John63
Well-known member
- Joined
- Dec 19, 2018
- Messages
- 6,651
- Reaction score
- 149
MontanaHawk05":2da0guk3 said:Whatever you guys say.
Can't call a first down run, so it MUST be a first down pass - well, that's predictable, too.
erik2690":nfz3tfyf said:MontanaHawk05":nfz3tfyf said:Whatever you guys say.
Can't call a first down run, so it MUST be a first down pass - well, that's predictable, too.
I mean kinda, it's about proportionality mainly though. And also by any metric I've ever seen an average pass is a more successful than an average run. As in like EPA per play, yards per attempt, all the sort of scoring probability stats. Obviously everything is fluid based on situation, but as an average I think that's the case. So yes you can't in reality do either at such a high frequency that it becomes too easy to cover.
John63":2fi3tc3q said:erik2690":2fi3tc3q said:MontanaHawk05":2fi3tc3q said:Whatever you guys say.
Can't call a first down run, so it MUST be a first down pass - well, that's predictable, too.
I mean kinda, it's about proportionality mainly though. And also by any metric I've ever seen an average pass is a more successful than an average run. As in like EPA per play, yards per attempt, all the sort of scoring probability stats. Obviously everything is fluid based on situation, but as an average I think that's the case. So yes you can't in reality do either at such a high frequency that it becomes too easy to cover.
No one is saying go pass first all the time, but there needs to be a better balance between starting with a pass and starting with a run, That stats clearly show this.
AgentDib":akq6w979 said:Not one of 538's better articles. Montana points out one of the flaws, which is that what is currently optimal depends on the opponent's expectations. A related error is when people argue that plays should be called more often based on their current high efficiency. Often times the efficiency is the result of a play being called rarely.
However, there is a much bigger flaw to this article in my opinion. Did you notice that running on third down in their analysis is slightly more effective than passing on third down? Why might that be the case? The reason is that if teams are running on third down it is much more likely to be a shorter distance (ie.. 3rd and 2), whereas when teams are passing on third down it's usually a much longer down and distance. This analysis could well have cause and effect completely backwards.
Field position, score differential, and down/distance should be critical pieces of any run/pass analysis. You can't just average in garbage time passing against prevent defenses with the pre-planned opening drive plays and call it a day. Similarly, a first and 10 on your 10 yard line with 2 minutes left in the half is very, very different from first and 10 on the opponent's 10 yard line with 8 minutes left.
AgentDib":399oug24 said:Not one of 538's better articles. Montana points out one of the flaws, which is that what is currently optimal depends on the opponent's expectations. A related error is when people argue that plays should be called more often based on their current high efficiency. Often times the efficiency is the result of a play being called rarely.
However, there is a much bigger flaw to this article in my opinion. Did you notice that running on third down in their analysis is slightly more effective than passing on third down? Why might that be the case? The reason is that if teams are running on third down it is much more likely to be a shorter distance (ie.. 3rd and 2), whereas when teams are passing on third down it's usually a much longer down and distance. This analysis could well have cause and effect completely backwards.
Field position, score differential, and down/distance should be critical pieces of any run/pass analysis. You can't just average in garbage time passing against prevent defenses with the pre-planned opening drive plays and call it a day. Similarly, a first and 10 on your 10 yard line with 2 minutes left in the half is very, very different from first and 10 on the opponent's 10 yard line with 8 minutes left.
John63":pwa58qo9 said:Guys this is not the only article that has said this, most MEDIOTS have, and our own HC and OC said it stop trying to ignore it. We waited to long to adjust period deal with it.
chris98251":1gi5x6z1 said:John63":1gi5x6z1 said:Guys this is not the only article that has said this, most MEDIOTS have, and our own HC and OC said it stop trying to ignore it. We waited to long to adjust period deal with it.
There fixed it for you, maybe it's because your pretty new but history has shown the Mediots are almost clueless about what makes this team work. Remember these same Mediots were the ones picking us to be 4 - 12 or 6 - 10 almost across the board. Most here seem to jump on their coat tails like yourself and think of it as gospel. Then there are those that use their own eyes, look at the roster and what Pete and John have done and continue to do and make their assessments based on what THEY see not what someone tells them.
The people that I respect more then most of them and their opinions are right here, members that are tuned in and see the day to day struggles and successes of this team and what players and coaches do day in and day out.
They typically are a minority becasue again they form an opinion based on what the see and know about the game or have expeierinced playing and coaching the game. They get shouted down by those claiming the Mediots are right, by advanced stats and all. But thats not the whole game.
Just like Billy Beane in Oakland and Money Ball, used it to evaluate players to a degree but damn I am trying to remember the last time the A 's won a world series...
Heart. desire, and willingness to sacrifice is something not on a stat sheet. It's also something the players Pete bring's in have in a large amount.
John63":3n6qu0kf said:chris98251":3n6qu0kf said:John63":3n6qu0kf said:Guys this is not the only article that has said this, most MEDIOTS have, and our own HC and OC said it stop trying to ignore it. We waited to long to adjust period deal with it.
There fixed it for you, maybe it's because your pretty new but history has shown the Mediots are almost clueless about what makes this team work. Remember these same Mediots were the ones picking us to be 4 - 12 or 6 - 10 almost across the board. Most here seem to jump on their coat tails like yourself and think of it as gospel. Then there are those that use their own eyes, look at the roster and what Pete and John have done and continue to do and make their assessments based on what THEY see not what someone tells them.
The people that I respect more then most of them and their opinions are right here, members that are tuned in and see the day to day struggles and successes of this team and what players and coaches do day in and day out.
They typically are a minority becasue again they form an opinion based on what the see and know about the game or have expeierinced playing and coaching the game. They get shouted down by those claiming the Mediots are right, by advanced stats and all. But thats not the whole game.
Just like Billy Beane in Oakland and Money Ball, used it to evaluate players to a degree but damn I am trying to remember the last time the A 's won a world series...
Heart. desire, and willingness to sacrifice is something not on a stat sheet. It's also something the players Pete bring's in have in a large amount.
Again Peta and Schotty said it, so that's it, you can try as you like to ignore it, but when your head coach, OC, and your QB all say the samethign that means that is what it is.
chris98251":17bgkp78 said:John63":17bgkp78 said:chris98251":17bgkp78 said:John63":17bgkp78 said:Guys this is not the only article that has said this, most MEDIOTS have, and our own HC and OC said it stop trying to ignore it. We waited to long to adjust period deal with it.
There fixed it for you, maybe it's because your pretty new but history has shown the Mediots are almost clueless about what makes this team work. Remember these same Mediots were the ones picking us to be 4 - 12 or 6 - 10 almost across the board. Most here seem to jump on their coat tails like yourself and think of it as gospel. Then there are those that use their own eyes, look at the roster and what Pete and John have done and continue to do and make their assessments based on what THEY see not what someone tells them.
The people that I respect more then most of them and their opinions are right here, members that are tuned in and see the day to day struggles and successes of this team and what players and coaches do day in and day out.
They typically are a minority becasue again they form an opinion based on what the see and know about the game or have expeierinced playing and coaching the game. They get shouted down by those claiming the Mediots are right, by advanced stats and all. But thats not the whole game.
Just like Billy Beane in Oakland and Money Ball, used it to evaluate players to a degree but damn I am trying to remember the last time the A 's won a world series...
Heart. desire, and willingness to sacrifice is something not on a stat sheet. It's also something the players Pete bring's in have in a large amount.
Again Peta and Schotty said it, so that's it, you can try as you like to ignore it, but when your head coach, OC, and your QB all say the samethign that means that is what it is.
How often do you buy Coach speak, they should have said neither Fluker or Sweezy should have been out there normally, no scheme can compensate for guys that can't play at the level needed.
Thats not their style however.
If they said they had beach front property in Death Valley for sale for pennies on the dollar you would say count me in as well I suppose. Because Pete and Schotty said so.