NFC Final Playoff Picture

Polaris · Nov 26, 2019

UPDATE: Since the moderators were kind enough to sticky this thread, I will update this top post for the up to date NFC Playoff Picture after each regular season Sunday and Monday. Please keep referring back to the top of this post.

-Polaris

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Hello Everyone,

Well time for the final standings. I will link the final AFC standings at AFC Final Playoff Picture,

* means that the team has secured home field through the playoffs
z means the team has secured a first week bye
y means the team has secured a division title (sometimes followed by a (#) indicating playoff seed)
x means the team has secured a playoff spot (again sometimes followed by a (#) indicating specific seed)
e means the team has been eliminated from the playoffs

NFC East

Team----------Record-----Conf---------Div-----Next Five
y4-Philadelphia- 9-7 -------- 7-5 --------- 5-1 -
e-Dallas--------- 8-8 -------- 7-5 --------- 5-1 -
e-NY Giants--- 4-12 ------- 3-9 --------- 2-4 -
e-Washington- 3-13 ------- 2-10 --------- 0-6 -

Playoff Future: Philly wins the NFC East and will face Seattle.

NFC South

Team----------Record-----Conf--------Div-----Next Five
y3-New Orleans - 13-3 -------- 9-3 ------- 5-1 -
e-Atlanta --------- 7-9 --------- 6-6 ------- 4-2 -
e-Tampa Bay ------ 7-9 --------- 5-7 ------- 2-4 -
e-Carolina ---------- 5-11 --------- 2-10 ------- 1-5 -

Playoff Future: New Orleans is the #3 seed and will face Minnesota.

NFC North.

Team----------Record-----Conf--------Div-----Next Five
z--Green Bay -13-3 ------- 10-2 --------- 6-0 -
x6-Minnesota - 10-6 -------- 7-5 --------- 2-4 -
e-Chicago ---- 8-8 -------- 7-5 --------- 4-2 -
e-Detroit ------ 3-12-1 ----- 2-9-1 ------- 0-6 -

Playoff Future:

Green Bay has the #2 seed and will get a week one bye and face the highest surviving WC seed (either Seattle/Philly/NO).

Minnesota will face New Orleans next week at New Orleans as the #6 seed

NFC West

Team----------Record-----Conf--------Div-----Next Five
*--San Fran - 13-3 ------- 10-2 --------- 5-1 -
x5-Seattle ---- 11-5 --------- 8-4 -------- 3-3 -
e-LA Rams -- 9-7 --------- 7-5 -------- 3-3 -
e-Arizona ---- 5-10-1 ------ 3-8-1 ------ 1-5 -

Playoff Future:

San Francisco has home field and will face the lowest surviving seed from the WC weekend and has a first week bye (ie they will face Minny/Seattle/Philly)

Seattle will face Philadelphia at Philadelphia as the #5 seed in the Wild Card round.

JerHawk81 · Nov 26, 2019

Thank you for doing these. I always enjoy them.

My read is that the Hawks are highly likely to make the playoffs at around 95%. The Rams are the closet to catching us for the wildcard spot, but they are 3 games back. It's possible, but unlikely.

Our chances of winning the division are much smaller at around 35%. The easiest path is to the division is to stay 1 game behind SF and then beat them in week 17; in that way, we control our own destiny. Things get much more complicated if we end with the same record as SF, but lose to them in week 17.

This week, go Ravens (vs 49ers)!!! I suppose we should also cheer for Atlanta vs NO, the Giants vs the Packers, and the Cards vs the Rams - but these are less important. And, as always, cheer for the Browns over the Steelers, because screw the Steelers.

Sports Hernia · Nov 26, 2019

Polaris":332gs0q7 said:
Hello Everyone,

I normally start making these posts starting on week 14 (Thanksgiving) but we actually have actual playoff scenarios before Turkey Day and they affect Seattle. That being so, here we go (way too soon) into the NFC playoff picture and how it affects Seattle. I will include a companion AFC Playoff Picture article in the NFL General forums called AFC Playoff Picture Week 13 [link under construction]. So far no team has secured a playoff spot. When they do, I will use the following notation:

* means that the team has secured home field through the playoffs
z means the team has secured a first week bye
y means the team has secured a division title (sometimes followed by a (#) indicating playoff seed)
x means the team has secured a playoff spot (again sometimes followed by a (#) indicating specific seed)
e means the team has been eliminated from the playoffs

NFC East
This team has been the disaster zone of the NFC and the only reason that teams have not been eliminated from playoff contention is because no one wants this division. Currently it looks to be a contest between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles and neither seems to want the title.

Team----------Record-----Conf---------Div-----Next Five
Dallas----------- 6-5 -------- 5-3 --------- 4-0 - Buffalo, @Chicago, Rams, @Philly, Wash
Philadelphia--- 5-6 -------- 3-5 --------- 1-1 - @Miami, NY Giant, @Wash, @NY Giant
NY Giants------ 2-9 -------- 2-6 --------- 1-2 - Green Bay, @Philly, Miami, @Wash, Philly
Washington---- 2-9 -------- 1-6 --------- 0-3 - Carolina, @Green Bay, Philly, NY Giants, @Dallas

Clinching Scenarios: There are no clinching scenarios for the NFC East.

Elimination Scenarios: The NY Giants and Washington Redskins are already eliminated from any Wild Card consideration. They are eliminated from the division race (and playoffs altogether) with 1) a loss or tie OR 2) a Dallas Win.

NFC South
This year this is the New Orleans' Saint's division and everyone else lives in it. That pretty much sums up the state of this division. Not as putrid as the NFC East, but not far from it.

Team----------Record-----Conf--------Div-----Next Five
New Orleans-- 9-2 -------- 7-2 -------- 3-1 - @Atlanta, San Francisco, Indy, @Tenn, @Carolina
Carolina ------- 5-6 --------- 2-6 ------- 1-3 - Wash, @Atlanta, Seattle, @Indy, New Orleans
Tampa Bay --- 4-7 --------- 4-6 ------- 2-3 - @Jax, Indy, @Detroit, Houston, Atlanta
Atlanta --------- 3-8 --------- 3-5 ------- 2-1 - New Orleans, Carolina, @San Francisco, Jax, @Tampa Bay

Clinching Scenarios: There is one clinching scenario. The New Orleans Saints can clinch the NFC South with a 1) Win (vs Atlanta) AND 2) A Carolina Loss or Tie. [New Orleans can also clinch with a tie if Carolina loses.] New Orleans can not clinch a playoff spot with a win and Rams loss because the Rams still hold the head to head tiebreaker.

NFC North
This year the NFC North looks to be a contest between the Vikings and the Packers and the Packers neither has looked all that good, but the other teams in the division have been mediocre at best.

Team----------Record-----Conf--------Div-----Next Five
Green Bay --- 8-3 -------- 7-2 --------- 3-0 - @NY Giants, Wash, Chicago, @Minnesota, @Detroit
Minnesota --- 8-3 -------- 6-2 --------- 1-2 - @Seattle, Detroit, @LA Chargers, Green Bay, Chicago
Chicago ------ 5-6 -------- 4-4 --------- 2-1 - @Detroit, Dallas, @Green Bay, Kansas City, @Minnesota
Detroit -------- 3-7-1 ----- 2-5-1 ------- 0-3 - Chicago, @Minnesota, Tampa Bay, @Denver, Green Bay

Clinching Scenarios: There are no clinching scenarios for the NFC North this week.

Elimination Scenarios: Detroit is eliminated from the playoffs with a loss (Chicago win) or both a Green Bay AND Minnesota win or a tie and a Minnesota win.

NFC West
Overall this is probably the best division this season in the NFC. Right now both Seattle and San Francisco control their own destinies. For a while it looked like San Fran would run away with this division but it looks like the title and likely the #1 or #2 seed will go down to the wire. Right now it looks like the #1 and #5 seed will come from here between SF and Seattle.

Team----------Record-----Conf--------Div-----Next Five
San Fran --- 10-1 -------- 7-1 --------- 3-1 - @Baltimore, @New Orleans, Atlanta, LA Rams, @Seattle
Seattle ------- 9-2 --------- 6-1 -------- 3-0 - Minnesota, @LA Rams, @Carolina, Arizona, San Francisco
LA Rams ---- 6-5 --------- 4-3 -------- 0-2 - @Arizona, Seattle, @Dallas, @San Francisco, Arizona
Arizona ------ 3-7-1 ------ 2-6-1 ------ 0-3 - LA Rams, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, @Seattle, @LA Rams

Clinching Scenarios: There is only one clinching scenario in the NFC West this week. San Francisco can clinch a playoff spot with a Win + LA Rams Loss or tie (or a tie + LA Rams loss). Contrary to popular rumor, Seattle can not clinch a playoff spot this week because even if things break Seattle's way, the LA Rams and Seattle could still end the season tied at 10-6 and if that happened the LA Rams would hold the conference record tiebreak.

I hope this is useful for you. See you after Turkey Day!

Cool and thanks! The leg work is appreciated. :2thumbs:

chris98251 · Nov 26, 2019

This is the time of year Pete starts pulling things back and just does enough to win and goes as much base in everything he can so they can unleash the Unexpected in the playoffs. I hate it really because it makes things seem out of sync.

Aussie Seahawk · Nov 27, 2019

Thank you, Polaris. Great work!

SoulfishHawk · Nov 27, 2019

Great post, and it's like x-mas lights, it's NEVER too soon.

Jayburd14 · Nov 27, 2019

Good work, one thing I figured out is if the Seahawks and 49ers win out going into the week 17 matchup, then it will be a Sunday Night game because the NFC West and number 1 seed in NFC playoffs will be on the line.

Hawkpower · Nov 27, 2019

Polaris":2ms1c2og said:
Hello Everyone,

I normally start making these posts starting on week 14 (Thanksgiving) but we actually have actual playoff scenarios before Turkey Day and they affect Seattle. That being so, here we go (way too soon) into the NFC playoff picture and how it affects Seattle. I will include a companion AFC Playoff Picture article in the NFL General forums called AFC Playoff Picture Week 13. So far no team has secured a playoff spot. When they do, I will use the following notation:

* means that the team has secured home field through the playoffs
z means the team has secured a first week bye
y means the team has secured a division title (sometimes followed by a (#) indicating playoff seed)
x means the team has secured a playoff spot (again sometimes followed by a (#) indicating specific seed)
e means the team has been eliminated from the playoffs

NFC East
This team has been the disaster zone of the NFC and the only reason that teams have not been eliminated from playoff contention is because no one wants this division. Currently it looks to be a contest between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles and neither seems to want the title.

Team----------Record-----Conf---------Div-----Next Five
Dallas----------- 6-5 -------- 5-3 --------- 4-0 - Buffalo, @Chicago, Rams, @Philly, Wash
Philadelphia--- 5-6 -------- 3-5 --------- 1-1 - @Miami, NY Giant, @Wash, @NY Giant
NY Giants------ 2-9 -------- 2-6 --------- 1-2 - Green Bay, @Philly, Miami, @Wash, Philly
Washington---- 2-9 -------- 1-6 --------- 0-3 - Carolina, @Green Bay, Philly, NY Giants, @Dallas

Clinching Scenarios: There are no clinching scenarios for the NFC East.

Elimination Scenarios: The NY Giants and Washington Redskins are already eliminated from any Wild Card consideration. They are eliminated from the division race (and playoffs altogether) with 1) a loss or tie OR 2) a Dallas Win.

NFC South
This year this is the New Orleans' Saint's division and everyone else lives in it. That pretty much sums up the state of this division. Not as putrid as the NFC East, but not far from it.

Team----------Record-----Conf--------Div-----Next Five
New Orleans-- 9-2 -------- 7-2 -------- 3-1 - @Atlanta, San Francisco, Indy, @Tenn, @Carolina
Carolina ------- 5-6 --------- 2-6 ------- 1-3 - Wash, @Atlanta, Seattle, @Indy, New Orleans
Tampa Bay --- 4-7 --------- 4-6 ------- 2-3 - @Jax, Indy, @Detroit, Houston, Atlanta
Atlanta --------- 3-8 --------- 3-5 ------- 2-1 - New Orleans, Carolina, @San Francisco, Jax, @Tampa Bay

Clinching Scenarios: There is one clinching scenario. The New Orleans Saints can clinch the NFC South with a 1) Win (vs Atlanta) AND 2) A Carolina Loss or Tie. [New Orleans can also clinch with a tie if Carolina loses.] New Orleans can not clinch a playoff spot with a win and Rams loss because the Rams still hold the head to head tiebreaker.

Elimination Scenarios: Atlanta is already eliminated from any wild-card. They are eliminated from the division with a loss (which would clinch the NFC South title for New Orleans). Tampa Bay is also eliminated with a New Orleans win and either a loss or Minnesota win.

NFC North
This year the NFC North looks to be a contest between the Vikings and the Packers and the Packers neither has looked all that good, but the other teams in the division have been mediocre at best.

Team----------Record-----Conf--------Div-----Next Five
Green Bay --- 8-3 -------- 7-2 --------- 3-0 - @NY Giants, Wash, Chicago, @Minnesota, @Detroit
Minnesota --- 8-3 -------- 6-2 --------- 1-2 - @Seattle, Detroit, @LA Chargers, Green Bay, Chicago
Chicago ------ 5-6 -------- 4-4 --------- 2-1 - @Detroit, Dallas, @Green Bay, Kansas City, @Minnesota
Detroit -------- 3-7-1 ----- 2-5-1 ------- 0-3 - Chicago, @Minnesota, Tampa Bay, @Denver, Green Bay

Clinching Scenarios: There are no clinching scenarios for the NFC North this week.

Elimination Scenarios: Detroit is eliminated from the playoffs with a loss (Chicago win) or both a Green Bay AND Minnesota win or a tie and a Minnesota win.

NFC West
Overall this is probably the best division this season in the NFC. Right now both Seattle and San Francisco control their own destinies. For a while it looked like San Fran would run away with this division but it looks like the title and likely the #1 or #2 seed will go down to the wire. Right now it looks like the #1 and #5 seed will come from here between SF and Seattle.

Team----------Record-----Conf--------Div-----Next Five
San Fran --- 10-1 -------- 7-1 --------- 3-1 - @Baltimore, @New Orleans, Atlanta, LA Rams, @Seattle
Seattle ------- 9-2 --------- 6-1 -------- 3-0 - Minnesota, @LA Rams, @Carolina, Arizona, San Francisco
LA Rams ---- 6-5 --------- 4-3 -------- 0-2 - @Arizona, Seattle, @Dallas, @San Francisco, Arizona
Arizona ------ 3-7-1 ------ 2-6-1 ------ 0-3 - LA Rams, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, @Seattle, @LA Rams

Clinching Scenarios: There is only one clinching scenario in the NFC West this week. San Francisco can clinch a playoff spot with a Win + LA Rams Loss or tie (or a tie + LA Rams loss). Contrary to popular rumor, Seattle can not clinch a playoff spot this week because even if things break Seattle's way, the LA Rams and Seattle could still end the season tied at 10-6 and if that happened the LA Rams would hold the conference record tiebreak.

I hope this is useful for you. See you after Turkey Day!

Could be wrong, but isnt there a scenario where the Rams and Hawks finish 10-6 but Seattle has the better divisional record thus giving them the tiebreaker?

Say Seattle's final win comes against AZ and the Rams loss also comes against AZ.

Then Seattle would be 4-2 in the division and Rams would be 3-3. Or of course if Seattle beats the Rams in LA.

I guess they still wouldnt be clinching this weekend regardless so the point stands, just wondering

Polaris · Nov 27, 2019

Hawkpower":3lmq1sfm said:
Could be wrong, but isnt there a scenario where the Rams and Hawks finish 10-6 but Seattle has the better divisional record thus giving them the tiebreaker?

Say Seattle's final win comes against AZ and the Rams loss also comes against AZ.

Then Seattle would be 4-2 in the division and Rams would be 3-3. Or of course if Seattle beats the Rams in LA.

I guess they still wouldnt be clinching this weekend regardless so the point stands, just wondering

There may be, but I was considering the best case for Seattle clinching this week. The best case for Seattle is if Seattle wins (naturally) and if the LA Rams lose. That would put Seattle at 10-2 and the Rams at 6-6 after week 13. If Seattle were to lose out, they'd finish with a record of 10-6 and a division record of 3-3. If the Rams were to win out after week 13, they'd also finish with a 10-6 record and a division record of 3-3 including wins against both Seattle and San Fran and Arizona once (assuming they lost against Arizona this week). The Rams have only played two divisional opponents thus far. This would mean that head to head and divisional records would be tied taking it to Conference record where the Rams would have the edge (8-4 vs 7-5).

The fact is that because the Rams have played so few divisional games so far, they could still get a divisional record of 4-2. When Seattle plays the Rams on week 14, we'll probably be able to knock them out of the divisional race and playoffs altogether then.

FlyingGreg · Nov 27, 2019

JerHawk81":1vaefyo1 said:
Thank you for doing these. I always enjoy them.

My read is that the Hawks are highly likely to make the playoffs at around 95%. The Rams are the closet to catching us for the wildcard spot, but they are 3 games back. It's possible, but unlikely.

Our chances of winning the division are much smaller at around 35%. The easiest path is to the division is to stay 1 game behind SF and then beat them in week 17; in that way, we control our own destiny. Things get much more complicated if we end with the same record as SF, but lose to them in week 17.

This week, go Ravens (vs 49ers)!!! I suppose we should also cheer for Atlanta vs NO, the Giants vs the Packers, and the Cards vs the Rams - but these are less important. And, as always, cheer for the Browns over the Steelers, because screw the Steelers.

Right now, the Vikings are two full games up on the Rams for the last Wild Card spot. The Rams play at a suddenly much improved Cardinals team, then host us, then at Dallas, then at SF, then the Cardinals at home. They will be lucky to win 2 of those. They are toast.

AirStrike · Nov 27, 2019

chris98251":3opltiqb said:
This is the time of year Pete starts pulling things back and just does enough to win and goes as much base in everything he can so they can unleash the Unexpected in the playoffs. I hate it really because it makes things seem out of sync.

It's sort of the reverse Belichick who plays something entirely new each week so when you get to the playoffs you have so many things to game plan for that you don't have time for it all. And then he does something new again anyways.

jammerhawk · Nov 27, 2019

Thanks for the work you put into the OP for this thread Polaris.

If you want a fast way to assess each potential payoff ramification of whether X team loses or Y team wins use the playoff machine.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

A SF loss and a NO loss this weekend with the Hawks winning on Monday against Minnie would put them in the #1 seed for the NFC. If NO wins and the other results stay the same the Hawks are then the #2 seed for the NFC. Until next week.

Polaris · Nov 28, 2019

Update! The Chicago Bears just won against the Detroit Lions on Turkey day, 24-20. That raises the Chicago Bears to an overall record of 6-6, conf record of 5-4, and division record of 3-1. This keeps them alive in the division race. More importantly it drops Detroit to 3-8-1 with a conference record of 2-6-1, and a division record of 0-4. This eliminates the Detroit Lions from the playoffs. The best record they can have now is 7-8-1 and both Minny and Green Bay have 8 wins already (so no division) and the current wild card teams (Minny and Seattle) have 8+ wins so no wild card either.

Banner: At 1pm PST, the Detroit Lions have been eliminated from the playoffs.

Polaris · Nov 28, 2019

Update! The Buffalo Bills just defeated the Dallas Cowboys 24-15. Does anyone, anyone want to win the the NFC east? Dallas falls to a record of 6-6, conference record of 5-3, and a division record of 4-0. Washington and the NY Giants are still eliminated with a loss this weekend. The eagles may be favored to win the NFC East with a ridiculously easy closing schedule compared with Dallas. Stay tuned.

Polaris · Nov 28, 2019

Update! We have our first playoff clinch! The New Orleans saints have just defeated the Atlanta Falcons by a score of 26 to 18. That clinches the NFC South Title for the New Orleans saints and also eliminates the Atlanta Falcons from the playoffs. The Saints improve to 10-2 with a conference record of 8-2 and a division record of 4-1. The Atlanta Falcons fall to 3-9 with a conference record 3-6 and a division record of 2-2. Any future win or tie by New Orleans OR any future Dallas Loss or tie will clinch no worse than the #3 seed for New Orleans.

DomeHawk · Nov 29, 2019

Polaris":31pgrtzs said:
Update! The Buffalo Bills just defeated the Dallas Cowboys 24-15. Does anyone, anyone want to win the the NFC east? Dallas falls to a record of 6-6, conference record of 5-3, and a division record of 4-0. Washington and the NY Giants are still eliminated with a loss this weekend. The eagles may be favored to win the NFC East with a ridiculously easy closing schedule compared with Dallas. Stay tuned.

Dallas only beats teams with losing records.

Appyhawk · Dec 1, 2019

"we actually have actual playoff scenarios before Turkey Day and they affect Seattle."

Seems to me Seahawks playoff playoff schedule is already underway, with every game we play being somewhat a do or die event. But so long as we haven't lost the last game we play in this season, we're in it to win it.
I love this team, but I'd feel better about our chances if we had a healthy Britt at center.

Appyhawk · Dec 1, 2019

WOOHOO!
49ers suffer another last second 49 yd FG and take the loss!
Table is set for us to take technical lead in division if we can top Vikes tomorrow night.

MontanaHawk05 · Dec 1, 2019

Sherman is gimpy now.

Polaris · Dec 2, 2019

Normally I would have my Week 14 pre MNF update out this morning, but I am waiting until tomorrow because Seattle is playing on MNF. I will update that Arizona and the NY Giants have joined Detroit and Atlanta into playoff oblivion. Expect more late tonight!

NFC Final Playoff Picture

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