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NFC Final Playoff Picture

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NFC Final Playoff Picture
Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:02 pm
  • UPDATE: Since the moderators were kind enough to sticky this thread, I will update this top post for the up to date NFC Playoff Picture after each regular season Sunday and Monday. Please keep referring back to the top of this post.

    -Polaris

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Hello Everyone,

    Well time for the final standings. I will link the final AFC standings at AFC Final Playoff Picture,

    * means that the team has secured home field through the playoffs
    z means the team has secured a first week bye
    y means the team has secured a division title (sometimes followed by a (#) indicating playoff seed)
    x means the team has secured a playoff spot (again sometimes followed by a (#) indicating specific seed)
    e means the team has been eliminated from the playoffs

    NFC East

    Team----------Record-----Conf---------Div-----Next Five
    y4-Philadelphia- 9-7 -------- 7-5 --------- 5-1 -
    e-Dallas--------- 8-8 -------- 7-5 --------- 5-1 -
    e-NY Giants--- 4-12 ------- 3-9 --------- 2-4 -
    e-Washington- 3-13 ------- 2-10 --------- 0-6 -


    Playoff Future: Philly wins the NFC East and will face Seattle.

    NFC South

    Team----------Record-----Conf--------Div-----Next Five
    y3-New Orleans - 13-3 -------- 9-3 ------- 5-1 -
    e-Atlanta --------- 7-9 --------- 6-6 ------- 4-2 -
    e-Tampa Bay ------ 7-9 --------- 5-7 ------- 2-4 -
    e-Carolina ---------- 5-11 --------- 2-10 ------- 1-5 -

    Playoff Future: New Orleans is the #3 seed and will face Minnesota.

    NFC North.

    Team----------Record-----Conf--------Div-----Next Five
    z--Green Bay -13-3 ------- 10-2 --------- 6-0 -
    x6-Minnesota - 10-6 -------- 7-5 --------- 2-4 -
    e-Chicago ---- 8-8 -------- 7-5 --------- 4-2 -
    e-Detroit ------ 3-12-1 ----- 2-9-1 ------- 0-6 -

    Playoff Future:

    Green Bay has the #2 seed and will get a week one bye and face the highest surviving WC seed (either Seattle/Philly/NO).

    Minnesota will face New Orleans next week at New Orleans as the #6 seed

    NFC West

    Team----------Record-----Conf--------Div-----Next Five
    *--San Fran - 13-3 ------- 10-2 --------- 5-1 -
    x5-Seattle ---- 11-5 --------- 8-4 -------- 3-3 -
    e-LA Rams -- 9-7 --------- 7-5 -------- 3-3 -
    e-Arizona ---- 5-10-1 ------ 3-8-1 ------ 1-5 -

    Playoff Future:

    San Francisco has home field and will face the lowest surviving seed from the WC weekend and has a first week bye (ie they will face Minny/Seattle/Philly)

    Seattle will face Philadelphia at Philadelphia as the #5 seed in the Wild Card round.
    Last edited by Polaris on Sun Dec 29, 2019 10:15 pm, edited 34 times in total.
    Polaris
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  • Thank you for doing these. I always enjoy them.

    My read is that the Hawks are highly likely to make the playoffs at around 95%. The Rams are the closet to catching us for the wildcard spot, but they are 3 games back. It's possible, but unlikely.

    Our chances of winning the division are much smaller at around 35%. The easiest path is to the division is to stay 1 game behind SF and then beat them in week 17; in that way, we control our own destiny. Things get much more complicated if we end with the same record as SF, but lose to them in week 17.

    This week, go Ravens (vs 49ers)!!! I suppose we should also cheer for Atlanta vs NO, the Giants vs the Packers, and the Cards vs the Rams - but these are less important. And, as always, cheer for the Browns over the Steelers, because screw the Steelers.
    JerHawk81
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  • Polaris wrote:Hello Everyone,

    I normally start making these posts starting on week 14 (Thanksgiving) but we actually have actual playoff scenarios before Turkey Day and they affect Seattle. That being so, here we go (way too soon) into the NFC playoff picture and how it affects Seattle. I will include a companion AFC Playoff Picture article in the NFL General forums called AFC Playoff Picture Week 13 [link under construction]. So far no team has secured a playoff spot. When they do, I will use the following notation:

    * means that the team has secured home field through the playoffs
    z means the team has secured a first week bye
    y means the team has secured a division title (sometimes followed by a (#) indicating playoff seed)
    x means the team has secured a playoff spot (again sometimes followed by a (#) indicating specific seed)
    e means the team has been eliminated from the playoffs

    NFC East
    This team has been the disaster zone of the NFC and the only reason that teams have not been eliminated from playoff contention is because no one wants this division. Currently it looks to be a contest between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles and neither seems to want the title.

    Team----------Record-----Conf---------Div-----Next Five
    Dallas----------- 6-5 -------- 5-3 --------- 4-0 - Buffalo, @Chicago, Rams, @Philly, Wash
    Philadelphia--- 5-6 -------- 3-5 --------- 1-1 - @Miami, NY Giant, @Wash, @NY Giant
    NY Giants------ 2-9 -------- 2-6 --------- 1-2 - Green Bay, @Philly, Miami, @Wash, Philly
    Washington---- 2-9 -------- 1-6 --------- 0-3 - Carolina, @Green Bay, Philly, NY Giants, @Dallas

    Clinching Scenarios: There are no clinching scenarios for the NFC East.

    Elimination Scenarios: The NY Giants and Washington Redskins are already eliminated from any Wild Card consideration. They are eliminated from the division race (and playoffs altogether) with 1) a loss or tie OR 2) a Dallas Win.

    NFC South
    This year this is the New Orleans' Saint's division and everyone else lives in it. That pretty much sums up the state of this division. Not as putrid as the NFC East, but not far from it.

    Team----------Record-----Conf--------Div-----Next Five
    New Orleans-- 9-2 -------- 7-2 -------- 3-1 - @Atlanta, San Francisco, Indy, @Tenn, @Carolina
    Carolina ------- 5-6 --------- 2-6 ------- 1-3 - Wash, @Atlanta, Seattle, @Indy, New Orleans
    Tampa Bay --- 4-7 --------- 4-6 ------- 2-3 - @Jax, Indy, @Detroit, Houston, Atlanta
    Atlanta --------- 3-8 --------- 3-5 ------- 2-1 - New Orleans, Carolina, @San Francisco, Jax, @Tampa Bay

    Clinching Scenarios: There is one clinching scenario. The New Orleans Saints can clinch the NFC South with a 1) Win (vs Atlanta) AND 2) A Carolina Loss or Tie. [New Orleans can also clinch with a tie if Carolina loses.] New Orleans can not clinch a playoff spot with a win and Rams loss because the Rams still hold the head to head tiebreaker.

    NFC North
    This year the NFC North looks to be a contest between the Vikings and the Packers and the Packers neither has looked all that good, but the other teams in the division have been mediocre at best.

    Team----------Record-----Conf--------Div-----Next Five
    Green Bay --- 8-3 -------- 7-2 --------- 3-0 - @NY Giants, Wash, Chicago, @Minnesota, @Detroit
    Minnesota --- 8-3 -------- 6-2 --------- 1-2 - @Seattle, Detroit, @LA Chargers, Green Bay, Chicago
    Chicago ------ 5-6 -------- 4-4 --------- 2-1 - @Detroit, Dallas, @Green Bay, Kansas City, @Minnesota
    Detroit -------- 3-7-1 ----- 2-5-1 ------- 0-3 - Chicago, @Minnesota, Tampa Bay, @Denver, Green Bay

    Clinching Scenarios: There are no clinching scenarios for the NFC North this week.

    Elimination Scenarios: Detroit is eliminated from the playoffs with a loss (Chicago win) or both a Green Bay AND Minnesota win or a tie and a Minnesota win.

    NFC West
    Overall this is probably the best division this season in the NFC. Right now both Seattle and San Francisco control their own destinies. For a while it looked like San Fran would run away with this division but it looks like the title and likely the #1 or #2 seed will go down to the wire. Right now it looks like the #1 and #5 seed will come from here between SF and Seattle.

    Team----------Record-----Conf--------Div-----Next Five
    San Fran --- 10-1 -------- 7-1 --------- 3-1 - @Baltimore, @New Orleans, Atlanta, LA Rams, @Seattle
    Seattle ------- 9-2 --------- 6-1 -------- 3-0 - Minnesota, @LA Rams, @Carolina, Arizona, San Francisco
    LA Rams ---- 6-5 --------- 4-3 -------- 0-2 - @Arizona, Seattle, @Dallas, @San Francisco, Arizona
    Arizona ------ 3-7-1 ------ 2-6-1 ------ 0-3 - LA Rams, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, @Seattle, @LA Rams

    Clinching Scenarios: There is only one clinching scenario in the NFC West this week. San Francisco can clinch a playoff spot with a Win + LA Rams Loss or tie (or a tie + LA Rams loss). Contrary to popular rumor, Seattle can not clinch a playoff spot this week because even if things break Seattle's way, the LA Rams and Seattle could still end the season tied at 10-6 and if that happened the LA Rams would hold the conference record tiebreak.

    I hope this is useful for you. See you after Turkey Day!

    Cool and thanks! The leg work is appreciated. :2thumbs:
    Sports Hernia
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  • This is the time of year Pete starts pulling things back and just does enough to win and goes as much base in everything he can so they can unleash the Unexpected in the playoffs. I hate it really because it makes things seem out of sync.
    chris98251
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  • Thank you, Polaris. Great work!
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  • Great post, and it's like x-mas lights, it's NEVER too soon.
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  • Good work, one thing I figured out is if the Seahawks and 49ers win out going into the week 17 matchup, then it will be a Sunday Night game because the NFC West and number 1 seed in NFC playoffs will be on the line.
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  • Polaris wrote:Hello Everyone,

    I normally start making these posts starting on week 14 (Thanksgiving) but we actually have actual playoff scenarios before Turkey Day and they affect Seattle. That being so, here we go (way too soon) into the NFC playoff picture and how it affects Seattle. I will include a companion AFC Playoff Picture article in the NFL General forums called AFC Playoff Picture Week 13. So far no team has secured a playoff spot. When they do, I will use the following notation:

    * means that the team has secured home field through the playoffs
    z means the team has secured a first week bye
    y means the team has secured a division title (sometimes followed by a (#) indicating playoff seed)
    x means the team has secured a playoff spot (again sometimes followed by a (#) indicating specific seed)
    e means the team has been eliminated from the playoffs

    NFC East
    This team has been the disaster zone of the NFC and the only reason that teams have not been eliminated from playoff contention is because no one wants this division. Currently it looks to be a contest between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles and neither seems to want the title.

    Team----------Record-----Conf---------Div-----Next Five
    Dallas----------- 6-5 -------- 5-3 --------- 4-0 - Buffalo, @Chicago, Rams, @Philly, Wash
    Philadelphia--- 5-6 -------- 3-5 --------- 1-1 - @Miami, NY Giant, @Wash, @NY Giant
    NY Giants------ 2-9 -------- 2-6 --------- 1-2 - Green Bay, @Philly, Miami, @Wash, Philly
    Washington---- 2-9 -------- 1-6 --------- 0-3 - Carolina, @Green Bay, Philly, NY Giants, @Dallas

    Clinching Scenarios: There are no clinching scenarios for the NFC East.

    Elimination Scenarios: The NY Giants and Washington Redskins are already eliminated from any Wild Card consideration. They are eliminated from the division race (and playoffs altogether) with 1) a loss or tie OR 2) a Dallas Win.

    NFC South
    This year this is the New Orleans' Saint's division and everyone else lives in it. That pretty much sums up the state of this division. Not as putrid as the NFC East, but not far from it.

    Team----------Record-----Conf--------Div-----Next Five
    New Orleans-- 9-2 -------- 7-2 -------- 3-1 - @Atlanta, San Francisco, Indy, @Tenn, @Carolina
    Carolina ------- 5-6 --------- 2-6 ------- 1-3 - Wash, @Atlanta, Seattle, @Indy, New Orleans
    Tampa Bay --- 4-7 --------- 4-6 ------- 2-3 - @Jax, Indy, @Detroit, Houston, Atlanta
    Atlanta --------- 3-8 --------- 3-5 ------- 2-1 - New Orleans, Carolina, @San Francisco, Jax, @Tampa Bay

    Clinching Scenarios: There is one clinching scenario. The New Orleans Saints can clinch the NFC South with a 1) Win (vs Atlanta) AND 2) A Carolina Loss or Tie. [New Orleans can also clinch with a tie if Carolina loses.] New Orleans can not clinch a playoff spot with a win and Rams loss because the Rams still hold the head to head tiebreaker.

    Elimination Scenarios: Atlanta is already eliminated from any wild-card. They are eliminated from the division with a loss (which would clinch the NFC South title for New Orleans). Tampa Bay is also eliminated with a New Orleans win and either a loss or Minnesota win.

    NFC North
    This year the NFC North looks to be a contest between the Vikings and the Packers and the Packers neither has looked all that good, but the other teams in the division have been mediocre at best.

    Team----------Record-----Conf--------Div-----Next Five
    Green Bay --- 8-3 -------- 7-2 --------- 3-0 - @NY Giants, Wash, Chicago, @Minnesota, @Detroit
    Minnesota --- 8-3 -------- 6-2 --------- 1-2 - @Seattle, Detroit, @LA Chargers, Green Bay, Chicago
    Chicago ------ 5-6 -------- 4-4 --------- 2-1 - @Detroit, Dallas, @Green Bay, Kansas City, @Minnesota
    Detroit -------- 3-7-1 ----- 2-5-1 ------- 0-3 - Chicago, @Minnesota, Tampa Bay, @Denver, Green Bay

    Clinching Scenarios: There are no clinching scenarios for the NFC North this week.

    Elimination Scenarios: Detroit is eliminated from the playoffs with a loss (Chicago win) or both a Green Bay AND Minnesota win or a tie and a Minnesota win.

    NFC West
    Overall this is probably the best division this season in the NFC. Right now both Seattle and San Francisco control their own destinies. For a while it looked like San Fran would run away with this division but it looks like the title and likely the #1 or #2 seed will go down to the wire. Right now it looks like the #1 and #5 seed will come from here between SF and Seattle.

    Team----------Record-----Conf--------Div-----Next Five
    San Fran --- 10-1 -------- 7-1 --------- 3-1 - @Baltimore, @New Orleans, Atlanta, LA Rams, @Seattle
    Seattle ------- 9-2 --------- 6-1 -------- 3-0 - Minnesota, @LA Rams, @Carolina, Arizona, San Francisco
    LA Rams ---- 6-5 --------- 4-3 -------- 0-2 - @Arizona, Seattle, @Dallas, @San Francisco, Arizona
    Arizona ------ 3-7-1 ------ 2-6-1 ------ 0-3 - LA Rams, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, @Seattle, @LA Rams

    Clinching Scenarios: There is only one clinching scenario in the NFC West this week. San Francisco can clinch a playoff spot with a Win + LA Rams Loss or tie (or a tie + LA Rams loss). Contrary to popular rumor, Seattle can not clinch a playoff spot this week because even if things break Seattle's way, the LA Rams and Seattle could still end the season tied at 10-6 and if that happened the LA Rams would hold the conference record tiebreak.

    I hope this is useful for you. See you after Turkey Day!



    Could be wrong, but isnt there a scenario where the Rams and Hawks finish 10-6 but Seattle has the better divisional record thus giving them the tiebreaker?

    Say Seattle's final win comes against AZ and the Rams loss also comes against AZ.

    Then Seattle would be 4-2 in the division and Rams would be 3-3. Or of course if Seattle beats the Rams in LA.

    I guess they still wouldnt be clinching this weekend regardless so the point stands, just wondering :D
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  • Hawkpower wrote:

    Could be wrong, but isnt there a scenario where the Rams and Hawks finish 10-6 but Seattle has the better divisional record thus giving them the tiebreaker?

    Say Seattle's final win comes against AZ and the Rams loss also comes against AZ.

    Then Seattle would be 4-2 in the division and Rams would be 3-3. Or of course if Seattle beats the Rams in LA.

    I guess they still wouldnt be clinching this weekend regardless so the point stands, just wondering :D


    There may be, but I was considering the best case for Seattle clinching this week. The best case for Seattle is if Seattle wins (naturally) and if the LA Rams lose. That would put Seattle at 10-2 and the Rams at 6-6 after week 13. If Seattle were to lose out, they'd finish with a record of 10-6 and a division record of 3-3. If the Rams were to win out after week 13, they'd also finish with a 10-6 record and a division record of 3-3 including wins against both Seattle and San Fran and Arizona once (assuming they lost against Arizona this week). The Rams have only played two divisional opponents thus far. This would mean that head to head and divisional records would be tied taking it to Conference record where the Rams would have the edge (8-4 vs 7-5).

    The fact is that because the Rams have played so few divisional games so far, they could still get a divisional record of 4-2. When Seattle plays the Rams on week 14, we'll probably be able to knock them out of the divisional race and playoffs altogether then.
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  • JerHawk81 wrote:Thank you for doing these. I always enjoy them.

    My read is that the Hawks are highly likely to make the playoffs at around 95%. The Rams are the closet to catching us for the wildcard spot, but they are 3 games back. It's possible, but unlikely.

    Our chances of winning the division are much smaller at around 35%. The easiest path is to the division is to stay 1 game behind SF and then beat them in week 17; in that way, we control our own destiny. Things get much more complicated if we end with the same record as SF, but lose to them in week 17.

    This week, go Ravens (vs 49ers)!!! I suppose we should also cheer for Atlanta vs NO, the Giants vs the Packers, and the Cards vs the Rams - but these are less important. And, as always, cheer for the Browns over the Steelers, because screw the Steelers.


    Right now, the Vikings are two full games up on the Rams for the last Wild Card spot. The Rams play at a suddenly much improved Cardinals team, then host us, then at Dallas, then at SF, then the Cardinals at home. They will be lucky to win 2 of those. They are toast.
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  • chris98251 wrote:This is the time of year Pete starts pulling things back and just does enough to win and goes as much base in everything he can so they can unleash the Unexpected in the playoffs. I hate it really because it makes things seem out of sync.


    It's sort of the reverse Belichick who plays something entirely new each week so when you get to the playoffs you have so many things to game plan for that you don't have time for it all. And then he does something new again anyways.
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  • Thanks for the work you put into the OP for this thread Polaris.

    If you want a fast way to assess each potential payoff ramification of whether X team loses or Y team wins use the playoff machine.

    http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

    A SF loss and a NO loss this weekend with the Hawks winning on Monday against Minnie would put them in the #1 seed for the NFC. If NO wins and the other results stay the same the Hawks are then the #2 seed for the NFC. Until next week.
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  • Update! The Chicago Bears just won against the Detroit Lions on Turkey day, 24-20. That raises the Chicago Bears to an overall record of 6-6, conf record of 5-4, and division record of 3-1. This keeps them alive in the division race. More importantly it drops Detroit to 3-8-1 with a conference record of 2-6-1, and a division record of 0-4. This eliminates the Detroit Lions from the playoffs. The best record they can have now is 7-8-1 and both Minny and Green Bay have 8 wins already (so no division) and the current wild card teams (Minny and Seattle) have 8+ wins so no wild card either.

    Banner: At 1pm PST, the Detroit Lions have been eliminated from the playoffs.
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  • Update! The Buffalo Bills just defeated the Dallas Cowboys 24-15. Does anyone, anyone want to win the the NFC east? Dallas falls to a record of 6-6, conference record of 5-3, and a division record of 4-0. Washington and the NY Giants are still eliminated with a loss this weekend. The eagles may be favored to win the NFC East with a ridiculously easy closing schedule compared with Dallas. Stay tuned.
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  • Update! We have our first playoff clinch! The New Orleans saints have just defeated the Atlanta Falcons by a score of 26 to 18. That clinches the NFC South Title for the New Orleans saints and also eliminates the Atlanta Falcons from the playoffs. The Saints improve to 10-2 with a conference record of 8-2 and a division record of 4-1. The Atlanta Falcons fall to 3-9 with a conference record 3-6 and a division record of 2-2. Any future win or tie by New Orleans OR any future Dallas Loss or tie will clinch no worse than the #3 seed for New Orleans.
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  • Polaris wrote:Update! The Buffalo Bills just defeated the Dallas Cowboys 24-15. Does anyone, anyone want to win the the NFC east? Dallas falls to a record of 6-6, conference record of 5-3, and a division record of 4-0. Washington and the NY Giants are still eliminated with a loss this weekend. The eagles may be favored to win the NFC East with a ridiculously easy closing schedule compared with Dallas. Stay tuned.


    Dallas only beats teams with losing records.
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  • "we actually have actual playoff scenarios before Turkey Day and they affect Seattle."

    Seems to me Seahawks playoff playoff schedule is already underway, with every game we play being somewhat a do or die event. But so long as we haven't lost the last game we play in this season, we're in it to win it.
    I love this team, but I'd feel better about our chances if we had a healthy Britt at center.
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  • WOOHOO!
    49ers suffer another last second 49 yd FG and take the loss!
    Table is set for us to take technical lead in division if we can top Vikes tomorrow night.
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  • Sherman is gimpy now.
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  • Normally I would have my Week 14 pre MNF update out this morning, but I am waiting until tomorrow because Seattle is playing on MNF. I will update that Arizona and the NY Giants have joined Detroit and Atlanta into playoff oblivion. Expect more late tonight!
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Re: Week 14 NFC Playoff Picture
Tue Dec 03, 2019 4:28 pm
  • I have decided to use this thread since it has a sticky to keep everyone up to date. Please refer to the top post regularly.
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Re: Week 14 NFC Playoff Picture
Tue Dec 03, 2019 5:20 pm
  • JerHawk81 asked:

    Polaris - I'd love to hear your thoughts on the role that week 17 will play in the NFC West. Is this correct?

    If we go into that game two games behind SF, the outcome doesn't matter to the NFC West.
    If we go into that game one game behind SF, the winner gets the NFC West.
    If we go into that game with the same record as SF, the winner gets the NFC West.
    If we go into that game one game ahead of SF, and win, we obviously get the NFC West.

    But, what if we go into that game one game ahead of SF and lose??? Here, we would have the same record, split the head-to-head games, and likely have the same division and conference records. My head hurts as I try and think this through, so I'm hoping you can shed some light...


    I gave a partial answer in the other thread, but I looked into it some more.

    Here's the skinny: If Seattle has a one game lead over San Fran going into week 17 because San Fran lost to the Rams, then Seattle will win the division no matter what.

    HOWEVER, if Seattle has a one game lead over San Fran without San Fran dropping a game to the Rams, then it comes down to Strength of Victory. In that case Seattle has the edge because we both will have had the same opponents EXCEPT for our strength of schedule games. Seattle played Minny and Philly for our SoS while San Fran played Green Bay and Washington for their. Advantage Seattle.
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Re: Week 14 NFC Playoff Picture
Wed Dec 04, 2019 1:24 pm
  • Min + Phi = 13 wins

    GB + Was = 12 wins

    Too close to call for now.
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Re: Week 14 NFC Playoff Picture
Wed Dec 04, 2019 2:30 pm
  • Wenhawk wrote:Min + Phi = 13 wins

    GB + Was = 12 wins

    Too close to call for now.


    Ugh. Too close. I guess we root against GB and Washington.
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Re: Week 14 NFC Playoff Picture
Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:35 pm
  • Wenhawk wrote:Min + Phi = 13 wins

    GB + Was = 12 wins

    Too close to call for now.


    I thought this was the way it would be as well, but the ESPN playoff calculator doesn't seem to acknowledge this tie breaker part of the equation if we lose to the Saints, but beat you guys in week 17 (if all the other games are wins)
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Re: Week 14 NFC Playoff Picture
Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:46 pm
  • It's an interesting look and thanks for posting it. But I think it's still too early. 12 games in is still too early. When you are about 14 games things come into focus a lot more of where all the playoff seeding will line. Not completely determined yet at that point but much more clear focus. There are still some wins and losses coming for teams. It's hard to predict IMO with 4 games left and some tough games for each team. Of course I understand why people want to look at it starting about now. I just think a lot will change around the NFL in the last 1/4 of the season as it always does. It will be more clear soon.
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Re: Week 14 NFC Playoff Picture
Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:47 pm
  • 94Smith wrote:
    Wenhawk wrote:Min + Phi = 13 wins

    GB + Was = 12 wins

    Too close to call for now.


    I thought this was the way it would be as well, but the ESPN playoff calculator doesn't seem to acknowledge this tie breaker part of the equation if we lose to the Saints, but beat you guys in week 17 (if all the other games are wins)


    ESPN's Playoff calculator is notoriously dodgy when it comes to handling SoV and SoS tie breakers. Also remember that the SoV and SoS is calculated at the end of the season and the Phi-Minny vs GB-Wash comparison can (and prob will) change by then.
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Re: Week 14 NFC Playoff Picture
Thu Dec 05, 2019 6:33 am
  • No way 9er, it's never too early. Playoff Machine rocks :irishdrinkers:
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  • jammerhawk wrote:Thanks for the work you put into the OP for this thread Polaris.

    If you want a fast way to assess each potential payoff ramification of whether X team loses or Y team wins use the playoff machine.

    http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

    A SF loss and a NO loss this weekend with the Hawks winning on Monday against Minnie would put them in the #1 seed for the NFC. If NO wins and the other results stay the same the Hawks are then the #2 seed for the NFC. Until next week.



    I haven't stopped playing with this thing all week.
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Re: Week 14 NFC Playoff Picture
Sat Dec 07, 2019 9:58 am
  • 94Smith wrote:
    Wenhawk wrote:Min + Phi = 13 wins

    GB + Was = 12 wins

    Too close to call for now.


    I thought this was the way it would be as well, but the ESPN playoff calculator doesn't seem to acknowledge this tie breaker part of the equation if we lose to the Saints, but beat you guys in week 17 (if all the other games are wins)


    You lose to the Saints and the Hawks win the three games prior to week 17 its over, the Hawks are in the 2 seed and the game is meaningless. This is with the Packers winning all their games, Dallas or Philly... none of it matters.
    loafoftatupu
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Re: Week 14 NFC Playoff Picture
Sat Dec 07, 2019 10:40 pm
  • Polaris wrote:
    Wenhawk wrote:Min + Phi = 13 wins

    GB + Was = 12 wins

    Too close to call for now.


    Ugh. Too close. I guess we root against GB and Washington.


    They play each other so this is at least 1 loss
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Re: Week 14 NFC Playoff Picture
Sun Dec 08, 2019 2:39 pm
  • In a no holds barred slugfest the Niners top Saints with last second FG, setting the table for SEAHAWKS to get #1 seed by winning out.
    Now to see about that "winning out" thing...
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Re: Week 14 NFC Playoff Picture
Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:31 pm
  • The first part of that winning out thing didn't happen. From first to fifth in the span of a couple hours. What a drag. Their O line was better than our D line, and their D line was better than our O line. Football is usually just as simple as that. We couldn't match their intensity and the Rams were the better team all night long. We'll have to remake ourselves before next week gets here and go through the playoffs the hard way.
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  • Win out and we have the #1 Seed because in a 3 way tie breaker with GB and NO we'd own the tie breakers.
    Wenhawk
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  • Wenhawk wrote:Win out and we have the #1 Seed because in a 3 way tie breaker with GB and NO we'd own the tie breakers.


    That's assuming that Green Bay and New Orleans wins out as well. If Green Bay doesn't win out, then we don't control our own destiny for the #1 seed.
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Re: Week 15 NFC Playoff Picture
Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:43 am
  • FROM ORIGINAL POST: Final rooting suggestions: In addition to rooting for Seattle (of course), I am afraid we all are going to have to bite something sour and root for Dallas to beat the Rams. This one thing would assist Seattle greatly this coming week.


    I don't agree with this. The Rams are almost certainly not going to catch the Seahawks. I would rather the Rams beat the Cowboys this week and stay a game within Min for the #6 seed. then the Rams will have motivation to try to beat the 49ers in Week 16. if the Rams lose to Dallas this week, they might totally fold up the tent heading into the SF game.
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Re: Week 15 NFC Playoff Picture
Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:50 am
  • JonRud wrote:FROM ORIGINAL POST: Final rooting suggestions: In addition to rooting for Seattle (of course), I am afraid we all are going to have to bite something sour and root for Dallas to beat the Rams. This one thing would assist Seattle greatly this coming week.


    I don't agree with this. The Rams are almost certainly not going to catch the Seahawks. I would rather the Rams beat the Cowboys this week and stay a game within Min for the #6 seed. then the Rams will have motivation to try to beat the 49ers in Week 16. if the Rams lose to Dallas this week, they might totally fold up the tent heading into the SF game.


    Just came here to post the same thing. Big Rams fan this week!
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Re: Week 15 NFC Playoff Picture
Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:53 pm
  • Why do we care if the Rams beat the 49ers? If we don't beat them week 17 they will get the division. I guess it would allow us to lay a stinker against Carolina or AZ
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Re: Week 15 NFC Playoff Picture
Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:54 am
  • Nothing has changed Appy, they win out they are division champs and likely a 1 or 2 seed.
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Re: Week 15 NFC Playoff Picture
Wed Dec 11, 2019 9:07 am
  • SoulfishHawk wrote:Nothing has changed Appy, they win out they are division champs and likely a 1 or 2 seed.


    Yep, and that's exactly what I'm hangin' my hat on. Only thing I would say different is I would use 'we' instead of "they". :lol:
    I get so involved and tuned in I feel like I'm member of the team. I'd bet it's same for you, Soulfish. Gawd it's hard not to look past our next 2 and go direct to the Niners game.
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Re: Week 15 NFC Playoff Picture
Wed Dec 11, 2019 9:08 am
  • I'm trying to work on not saying "we" all the time. But....when people say to me "we....what position do you play?"
    I just say I play left out. And yes, I am on the team. Always gets a strange look, but I'm a strange cat so...….
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Re: Week 15 NFC Playoff Picture
Wed Dec 11, 2019 9:52 am
  • " I'm a strange cat"
    That's a GOOD thing. I only got one gem of wisdom from the guy who raised me. It was; "You can't be just like everyone else AND be outstanding".
    I played QB, but a smashed knee ruined my dreams. I did, however, go on a few years later, to participate in an afternoon "camp" with Zorn back in the day. Did a lot of taking turns throwing the ball around. Nothing fancy but it was a memorable experience and my first ever trip to Washington. To this day I admire the way that guy played as much as any QB ever.
    Now we have "too small" Wilson and Lockette in place of Zorn and Largent. And now we're contending for division, conference, and SB championships instead of playing for relevance. 3 more games to determine where we're at for the post season this year.
    I'm resigned to near full time butterflies in the belly until we get this deal done.
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Re: Week 15 NFC Playoff Picture
Wed Dec 11, 2019 4:50 pm
  • Appyhawk wrote:" I'm a strange cat"
    That's a GOOD thing. I only got one gem of wisdom from the guy who raised me. It was; "You can't be just like everyone else AND be outstanding".
    I played QB, but a smashed knee ruined my dreams. I did, however, go on a few years later, to participate in an afternoon "camp" with Zorn back in the day. Did a lot of taking turns throwing the ball around. Nothing fancy but it was a memorable experience and my first ever trip to Washington. To this day I admire the way that guy played as much as any QB ever.
    Now we have "too small" Wilson and Lockette in place of Zorn and Largent. And now we're contending for division, conference, and SB championships instead of playing for relevance. 3 more games to determine where we're at for the post season this year.
    I'm resigned to near full time butterflies in the belly until we get this deal done.



    Holy chit...why don't you 2 get a room :?: :pukeface:
    xray
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Re: Week 15 NFC Playoff Picture
Wed Dec 11, 2019 4:56 pm
  • Easy old man, go back to your grumpy everything sucks posts. You're excellent at that. Are you really that miserable? Have you ever ONCE posted something good about the Hawks? Ever?

    Meh, have a good holiday. You're not even worth the effort. Go Hawks
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  • Polaris wrote:
    Wenhawk wrote:Win out and we have the #1 Seed because in a 3 way tie breaker with GB and NO we'd own the tie breakers.


    That's assuming that Green Bay and New Orleans wins out as well. If Green Bay doesn't win out, then we don't control our own destiny for the #1 seed.

    I think the Vikes beat them a week from Monday.
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Re: Week 15 NFC Playoff Picture
Thu Dec 12, 2019 7:42 am
  • Loving this time of year when the top teams are going against each other. So much to still be determined and the games have a lot more intensity obviously. The Playoff machine is a great tool this time of year.
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Re: Week 15 NFC Playoff Picture
Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:38 am
  • Why do people get offended if you say we? I understand im not part of the team physically. Emotionally i am. Lol

    If it wasnt for "we" the fans, athletes would need a office job. So yes "we" are part of the team.
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Re: Week 15 NFC Playoff Picture
Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:54 am
  • I don't care if they get offended or not. We is pretty common. I love when someone calls me out on it.
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Re: Week 15 NFC Playoff Picture
Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:39 am
  • I absolutely say "we" when I refer the the Hawks. I've been a fan for 30 some odd years since I was a little kid, I've been a part of this team longer than any player on the current roster for sure :mrgreen:

    I'm invested :snack:
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Re: Week 15 NFC Playoff Picture
Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:42 pm
  • SoulfishHawk wrote:I'm trying to work on not saying "we" all the time. But....when people say to me "we....what position do you play?"
    I just say I play left out. And yes, I am on the team. Always gets a strange look, but I'm a strange cat so...….


    Everyone says "we". Pretty much.
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