Hello Everyone,
Welcome to December and I hope your holiday shopping is going well. Speaking of December we are now in the thick of Playoff Scenario season and looking forward to week 14. As before I will post the NFC scenarios here in the main forum with the AFC scenario companion article as AFC Scenarios [Week 14] in the NFL general forum. Since teams are now starting to clinch and be eliminated, I will use the following indicators: * -- Homefield, z -- First Round Bye, y -- Division Winner, x -- Playoff Spot. Sometimes I will follow a y or x with a number to reflect specific seed.
NFC East
This division still looks like a dogfight between the Dallas Cowboys that have a meager one game lead over both Washington and Philadelphia and even the Giants aren't completely out of it. That said, Dallas looks to have the edge going down the stretch.
Name Record Conf. Div. Last Four
Cowboys 7-5 6-3 3-1 Philly, @Indy, Tampa, @NY Giants
Eagles 6-6 4-5 3-1 @Dallas, @LA Rams, Houston, @Washington
Washington 6-6 6-4 2-2 NY Giants, @Jax, @Tenn, Philly
NY Giants 4-8 3-7 0-4 @Washington, Tenn, @Indy, Dallas
Clinching Scenarios: NONE Even if the Cowboys were to beat the Eagles which would give the Cowboys both the head to head tiebreaker and a two game advantage with three to go, it would not be enough to clinch.
Elimination Scenarios: If Dallas wins or the Giants lose, the Giants will be eliminated from the NFC East race (the Cowboys have the head to head tiebreak).
NFC North
In spite of their stumble in week 13 vs the Giants, the Chicago Bears look to be in control but are nowhere near to wrapping this division up. The Vikings are struggling to get a wildcard spot if they can't get the division crown.
Name Record Conf. Div. Last Four
Chicago 8-4 6-2 3-1 LA Rams, Green Bay, @San Francisco, @Minny
Minnesota 6-5-1 5-3-1 2-1-1 @Seattle, Miami, @Detroit, Chicago
Green Bay 4-7-1 2-6-1 1-2-1 Atlanta, @Chicago, @NY Jets, Detroit
Detroit 4-8 2-7 1-3 @Arizona, @Buffalo, Minny, @Green Bay
Clinching Scenarios: NONE
Elimination Scenarios: NONE
NFC South
New Orleans dominates this division but an upset loss against the Cowboys in week 13 prevented an outright clinch. Still right now it's the Saints division and everyone lives in it, and only the Panthers have a (rapidly fading) chance of a wildcard.
Name Record Conf. Div. Last Four
Saints 10-2 7-2 2-1 @Tampa, @Carolina, Pittsburgh, Carolina
Carolina 6-6 4-5 1-2 @Browns, Saints, Atlanta, @Saints
Tampa Bay 5-7 4-5 2-2 Saints, @Baltimore, @Dallas, Atlanta
Atlanta 4-8 4-4 2-2 @Green Bay, Arizona, @Carolina, @Tampa
Clinching Scenarios: If the Saints win OR Carolina loses, then the Saints clinch the division.
Elimination Scenarios: NONE
NFC West
Unfortunately this has been the LA Ram's division this year, but Seattle is at least coming on strong for the playoff push. However that wasn't enough to stop the LA Rams from winning the NFC West in dominating fashion (see below). Seattle has the pole position for one of the two wildcard spots, and Arizona and San Francisco are frankly reduced to spoilers and planning for 2019.
Name Record Conf. Div. Last Four
LA Rams-y 11-1 7-1 4-0 @Chicago, Philly, @Arizona, San Francisco
Seattle 7-5 6-3 2-2 Minny, @San Francisco, Kansas City, Arizona
Arizona 3-9 3-5 2-2 Detroit, @Atlanta, LA Rams, @Seattle
Niners (e) 2-10 1-8 0-4 Denver, Seattle, Chicago, @LA Rams
Clinching Scenarios: The LA Rams by virtue of their week 13 win vs Detroit cinched the NFC West since they have the head to head tiebreak over Seattle. The LA Rams can clinch a first round bye with a win (since that would also give Chicago a loss). The LA Rams can not (yet) home field because they lost to New Orleans. Seattle is in the clear pole position for one of the two wildcard spots, but can not yet clinch it. Interesting because Seattle plays Minny who is another non-division leading winning team, this keeps teams alive into week 15 that otherwise would be eliminated.
Elimination Scenarios: San Francisco was eliminated from the playoffs because of it's loss to Seattle in week 13. Why? The loss not only give San Francisco it's tenth loss (insuring it could get no better than six wins) but also gave Seattle it's seventh win. That leaves only one playoff spot left (because the Rams clinched the west....see above), and yet Chicago has 8 wins and Minny has 6 and a half wins (remember that a tie counts as half a win). Since only one of these teams can win the NFC North, this removes the remaining playoff spot from consideration. Had Arizona lost to Green Bay in week 13, they too would have been eliminated, but they won. However that does show us the one elimination scenario in the NFC West this week: If Arizona loses (or ties), they are out of the playoffs.
So for week 14 who do we root for?
1) Root for Seattle! Always, always, always. We may be in the pole position, but we have to keep winning to stay there.
2) Root for the Saints, Browns, and Atlanta. This adds losses to Tampa, Green Bay, and Carolina. If Seattle can win as well, this generates real separation for the wild card.
3) Root for the NFC East to beat up on each other. We don't want any one team to go on a big winning streak unless it leads to winning the NFC East crown (in which case we don't care).
*whew* I hope this was useful for everyone!
Welcome to December and I hope your holiday shopping is going well. Speaking of December we are now in the thick of Playoff Scenario season and looking forward to week 14. As before I will post the NFC scenarios here in the main forum with the AFC scenario companion article as AFC Scenarios [Week 14] in the NFL general forum. Since teams are now starting to clinch and be eliminated, I will use the following indicators: * -- Homefield, z -- First Round Bye, y -- Division Winner, x -- Playoff Spot. Sometimes I will follow a y or x with a number to reflect specific seed.
NFC East
This division still looks like a dogfight between the Dallas Cowboys that have a meager one game lead over both Washington and Philadelphia and even the Giants aren't completely out of it. That said, Dallas looks to have the edge going down the stretch.
Name Record Conf. Div. Last Four
Cowboys 7-5 6-3 3-1 Philly, @Indy, Tampa, @NY Giants
Eagles 6-6 4-5 3-1 @Dallas, @LA Rams, Houston, @Washington
Washington 6-6 6-4 2-2 NY Giants, @Jax, @Tenn, Philly
NY Giants 4-8 3-7 0-4 @Washington, Tenn, @Indy, Dallas
Clinching Scenarios: NONE Even if the Cowboys were to beat the Eagles which would give the Cowboys both the head to head tiebreaker and a two game advantage with three to go, it would not be enough to clinch.
Elimination Scenarios: If Dallas wins or the Giants lose, the Giants will be eliminated from the NFC East race (the Cowboys have the head to head tiebreak).
NFC North
In spite of their stumble in week 13 vs the Giants, the Chicago Bears look to be in control but are nowhere near to wrapping this division up. The Vikings are struggling to get a wildcard spot if they can't get the division crown.
Name Record Conf. Div. Last Four
Chicago 8-4 6-2 3-1 LA Rams, Green Bay, @San Francisco, @Minny
Minnesota 6-5-1 5-3-1 2-1-1 @Seattle, Miami, @Detroit, Chicago
Green Bay 4-7-1 2-6-1 1-2-1 Atlanta, @Chicago, @NY Jets, Detroit
Detroit 4-8 2-7 1-3 @Arizona, @Buffalo, Minny, @Green Bay
Clinching Scenarios: NONE
Elimination Scenarios: NONE
NFC South
New Orleans dominates this division but an upset loss against the Cowboys in week 13 prevented an outright clinch. Still right now it's the Saints division and everyone lives in it, and only the Panthers have a (rapidly fading) chance of a wildcard.
Name Record Conf. Div. Last Four
Saints 10-2 7-2 2-1 @Tampa, @Carolina, Pittsburgh, Carolina
Carolina 6-6 4-5 1-2 @Browns, Saints, Atlanta, @Saints
Tampa Bay 5-7 4-5 2-2 Saints, @Baltimore, @Dallas, Atlanta
Atlanta 4-8 4-4 2-2 @Green Bay, Arizona, @Carolina, @Tampa
Clinching Scenarios: If the Saints win OR Carolina loses, then the Saints clinch the division.
Elimination Scenarios: NONE
NFC West
Unfortunately this has been the LA Ram's division this year, but Seattle is at least coming on strong for the playoff push. However that wasn't enough to stop the LA Rams from winning the NFC West in dominating fashion (see below). Seattle has the pole position for one of the two wildcard spots, and Arizona and San Francisco are frankly reduced to spoilers and planning for 2019.
Name Record Conf. Div. Last Four
LA Rams-y 11-1 7-1 4-0 @Chicago, Philly, @Arizona, San Francisco
Seattle 7-5 6-3 2-2 Minny, @San Francisco, Kansas City, Arizona
Arizona 3-9 3-5 2-2 Detroit, @Atlanta, LA Rams, @Seattle
Niners (e) 2-10 1-8 0-4 Denver, Seattle, Chicago, @LA Rams
Clinching Scenarios: The LA Rams by virtue of their week 13 win vs Detroit cinched the NFC West since they have the head to head tiebreak over Seattle. The LA Rams can clinch a first round bye with a win (since that would also give Chicago a loss). The LA Rams can not (yet) home field because they lost to New Orleans. Seattle is in the clear pole position for one of the two wildcard spots, but can not yet clinch it. Interesting because Seattle plays Minny who is another non-division leading winning team, this keeps teams alive into week 15 that otherwise would be eliminated.
Elimination Scenarios: San Francisco was eliminated from the playoffs because of it's loss to Seattle in week 13. Why? The loss not only give San Francisco it's tenth loss (insuring it could get no better than six wins) but also gave Seattle it's seventh win. That leaves only one playoff spot left (because the Rams clinched the west....see above), and yet Chicago has 8 wins and Minny has 6 and a half wins (remember that a tie counts as half a win). Since only one of these teams can win the NFC North, this removes the remaining playoff spot from consideration. Had Arizona lost to Green Bay in week 13, they too would have been eliminated, but they won. However that does show us the one elimination scenario in the NFC West this week: If Arizona loses (or ties), they are out of the playoffs.
So for week 14 who do we root for?
1) Root for Seattle! Always, always, always. We may be in the pole position, but we have to keep winning to stay there.
2) Root for the Saints, Browns, and Atlanta. This adds losses to Tampa, Green Bay, and Carolina. If Seattle can win as well, this generates real separation for the wild card.
3) Root for the NFC East to beat up on each other. We don't want any one team to go on a big winning streak unless it leads to winning the NFC East crown (in which case we don't care).
*whew* I hope this was useful for everyone!
