean a lot more to Pete than other teams.
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Re: How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)
Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:23 am
  • Seymour wrote:The key to me is Pete. If you pay your QB $34M + (even over 30M really), then you need to support him with enough weapons and protection to get your $$ worth out of him. If you don't, you wasted your $$ because this is like running your Ferrari on re-tread or bald tires.
    I don't think Pete will do that as defense is his #1 priority. So under Pete he has a fixed lessor value IMO.


    While I agree, Pete and John paid Russell the first time around, what makes you think they wouldn't do it again?

    Because again, the alternative is for them to go on another search for a franchise QB, develop that QB and hope it works out..........all while they're also on the last couple years of their deal, and Pete's 67 years old.

    Your math is right Seymour, but as a franchise you have to have a successful alternative/gameplan if you're not going to extend your franchise QB.
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Re: How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)
Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:29 am
  • TwistedHusky wrote:If we make him the highest paid QB, we are knee-capping ourselves.

    He isn't terrible. He is a good QB.

    But he does not produce reliably and consistently. And ultimately, with the impact his salary will have - this team will be thin or green at numerous positions for years. He is certainly in the top ten but paying him money like he is in the top 3 is going to hamstring us for years.

    He is probably worth $20M per.

    Also, while he is a very good QB - his impact on a game is mitigated by the way Carroll chooses to use him. So a lesser QB, while nowhere near as effective could have a very similar impact on the same games. Because Wilson is barely doing anything anyway, he is almost a 3rd option right now. (which is weird).

    So why pay him as if he is the primary?

    I don't know if there is a good ending to this story. I see us getting stuck with Wilson, saddled with a 30M a year salary and sitting about .500 for the next few years. Especially as we find it hard to pay people and lose them to FA. We may get a few wildcard games sprinkled in here and there when we have years like this year - but otherwise there probably is little upside.

    Our drafts have been OK but we will see an exodus of our experienced players and the next few years will be pretty blah accordingly. I am not expecting much but if we sign him, we probably have that future awaiting us.


    You know what would also help vis a vis salary cap is not burning FA money or absorb salary on a trade for bums that suck. The margin for error is lower with a higher QB cap% but...bungling many other contracts simultaneously hurts as well. I get that Pete loves lost puppies and yes I'm still kind of bent about the whole Joeckle fiasco but that dude cleared 9M on a rehab rental where he sucked. Just because the QB clocks the highest paycheck doesn't mean his contract is the thing that subverts the entire team - it could be a collection of midrange gaffes that eclipse the total salary of the QB and don't even sniff a rough approximation in value contributed.
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Re: How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)
Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:39 am
  • TwistedHusky wrote:
    So why pay him as if he is the primary?.


    Because the alternative is to risk not finding another top 10 franchise QB..................AND more importantly during the middle of a rebuild where you desperately need a veteran top 10 QB to run your offense while you're trying to rebuild the defense to get back to the SB.

    I get the "Russell's not worth 34M+," I do. So what's your plan if you trade him or let him walk?
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Re: How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)
Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:43 am
  • Sgt. Largent wrote:
    Seymour wrote:The key to me is Pete. If you pay your QB $34M + (even over 30M really), then you need to support him with enough weapons and protection to get your $$ worth out of him. If you don't, you wasted your $$ because this is like running your Ferrari on re-tread or bald tires.
    I don't think Pete will do that as defense is his #1 priority. So under Pete he has a fixed lessor value IMO.


    While I agree, Pete and John paid Russell the first time around, what makes you think they wouldn't do it again?

    Because again, the alternative is for them to go on another search for a franchise QB, develop that QB and hope it works out..........all while they're also on the last couple years of their deal, and Pete's 67 years old.

    Your math is right Seymour, but as a franchise you have to have a successful alternative/gameplan if you're not going to extend your franchise QB.


    Wilson has shown his ceiling now, where as on his rookie deal it was still relatively unknown for one. For another, all GM's need to think long and hard now as the QB is taking a higher % of the cap than ever. Yes, the cap has gone up, but the QB salaries have gone up even more the last 2 years.

    I don't think "Pete wouldn't do it". I just think he may be questioning it or has at least lowered the rate further below Rodgers possibly.
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Re: How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)
Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:48 am
  • TwistedHusky wrote:Also, while he is a very good QB - his impact on a game is mitigated by the way Carroll chooses to use him. So a lesser QB, while nowhere near as effective could have a very similar impact on the same games. Because Wilson is barely doing anything anyway, he is almost a 3rd option right now. (which is weird).


    It certainly worked out when we had a good-and-improving defense, Beastmode, and Tavaris Jackson. There was no notable difference at all when we went away from him and brought in RW. Or Matt Flynn. This team worked pretty much exactly the same with any one of those three.

    Oh wait, that's not how it worked at all.

    What is wrong with you people, anyway? :roll:
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Re: How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)
Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:50 am
  • Sgt. Largent wrote:
    TwistedHusky wrote:
    So why pay him as if he is the primary?.


    Because the alternative is to risk not finding another top 10 franchise QB..................AND more importantly during the middle of a rebuild where you desperately need a veteran top 10 QB to run your offense while you're trying to rebuild the defense to get back to the SB.

    I get the "Russell's not worth 34M+," I do. So what's your plan if you trade him or let him walk?


    I think for this discussion, it's best to just say trade him and take your chances with a cheap rookie game manager QB. Trying to make someone "have a plan in place with player X", limits the conversation too much IMO.
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Re: How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)
Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:50 am
  • Seymour wrote:
    Sgt. Largent wrote:
    Seymour wrote:The key to me is Pete. If you pay your QB $34M + (even over 30M really), then you need to support him with enough weapons and protection to get your $$ worth out of him. If you don't, you wasted your $$ because this is like running your Ferrari on re-tread or bald tires.
    I don't think Pete will do that as defense is his #1 priority. So under Pete he has a fixed lessor value IMO.


    While I agree, Pete and John paid Russell the first time around, what makes you think they wouldn't do it again?

    Because again, the alternative is for them to go on another search for a franchise QB, develop that QB and hope it works out..........all while they're also on the last couple years of their deal, and Pete's 67 years old.

    Your math is right Seymour, but as a franchise you have to have a successful alternative/gameplan if you're not going to extend your franchise QB.


    Wilson has shown his ceiling now, where as on his rookie deal it was still relatively unknown for one. For another, all GM's need to think long and hard now as the QB is taking a higher % of the cap than ever. Yes, the cap has gone up, but the QB salaries have gone up even more the last 2 years.

    I don't think "Pete wouldn't do it". I just think he may be questioning it or has at least lowered the rate further below Rodgers possibly.


    Yes his ceiling is a top 10 QB.

    You're stating the same facts as our discussion on Clark, focusing on what you think Russell's value is, as opposed to the reality that if we DON'T give Russell what he wants (which will be to be the highest paid QB), then he walks or we have to franchise him.

    So that's really the discussion. If you don't want to pay Russell 34M+, then what's your plan for replacing him? Draft? Free agent, trade FOR a QB?
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Re: How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)
Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:56 am
  • Seymour wrote:
    Sgt. Largent wrote:
    Seymour wrote:The key to me is Pete. If you pay your QB $34M + (even over 30M really), then you need to support him with enough weapons and protection to get your $$ worth out of him. If you don't, you wasted your $$ because this is like running your Ferrari on re-tread or bald tires.
    I don't think Pete will do that as defense is his #1 priority. So under Pete he has a fixed lessor value IMO.


    While I agree, Pete and John paid Russell the first time around, what makes you think they wouldn't do it again?

    Because again, the alternative is for them to go on another search for a franchise QB, develop that QB and hope it works out..........all while they're also on the last couple years of their deal, and Pete's 67 years old.

    Your math is right Seymour, but as a franchise you have to have a successful alternative/gameplan if you're not going to extend your franchise QB.


    Wilson has shown his ceiling now, where as on his rookie deal it was still relatively unknown for one. For another, all GM's need to think long and hard now as the QB is taking a higher % of the cap than ever. Yes, the cap has gone up, but the QB salaries have gone up even more the last 2 years.

    I don't think "Pete wouldn't do it". I just think he may be questioning it or has at least lowered the rate further below Rodgers possibly.


    Hypothetically, let's say RW leaves and eclipses his prior performances. I don't care whether you think this is likely or not. Just indulge me.

    What would your first thought be in this hypothetical?
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Re: How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)
Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:00 am
  • If you were Wilson's agent what would you be asking for? Highest paid QB in the league 100%.
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Re: How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)
Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:01 am
  • mrt144 wrote:
    Seymour wrote:
    Sgt. Largent wrote:
    Seymour wrote:The key to me is Pete. If you pay your QB $34M + (even over 30M really), then you need to support him with enough weapons and protection to get your $$ worth out of him. If you don't, you wasted your $$ because this is like running your Ferrari on re-tread or bald tires.
    I don't think Pete will do that as defense is his #1 priority. So under Pete he has a fixed lessor value IMO.


    While I agree, Pete and John paid Russell the first time around, what makes you think they wouldn't do it again?

    Because again, the alternative is for them to go on another search for a franchise QB, develop that QB and hope it works out..........all while they're also on the last couple years of their deal, and Pete's 67 years old.

    Your math is right Seymour, but as a franchise you have to have a successful alternative/gameplan if you're not going to extend your franchise QB.


    Wilson has shown his ceiling now, where as on his rookie deal it was still relatively unknown for one. For another, all GM's need to think long and hard now as the QB is taking a higher % of the cap than ever. Yes, the cap has gone up, but the QB salaries have gone up even more the last 2 years.

    I don't think "Pete wouldn't do it". I just think he may be questioning it or has at least lowered the rate further below Rodgers possibly.


    Hypothetically, let's say RW leaves and eclipses his prior performances. I don't care whether you think this is likely or not. Just indulge me.

    What would your first thought be in this hypothetical?


    I actually think that WOULD happen under many conditions. My first thought on that is coaching and roster limited his effectiveness, and I already believe that anyway. When I said we've seen his ceiling, I mean under Pete he has found it. A change of use and philosophy could raise it again.
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Re: How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)
Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:06 am
  • TwistedHusky wrote:He is probably worth $20M per.


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Re: How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)
Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:07 am
  • Pete thinks run the ball, play defense, and Russ just plays off of that. In Pete's mind you do not need high end, modern, offensive coaching, or a passing game. You just need a running game, and playaction.

    In some ways he is right. Russ can be very efficient. The problem I am seeing though is they are not built to win championships with this model unless you have a #1 type of defense, but when you think about it, any offensive philosophy can work if you have a #1 defense. So what is the point? if they were a little more modern offensively they could win a championship with a top 10 defense. What is modern? Watch the Chicago Bears w/Mitch Trubisky, he sucks, but Matt Nagy is propping him up with an ahead of times scheme. All of the best teams in the NFL have forward thinking offensive minds at the helm.

    Russell Wilson has bailed this team out of so many bad gameplans, and failure over the years, and turned a lot of losses into wins, it's not even funny.

    That value alone makes him worth keeping even if he is going to be underutilized for the time being.

    The money that some view as being wasted. Can easily be made up for by Pete building a young, hungry, lower cost defense. If you trust Pete can do that, then their is nothing to worry about. The difference between paying a QB $30M, or $34M is minuscule in a $200M and rising salary cap.

    Pete needs to build a #1 defense paired with Russell Wilson, or Pete will be mediocre from here on out. They need pass rushers galore, that is all that matters at this point.
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Re: How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)
Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:09 am
  • Seymour wrote:
    mrt144 wrote:
    Seymour wrote:
    Sgt. Largent wrote:
    While I agree, Pete and John paid Russell the first time around, what makes you think they wouldn't do it again?

    Because again, the alternative is for them to go on another search for a franchise QB, develop that QB and hope it works out..........all while they're also on the last couple years of their deal, and Pete's 67 years old.

    Your math is right Seymour, but as a franchise you have to have a successful alternative/gameplan if you're not going to extend your franchise QB.


    Wilson has shown his ceiling now, where as on his rookie deal it was still relatively unknown for one. For another, all GM's need to think long and hard now as the QB is taking a higher % of the cap than ever. Yes, the cap has gone up, but the QB salaries have gone up even more the last 2 years.

    I don't think "Pete wouldn't do it". I just think he may be questioning it or has at least lowered the rate further below Rodgers possibly.


    Hypothetically, let's say RW leaves and eclipses his prior performances. I don't care whether you think this is likely or not. Just indulge me.

    What would your first thought be in this hypothetical?


    I actually think that WOULD happen under many conditions. My first thought on that is coaching and roster limited his effectiveness, and I already believe that anyway. When I said we've seen his ceiling, I mean under Pete he has found it. A change of use and philosophy could raise it again.


    Okay, we're on the same page there then. Part of me knows it's super dubious and selfish to simply want to keep a player to keep him out of the hands of another team but...It would be demoralizing to see him succeed for the Niners (and I'm just using them because of the Division and having a ton of cap space and an injured JG) in ways we didn't think possible.
    Last edited by mrt144 on Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)
Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:10 am
  • He's a good QB. You pay good QB's the going rate. He'll be the top of his pay scale when his contract is renewed and by the end of the contract he'll be a bargain again.

    I'm not sure you can say there are many QB's that are as consistent as Wilson year in and year out. Dude is like Rivers. He plays in every game. He consistently plays at a high level with few stinkers no matter the situation. Gotta pay guys like that.

    I'm not sure what is wrong with most of you? Do you really think it's ever in a FO best interest to not sign a franchise QB and take a shot on the lottery that is draft day? That's about as sure a way to get fired as any for GM or HC. It's like spending all your retirement savings on lottery tickets. Much smarter to stick with a known quantity.

    In the annals of NFL history, how many teams have let a franchise QB walk away in his prime and been better for it?
    The Chargers come closest and even they weren't better off, but at least they got a good QB to replace Brees. So it wasn't a total failure.

    As for Seahawks history, we let Krieg walk just past his prime and sucked until Warren Moon came to town. We let Hass walk past his prime and sucked until Wilson came.
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Re: How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)
Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:23 am
  • Mad Dog wrote:He's a good QB. You pay good QB's the going rate. He'll be the top of his pay scale when his contract is renewed and by the end of the contract he'll be a bargain again.

    I'm not sure you can say there are many QB's that are as consistent as Wilson year in and year out. Dude is like Rivers. He plays in every game. He consistently plays at a high level with few stinkers no matter the situation. Gotta pay guys like that.

    I'm not sure what is wrong with most of you? Do you really think it's ever in a FO best interest to not sign a franchise QB and take a shot on the lottery that is draft day? That's about as sure a way to get fired as any for GM or HC. It's like spending all your retirement savings on lottery tickets. Much smarter to stick with a known quantity.

    In the annals of NFL history, how many teams have let a franchise QB walk away in his prime and been better for it?
    The Chargers come closest and even they weren't better off, but at least they got a good QB to replace Brees. So it wasn't a total failure.

    As for Seahawks history, we let Krieg walk just past his prime and sucked until Warren Moon came to town. We let Hass walk past his prime and sucked until Wilson came.


    I can't speak for others, but I'm a crack baby myself. :twisted:
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Re: How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)
Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:26 am
  • Fade wrote:
    Pete needs to build a #1 defense paired with Russell Wilson, or Pete will be mediocre from here on out. They need pass rushers galore, that is all that matters at this point.


    That's the thing, haven't Pete and John shown us this year that they can rebuild a great young defense again?

    Our defense is further along that most people thought so far, so the formula of paying Russell and spending most draft capital on the defense can work again can't it?

    It wasn't until we paid all the guys on the defense AGAIN that we got into trouble. SO IMO it's still doable with paying Russell. Pete's shown he still knows how to develop a defense.
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Re: How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)
Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:07 pm
  • Mad Dog wrote:He's a good QB. You pay good QB's the going rate. He'll be the top of his pay scale when his contract is renewed and by the end of the contract he'll be a bargain again.

    I'm not sure you can say there are many QB's that are as consistent as Wilson year in and year out. Dude is like Rivers. He plays in every game. He consistently plays at a high level with few stinkers no matter the situation. Gotta pay guys like that.

    I'm not sure what is wrong with most of you? Do you really think it's ever in a FO best interest to not sign a franchise QB and take a shot on the lottery that is draft day? That's about as sure a way to get fired as any for GM or HC. It's like spending all your retirement savings on lottery tickets. Much smarter to stick with a known quantity.

    In the annals of NFL history, how many teams have let a franchise QB walk away in his prime and been better for it?
    The Chargers come closest and even they weren't better off, but at least they got a good QB to replace Brees. So it wasn't a total failure.

    As for Seahawks history, we let Krieg walk just past his prime and sucked until Warren Moon came to town. We let Hass walk past his prime and sucked until Wilson came.


    Precisely ^ , Pete knows that Wilson is the heart & soul of his Offense, he also knows that his Running Game is predicated on having a healthy Wilson to make it function to its optimum.
    Without Wilson's threat, the Run game suffers, and to some degree, vice versa. (Wilson has pulled out a lot of wins without having any kind of Run Game), but it didn't happen without Wilson being unnecessarily beat the hell up.
    What Pete & the Seahawks need to focus on now, is NOT go on the hunt for a Cheapie version of a Franchise Quarterback, but rather DO go on the hunt for finding a more durable Chris Carson type Running Back to compliment his Franchise Quarterback.
    It's pretty simple really, just pay the man what his Market Value is.
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Re: How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)
Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:19 pm
  • scutterhawk wrote:
    Mad Dog wrote:He's a good QB. You pay good QB's the going rate. He'll be the top of his pay scale when his contract is renewed and by the end of the contract he'll be a bargain again.

    I'm not sure you can say there are many QB's that are as consistent as Wilson year in and year out. Dude is like Rivers. He plays in every game. He consistently plays at a high level with few stinkers no matter the situation. Gotta pay guys like that.

    I'm not sure what is wrong with most of you? Do you really think it's ever in a FO best interest to not sign a franchise QB and take a shot on the lottery that is draft day? That's about as sure a way to get fired as any for GM or HC. It's like spending all your retirement savings on lottery tickets. Much smarter to stick with a known quantity.

    In the annals of NFL history, how many teams have let a franchise QB walk away in his prime and been better for it?
    The Chargers come closest and even they weren't better off, but at least they got a good QB to replace Brees. So it wasn't a total failure.

    As for Seahawks history, we let Krieg walk just past his prime and sucked until Warren Moon came to town. We let Hass walk past his prime and sucked until Wilson came.


    Precisely ^ , Pete knows that Wilson is the heart & soul of his Offense, he also knows that his Running Game is predicated on having a healthy Wilson to make it function to its optimum.
    Without Wilson's threat, the Run game suffers, and to some degree, vice versa. (Wilson has pulled out a lot of wins without having any kind of Run Game), but it didn't happen without Wilson being unnecessarily beat the hell up.
    What Pete & the Seahawks need to focus on now, is NOT go on the hunt for a Cheapie version of a Franchise Quarterback, but rather DO go on the hunt for finding a more durable Chris Carson type Running Back to compliment his Franchise Quarterback.
    It's pretty simple really, just pay the man what his Market Value is.


    That is part of the problem in keeping Wilson here under Carroll too. Each year the RO threat diminishes a bit as he will begin slowing and injury concerns will rise in his 3rd contract. The less he runs (rushing stats way down this year) , the lessor the threat to help with the running game. That is one of the big pluses why in his 2nd contract he was more useful to Carroll. His 3rd contract that parameter will need to have a lower value for sure.
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Re: How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)
Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:26 pm
  • Trade him for 4 first round picks and draft Hebert from Oregon. At that point, replace the staff and bring in key personnel that can draft evaluate.
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Re: How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)
Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:29 pm
  • You pay whatever top 5 QBs are getting at the time the negotiating starts.

    Duh


    Only exception would be, if he was willing to do what Brady does.
    Take less to help the team because you don’t need it from the team.
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Re: How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)
Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:38 pm
  • The issue is not how good Wilson is. The issue is the overall result.

    We are seeing that with this team, WITH Wilson and WITHOUT paying him $35M per year - we are basically a .500 team.

    With Pete, Wilson's ceiling is basically the wildcard game win.

    That is without the all everything defense.

    Now, can you get another QB to get you to the same result even without all the great plays that Wilson does but more consistent performance at the normal stuff? I would expect so.

    We can probably get the same .500 record with a 20M QB that we are getting with our soon to be 35M QB. So he is worth 20M because that is the value he provides. Once he cost 10M more and we start to lose key players because of that - he is worth even less.

    With another coach would he be worth 35M? Almost assuredly. But paying him 35M and stripping the team to reach .500? There are plenty of other less costly ways to reach .500 that do not involve paying your QB 35M a year.

    As the best player on the team on an offensively oriented team he would be worth it, and I think he would be that. But on a Carroll run first team propped up by a better than average D? Not really.

    We will almost assuredly pay the 35M and we will probably circle .500 for years because of that. But he isn't worth it on this team with this coach because he the amount he makes the team better with his ability will be offset by the amount he makes it worse by stripping it of talent/FAs/spend.

    One of the problems with keeping Carroll in the first place was that without his all-everything defense he was never going to get the value out of Wilson other coaches might have.
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  • pmedic920 wrote:You pay whatever top 5 QBs are getting at the time the negotiating starts.

    Duh


    Only exception would be, if he was willing to do what Brady does.
    Take less to help the team because you don’t need it from the team.


    I can't see Russ doing this, Brady's on what his 4th or 5th contract, has a net worth of 180M, has earned almost 200M over 18 years.......and oh btw has a wife with a net worth of 360M. So not really fair to expect Russell to just take less before he's made anything close to these crazy numbers.

    So yes, you want to extend Russ, you give him top 5 money and more guaranteed than Rodgers just got.......or whoever the next top 10 QB to sign an extension gets.
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  • Sgt. Largent wrote:
    Fade wrote:
    Pete needs to build a #1 defense paired with Russell Wilson, or Pete will be mediocre from here on out. They need pass rushers galore, that is all that matters at this point.


    That's the thing, haven't Pete and John shown us this year that they can rebuild a great young defense again?

    Our defense is further along that most people thought so far, so the formula of paying Russell and spending most draft capital on the defense can work again can't it?

    It wasn't until we paid all the guys on the defense AGAIN that we got into trouble. SO IMO it's still doable with paying Russell. Pete's shown he still knows how to develop a defense.


    Yes, he does. I stated the plan can work, but they need an elite defense for it to fully work. They have a top 10 defense now
    and they are 4-4. Mediocre. Have to get to that #1 defense mark, or continue to be a .500 team. Pass rush is what they need.
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  • Look at the Pack. Erin has a massive contract, but they are under .500. Gotta' have the other pieces around your QB.
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  • pmedic920 wrote:You pay whatever top 5 QBs are getting at the time the negotiating starts.

    Duh


    This.

    I find the 'he's a good, not great QB' arguments to be total garbage. Not because they may well be right. I tend to agree to an extent (although I think he is better than good -- but also don't think he's great).

    What is garbage is the implied notion that you can simply get a good QB with relative ease. This is absurdly not the case. Even in today's NFL where first round caliber QBs seem to come in twos and threes at least every other year.

    The real answer to this question isn't 'Is Wilson worth it?'. It's how will we replace him with that good QB?

    Here are the drafts of this past decade. I've eliminated any QB picked in the top 4 overall. One, because this team is not going to be that bad in the foreseeable future. Two because even bad teams can still end up out of the top 4. So here goes:

    Day 1 picks:

    1st day QBs 2010-now.jpg
    1st day QBs 2010-now.jpg (43.33 KiB) Viewed 706 times


    Day 2 picks:

    2nd day QBs 2010-now.jpg
    2nd day QBs 2010-now.jpg (58.2 KiB) Viewed 706 times


    Day 3 picks:

    3rd day QBs 2013-now.jpg
    3rd day QBs 2013-now.jpg (100.55 KiB) Viewed 706 times



    Looking at the QBs, the odds of getting a QB even of Jake Locker's 'goodness' is pitifully bad. Even in the 5th to 32nd overall range, it's pretty bad. And not every draft even has guys worthy of that range to begin with. Which probably accounts for why you get Christian Ponders and Paxton Lynchs being drafted in R1 even though they aren't worthy.

    Day 2 QBs is an even worse lot to pull from. Without a doubt, Wilson is the best QB to come from day 2 this entire decade. It's not really that close. And there is essentially Andy Dalton standing alone as a good QB from the 21 players picked in this range for this decade.

    Day 3. Well it's just a real mess.


    The real question isn't is Wilson worth the cash. The real question is how many draft picks would a team have to expend in order to just get a guy as good as Ryan Tannehill. Even if we never traded up -- just kept drafting QBs every single year until we got lucky on one -- one could be looking at 2-3 first round picks, 3-4 2nd to third round picks and maybe in excess of 10 day 3 picks. Over the course of 5-7 years. Because those are kind of the odds.

    Even despite the fact that college seems to be producing higher quality QBs at a better overall rate -- that is far from certain. The last two drafts may have been outliers. This current years' rookies still have time to flame out in classic Rick Mirer fashion.

    If a team could just buy a first round pick for 10m in cap space, we'd think that a no brainer. Keeping a very good QB is like getting a first and a third for that 10m (figure a 'good' QB is going to cost 22-23m on the open market). In the scheme of what is the alternative going to look like and what will that cost in terms of draft capital the question seems remarkably absurd.

    You can't simply buy a franchise QB. The opportunity is exceptionally rare and almost always very fleeting. You can more often buy QBs who used to be good (Flacco, Bortles etc.) Those will cost about 20m on the open market. Bradford as bad as he is cost that plus multiple 1st round picks.

    The ONLY way to part with Wilson, is if you spend years and high draft capital on QBs even when you have Wilson on the roster. And then be fortunate enough to have him hit (Kansas City's exact model duplicated this year by Baltimore). It's why I hoped to high heaven that we drafted Lamar Jackson this draft. How often do you get to draft the most explosive player in the entire draft?

    If we're going to replace Wilson, it's going to assuredly be a multi year effort. Spending high draft picks on gooberish looking QB prospects. Hoping one of them pops. Leaving holes left unfilled by design in the process.
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  • I hope someone shows up to say "we did it 7 years ago, why not again" so you can flay them.
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  • I thought we was waiting till off season to do this..Good stuff on here though and I see some
    not being so closed minded as when this stuff was being discussed before the season.I just
    wonder if the next QB is already here..(Mcgoo)
    I will post something later in thread..Go Hawks!!!
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  • mrt144 wrote:
    Seymour wrote:
    Sgt. Largent wrote:
    Seymour wrote:The key to me is Pete. If you pay your QB $34M + (even over 30M really), then you need to support him with enough weapons and protection to get your $$ worth out of him. If you don't, you wasted your $$ because this is like running your Ferrari on re-tread or bald tires.
    I don't think Pete will do that as defense is his #1 priority. So under Pete he has a fixed lessor value IMO.


    While I agree, Pete and John paid Russell the first time around, what makes you think they wouldn't do it again?

    Because again, the alternative is for them to go on another search for a franchise QB, develop that QB and hope it works out..........all while they're also on the last couple years of their deal, and Pete's 67 years old.

    Your math is right Seymour, but as a franchise you have to have a successful alternative/gameplan if you're not going to extend your franchise QB.


    Wilson has shown his ceiling now, where as on his rookie deal it was still relatively unknown for one. For another, all GM's need to think long and hard now as the QB is taking a higher % of the cap than ever. Yes, the cap has gone up, but the QB salaries have gone up even more the last 2 years.

    I don't think "Pete wouldn't do it". I just think he may be questioning it or has at least lowered the rate further below Rodgers possibly.


    Hypothetically, let's say RW leaves and eclipses his prior performances. I don't care whether you think this is likely or not. Just indulge me.

    What would your first thought be in this hypothetical?


    If Seattle is dumb enough to trade him and we're right back into the scenario of mediocrity that existed for so many years, I'll find something else to do on Sundays.
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  • RW has lost so much speed. He isn't elite anymore.


    Gets sacks too often. Holding the ball too long. And can't run out of pocket to gain yardage when everything is covered.

    If seattle is going run heavy with 3 backs, the price to pay is 15mill for a QB that's average Joe.
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  • I said it in an earlier thread that I think the Chargers will make a hard play for him to replace Philip Rivers. I also think that RW will be receptive to it because:

    1. He will be seeking new challenges

    2. He already spends much of his off season there training

    3. He is established down there with his wife being part of the entertainment industry
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  • poly1274 wrote:RW has lost so much speed. He isn't elite anymore.


    He may have lost some speed but he certainly hasn't "lost so much speed." That just doesn't happen at age 29 unless you have sustained significant injuries.
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  • 30-34 Million on a 5 year deal will look cheap in just a few years. just like his 20Mil looks now.
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  • Seymour wrote:
    scutterhawk wrote:
    Mad Dog wrote:He's a good QB. You pay good QB's the going rate. He'll be the top of his pay scale when his contract is renewed and by the end of the contract he'll be a bargain again.

    I'm not sure you can say there are many QB's that are as consistent as Wilson year in and year out. Dude is like Rivers. He plays in every game. He consistently plays at a high level with few stinkers no matter the situation. Gotta pay guys like that.

    I'm not sure what is wrong with most of you? Do you really think it's ever in a FO best interest to not sign a franchise QB and take a shot on the lottery that is draft day? That's about as sure a way to get fired as any for GM or HC. It's like spending all your retirement savings on lottery tickets. Much smarter to stick with a known quantity.

    In the annals of NFL history, how many teams have let a franchise QB walk away in his prime and been better for it?
    The Chargers come closest and even they weren't better off, but at least they got a good QB to replace Brees. So it wasn't a total failure.

    As for Seahawks history, we let Krieg walk just past his prime and sucked until Warren Moon came to town. We let Hass walk past his prime and sucked until Wilson came.


    Precisely ^ , Pete knows that Wilson is the heart & soul of his Offense, he also knows that his Running Game is predicated on having a healthy Wilson to make it function to its optimum.
    Without Wilson's threat, the Run game suffers, and to some degree, vice versa. (Wilson has pulled out a lot of wins without having any kind of Run Game), but it didn't happen without Wilson being unnecessarily beat the hell up.
    What Pete & the Seahawks need to focus on now, is NOT go on the hunt for a Cheapie version of a Franchise Quarterback, but rather DO go on the hunt for finding a more durable Chris Carson type Running Back to compliment his Franchise Quarterback.
    It's pretty simple really, just pay the man what his Market Value is.


    That is part of the problem in keeping Wilson here under Carroll too. Each year the RO threat diminishes a bit as he will begin slowing and injury concerns will rise in his 3rd contract. The less he runs (rushing stats way down this year) , the lessor the threat to help with the running game. That is one of the big pluses why in his 2nd contract he was more useful to Carroll. His 3rd contract that parameter will need to have a lower value for sure.

    The RO has been diminishing a lot , because without a decent Run Game, there are no Options.
    With Solari & Schottenheimer now upgrading Pete's Run Game a bunch, so I can see some daylight in the RO packages again.
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Re: How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)
Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:12 pm
  • The reason I feel NOT paying Wilson top QB money is because the Carroll offense is run the ball, run the ball and run the ball.

    Except when you're at the goaline during the Super Bowl with a legendary RB and the game on the line, then you obviously throw the ball! Duh!!!!!
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Re: How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)
Fri Nov 09, 2018 12:04 am
  • For QBs particularly, as league revenue greatly increases accompanied by the market exponentially, I predict down the road we'll see attempts at equity for select players in either a share of the team or in the league itself (in case of joining another team). Think of increased incentive players like Wilson would have if they were motivated by team profitability as opposed to pure salary. Perhaps a contract where one's equity in a team would increase the more success the team achieves both through wins and bottom line.

    As the QB market skyrockets, these discussions in future CBAs could eventually take place. Yes, maybe some owners would never relinquish even a very small portion of their stake, but all it takes is 1 eventually. An interesting article on the subject:
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes ... y-for/amp/
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  • I think he's worth 25-30 and if he wants more let him walk blow it up and start over. Wilson isn't the same player he was his first 4 years. He used to run and was able to make plays with his legs now he's just a pocket passer with issues seeing the middle of the field.
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  • Attyla the Hawk wrote:
    pmedic920 wrote:You pay whatever top 5 QBs are getting at the time the negotiating starts.

    Duh


    This.

    I find the 'he's a good, not great QB' arguments to be total garbage. Not because they may well be right. I tend to agree to an extent (although I think he is better than good -- but also don't think he's great).

    What is garbage is the implied notion that you can simply get a good QB with relative ease. This is absurdly not the case. Even in today's NFL where first round caliber QBs seem to come in twos and threes at least every other year.

    The real answer to this question isn't 'Is Wilson worth it?'. It's how will we replace him with that good QB?

    Here are the drafts of this past decade. I've eliminated any QB picked in the top 4 overall. One, because this team is not going to be that bad in the foreseeable future. Two because even bad teams can still end up out of the top 4. So here goes:

    Day 1 picks:

    1st day QBs 2010-now.jpg


    Day 2 picks:

    2nd day QBs 2010-now.jpg


    Day 3 picks:

    3rd day QBs 2013-now.jpg



    Looking at the QBs, the odds of getting a QB even of Jake Locker's 'goodness' is pitifully bad. Even in the 5th to 32nd overall range, it's pretty bad. And not every draft even has guys worthy of that range to begin with. Which probably accounts for why you get Christian Ponders and Paxton Lynchs being drafted in R1 even though they aren't worthy.

    Day 2 QBs is an even worse lot to pull from. Without a doubt, Wilson is the best QB to come from day 2 this entire decade. It's not really that close. And there is essentially Andy Dalton standing alone as a good QB from the 21 players picked in this range for this decade.

    Day 3. Well it's just a real mess.


    The real question isn't is Wilson worth the cash. The real question is how many draft picks would a team have to expend in order to just get a guy as good as Ryan Tannehill. Even if we never traded up -- just kept drafting QBs every single year until we got lucky on one -- one could be looking at 2-3 first round picks, 3-4 2nd to third round picks and maybe in excess of 10 day 3 picks. Over the course of 5-7 years. Because those are kind of the odds.

    Even despite the fact that college seems to be producing higher quality QBs at a better overall rate -- that is far from certain. The last two drafts may have been outliers. This current years' rookies still have time to flame out in classic Rick Mirer fashion.

    If a team could just buy a first round pick for 10m in cap space, we'd think that a no brainer. Keeping a very good QB is like getting a first and a third for that 10m (figure a 'good' QB is going to cost 22-23m on the open market). In the scheme of what is the alternative going to look like and what will that cost in terms of draft capital the question seems remarkably absurd.

    You can't simply buy a franchise QB. The opportunity is exceptionally rare and almost always very fleeting. You can more often buy QBs who used to be good (Flacco, Bortles etc.) Those will cost about 20m on the open market. Bradford as bad as he is cost that plus multiple 1st round picks.

    The ONLY way to part with Wilson, is if you spend years and high draft capital on QBs even when you have Wilson on the roster. And then be fortunate enough to have him hit (Kansas City's exact model duplicated this year by Baltimore). It's why I hoped to high heaven that we drafted Lamar Jackson this draft. How often do you get to draft the most explosive player in the entire draft?

    If we're going to replace Wilson, it's going to assuredly be a multi year effort. Spending high draft picks on gooberish looking QB prospects. Hoping one of them pops. Leaving holes left unfilled by design in the process.




    I'd give Wilson and Pete one last chance next season to make the playoffs then i'd clean house. I would not extend him before he's played out his contract.
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  • I hope we keep him. Like any player, he's had his ups and downs but...he's a fighter. He doesn't give up. As he ages, I think we'll continue to see just how proficient of a "pocket" passer he can be.

    With that said....there are a few teams that aren't breaking the bank on their QBs and have faired well (Philly's not playing great atm). Goff, Mahomes, Wentz...etc. Anomalies? Likely. Will they demand huge contracts when the time comes? If they keep playing like they have been, definitely.

    But....it makes me wonder just how much that will come into play when RW's time comes. I don't think those models are the best to follow. Surely not sustainable. But, $$$ wise...

    Poorly paraphrasing an article I read not long ago....
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  • DomeHawk wrote:I said it in an earlier thread that I think the Chargers will make a hard play for him to replace Philip Rivers. I also think that RW will be receptive to it because:

    1. He will be seeking new challenges

    2. He already spends much of his off season there training

    3. He is established down there with his wife being part of the entertainment industry


    I remember reading that. You may be right. I would think that would depend on how much longer Rivers intends on playing. Kind of a no-brainer comment but...if he is performing at...

    Currently 13th in passing yards. 3rd in rating. 19 TDs, 3 ints. Makes a little less than RW.

    It may be a hard pitch...
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  • Fade wrote: The problem I am seeing though is they are not built to win championships with this model unless you have a #1 type of defense, but when you think about it, any offensive philosophy can work if you have a #1 defense.


    That's why we saw a Vikings/Jaguars Super Bowl last year.
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  • I think Scot McCloughan really nailed it with his evaluation of Wilson about a year and a half ago: He's the best QB in the NFL who you don't want throwing the ball 30+ times per game.

    All of the top QBs are better with a run game supporting them, but Wilson is kind of a strange duck in that he is, IMO, really only elite in a run first offense, which is a strange thing to wrap your head around.

    It makes paying him kind of weird, as even more so than every other really good QB, by paying him you're stealing resources from the places that make him so good to begin with.
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  • Pete Carroll is not capable of winning another Super Bowl with Wilson. Carroll has mismanaged his offenses to a negligent degree while he has been head coach here. His offense just isn't a good fit for the modern day NFL. I'm not talking about the "run first mentality" either -- I'm speaking more about passing concepts, and overall usage of the route trees. Our passing game seems to only work properly when we have a run game installed --- that is because it is predicated on stretching defenses vertically, and banking on teams selling out for the run. Sometimes we go away from that style, but it seems as if we always recommit to that style of passing game. A 30 million dollar plus QB here is a waste of resources and potential.

    I think Wilson is good, but I don't think we're ever going to see more from him under Carroll. What we see is what we're going to get. The only difference is the team will become more hamstrung from signing such a deal. I just look at teams like the Packers that always pay out the yin yang for guys like Rodgers, and I see how the team has a tough time being legitimately competitive. They aren't able to retain talent, nor are they able to spend much in the free agency. All of this considering that Rodgers is better than Wilson, in an objectively superior offensive scheme. I'd rather gamble and see if I could catch lightening in a jar again. I don't think that happens with Wilson under Pete Carroll.

    I'm thinking that Pete Carroll MAY be thinking the same thing regarding devoting such a large portion of the contract to one player. Lots of criticism directed Wilson's way, more so than in years past by Pete Carroll. Jon Schneider also personally attended the workout of Josh Allen. That is kind of an odd move that prompted questions from Wilson's agent. This, to me doesn't seem normal. Of course, I'm probably off base on the last part here. I just think the way Carroll, and Schneider are doing things here raise a few questions.
    Spin Doctor
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