NFC Playoff Scenarios [Week 16]

Hello Everyone,

Ugh, it would seem the Grinch came in and stole Seattle's Christmas in Week 15. Not only did Seattle lose unexpectedly, but almost everything that could go wrong in week 15 for Seattle, did. Thank goodness the Saints won which kept the week from being a total disaster. To help wash out the bad taste, we have the new playoff scenarios for week 16 and thinks are looking very well indeed. As always I will discuss the NFC scenarios here and discuss the corresponding AFC scenarios in a companion article in the NFL general forums under AFC Playoff Scenarios [Week 16]. As before, I will use the following symbols:
*--Home Field Advantage
z--First Round Bye
y--Division Winner
x--Playoff Spot
(e)--Eliminated
As before I will sometimes follow such a symbol with a number to reflect a specific seed if applicable. With all that said, let's dig in.

NFC East
The Cowboys laid an egg in week 15, but facing Tampa have a strong inside lane to clinch the division. Even if the Cowboys don't win, they could still easily take the division based on who Washington and Philadelphia are playing.

Name Record Conf. Div. Last Two
Dallas 8-6 7-3 4-1 Tampa, @NY Giants
Eagles 7-7 5-6 3-2 Houston, @Washington
Washington 7-7 6-5 2-3 @Tenn, Philadelphia
NY Giants (e) 5-9 4-7 1-4 @Indy, Dallas

Clinching Scenarios: Dallas will clinch the NFC East with:
1) A win
2) A Philadelphia loss + A Washington loss

Elimination Scenarios: The NY Giants have already been eliminated from the playoffs. Philadelphia is eliminated from the NFC East with a loss. Likewise Washington is eliminated from the NFC East with a loss. Philadelphia and Washington are eliminated from the playoffs with a loss AND a Viking Win AND a Seattle win.

NFC North
The Chicago Bears have clinched this division and thanks to late season stumbles by the Saints and Rams have an outside shot at a first week bye. The Vikings are hanging on to the #6 seed but have an inside track to keep it. The rest of the division is reduced to playing spoiler.

Name Record Conf. Div. Last Two
Chicago-y 10-4 8-2 4-1 @San Francisco, @Minnesota
Minnesota 7-6-1 5-4-1 2-1-1 @Detroit, Chicago
Green Bay (e) 5-8-1 3-7-1 1-3-1 @NY Jets, Detroit
Detroit (e) 5-9 3-7 1-3 Minnesota, @Green Bay

Clinching Scenarios: Chicago has clinched the division. Chicago can not clinch better than a third seed this week. The Vikings can clinch a playoff spot with: A win + Washington loss + Philadelphia loss.

Elimination Scenarios: Chicago can be eliminated from a first round bye with a loss + LA Rams win. Minnesota can not be eliminated from the playoffs this week.

NFC South
The Saints have clinched the division and are on the verge of clinching home field. Surprisingly even with their week 15 loss, the Carolina Panthers aren't quite eliminated from the playoffs, but they are hanging by a thread. The Panthers sole hope is to get a three way tie with Seattle and Washington and have Seattle be eliminated in the strength of schedule tiebreak negating the head to head tiebreak loss EDIT: tie with Washington at 8-8 and hope that Minnesota loses somewhere along the line [Hat Tip Silverhawk]. Slim pickings indeed. Everyone else has been eliminated from playoff contention. Correction: Seattle doesn't affect Carolina's playoff chances no matter what. (Hat Tip Silverhawk)

Name Record Conf. Div. Last Two
New Orleans-y 12-2 9-2 4-1 Pittsburgh, Carolina
Carolina 6-8 4-6 1-3 Atlanta, @New Orleans
Atlanta (e) 5-9 5-5 2-2 @Carolina, @Tampa
Tampa (e) 5-9 4-6 2-3 @Dallas, Atlanta

Clinching Scenarios: The New Orleans Saints can clinch home field advantage with:
1) A win
2) A Rams loss + Chicago loss

The New Orleans Saints can clinch a first round bye with a LA Rams loss OR Chicago Loss

Elimination Scenarios: Atlanta and Tampa have already been eliminated from the playoffs. Carolina can be eliminated from the playoffs with any of the following:
1) A loss or tie
2) A Seattle win + Minnesota win
3) A Seattle win + Washington win + Eagles win
4) A Minnesota win + Washington win + Eagles win redundant
If you get the impression that Carolina's playoff chances are on life-support, you'd be right.

NFC West
The LA Rams have clinched the division but has stumbled in the stretch run. Seattle is in pole position for a playoff spot, likely the #5 seed, but was stymied in week 15 by an uncharacteristic stumble in San Francisco. San Francisco and Arizona are eliminated and reduced to spoiler roles.

Name Record Conf. Div. Last Two
LA Rams-y 11-3 7-3 4-0 @Arizona, San Francisco
Seattle 8-6 7-4 2-3 Kansas City, Arizona
San Fran (e) 4-10 2-8 1-4 Chicago, @LA Rams
Arizona (e) 3-11 3-7 2-2 LA Rams, @Seattle

Clinching Scenarios: The LA Rams can still clinch a first round bye with a win + a Chicago Loss. Seattle can not clinch a playoff spot with a simple win because Kansas City is an AFC Team. However, Seattle can clinch a playoff spot by any of the following ways:

1) A Seattle win + Washington loss + Eagles loss Edit: Seattle will beat the Eagles in a three-way or two-way tiebreak no matter what due to superior conference record. Seattle has to worry about Washington due to common opponent tiebreaks which go to Washington. Hat Tip to Silverhawk
2) A Seattle win + Minnesota loss
3) Washington loss + Eagles loss + Minnesota loss + Panthers loss Carolina can not edge Seattle for a playoff spot no matter what. Hat Tip to Silverhawk

1) A Seattle win + Washington and Eagles loss means that no NFC East team can catch Seattle. Carolina would no longer be able to, and Minny would not matter.

2) If Seattle wins AND Minnesota loses then even IF Seattle gets into a dreaded two way tiebreaker with either Philly or Washington and lose on common opponents, Seattle would still get the final spot over Minnesota no matter what.

3) This works the same way in practice as #2 except the Panthers also have to lose to reduce the possible logjam at 8-8.

It is worth noting that even if Seattle somehow doesn't clinch a playoff spot in week 16, they will if they beat Arizona no matter what (same logic as week 15) and that would also likely win the #5 seed.

So who do we root for?

This week I think it's clear:

1) As always, root for Seattle always, always, always. We might need that ninth win and I'd hate to wait to week 17 to get it.

2) Root AGAINST Washington. If they tie Seattle, they could get the common opponent tiebreak.

3) Root AGAINST the Eagles. We want to avoid logjams.

4) Root AGAINST Minnesota

5) Just to be safe, Root AGAINST Carolina.

*whew* I hope this was helpful.

I didn’t read any of this because we are making the playoffs. Arizona isn’t coming into the CLink and winning.

If Seattle beats KC and Washington loses, they clinch a playoff spot. They don’t need Philly to also lose. Philly already has a worse conference record than Seattle and that cannot change. That would be the relevant tiebreaker for those two.

Edit to add:

Additionally, if Seattle beats KC but loses to AZ and is tied with Washington at 9-7, the tie breaker will be Strength of Victory. This is because they would also be tied on the conference record and performance against common opponents (4-1).

If Seattle beats AZ, they are in, no matter what, as was stated in the OP.

BTW, as it relates to Seattle, Carolina is done. With 8 overall losses and 6 conference losses, there is no scenario that they can catch Seattle. Fuhgeddabout them.

As for the Eagles, their only relevance is if they remain with 7 losses and Seattle were to have 8. Seattle wins any scenario where they would be tied. Due to Philly having 6 conference losses. Seattle has 4 and can’t have more than 5.

Silver Hawk":2p37ohdq said:

If Seattle beats KC and Washington loses, they clinch a playoff spot. They don’t need Philly to also lose. Philly already has a worse conference record than Seattle and that cannot change. That would be the relevant tiebreaker for those two.

Edit to add:

Additionally, if Seattle beats KC but loses to AZ and is tied with Washington at 9-7, the tie breaker will be Strength of Victory. This is because they would also be tied on the conference record and performance against common opponents (4-1).

If Seattle beats AZ, they are in, no matter what, as was stated in the OP.

Click to expand...

You are correct. I will amend my post.

Silver Hawk":11mi4nk8 said:

BTW, as it relates to Seattle, Carolina is done. With 8 overall losses and 6 conference losses, there is no scenario that they can catch Seattle. Fuhgeddabout them.

As for the Eagles, their only relevance is if they remain with 7 losses and Seattle were to have 8. Seattle wins any scenario where they would be tied. Due to Philly having 6 conference losses. Seattle has 4 and can’t have more than 5.

Click to expand...

You are correct w/r/t Carolina. Basically they have to hope for a tiebreak with an NFC East team and hope Minnesota loses. I will amend.

Polaris":38h2hxzc said:

Silver Hawk":38h2hxzc said:

If Seattle beats KC and Washington loses, they clinch a playoff spot. They don’t need Philly to also lose. Philly already has a worse conference record than Seattle and that cannot change. That would be the relevant tiebreaker for those two.

Edit to add:

Additionally, if Seattle beats KC but loses to AZ and is tied with Washington at 9-7, the tie breaker will be Strength of Victory. This is because they would also be tied on the conference record and performance against common opponents (4-1).

If Seattle beats AZ, they are in, no matter what, as was stated in the OP.

Click to expand...

You are correct. I will amend my post.

Click to expand...

It can get so convoluted. I’ve spent FAR too much time looking at this in the last 2 days.

Thanks for going to the effort to put all of this on the board. I was hoping someone would, just to confirm or change my thinking.