Russell Wilson’s Gaudy Third-Down Stats Present Double-Edged

John63 · Feb 13, 2019

Wilson outperformed all other quarterbacks on 3rd and three or longer, but is that necessarily a good thing for Seattle?

https://footballmaven.io/seahawks/n...ed-sword-for-seahawks-wNE93ETaqEiQGecISeSl_w/

Attyla the Hawk · Feb 13, 2019

Well it isn't bad. So does that make it good?

Seems the real issue is getting into 3rd and 3+ in the first place. Not getting enough to make it on first and second down on their own?

Then again, Seattle did pretty well in scoring this year. Not sure anything is really broken on that side of the ball.

sutz · Feb 13, 2019

I think a lot of emphasis on 3rd down is kind of misguided. Like Attyla points out, 3rd down efficiency depends a lot on how well a team does on 1st and 2d down. If you get to 3rd and short, life is a lot easier than 3rd and long. :229031_shrug:

The best drives tend to have fewer 3rd down opportunities anyway, because you're making chunk yardage on 1st/2d. It might be useful to calculate the percentage of offensive plays per each down over the length of a game or a season. Not sure if anybody has done that, but it would be interesting. I suspect the better offenses have fewer 3rd down plays than 2d down.

John63 · Feb 13, 2019

sutz":315fxd4t said:
I think a lot of emphasis on 3rd down is kind of misguided. Like Attyla points out, 3rd down efficiency depends a lot on how well a team does on 1st and 2d down. If you get to 3rd and short, life is a lot easier than 3rd and long. :229031_shrug:

The best drives tend to have fewer 3rd down opportunities anyway, because you're making chunk yardage on 1st/2d. It might be useful to calculate the percentage of offensive plays per each down over the length of a game or a season. Not sure if anybody has done that, but it would be interesting. I suspect the better offenses have fewer 3rd down plays than 2d down.

To me it shows how dependent we are on Wilson to pull our fat out of the fire, when the run, run part of our standard run, run, pass is not working well, which is alot and how good he is at doing it.

Jville · Feb 13, 2019

I think those linked stats are reflections of style, philosophy and choices in preparation. Russell Wilson has a very different style at quarterback than say a Tom Brady. And as I understand it, nobody invests more practice time in scramble drills than the Seahawks offense. Something has to make room ...... such as perhaps less time practicing screens.

I think stats offer seasonal reflections ....... not to be confused with clues as to some secret sauce.

Russell Wilson’s Gaudy Third-Down Stats Present Double-Edged

John63

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