NFC Playoff Scenarios [Week 13]

Alright everyone,

The Turkey has been cooked, the leftovers are in the icebox, Christmas carols are in the air, and that can only mean one thing: It's playoff scenario season! With the consent of the moderators, I will go over the NFC picture and scenarios here on the main board since it directly affects the Seahawks, and I will link up with a companion article that covers the AFC Playoff Scenario in the NFC General forum. With all that said, let's get started with.....

NFC East Record Conf. Division Next Five
Dallas 6-5 5-3 3-1 New Orleans, Philly, @Indy, Tampa, @NY Giants
Washington 6-5 6-3 2-1 @Philly, NY Giants, @Jax, @Tenn, Philly
Philly 5-6 3-5 2-1 Washington, @Dallas, @LA Rams, Houston, @Washington
NY Giants 3-8 2-7 0-4 Chicago, @Washington, Tenn, @Indy, Dallas

Clinching Scenarios: NONE There are likely to be none for some time either as this division race is clearly a dogfight with only the Giants being really out of it. Dallas probably has the edge, but it's just that: An Edge. Dallas is first in the NFCE by virtue of it's division record. Washington edges Seattle right now for the #6 seed because it currently has played and won one more conference game.

Elimination Scenarios: NONE Only the NY Giants are close to being eliminated and the soonest that could happen is week 14 and likely not even then. See above. It's entirely possible that 8-8 may win this division.

NFC North Record Conf. Division Next Five
Chicago 8-3 6-1 3-1 @NY Giants, LA Rams, Green Bay, @San Fran, @Minny
Minnesota 6-4-1 5-3-1 2-1-1 @New England, @Seattle, Miami, @Detroit, Chicago
Green Bay 4-6-1 2-5-1 1-2-1 Arizona, Atlanta, @Chicago, @NY Jets, Detroit
Detroit 4-7 2-6 1-3 LA Rams, @Arizona, @Buffalo, Minny, @Green Bay

Clinching Scenarios: NONE Chicago is clearly in control of this division with a solid 1.5 game lead and most tiebreaks, but Minnesota could easily catch them still, and even Green Bay isn't out of it thanks to a fairly cush schedule of Green Bay. Minnesota is currently the five seed but has a really tough schedule coming up.

Elimination Scenario: Because Detroit has lost to Chicago twice already, Detroit can be eliminated from the NFC North Race with a loss (against the LA Rams) AND a Chicago win (at the NY Giants). IMHO this seems likely.

NFC South Record Conf. Division Next Five
New Orleans(1.5) 10-1 7-1 2-1 @Dallas, @Tampa, @Carolina, Pittsburgh, Carolina
Carolina 6-5 4-4 1-1 @Tampa, @Cleveland, New Orleans, Atlanta, @New Orleans
Atlanta 4-7 4-4 2-2 Baltimore, @Green Bay, Arizona, @Carolina, @Tampa
Tampa Bay 4-7 3-5 1-2 Carolina, New Orleans, @Baltimore, @Dallas, Atlanta

Clinching Scenarios: Unlike the LA Rams, New Orleans can't quite clinch on their own, but their magic number is one and a half (see number in parenthesis). That's because they are being chased by Carolina who they haven't played yet. However any combination of a New Orleans win AND a Carolina loss would clinch the NFC South for New Orleans because that would put New Orleans at 11 wins and out of reach of a 6 loss Carolina team. [Actually the scenario is a New Orleans win + Carolina loss OR tie *OR* a New Orleans tie + Carolina loss] If only New Orleans wins, they won't win the South outright but will be very close (like the LA Rams are in the West).

Elimination Scenarios: Atlanta and Tampa have already been eliminated from the NFC South race. Carolina can as well (see above). No one in this division can be eliminated outright from the playoffs this week.

NFC West Record Conf. Division Next Five
LA Rams(0.5) 10-1 6-1 4-0 @Detroit, @Chicago, Philly, @Arizona, San Francisco
Seattle 6-5 5-3 1-2 San Francisco, Minny, @San Francisco, Kansas City, Arizona
Arizona 2-9 2-5 2-2 @Green Bay, Detroit, @Atlanta, LA Rams, @Seattle
San Francisco 2-9 1-7 0-3 @Seattle, Denver, Seattle, Chicago, @LA Rams

Clinching Scenarios: The LA Rams are on the verge of clinching the NFC West outright. ANY win or tie by the LA Rams or ANY loss or tie by Seattle clinches the NFC West for the LA Rams. This is because the LA Rams have already beaten Seattle twice and thus has the tiebreak. Seattle has an easy enough schedule that it may not cooperate, but that likely won't matter given the schedule of the LA Rams. The number in parenthesis reflects the "magic number" required for the LA Rams to clinch, i.e. 1/2 since even a tie by either will be enough.

Elimination Scenarios: Both Arizona and San Francisco have been eliminated from the NFC West. Seattle might be as well (see above). In addition, both Arizona and San Francisco can be eliminated if: 1) They lose and 2) At least three of the following teams win: Seattle, Minny, Dallas, Washington, or Carolina. Note that if San Fran loses to Seattle (likely IMHO), that puts San Fran in grave danger of elimination right there and endangers Arizona as well.

As a Seattle Fan who do you root for?

1) Root for Seattle always, always, always. Seattle is in a good position (perhaps even the pole position) to grab either the #5 or #6 seed, but that depends on taking advantage of her home heavy schedule in the home stretch along with a weaker back quarter of the schedule.

2) Root *against* Washington and Dallas. We want one and only one entry from the NFC East (and it doesn't really matter who).

3) Root for Chicago. This will put pressure on the rest of the NFC North. We want only one entry from the NFC North if possible or at most two. Clinching the NFC North for Chicago helps this.

4) Root against Minnesota and Green Bay (unless playing Minnesota). This cuts down on competition for the wild card

5) Root *against* Carolina. Again this cuts down on any possible competition.

I hope everyone finds this useful.

Looking at the playoff simulator, our chief competition for WC spots comes down to Washington, Dallas and Minnesota if games play out close to how they should. Both Dallas and Washington have decently easy schedules to come out at 9-7. Minny has a slightly tougher schedule but if they beat us they can easily end up 9-6-1. If we lose to both Minny and KC we are in trouble. Thank goodness those are home games.

So root against Washington and Dallas and Minny with all your souls.

Mad Dog":cl3t0ue4 said:

Looking at the playoff simulator, our chief competition for WC spots comes down to Washington, Dallas and Minnesota if games play out close to how they should. Both Dallas and Washington have decently easy schedules to come out at 9-7. Minny has a slightly tougher schedule but if they beat us they can easily end up 9-6-1. If we lose to both Minny and KC we are in trouble. Thank goodness those are home games.

So root against Washington and Dallas and Minny with all your souls.

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Yep, so that means we have to do a hard thing this week: Root for the Patriots.

Polaris":2wpzt455 said:

Yep, so that means we have to do a hard thing this week: Root for the Patriots.

Click to expand...

ukeface:

Mad Dog":1ajft4ia said:

Looking at the playoff simulator, our chief competition for WC spots comes down to Washington, Dallas and Minnesota if games play out close to how they should. Both Dallas and Washington have decently easy schedules to come out at 9-7. Minny has a slightly tougher schedule but if they beat us they can easily end up 9-6-1. If we lose to both Minny and KC we are in trouble. Thank goodness those are home games.

So root against Washington and Dallas and Minny with all your souls.

Click to expand...

One of Washington/Dallas is likely going to win the division, so really there is just one of the remaining teams (probably Washington) that will remain as competition.

You really see them winning 3 of their last 5 with Colt McCoy?

9-7 is a very safe bet for us to get in.

We could very well be sitting in the 5 seed after this weekend.

Hawks win
Vikes lose at the Pats (very possible)
Redskins lose at the Eagles (also very possible, especially w/their back's against the wall)

Regardless what the Pack or Panthers do, that puts us at the 5, playing at Dallas. Oh man I would love that scenario.

SoulfishHawk":1n4ttxwa said:

We could very well be sitting in the 5 seed after this weekend.

Hawks win
Vikes lose at the Pats (very possible)
Redskins lose at the Eagles (also very possible, especially w/their back's against the wall)

Regardless what the Pack or Panthers do, that puts us at the 5, playing at Dallas. Oh man I would love that scenario.

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I agree on playing Dallas....odds are in our favor, right? However, winning our next five games would put "great fear" in the rest of the league!

Hawkpower":1nx0q62q said:

Mad Dog":1nx0q62q said:

Looking at the playoff simulator, our chief competition for WC spots comes down to Washington, Dallas and Minnesota if games play out close to how they should. Both Dallas and Washington have decently easy schedules to come out at 9-7. Minny has a slightly tougher schedule but if they beat us they can easily end up 9-6-1. If we lose to both Minny and KC we are in trouble. Thank goodness those are home games.

So root against Washington and Dallas and Minny with all your souls.

Click to expand...

One of Washington/Dallas is likely going to win the division, so really there is just one of the remaining teams (probably Washington) that will remain as competition.

You really see them winning 3 of their last 5 with Colt McCoy?

9-7 is a very safe bet for us to get in.

Click to expand...

Washington has been winning with defense this year and has an fairly easy schedule. They can totally get to 9-7.

The Minny game is huge swing factor for us. We lose that and most scenarios I tried has us on the outside looking in. So 9-7 may not do it for us without some help.

I did make an effort to keep this short-ish, LOL. as my post go, I think I succeeded, but for those of you who prefer the shorter posts, I get it and I respect it, I summed up my prediction up in a sentence or two below, and left the longer version for those care to read on.

SHORT CONDENSED VERSION:
The Seahawks will run the gamut and win the 2019 Super Bowl, and continue to dominate the NFL, for as long as Pete Carroll can manage his way up and down the sidelines, and for as long as Russell The Magic Man Wilson, can throw a football.

LONGER WINDED VERSION:
I do believe that the Seahawk's will take it all the way to a Super Bowl challenge this year. Unless we really digress instead of steadily progressing as a complete package in our 5 remaining games, I can't see any reason in the world that my projection of a 5 game run, would be thought to be unsubstantiated or "Homer-ish".

Our Offense is finally everything we hoped it could be, and improving with every passing game. We still have some rookie stuff going on out there, and Shotty needs to think about schemes for Russell that account for un-challenged edge rushers looking to take Russell's head off. Maybe it's Russell that can look at the line and see that their is a loose cannon coming his way. Whatever we do, Russell needs to stop standing there like a deer in the headlights, and do something, anything, pass, scramble and pass, run, anything but stand there and get wrecked for no reason.

It's an easy argument to say that we are witnessing the reemergence of the LOB this season. Their overall stats and standings in the NFL are growing in leaps and bounds. with accumulating Sacks, Take Downs, Forced Fumbles, (we need to improve on recovering them), interceptions, effectively minimizing the yards earned by our opponents running game, and preventing more and more pass completions, in numbers that cumulatively continue to move us up in the NFL rankings with each game we play.

No surprise to anyone, I am going to make my HOMER-ISH predictions, and say we sweep through all of our remaining season games and play off games undefeated, which would surely support my argument that we are witnessing another Pete Carroll Re-Pete of 2014 in route to our next Super Bowl win, If your going to dream, dream big, There is a lot to be said for Russell Wilson and his Power of Positive Thinking and the places it can take you in life.. My Quote " Know Your Destiny and Claim it".

Go Seahawks !
2019 Super Bowl LIII Champions !
No Doubt, Always Believe, Never Surrender !

Mad Dog":2ollnxwh said:

Hawkpower":2ollnxwh said:

Mad Dog":2ollnxwh said:

Looking at the playoff simulator, our chief competition for WC spots comes down to Washington, Dallas and Minnesota if games play out close to how they should. Both Dallas and Washington have decently easy schedules to come out at 9-7. Minny has a slightly tougher schedule but if they beat us they can easily end up 9-6-1. If we lose to both Minny and KC we are in trouble. Thank goodness those are home games.

So root against Washington and Dallas and Minny with all your souls.

Click to expand...

One of Washington/Dallas is likely going to win the division, so really there is just one of the remaining teams (probably Washington) that will remain as competition.

You really see them winning 3 of their last 5 with Colt McCoy?

9-7 is a very safe bet for us to get in.

Click to expand...

Washington has been winning with defense this year and has an fairly easy schedule. They can totally get to 9-7.

The Minny game is huge swing factor for us. We lose that and most scenarios I tried has us on the outside looking in. So 9-7 may not do it for us without some help.

Click to expand...

You may be right, but I want to see them win one game with their backup first before I worry about them going 3-2 down the stretch. 8)

I really have a gut feeling it's gonna be us and Carolina. Panthers schedule is easy, Bucs, Browns, Falcons, and just need to win one of the Saints game in which they may be resting the last week. We're in a good position too, obviously.

bloodkingg":2vx2k3lz said:

I really have a gut feeling it's gonna be us and Carolina. Panthers schedule is easy, Bucs, Browns, Falcons, and just need to win one of the Saints game in which they may be resting the last week. We're in a good position too, obviously.

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Panthers have a tough schedule...I dont think they will make it. Its going to probably be Seahawks & Vikings wildcard...With the Cowboys winning the division. I would love to play against the Cowboys again. If we are lucky the Bears might beat the Saints or Rams. That way we just got to beat one of those guys & we have a rematch against the Bears for NFC championship.

Seahawks vs Patriots for the Superbowl. We win and they can stop talking about that Superbowl play once and for all.

I want to thank Polaris for doing this writeup. I for one appreciate it. Both NFC and AFC.