How much do YOU pay Wilson? -- (Poll)

There is a wide variety of opinions on Russell Wilson and his value here and for good reason. Next season Russell is in the last year of his current contract and likely will be extended. His current contract pays an average annual salary of $21,900,000 (that was set at $100K under Rodgers contract at the time)
Assuming Pete Carroll stays at least 2 years of Russell's new contract (important with emphasis on run game), where do you draw the line of the maximum you would pay to keep Wilson here beyond 2019.

Here are what other QB's that have done deals within the last year or so are making...

Aaron Rodgers average annual salary of $33,500,000
Matt Ryan average annual salary of $30,000,000
Kirk Cousins average annual salary of $28,000,000
Drew Brees average annual salary of $25,000,000
Case Keenum average annual salary of $18,000,000

Make him the highest paid qb. Whatever it takes to keep him.

Russell's an interesting case study for the QB market.

Because what drives up a QB's contract is what his value would be on the open market, so the question is how many teams would break the bank to sign Russell if he got to FA?

My guess is enough to have to pay him 34M+, or else he won't sign an extension if we try to lowball him or not make him the highest paid QB as you'd suspect he'd want.

So IMO we don't have a choice unless we can draft a QB we trust to take over in next year's draft.

The key to me is Pete. If you pay your QB $34M + (even over 30M really), then you need to support him with enough weapons and protection to get your $$ worth out of him. If you don't, you wasted your $$ because this is like running your Ferrari on re-tread or bald tires.
I don't think Pete will do that as defense is his #1 priority. So under Pete he has a fixed lessor value IMO.

If we make him the highest paid QB, we are knee-capping ourselves.

He isn't terrible. He is a good QB.

But he does not produce reliably and consistently. And ultimately, with the impact his salary will have - this team will be thin or green at numerous positions for years. He is certainly in the top ten but paying him money like he is in the top 3 is going to hamstring us for years.

He is probably worth $20M per.

Also, while he is a very good QB - his impact on a game is mitigated by the way Carroll chooses to use him. So a lesser QB, while nowhere near as effective could have a very similar impact on the same games. Because Wilson is barely doing anything anyway, he is almost a 3rd option right now. (which is weird).

So why pay him as if he is the primary?

I don't know if there is a good ending to this story. I see us getting stuck with Wilson, saddled with a 30M a year salary and sitting about .500 for the next few years. Especially as we find it hard to pay people and lose them to FA. We may get a few wildcard games sprinkled in here and there when we have years like this year - but otherwise there probably is little upside.

Our drafts have been OK but we will see an exodus of our experienced players and the next few years will be pretty blah accordingly. I am not expecting much but if we sign him, we probably have that future awaiting us.

TwistedHusky":1e7r4iiq said:

He is probably worth $20M per.

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In today's NFL where Blake Bortles gets $20mil this year, I think your just a taaaaaaaaaaad bit off.

Part of me agrees with Twisted. As long as Pete is here, I don't see getting the value from a $30M+ QB with our emphasis on running and ball control. I'm reaching the point that I think we may have a better shot at a title with a QB on a rookie deal, top 3 Defense, and a bell cow top 3 RB. Near impossible to do all that paying your QB 34M.

Pete + Russell = not good fit IMO. I think Pete may possibly be thinking that too. For the first time, he is beginning to call out Russell and his mistakes in the press. I don't see him calling out other players, just Russell.

Now with on offensive minded HC, that all would change obviously.

Seymour":2xbwydlg said:

The key to me is Pete. If you pay your QB $34M + (even over 30M really), then you need to support him with enough weapons and protection to get your $$ worth out of him. If you don't, you wasted your $$ because this is like running your Ferrari on re-tread or bald tires.
I don't think Pete will do that as defense is his #1 priority. So under Pete he has a fixed lessor value IMO.

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I wouldn't even say you need to support him with weapons per se (that's part of it, and we can look at how Sean Payton has always been cognizant of maximizing Drew's output by keeping a stable of above average or better position players, even if the defense suffers by proxy) but to actually fundamentally alter the way he looks at passing strategy and tactics. To me it seems like Pete has always been reluctant to go all in on a dynamic and integral passing game - it's just at odds with what he views as winning football.

Perhaps the situation is as such - RW @ 30-34M per year is likely the going rate for someone of RW's caliber given the other market participants bank. And among those other market participants, many would see and try to utilize RW in a more cogent passing attack because it's Plan A instead of Plan B. Basically RW is worth what other market participants are willing to pay because he will be an absolutely foundational part of the offense and might even get more of a hand in crafting that offense.

But Pete who seems to love him because he is generally less catastrophic mistake prone to other QBs and can individually put out an execution failure by other teammates and can throw a beautiful deep ball, he might not be worth that. Oh and Wilson's personality meshes with Pete's to a T which I think is one of the intangible factors when it comes to contract negotiations. Wilson might not be everything that the team needs in execution but he certainly is the exact kind of player Pete digs and wants to keep around because of attitude.

The damning thing here is trying to reconcile the value what we might view as ancillary like attitude - is the 4M difference 34M vs. 30M per year worth it because RW turns Pete's crank and is everything Pete wants in a team leader?

By the same token, what if PC just turns RW's crank as a player and he really enjoys working with him even if it isn't all glory all the time.

I think the bottom line is that forward looking performance and making RW a foundational aspect of means a lot more to other teams than it does to the Hawks. But the leadership and attitude aspects mean a lot more to Pete than other teams.

Seymour":1jivazhl said:

The key to me is Pete. If you pay your QB $34M + (even over 30M really), then you need to support him with enough weapons and protection to get your $$ worth out of him. If you don't, you wasted your $$ because this is like running your Ferrari on re-tread or bald tires.
I don't think Pete will do that as defense is his #1 priority. So under Pete he has a fixed lessor value IMO.

Click to expand...

While I agree, Pete and John paid Russell the first time around, what makes you think they wouldn't do it again?

Because again, the alternative is for them to go on another search for a franchise QB, develop that QB and hope it works out..........all while they're also on the last couple years of their deal, and Pete's 67 years old.

Your math is right Seymour, but as a franchise you have to have a successful alternative/gameplan if you're not going to extend your franchise QB.

TwistedHusky":2h6ffxiz said:

If we make him the highest paid QB, we are knee-capping ourselves.

He isn't terrible. He is a good QB.

But he does not produce reliably and consistently. And ultimately, with the impact his salary will have - this team will be thin or green at numerous positions for years. He is certainly in the top ten but paying him money like he is in the top 3 is going to hamstring us for years.

He is probably worth $20M per.

Also, while he is a very good QB - his impact on a game is mitigated by the way Carroll chooses to use him. So a lesser QB, while nowhere near as effective could have a very similar impact on the same games. Because Wilson is barely doing anything anyway, he is almost a 3rd option right now. (which is weird).

So why pay him as if he is the primary?

I don't know if there is a good ending to this story. I see us getting stuck with Wilson, saddled with a 30M a year salary and sitting about .500 for the next few years. Especially as we find it hard to pay people and lose them to FA. We may get a few wildcard games sprinkled in here and there when we have years like this year - but otherwise there probably is little upside.

Our drafts have been OK but we will see an exodus of our experienced players and the next few years will be pretty blah accordingly. I am not expecting much but if we sign him, we probably have that future awaiting us.

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You know what would also help vis a vis salary cap is not burning FA money or absorb salary on a trade for bums that suck. The margin for error is lower with a higher QB cap% but...bungling many other contracts simultaneously hurts as well. I get that Pete loves lost puppies and yes I'm still kind of bent about the whole Joeckle fiasco but that dude cleared 9M on a rehab rental where he sucked. Just because the QB clocks the highest paycheck doesn't mean his contract is the thing that subverts the entire team - it could be a collection of midrange gaffes that eclipse the total salary of the QB and don't even sniff a rough approximation in value contributed.

TwistedHusky":3ouf9ioy said:

So why pay him as if he is the primary?.

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Because the alternative is to risk not finding another top 10 franchise QB..................AND more importantly during the middle of a rebuild where you desperately need a veteran top 10 QB to run your offense while you're trying to rebuild the defense to get back to the SB.

I get the "Russell's not worth 34M+," I do. So what's your plan if you trade him or let him walk?

Sgt. Largent":6tifg0he said:

Seymour":6tifg0he said:

The key to me is Pete. If you pay your QB $34M + (even over 30M really), then you need to support him with enough weapons and protection to get your $$ worth out of him. If you don't, you wasted your $$ because this is like running your Ferrari on re-tread or bald tires.
I don't think Pete will do that as defense is his #1 priority. So under Pete he has a fixed lessor value IMO.

Click to expand...

While I agree, Pete and John paid Russell the first time around, what makes you think they wouldn't do it again?

Because again, the alternative is for them to go on another search for a franchise QB, develop that QB and hope it works out..........all while they're also on the last couple years of their deal, and Pete's 67 years old.

Your math is right Seymour, but as a franchise you have to have a successful alternative/gameplan if you're not going to extend your franchise QB.

Click to expand...

Wilson has shown his ceiling now, where as on his rookie deal it was still relatively unknown for one. For another, all GM's need to think long and hard now as the QB is taking a higher % of the cap than ever. Yes, the cap has gone up, but the QB salaries have gone up even more the last 2 years.

I don't think "Pete wouldn't do it". I just think he may be questioning it or has at least lowered the rate further below Rodgers possibly.

TwistedHusky":37yqklrn said:

Also, while he is a very good QB - his impact on a game is mitigated by the way Carroll chooses to use him. So a lesser QB, while nowhere near as effective could have a very similar impact on the same games. Because Wilson is barely doing anything anyway, he is almost a 3rd option right now. (which is weird).

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It certainly worked out when we had a good-and-improving defense, Beastmode, and Tavaris Jackson. There was no notable difference at all when we went away from him and brought in RW. Or Matt Flynn. This team worked pretty much exactly the same with any one of those three.

Oh wait, that's not how it worked at all.

What is wrong with you people, anyway? :roll:

Sgt. Largent":o1k2rc80 said:

TwistedHusky":o1k2rc80 said:

So why pay him as if he is the primary?.

Click to expand...

Because the alternative is to risk not finding another top 10 franchise QB..................AND more importantly during the middle of a rebuild where you desperately need a veteran top 10 QB to run your offense while you're trying to rebuild the defense to get back to the SB.

I get the "Russell's not worth 34M+," I do. So what's your plan if you trade him or let him walk?

Click to expand...

I think for this discussion, it's best to just say trade him and take your chances with a cheap rookie game manager QB. Trying to make someone "have a plan in place with player X", limits the conversation too much IMO.

Seymour":go4ijavc said:

Sgt. Largent":go4ijavc said:

Seymour":go4ijavc said:

The key to me is Pete. If you pay your QB $34M + (even over 30M really), then you need to support him with enough weapons and protection to get your $$ worth out of him. If you don't, you wasted your $$ because this is like running your Ferrari on re-tread or bald tires.
I don't think Pete will do that as defense is his #1 priority. So under Pete he has a fixed lessor value IMO.

Click to expand...

While I agree, Pete and John paid Russell the first time around, what makes you think they wouldn't do it again?

Because again, the alternative is for them to go on another search for a franchise QB, develop that QB and hope it works out..........all while they're also on the last couple years of their deal, and Pete's 67 years old.

Your math is right Seymour, but as a franchise you have to have a successful alternative/gameplan if you're not going to extend your franchise QB.

Click to expand...

Wilson has shown his ceiling now, where as on his rookie deal it was still relatively unknown for one. For another, all GM's need to think long and hard now as the QB is taking a higher % of the cap than ever. Yes, the cap has gone up, but the QB salaries have gone up even more the last 2 years.

I don't think "Pete wouldn't do it". I just think he may be questioning it or has at least lowered the rate further below Rodgers possibly.

Click to expand...

Yes his ceiling is a top 10 QB.

You're stating the same facts as our discussion on Clark, focusing on what you think Russell's value is, as opposed to the reality that if we DON'T give Russell what he wants (which will be to be the highest paid QB), then he walks or we have to franchise him.

So that's really the discussion. If you don't want to pay Russell 34M+, then what's your plan for replacing him? Draft? Free agent, trade FOR a QB?

Seymour":69yq4vj0 said:

Sgt. Largent":69yq4vj0 said:

Seymour":69yq4vj0 said:

The key to me is Pete. If you pay your QB $34M + (even over 30M really), then you need to support him with enough weapons and protection to get your $$ worth out of him. If you don't, you wasted your $$ because this is like running your Ferrari on re-tread or bald tires.
I don't think Pete will do that as defense is his #1 priority. So under Pete he has a fixed lessor value IMO.

Click to expand...

While I agree, Pete and John paid Russell the first time around, what makes you think they wouldn't do it again?

Because again, the alternative is for them to go on another search for a franchise QB, develop that QB and hope it works out..........all while they're also on the last couple years of their deal, and Pete's 67 years old.

Your math is right Seymour, but as a franchise you have to have a successful alternative/gameplan if you're not going to extend your franchise QB.

Click to expand...

Wilson has shown his ceiling now, where as on his rookie deal it was still relatively unknown for one. For another, all GM's need to think long and hard now as the QB is taking a higher % of the cap than ever. Yes, the cap has gone up, but the QB salaries have gone up even more the last 2 years.

I don't think "Pete wouldn't do it". I just think he may be questioning it or has at least lowered the rate further below Rodgers possibly.

Click to expand...

Hypothetically, let's say RW leaves and eclipses his prior performances. I don't care whether you think this is likely or not. Just indulge me.

What would your first thought be in this hypothetical?

If you were Wilson's agent what would you be asking for? Highest paid QB in the league 100%.

mrt144":32mfwk1n said:

Seymour":32mfwk1n said:

Sgt. Largent":32mfwk1n said:

Seymour":32mfwk1n said:

The key to me is Pete. If you pay your QB $34M + (even over 30M really), then you need to support him with enough weapons and protection to get your $$ worth out of him. If you don't, you wasted your $$ because this is like running your Ferrari on re-tread or bald tires.
I don't think Pete will do that as defense is his #1 priority. So under Pete he has a fixed lessor value IMO.

Click to expand...

While I agree, Pete and John paid Russell the first time around, what makes you think they wouldn't do it again?

Because again, the alternative is for them to go on another search for a franchise QB, develop that QB and hope it works out..........all while they're also on the last couple years of their deal, and Pete's 67 years old.

Your math is right Seymour, but as a franchise you have to have a successful alternative/gameplan if you're not going to extend your franchise QB.

Click to expand...

Wilson has shown his ceiling now, where as on his rookie deal it was still relatively unknown for one. For another, all GM's need to think long and hard now as the QB is taking a higher % of the cap than ever. Yes, the cap has gone up, but the QB salaries have gone up even more the last 2 years.

I don't think "Pete wouldn't do it". I just think he may be questioning it or has at least lowered the rate further below Rodgers possibly.

Click to expand...

Hypothetically, let's say RW leaves and eclipses his prior performances. I don't care whether you think this is likely or not. Just indulge me.

What would your first thought be in this hypothetical?

Click to expand...

I actually think that WOULD happen under many conditions. My first thought on that is coaching and roster limited his effectiveness, and I already believe that anyway. When I said we've seen his ceiling, I mean under Pete he has found it. A change of use and philosophy could raise it again.

TwistedHusky":1hksyjs9 said:

He is probably worth $20M per.

Click to expand...

What are YOU smoking this morning?

Pete thinks run the ball, play defense, and Russ just plays off of that. In Pete's mind you do not need high end, modern, offensive coaching, or a passing game. You just need a running game, and playaction.

In some ways he is right. Russ can be very efficient. The problem I am seeing though is they are not built to win championships with this model unless you have a #1 type of defense, but when you think about it, any offensive philosophy can work if you have a #1 defense. So what is the point? if they were a little more modern offensively they could win a championship with a top 10 defense. What is modern? Watch the Chicago Bears w/Mitch Trubisky, he sucks, but Matt Nagy is propping him up with an ahead of times scheme. All of the best teams in the NFL have forward thinking offensive minds at the helm.

Russell Wilson has bailed this team out of so many bad gameplans, and failure over the years, and turned a lot of losses into wins, it's not even funny.

That value alone makes him worth keeping even if he is going to be underutilized for the time being.

The money that some view as being wasted. Can easily be made up for by Pete building a young, hungry, lower cost defense. If you trust Pete can do that, then their is nothing to worry about. The difference between paying a QB $30M, or $34M is minuscule in a $200M and rising salary cap.

Pete needs to build a #1 defense paired with Russell Wilson, or Pete will be mediocre from here on out. They need pass rushers galore, that is all that matters at this point.